Tuesday, September 06, 2005

Hurricane Katrina Effects on the Housing Bubble

So what will Hurricane Katrina's impact be on the housing bubble? Will it be a factor in prolonging the bubble or will it help pop the bubble ?

Reasons Katrina would be a factor in prolonging the bubble:
  • hundreds of thousands of homes were destroyed. Thus supply has been reduced and hence that causes upward price pressure
  • Building materials increase in cost due to increased demand thus causing upward price pressure on new homes.
  • The Fed decides Not to raise short term interest rates this month because of increased economic risks due to the hurricane
Reasons Katrina would be a factor in popping the bubble:
  • People view housing as a more risky investment due to an enhanced awareness of natural disasters.
  • Gas prices continue to remain high. People have less money to spend on housing.
  • Economy suffers due to the hurricane.
Overall, I maintain that the hurricane is a negative factor for the housing boom.