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Bubble Meter is a national housing bubble blog dedicated to tracking the continuing decline of the housing bubble throughout the USA. It is a long and slow decline. Housing prices were simply unsustainable. National housing bubble coverage. Please join in the discussion.
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The best way to get the housing market thriving again is to drop prices to the point where supply equals demand. Home sellers might not like it, but it's good for buyers and it's great for Realtors.
For Realtors, the best way to make more money is to sell houses quickly, and the best way to sell houses quickly is to convince the seller to drop the price.
For Realtors, the best way to make more money is to sell houses quickly, and the best way to sell houses quickly is to convince the seller to drop the price.
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I think this is roughly Mica's third "final" opportunity?
ReplyDeleteCan anyone enumerate them?
I think pretty soon they'll give you $1,000 gift certificate for just coming out. They did have a pretty decent all-you-can-eat crab feast last summer--the only reason I went to see.
ReplyDeleteA few days ago MICA was showing up on my adwords. Sounds like the "end" to me.
ReplyDeleteAnother Clarendon 1021 foreclosure:
ReplyDeleteTRUSTEE SALE 1021 North Garfield Street #1003, Arlington, VA 22201 Arlington County In execution of a Deed of Trust in the original principal amount of $381,500.00, with an annual interest rate of 9.375% ARM from Shou Hua Jeng dated April 27, 2006 recorded in the Clerk's Office of the Circuit Court of the County Of Arlington, Virginia, in Deed Book 3975, at page 1909, default having occurred in the payment of the Note thereby secured and at the request of the holder of said Note, the undersigned Substitute Trustee will offer for sale at public auction at the entrance to the Circuit Court Building, Justice Center, 1425 Courthouse Road, Arlington, Virginia, on May 25, 2007 at 2:00 o'clock pm the property described in said deed, located at the above address and briefly described as: Condominium Unit 1003, Clarendon1021, including limited common element parking space B3-104 and storage space S9-4, as shown on condominium instruments recorded in Deed Book 3854, Page 698, with an undivided interest in the common area. TERMS OF SALE: CASH: A deposit of $20,000.00, or 10% of the sales price, whichever is lower, cash or certified check, will be required at the time of sale with settlement within fifteen (15) days from the date of sale. Additional terms may be announced at the time of sale. Pursuant to the Federal Fair Debt Collection Practices Act, we advise you that this firm is a debt collector attempting to collect the indebtedness referred to herein and any information we obtain will be used for that purpose. SAMUEL I. WHITE, P.C., Substitute Trustee This is a communication from a debt collector. FOR INFORMATION CONTACT: SAMUEL I. WHITE, P.C. (2526-07/CONV) 209 Business Park Drive Virginia Beach, Virginia 23462 757-457-1460 - Call Between 9:00 a.m. and 11:30 a.m. ASAP# 850459 05/06/2007, 05/13/2007
The Mica has 150 units (I think) of which about 6-7 are still renters from when it was an apartment building. Approximately 93 units are sold and settled, with contracts out on about 20 more.
ReplyDeleteThe building is still under renovation, with all work scheduled to be done some time in June. Sales have slowed, but they believe they will sell all units by the end of the summer, especially because these units really are much nicer (better floor plan, more solid structure, nicer amenities, etc) than other condos in the immediate area (like Newell Street, Silverton, etc). Virtually none of the current buyers at the Mica are flippers (unlike the aforementioned Silverton and Newell Street condos) but are instead people who bought the units to actually live in them. For that reason, I'm not sure it's correct to call the Mica "bubblicious." Sure, if someone who lives there has to sell in the next 2-3 years (maybe longer) they will probably take a significant hit after all the fees, etc., but that's a risk you take when you buy a condo or house at any point in time. If you are purchasing a place to live in it (instead of selling at a quick profit), the Micas look a lot better than you're giving them credit for.
Another indicator that inventory is down year over year:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.housingtracker.net/old_housingtracker/location/DC/Washington/
This information is from this website, April 3, 2006:
ReplyDelete---------------------------------
Here is some more information on the Mica Condos:
There are 140 units in the building.
82 of them have sold so far [as of 4/1/06].
