These numbers include all housing units, including single family residences (townhouses, houses), condos and co-ops.
Northern Virginia (Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Arlington County, Alexandria City, & Falls Church City, VA (NVAR))
- Median Price: $458K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -6.36%
- Average Sales Price YoY: -4.70%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -21%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 144%
- Active Listings YoY: 52%
- Median Price: $265K
- Median Sales Price YoY: 1.92%
- Average Sales Price YoY: 3.15%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -22%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 79%
- Active Listings YoY: 64%
- Median Price: $375k
- Median Sales Price YoY: -11.76%
- Average Sales Price YoY: -10.26%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -30%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 103%
- Active Listings YoY: 48%
- Median Price: $335K
- Median Sales Price YoY: 6.65%
- Average Sales Price YoY: 7.90%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -24%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 97%
- Active Listings YoY: 95%
Montgomery County, MD
- Median Price: $432K
- Median Sales Price YoY: .70%
- Average Sales Price YoY: 1.91%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -26%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 147%
- Active Listings YoY: 56.3%
Loudoun County, VA
- Median Price: $428K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -10.84%
- Average Sales Price YoY:-10.09%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -29%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 152%
- Active Listings YoY: 30.9%
Loudoun County's peak median price of for all housing units sold was a bubblicious 506,100 reached in August of 2005. Now, in October 2006 it has fallen by 78,150 dollars or 15.4%. In real dollars this would be a decline of 18 or 19%. [A small part of this huge price decline are seasonal factors at work where prices in the non prime real estate months are reduced compared to the buying season (spring through late summer)]. In the metropolitan DC area a declining housing market is reality.
Posts
One word: WOW! A lot of folks though, "Oh, DC's different because there's only so much land there." I am surprised DC's gotten pounded so badly versus other areas. I guess people aren't willing to pay up to live in a city fraught with crime, high taxes, and huge potholes.
ReplyDeleteLance...
ReplyDeleteHow do these numbers mesh with your continual statements this last year that it was always a good time to buy and that anyone not diving head-first into an over inflated market is simply indecisive and doomed to be a renter forever?
Oh yeah but let me guess, now it is time to buy right?
lol
Lance on Nov. 9: "anyone who thinks that real estate prices are gonna drop around here is simply bonkers ... "
ReplyDeleteDavid Lerah on November 11th:
Struggling the most would be California, South Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and metro Washington, D.C., he said, where sellers need to lower their prices.
And check out that DC proper price drop!
It's pretty funny when confirmation bias makes someone even more of a shill than the paid shills.
Appreciate the statistics.
ReplyDeleteWould it be possible to include the peak figures and declines for all these markets since that's now more relevant that YoY declines?
I've been following townhouses in the Quaker Hill Development in Alexandria off Route 7 since 1/05. At that time, the cheapest townhouse one could get there was for $520 list, but those listed at that price sold for more like $540. By August '05, the cheapest ths there was selling for $580. Now there's an end unit for sale for $479, another for $489, and a non end unit for $479. And they are not selling. In all, about a 20% haircut in nominal terms from the peak, almost 25% in real terms. SFHs, e.g., in Arlington are dropping more slowly, as sellers are choosing to rent at very low prices (2,500 for a 700K house) rather than reduce asking prices below what they "deserve." Expect at least a 30% real decrease throughout No. Va.--more for condos and ths, more for the outer suburbs--before its over.
ReplyDeleteBubble heads, please quit latching on to "median price" as an indication of where you would stand if you had bought 2 years ago. First off, you'd be in your house NOW rather than still waiting for that elusive "best time to buy". Secondly, chances are that you would not need to sell and the price your house would fetch if you did sell would really be of no interest to you. When's the last time you checked to see the resale value of your car? Unless you are going to sell it, why would you car. Thirdly, you guys keep mistaking "median" value for what a single property would sell for. I'll give you the perfect example why this isn't the case. In the zip code where I sold my condo in 2005 (zip = 20008), the median price is UP by 35.48%! Does this mean that I could have sold my condo for more than a third more if I'd waited a year and a half? Of course not. All it means is that that neighborhood is tending to have more expensive homes built/renovated because the demand is there. (Eg., a developer takes a $300K condo and puts in lots of improvements and resells it at $500K.) In the District as a whole "median price is down." Is that surprising considering all the affordable condos that have been constructed over the last year? I mean, condos usually ARE cheaper than houses. I.e., the housing mix has changed in DC. In brief, don't use rising or falling median prices to justify your failure to act. The longer you wait, the longer you are throwing cash down the toilet. It's called paying rent. Smart people don't pay rent ... they collect it.
