What Type of Landing?

The housing boom has clearly ended in the vast majority of the bubble markets. We are now seeing some price depreciation. Last summer there were four basic opinions as to what will happen in the bubble markets going forward. The housing head argument that the boom will continue has proven false. So which of the remaining three options are we likely to see in the bubble markets? How much will prices fall in real dollars (inflation adjusted)?

• Boom Continues
  
• Soft Landing (0 to 20% real dollar price decline (peak price to bottom))
  
• Hard Landing (20 to 40% real dollar price decline (peak price to bottom))
• Crash Landing (40% + real dollar price decline (peak price to bottom))

I see a hard landing happening in many bubble markets, with some bubble markets experiencing a crash landing. The time period between peak real dollar price and bottom real dollar price will probably be between 4 - 8 years.