There are 17 studios in the building. All have sold for prices in the very low 200's.
10K for a surface parking spot. 20K for Garage Spot. Free spot for 2br/2ba, amd 3Br units. Monthly Parking Fees Apply
Free 42' Plasma TV and 1 Yr Free Cable
Condo Fees per month: Studios $240 a month, 1BR $390, 2br/1ba $459, 2br/2ba $645, 3br 2.5ba $716. Includes "Electric, Natural Gas, Water & Sewer, Pool,, Club Room w/ Billboards, Media Center, Fitness Center, Common Area Maintenance, On-Site Management, Reserves, Master Insurance Policy, Snow & Trash Removal"
Realtor Agents 3%
The sales people are pushing Interest Only ARMs 3yr, 5yr, 7yr or 10yr. There are only three companies that can do the loans George Mason, CountryWide and Wells Fargo.
---------------------------------
Assuming this information is correct, 82 condos had sold as of 4/1/2006. The above post says about 113 (probably less, since he says 'about 20') have sold by now (with 93 sold and settled). That means it took Mica Condos over 1 year to sell 31 condos (and that's with the discounts, the crab feast, etc). The above poster then says he thinks they will sell out by the end of the summer (even though 'sales have slowed'). Really, they will sell the remaining 30 condos in 4 months? With 'slower' sales? Really? (this might be possible if there is only 20 remaining condos..unclear...what's also unclear is how many of the contracts go to settlement)
It sounds to me like he has a financial interest in getting them sold. (Whether he works for the company, or bought there himself.)
This info (which appears to come form ad/promo from the Mica people), makes it sound like there are 151 condos available to the public:
ReplyDelete----------------------------------
Mica! At silver spring metro. 151 all new units deliv proj may thru nov. Studios/1br/2br/3br/ph. Spacious layouts. Parking included on 2br/ba &3 br's. Granite, stainless, wood floor option, great views, balcony's. Pool/media room/club room/fitness ctr. New windows. The list goes on. Fee includes all untilities. Great builder incentives. 42 inch plasma tv
----------------------------------
It also says that all units would be delivered by November (of last year!) I'm not sure how they are still working on units (or just "the building"?) now, in May of 2007 (according to the above poster).
Assuming this information is right, that also means they've got about 30 more units to sell. And they'll do it in the next four months, including August. Sure they will.
Anyone know how sales are going at the Crescent in Silver SPring? I think they have had 3 or 4 "final" offerings for units. I have heard of at least a dozen buyers who walked away from their purchase contracts b/c the numbers didn't work out anymore (also heard about some of the crap the salespeople were pulling with some of those buyers).
ReplyDeleteI live at the Mica and love it. It does have some kinks that we are working out with the developer, but all in all, it is a great building, and the quality of the people here makes for a great community spirit. Yes, I did my research before deciding to buy here and checked out Silverton and Aurora, and Mica wins hands-down ! The market has been soft undoubtedly, and from what I've observed of the Sales traffic, sales have come in spurts. I plan to stay a while and am pleased with the way the community and the neighborhood is shaping up.
ReplyDelete"I live at the Mica and love it. "
ReplyDeleteYou're not wanted here. All buildings are loathsome.
Another indicator that inventory is down year over year
ReplyDeleteRight, but if you look at the more up to date "new housing tracker" which encompasses the entire metro area, inventory is up.
http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/DC/Washington-Arlington-Alexandria/
It's irrelevant anyways, since sales are down up to 30% in some areas. Supply is up, demand is down. Sounds like a recipe for continued price softness.
http://www.mris.com/reports/stats/
Food for thought:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/weak-spring-may-drive-home/story.aspx?guid=%7B32193FE4%2D4EC0%2D4F9B%2D8FD2%2DD6099DF8942A%7D&siteid=yhoof
http://www.nypost.com/seven/05132007/business/harsh_realty_business_tracy_byrnes.htm
Hello Mica owner,
ReplyDeleteI just wanted to point out that we have nothing against the building, it is just that they have been bending over backwards trying to sell their remaining units since the bubble has begun to pop. They are an interesting little story in the midst of the much bigger story unfolding.
