Friday, November 10, 2006

Foreclosures Increasing

Bargain Network reports that"According to Bargain Network, an online provider of real estate foreclosure, pre-foreclosure and for-sale-by-owner properties and information, third quarter foreclosure activity has increase across the United States by 14 percent compared to the second quarter this year. The Monthly U.S. Foreclosure Trend Report released yesterday by the company also held that the nation saw a 39 percent increase in foreclosure activity compared to the same quarter last year, and that in the month of September alone, there were 103,000 houses that went into the foreclosure process."

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"While September's foreclosure activity only saw a 10 percent decrease compared to the record breaking month of August, the 51 percent hike from a year ago is alarming. Both September's figures, as well as the third quarter's, showed that the foreclosure rate was one new property for every 1,222 U.S. households."

"The top five states to represent 66 percent of the foreclosure activity were Florida, California, Michigan, Texas, and Colorado."

"Florida's foreclosure rate was four times the national average with one new foreclosure filing for every 254 households. Foreclosures in the Sunshine State totaled 28,000, accounting for 27 percent of the overall nationwide foreclosure activity."

"On the opposite side of the country, California, which ranked second, had 17,000 properties enter into some state of forelcosure, with a new foreclosure rate of 1 filing for every 712 households. Compared to the previous month, the state saw a 37 percent increase and a 44 percent increase from the previous quarter."

"Nearly 9,000 foreclosures were reported entering the foreclosure process in Texas, or 1 foreclosure for every 920 households. Colorado had a total of 7,00 foreclosure filings, or 1 foreclosure for every 266 households."

"Tom Adams, president and CEO of Bargain Network, it's not a surprise that the western states top the charts due to the "predominance of negative amortization loans" where borrowers pay interest-only, without gaining any equity."

17 comments:

  1. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116313544423119550.html?mod=moj_industries

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  2. Great news!!!!

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  3. Ok, 2nd try due to forced google log in (they need to clean that up...)

    With the changing of the guard in DC, how much of a negative impact is the predicted cuts in military and security expected to impact the sales of DC homes?

    Neil

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  4. Well, as Gomer would say, surprise, surprise, surprise! Of course forsclosures are up. Duh. No more huge price increases to bail people out. If the BH's were smart they would snag themselves a good deal instead of wait for that, never coming, 50 to 70% drop in prices. Some will seize the opportunity, some will not.

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  5. MRIS Data out for the DC Area

    http://www.mris.com/reports/stats

    YOY Median Change,

    Montgomery County: +0.70%
    Fairfax County: -6.02%
    Loudoun County: -10.84%
    Fauquier County: -19.71%

    Holy Crap.

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  6. This is terribly sad for those involved. In my DC neighborhood, I'm seeing a tremendous amount of "freshly renovated" houses for rent. Many were advertised for sale for a long time. Now they're asking for rents that are way above (like, 50%) what the market will bear. No one will rent them at those prices.

    I drove past a reasonably priced rental house on North Carolina Avenue this morning that has been advertised at $1,275 for many months. I was surprised to see the house next door also "For Rent," with a hand-made sign out front. I bet it's just as cheap to rent. Those things were pushing a half-million at the peak.

    God, what a terrible time to buy.

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  7. Great article here discribing the financial suicide that comes with owning a McMansion. Thought you might get a kick out of it! :)

    http://www.violentacres.com/archives/35/mcmansions-are-for-mcidiots

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  8. anon 811, Come on now, how can you call that a "great article"? What is being said in it is nothing more than a jealous rant. There is nothing of any substance whatsover in that article. And it certainly won't help you become the homeowner you obviously want to be.

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  9. Va investor said: If the BH's were smart they would snag themselves a good deal instead of wait for that, never coming, 50 to 70% drop in prices.

    I agree people should eventually buy. But the best buying window has historically never been earlier than 2 years into a downturn. Since the buying window tends to be 2 or 3 years... there is no rush.

    And following normal trends, as you know, first there is a buildup in inventory. One shouldn't buy before people capitualate.