ReplyDeleteAnon November 12, 2006 8:13 PM,
ReplyDeleteI've noticed the same low rent vs. high sale price disparity in Alexandria and Arlington. Two MLS listings for the same house: rent for $2K; buy for $600,000.
What are these people thinking? Oh, wait, I know: the $2K covers the carry because the owner bought it for $300,000 four years ago. And of course it's doubled in value... right? Hmm... 20% a year for four years, hey it's actually BELOW MARKET, why aren't people lining up with contracts?
An interesting phenomenon happening right now in my Capitol Hill neighborhood (Eastern market): Houses that don't sell are being rented for much less than the asking rental prices (the house next door just rented for $2700, but the asking price was $3200); and the houses that don't rent at all (one down the street was listed for $3500, but no one rented it) are back on the market; and some neighborhood (for sale) asking prices have dropped more than $100K.
ReplyDeleteDC Housing Bubble Blues
Lance said "Is that surprising considering all the affordable condos that have been constructed over the last year?"
ReplyDeleteCheaper than a lot of houses in DC? Maybe. Affordable, not. At any rate, back up what you say with some facts, if you have, about number of condos vs houses sold, etc.
I took a look at the www.dc.gov website at the Alta at 1433 13th Street. Use the search to find the real property tax database or the real property sales database. First, I know that the database may not be completely current, so I caution that we should wait another month or two before drawing any conclusions, but its not usually too far behind for an entire building. Most closings seem to be occurring now (September in database).
PNHoffman shows 16 units unsold on its website. It will be interesting to see how many do not receive the homestead deduction, and how many close.
In my view, this is one of the many overpriced condos in the market, short on space, long on price. One unit I believe was bought for $359,00, was listed at looked at that sold at $420,000 and just nudged down to $410,000 (790 square feet). At that price, the boring one-bedroom unit is "affordable" to those who earn about $100,000 annually, but offers little no zap for those who want some zest out our their living space. Good luck at that price too. About four or five of these are for rent on Craigslist for prices from $2,800 (see pics on site of the "two-bedroom unit) to $1,850 for an efficiency. Will the rental price hold? They might but most likely if there is a free month or two to make the real price for the efficiency about $1,200.
Remember we have more big buildings now under construction that coming...Sonata (75), Madrigal (259), Dumont (375), City Vista (441), Whitman (185), Yale Steam Laundry (130), TenTenMass (165, but a few really really nice units).
Does anyone know where good data can be found on the rental market. The big building across from the Rutherford has few lights on. It was to go condo, then stopped. There is also the big building on the corner of 24th and M, also with few lights on at night, in comparison with established buildings.
Where are Abby (Dow 30,000) Joseph Cohen and Henry Blodgett on the stock market now, though they made millions for their gabbing in the past?
Comments to Lance:
ReplyDeleteWhen's the last time you checked to see the resale value of your car?
I paid cash for my car. I also only purchased a car that I could afford.
The longer you wait, the longer you are throwing cash down the toilet. It's called paying rent. Smart people don't pay rent ... they collect it.
False argument. I've set up a spreadsheet to calculate the payback on renting versus buying. At the end of 30 years, I should come out ahead 1X the original purchase price of the home buying over renting. Right now, I come out behind 0.5X.
Let's look at shorter time frames. Break even buying versus renting has historically been at 5 years. Now? Its past 30.
As I noted before, homes that I have looked at are down $1,000/day since I began looking. I cannot earn that kind of money. ;) Can you?
There is a time value to money. Taking that into account, it saids wait to buy.
*Always* think of what it would take to sell a house before buying it. That's good advice from my grandfather's generation that shouldn't have been forgotten. But it was. So now we're in a correction.
I'm curious as what Lance will be saying in 2Q 2007 when this really falls apart...
Neil
Lance said...
ReplyDelete“In brief, don't use rising or falling median prices to justify your failure to act. The longer you wait, the longer you are throwing cash down the toilet. It's called paying rent. Smart people don't pay rent ... they collect it.”
November 12, 2006 8:30 PM
Lance said...
“You're making the false assumption that lower average and median prices mean that places are going down in value.”
September 10, 2006 12:32 PM
Let’s see.
Sales are down, foreclosures up, YOY Prices down, CEOs at the UBS Home Builder Conference publicly state that they see no end to the price drop/”Death Spiral”, Inventory is high, ~70% of the population already own, Days on market numbers are increasing. Trillions of dollars of ARM are slated for re-set, NAR is publicly calling for 07’ to be a flat year.
What market indicators do you follow Lance?
