Black Christmas II

In my book a 'Black Christmas' is when spending growth during the holiday shopping season is less then the rate of inflation. Back on July 11, I posted that a 'Black Christmas is a real possibility.' Consumer spending fell sharply in August:

On the consumer front, spending fell an unexpectedly steep 0.5 percent in August, the biggest drop since November 2001, the Commerce Department in a report on Friday ( Reuters 9/30/05)

Will consumer spending continue to fall through the end of the year? Will there be a 'Black Christmas'? A Black Christmas is looking likely now. The negative savings rate of July and August are not sustainable. Given the soaring home heating costs this winter coupled with the end of the housing bubble a Black Christmas is looking likely. An economic storm is brewing.