I hope you are pleased with your purchase.
"I live at the Mica and love it."
ReplyDeleteHow much a month do you pay to live there?
How much a month do you pay to live there?
ReplyDeleteI'm not the person who posted above, but here's my situation: I moved from the Blair Apartments (across the street) paying about $1500/month (1 bedroom) into a much nicer unit at the Mica, paying about $2050/month (PITI, 30-yr fixed). Yeah, I'm losing money now versus renting, but I plan on living here for a while. I did that "Is it better to buy or rent" calculator at NYTimes.com, and it said that in my situation buying will be better than renting after 3-4 years. I don't regret my decision at all.
As for the renovations to the building, the developers are finishing up some work on the pool and the parking lots, but I think they are mostly done with the units.
Sales are up yoy in most places. And the stats on the new Housingtracker site (which are less relevant to some of us because they include more far-flung areas) are converging as well - the difference yoy has been shringing. That side too will show a yoy inventory decline within a couple of weeks.
ReplyDeleteSorry your bubble party hasn't gone as planned, but you've seen the decline. It's done.
"Sales are up yoy in most places. And the stats on the new Housingtracker site (which are less relevant to some of us because they include more far-flung areas) are converging as well - the difference yoy has been shringing. That side too will show a yoy inventory decline within a couple of weeks."
ReplyDeleteWe can all access the data, why bother lying?
Sales are up yoy in most places. And the stats on the new Housingtracker site (which are less relevant to some of us because they include more far-flung areas) are converging as well - the difference yoy has been shringing. That side too will show a yoy inventory decline within a couple of weeks.
ReplyDeleteSorry, they're down. That's why I posted the link to MRIS, but obviously you're too lazy to do any research (which is why you think sales are up).
YOY sales for April, 2007 according to MRIS.com:
ReplyDeleteNVAR (Fairfax, Arlington, Falls Church, Alexandria)
-12.17%
DC
-0.92%
Prince William
-29.77%
Prince Georges
-36.03%
Montgomery
-21.75%
So, tell me how sales are up in most places? Looks like its "game over" for you!
PS. It's easy to tell who the trolls are, they can't ever provide any stats to back up their claims.
Check out the neighborhood competition:
ReplyDeletehttp://blockparty.southsilverspring.org/
"How much a month do you pay to live there?"
ReplyDeleteI am the one that posted before, and we pay about $ 2050 a month. More than renting, true, but we find it a good deal for a nicer quality of life (new hardwood floors, great view from our balcony, etc., etc.) than when I rented.
If it works out to be a wise financial decision in the future, great, but we're enjoying the here and now, and the decision we made.
DC Condo and coop sales are up:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gcaar.com/statistics/2007-home-sales/dccc0407.pdf
Silly me, that is, after all, the topic of this thread, troll.
"I did that 'Is it better to buy or rent' calculator at NYTimes.com, and it said that in my situation buying will be better than renting after 3-4 years."
ReplyDeleteThe million dollar question with these calculators is: what is the anticipated yearly appreciation of the home/condo bought?
For you to get a better deal buying then renting after only 3-4 years, you need about 3-4% YEARLY appreciation on the condo. (Assuming $300k condo vs. $1500 renting.) Personally, I think condo prices are going to be flat--if not falling--for years to come (3,4,5 years?)..but, really, who knows? (And these calculators are sort-of useless, because of this unknown appreciation. For example, if you assume just 2% yearly appreciation, it takes about 8 (!) years you need to live in it before it was worthwhile to buy.)
Well, according to Housingtracker, inventory is DOWN for the area including Adelphi, Arlington, Avondale, Bethesda, Bolling Afb, Brentwood, Camp Springs, Capitol Heights, Chantilly, Cheverly, Chevy Chase, Chillum, Colmar Manor, Cottage City, Crystal City, Dulles, Edmonston, Fairfax, Fairmount Heights, Forest Heights, Fort Mcnair, Green Meadow, Herndon, Hillcrest Heights, Hyattsville, Langley Park, Lewisdale, Marlow Heights, Morningside, Mount Rainier, North Brentwood, Oak Hill, Oxon Hill, Prince Georges Metro Ctr, Rogers Heights, Rosslyn, Seat Pleasant, Silver Hill, Silver Spring, Somerset, South Riding, Sterling, Suitland, Takoma Park, Temple Hills, Tuxedo, University Park, and West Hyattsville.
