Thursday, September 15, 2005

Real Estate Expert And A Banker Talk B.S.

According to Alan Nevin, a longtime local San Diego real estate specialist "You will wait forever" for a bubble to burst in San Diego. Forever is a big word. Alan Nevin is being quoted by the North County Times.


The double-digit annual increases in home prices of recent years dropped last summer to about 5 percent to 7 percent a year. That transition eased what had been an unsustainable spiral down to a normal market that can go on indefinitely.

"And everybody missed it," said Nevin, director of research at San Diego's MarketPointe Realty Advisors. "People are just starting to recognize it now.

Not sure what he means. Plenty jumped in on the speculative episode. Maybe he means that people missed the slowdown.


From Oceanside to downtown San Diego, the economy is so well diversified it is nearly invulnerable to collapse, Nevin said. That diversification and the stabilized real estate market makes prospects for the region almost scarily good."

The economy is basically healthy. There don't seem to be any weak spots," Nevin said in after-talk remarks. "Right now, there's no one employer that has more than half of 1 percent of the jobs in the county."

Ok. But, I am sure there are sectors of the economy that represent close to 5% of the economy (hint you are a participant).


Asked where he would recommend buying real estate in the North County coastal area, Nevin replied: "Everywhere. There's no negatives."
Nevin is an impassioned cheerleader. Go leverage to the max. Yikes.

Nevin's talk was reassuring, said Frank Mercardante, Southwest president and chief executive."

He emphasized there is no bubble and there won't be, because of the demand for real estate here in San Diego County," Mercardante said.

Mercardante said that as a banker, he has to think of problems that would keep him up at night, and asked Nevin what would keep him up at night about the economy."

He said, 'Nothing,' " Mercardante said.

Nothing? How about offshoring, federal debt / deficit, high energy costs, security risks, consumer debt, the huge trade deficit. Mercardante spouts complete bullsh*t.