    Also, peak home prices come with easy credit. One should wait to buy until when the mortgage companies once again demand years of records and documents. That's always been the signal of the bottom (when credit is tightest).

    But hey, that's just history... and its about to repeat itself. And the last downturn in LA had homes drop 18% for the county, but 40% by the coast. VA will see properties drop to 5X median income when this is done. Maybe not a 50% drop in nominal prices... But to buy and throw away a few hundred thousand dollars? Ugh... not good. North VA is supposed to be one of the most overbuilt markets in the world!

    Then again, I work for a company where the rumors are out of hand. Why? People are convinced we'll move out of this area due to the disconnect between salaries and home prices. I don't exactly see government salaries paying for homes around DC anymore... Thus I do not see fast government job growth there, but rather distributed growth.

    Neil

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  10. i remember my friends telling me that nasdaq was a screaming buy at three thousand when it was on the down. one very wealthy individual was absolutely positive that the nasdaw COULD never go under three thousand...reminds of of the deinal of reality on this board.

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  11. Neil said: "I don't exactly see government salaries paying for homes around DC anymore... Thus I do not see fast government job growth there, but rather distributed growth."

    Government contractors ARE the government workforce of the present, and those salaries have skyrocketed in the last 5 - 10 years.

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  12. va_investor said: "If the BH's were smart they would snag themselves a good deal instead of wait for that, never coming, 50 to 70% drop in prices."

    A 50 to 70% drop is ridiculous, and no sane person would suggest this, and few, if any, on here have suggested that.

    An overall 20% drop? Probably. Somewhat more in certain areas? Possibly...see the continuing flood of condos coming in the downtown DC market, many in really marginal or downright scary parts of town. And after the fall is over, the prices will probably remain flat for some time. That usually what happens so far as cycles go, when there's a boom and bust, unless there is something phenomenal to give it a good boost (see Australia property market, with boom +/-2000-2003, bust +/-2003-2005, the great commodity prices, which created new boom areas, though many remain soft).

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  13. anon 12:01 said:
    "A 50 to 70% drop is ridiculous, and no sane person would suggest this, and few, if any, on here have suggested that."

    Oh yeah? Just look at the 30% to 50% drops Wannabuy is saying are coming in the blogpost just ahead of this one? ... And that is before inflation is taken into account. Numerous BHs have made claims similar to these including Robert who I think first used the 70% figure. Granted, he didn't say he thought prices would drop that far, but he said they would need to drop by 70% to make them worth buying for himself. Whatever that means ...

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  14. Lance said...
    “Numerous BHs have made claims similar to these including Robert who I think first used the 70% figure.”

    Come on Lance, have some shred of dignity. I have yet to post a predicted price drop. And if I did, it would only be to quote your drastic price cuts in your “normal cycle” rant.

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  15. Lance said...
    “Government contractors ARE the government workforce of the present, and those salaries have skyrocketed in the last 5 - 10 years.”

    AhHa! Lance has some data that shows income levels rising in step with housing cost. Now you’re talking Lance, just one thing. Please post a link indicating such.

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  16. Just look at the 30% to 50% drops Wannabuy is saying are coming in the blogpost just ahead of this one? ...

    Yep. :)

    We'll see... The buy/rent ratio is very out of whack. Did you check out the HSBC bank report on housing? Price to Income in DC has hit 6.5 while its historically been ~3.5. So yes, a 30% to 50% drop is likely. Home prices to annual rent are at about 25. Normally for DC its stuck at 16 with very little variation from that figure. With all of those condos opening up in DC... I somehow doubt rents will be higher in 2008 than they are now. ;)

    Neil

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  17. Thank you for your blog. It is very informative. Also from www.pissedconsumer.com I learned more about Bargain Network. It provides accurate and fast information on quality, pricing, and the availability of products, even low-priced used cars or hard-to-find properties. The company helps not only to buy property and vehicles but also to sell. Customers may place their advertisements on the web site. Bargain Network also provides the clients with credit reports.

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