ReplyDelete"For example, if you assume just 2% yearly appreciation, it takes about 8 (!) years you need to live in it before it was worthwhile to buy."
ReplyDeleteFinancially, you mean. It's worth it to some people not to have the landlord come in while you're on the toilet.
Listen people - buying should ALWAYS be more expensive at first than renting. You own more rights to the property as an owner than you would as a renter -- the right to exclude people from the premises, alter the property, lease the property, lock in your costs, choose the length of your occupancy, etc. If those things are unimportant to you, than this may be a purely financial consideration. But they're important to some (probably most) people. Just not the weirdos on this site.
ReplyDelete"Listen people - buying should ALWAYS be more expensive at first than renting."
ReplyDeleteSure, it's just that it's way more expensive than it has been historically, even taking into account relatively low current interest rates.
Yes, the Acura costs more than the Altima. It doesn't mean an Acura should cost 100,000 dollars.
"DC Condo and coop sales are up:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gcaar.com/statistics/2007-home-sales/dccc0407.pdf
Silly me, that is, after all, the topic of this thread, troll."
And the median price is down. You seem to always forget that inconvenient truth.
"I'm not the person who posted above, but here's my situation: I moved from the Blair Apartments (across the street) paying about $1500/month (1 bedroom) into a much nicer unit at the Mica, paying about $2050/month (PITI, 30-yr fixed). Yeah, I'm losing money now versus renting, but I plan on living here for a while."
ReplyDeleteI do not find that unreasonable, as long as that 2050 also includes your condo fee.
"Financially, you mean. It's worth it to some people not to have the landlord come in while you're on the toilet."
ReplyDeleteLikewise it's worth it to a lot of people to just pick up the phone and tell the management company to come fix the broken toilet/light/whatever. For free.
If you have a landlord walking in unannounced--there are some serious issues there. No respectable place does that.
Also,
"You own more rights to the property as an owner than you would as a renter -- the right to exclude people from the premises, alter the property, lease the property, lock in your costs, choose the length of your occupancy, etc. If those things are unimportant to you, than this may be a purely financial consideration. But they're important to some (probably most) people. Just not the weirdos on this site."
Spoken like a true lawyer, or at least someone in the real estate business. First, I bet a lot of the things you listed really aren't that important to most people in the real world (they are basically theoretical--that is, I bet few people choose to buy BECAUSE of them--with the possible exception of locking in costs, although a lot of people don't even do that. Instead, I think people buy for financial reasons--because it makes financial sense in the long run.) But I'll grant that some of these things mean that owning should be more expensive than renting. The question, of course, is how much.
Are you implying that these things mean the prices (I'd argue high prices) for buying right now make perfect sense? Please.
We just disagree, 1:08. I am sure most people do buy because of the additional rights you have to your home as an owner. I know the conventional wisdom here is that all homeowners are just in it for some kind of get-rich-quick scheme, but you should consider that you might be wrong.
ReplyDelete"
ReplyDeleteSilly me, that is, after all, the topic of this thread, troll."
And the median price is down. You seem to always forget that inconvenient truth. "
And you keep forgetting the dance of joy you did when inventory went up. More inventory means lower prices, less inventory means higher prices - it's a forward-looking indicator.
But you know that. You're just being snyde.
"We just disagree, 1:08. I am sure most people do buy because of the additional rights you have to your home as an owner."
ReplyDeleteThis response is just bizarre. In one respect I guess you're right, though, we just disagree. If you really think most people buy houses in order to get theoretical property rights, rather than buying for practical financial reasons, who am I to convince you otherwise? (Other than an appeal to pure common sense.)
"I know the conventional wisdom here is that all homeowners are just in it for some kind of get-rich-quick scheme, but you should consider that you might be wrong."