David:
ReplyDeleteDid you look into the details of the HSBC report? Its notes DC is one of the top areas at risk for price declines (for multiple reasons). The summary is way down on page 95. However, the whole report is worth reading (but takes a long time).
Basic summary? The risk premium for housing has dropped far below historical norms. For the risk premium to be back at normal, home prices will decline 30% to 50%. However, they note the risk of a 1990's "undershoot" is possible. It also points out that if home prices are flat or declining there is a correlation to decreasing sales.
Thus, we can expect home sales to slow further (on an annual basis)
Warning: Pdf
http://neweconomist.blogs.com/new_economist/files/HSBC_frothfindingmission.pdf
Neil
Robert: That's easy. Lance doesn't believe in indicators. My favorite comment from him was when he informed me that being an economist and having correct facts paled compared to his insight as a homeowner.
ReplyDeleteHi-larious.
How about this market indicator, robert?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.housingtracker.net/old_housingtracker/location/DC/Washington/
Inventory has hit a 6 month low. Read em and weep. Your beloved crisis is history.
Of course inventory total inventory is at a 6 month low, the housing market is seasonal. That is why year over year numbers are produced. I happen to know several people that have taken their house off the market so that they can wait until the busy season to get the price they feel they deserve. Unfortunately there are probably a lot of other people that think the same thing.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
ReplyDelete“How about this market indicator, robert?
Inventory has hit a 6 month low. Read em and weep. Your beloved crisis is history.”
OK anon. DC had a 36%+ increase in inventory in the last 12 months. Yea, this 9% decrease (over the three month) is a big hit. (Hum, using MRIS data, I show a 47%+ increase in inventory in the last 12 months, someone double check that please)
Furthermore, forget the inventory for a second. If inventory were the only factor, “no bad time to buy” Lance might have some sort of coherent argument. However, you fail to quantify the other factors mentioned.
Inventory has hit a 6 month low. Read em and weep. Your beloved crisis is history.
ReplyDeleteIts almost winter. Winter should have a lower inventory than summer. Now, compared to 12 months ago, inventory is up. And look at those prices...
A year ago vs. now:
by 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile)
$350,000 $475,000 $674,888
$339,000 $450,000 $629,900
Nice price drops. $11k, $25k and $45k. Ouch!
Crisis history? Nope. It hasn't started. And recall homes are getting larger every year, so the $/sqft is dropping. Recall that in the past when the perceived appreciation of homes slows, so does the sales.
Whatever... this doesn't even get interesting until 2Q 2007. Then we'll see price drops. :)
Neil
Lance I can see why you would want to perpetuate a housing boom in DC--your sale of the 2BR condo in Kalorama was very profitable for you, wasn't it? And you sunk BIG MONEY into that rowhouse in Dupont too. Wow you've got to be sweating the price of that home (too bad that its assessed total value is $200K under what you paid).
ReplyDeleteNice to see your zeal for propping up DC home values includes being outraged against peaceful protests on behalf of imprisoned Kurdish dissidents too. How dare they desecrate your precious Sheridan Circle Park with their untidy protest!
You're a real piece of work. But thanks for including all the info necessary to evaluate your stake in the DC bubble.
LOL. Six months ago was May, the peak of the selling season. Inventory always goes down now, and will continue to go down until the spring. But as your own link shows, inventory is way up from a year ago at this time. (I love that old Housing Tracker site. Lots of great data.)
ReplyDeleteIMHO, the word that the bubble has popped is getting out. People who were putting their house on sale to see how much they could get are now pulling back. I also have seen several houses go up for sale, then end up with "For Rent" signs in front... those signs then stay there a long time.
We may have a dead cat bounce at some point. And I have read somewhere (forget where) that ARM loans in DC are as high or higher than last year, so the craziness is still out there. But my wild guess is that this past year's decline, and even simple things like watching flippers fail to sell on "Flip this House," is convincing Joe Sixpack that housing isn't a guaranteed investment. As a result, you may not see a lot of new flippers, and old flippers who can get out, may do so.
A Redskins fan
Lance said,
ReplyDelete"In the District as a whole "median price is down." Is that surprising considering all the affordable condos that have been constructed over the last year? I mean, condos usually ARE cheaper than houses. I.e., the housing mix has changed in DC."
MRIS said,
"Washington D.C.
From: 10/01/2006 to 10/31/2006
Condo,Coop and Ground Rent
Average Sold Price $ 393,013
Last Year Avg Sold Price $ 429,104
Average Sold % Change - 8.41 % "
"Inventory has hit a 6 month low. Read em and weep. Your beloved crisis is history."
ReplyDeleteDon'y you know this is just seasonal adjustment. The inventory will pick up next spring. You have to compare the month inventory of this year with the numbers of previous years. If next spring (Mar. April and May) inventory numbers are significantly lower than this spring numbers, your jugement may be right.
Haha, I love the panic on this board every time somebody shows you numbers that don't go along with your hoped-for collapse. Keep comforting eachother.
ReplyDeleteanon 5:46 said:
ReplyDelete"Condo,Coop and Ground Rent
Average Sold Price $ 393,013
Last Year Avg Sold Price $ 429,104
Average Sold % Change - 8.41 %"
That is correct. Like I said, there has been a lot of affordable condos going up. Just drive down Mass Ave or up U Street or even on 14th Street (though they're a bit pricer in the last location.) When prices started rising, even average condos started selling for a lot. The mass building of newer more affordable condos in the locations mentioned was the answer to filling demand for more affordable housing. It took a while for these to get built ... sold to flippers... and then finally to people to live in them. Hence prices of existing condos went up (like everything else) for a long time but have finally dipped as these new places in more marginal areas are being offered at lower prices than the other condos had risen to. That is the beauty of looking at "median" price ... You really can't compare median price from year to year unless you understand that you aren't talking about the same house or the same location. I.e. The figure has little bearing on what any particular house ... for example the house you buy ... is worth. It just means that is the median price of what is out there (or rather what "was" out there during the month being reported.) Nothing else.
Anonymous said...
ReplyDelete"Haha, I love the panic on this board every time somebody shows you numbers that don't go along with your hoped-for collapse. Keep comforting eachother."
Yea, after a 47% increase, this 9% decrease is just terrible. I guess we can expect bidding wars next month?
From MRIS:
ReplyDeleteWashington, DC Active Listings (AKA "inventory")
October, '06: 3488
October, '05: 2360
Yes, that's a 48% Year-Over-Year increase.
And as the anon poster pointed out earlier: "Remember we have more big buildings now under construction that coming...Sonata (75), Madrigal (259), Dumont (375), City Vista (441), Whitman (185), Yale Steam Laundry (130), TenTenMass (165, but a few really really nice units)."
Also, remember that the MRIS numbers only reflect the for-sale units that are listed with agents. Developers list only a few of their available units, so much of that condo inventory is "hidden", not to mention flippers who've become temporary landlords awaiting that big springtime bounce.
"Yea, after a 47% increase, this 9% decrease is just terrible. I guess we can expect bidding wars next month? "
ReplyDeleteI guess we can expect you and the others to stop falsely asserting that inventory is rising?
How about this market indicator, robert?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.housingtracker.net/old_housingtracker/location/DC/Washington/
Inventory has hit a 6 month low. Read em and weep. Your beloved crisis is history.
Better is the number of month's supply of inventory. For the District in 12/2006, it was 7.32. A year ago, it was 3.44. So, not only is inventory up compared to a year ago, sales are also down. The number of month's supply of houses has been trending upward all year.
"Better is the number of month's supply of inventory. For the District in 12/2006, it was 7.32. A year ago, it was 3.44. So, not only is inventory up compared to a year ago, sales are also down. The number of month's supply of houses has been trending upward all year. "
ReplyDeleteExcept that it's at a 6 month low. Look, nobody disputes that inventory shot up at the beginning of the year. But it stopped and has eased down since.
Anonymous said...
ReplyDelete“Except that it's at a 6 month low. Look, nobody disputes that inventory shot up at the beginning of the year. But it stopped and has eased down since.”
OK anon, you’re going to have to do a little more research. MRIS data show inventory levels/homes sold at:
Mar-2763/651
April-2959/652
May-3278/725
June-3502/764
July-3450/669
Aug-3188/664
Sept-3548/627
Oct-3488/476
http://www.mris.com/reports/stats/
Except that it's at a 6 month low. Look, nobody disputes that inventory shot up at the beginning of the year. But it stopped and has eased down since.
ReplyDeleteWrong. Take the numbers above from Robert's post. Do the math. It's not that hard, if it is, get a calculator. I'm not going to respond baseless, factless idiotic posts anymore, so buh bye.
Thanks for your analysis of the MRIS data. I'm a Realtor/Broker and I had some major doubts about the numbers, so went deep into the data to see how they created their reports. My blog will show you how the MRIS conveniently leaves off the seller subsidy (now 2%, up from 0%) and other misleading numbers.
ReplyDeletehttp://blog.FranklyRealty.com
Thanks for your post.
Frank Borges LLosa- Realtor/Broker
www.FranklyRealty.com