Another bizarre response. Of course not all homeowners are in it for some kind of get-rich-quick scheme. In fact, I'd HIGHLY recommend buying for anyone who is planning to stay in his or her place for 5 (possibly more) years (whether that's because you want to put down roots, possibly raise a family, or are committed to a job/area you love), THEN YOU SHOULD DEFINITELY BUY! If you're not reasonably sure you are going to be living in your place for more than 5 years (and I would argue more years--maybe 8?--, given the price escallation that the market has seen), I think renting is probably a better option. That's just my opinion. Which, by the way, had been the conventional wisdom until the crazy real estate market of a couple years ago.
Based on my reading of this blog over the last couple years, I think most people here would agree with me.
DC Condo and coop sales are up:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gcaar.com/statistics/2007-home-sales/dccc0407.pdf
Silly me, that is, after all, the topic of this thread, troll.
Actually, the topic of this thread is the MICA condos in Silver Spring.
Existing inventory of condos is useless, considering that the vast amount of condos entering the DC market this year are new construction.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/15/AR2007051502163.html
There's a 3.4 year supply of condos when you consider new construction. The decline is just beginning. Put your money where your mouth is and hurry and buy so you can lock in your loss.
""We just disagree, 1:08. I am sure most people do buy because of the additional rights you have to your home as an owner."
ReplyDeleteThis response is just bizarre. In one respect I guess you're right, though, we just disagree. If you really think most people buy houses in order to get theoretical property rights, rather than buying for practical financial reasons, who am I to convince you otherwise? (Other than an appeal to pure common sense.) "
Common sense tells me that most people like to own their own home. I find YOUR response bizzare. I don't even think your response reflects the conventional wisdom of bubbleworshipers on this site -- they're just priced out of the market. You really don't see why somebody would prefer to own their own home.
"Common sense tells me that most people like to own their own home."
ReplyDeleteI agree. I'm not sure what you mean by this. We're talking about why people choose to buy homes.
"I find YOUR response bizzare."
Ummmm. Ok.
"I don't even think your response reflects the conventional wisdom of bubbleworshipers on this site --they're just priced out of the market."
I'll take a stab at what I think this means: by 'my response' you mean my belief that people buy houses primarily for financial reasons--they know it makes sound financial sense for their long term future (or even that many people buy in the hopes of making a quick profit). You think this doesn't reflect most of the 'bubbleworshiper's' views (presumambly, their views are that people buy houses primarily in order to gain property rights in that house/property--they do it in order to have the right to exclude people/alter the property/subdivide the property, etc.) The reason why most bubbleworshipers haven't bought yet to get these rights is that they are priced out of the market.
First, I'll fully grant that there is some portion of the population that is very, very concerned about its property rights. They are well aware of their right to 'exclude' people from their property, or alter their property in whatever way they want (more or less). (My guess is that these people are prone to sitting on their front porches, with their shotguns in hand, ready to defend these rights.) They bought their house almost entirely for the rights of being a property owner. (Vestiges of the days when only property owners could vote.) The fact that buying their property was a good financial move is, more or less, irrelvant to them. And they gave no real thought at all to how being mortgage free 30 years from now might be good for them, for example, if they have a lower income due to retirement.
Then, there are other people for whom buying a place is purely a financial decision. They couldn't care less about their theoretical property rights, and are only concerned about when they can either cash out, or use their equity to buy a bigger/better place. This is anyone who buys a house as an investment.
Now do most people fall somewhere inbetween? Possibly. Are most people at least aware of the fact that when they own their own home, they have more rights with that property then someone who rents? Almost certainly. But the original question is why most people primarily buy homes. All I'm saying is that, while people may be aware of these rights, it isn't the primary motivating factor. When John Q. Public is thinking about buying that condo, he's buying mostly because he doesn't 'want to throw money away paying rent.' Not becuase he really wants to be able to exclude the landlord. Likewise, when Mr. and Mrs. John Q. Public is buying a home to live in, it's because they know that they'll be mortgage free one day, and that will put them in a better financial place then they would be otherwise.
Now, I have no specific study, or reference, to point to that shows the group of people buying primiarily for financial reasons is much, much, much larger than the group of people who just want those property rights. But I a gut feeling that's true. Maybe I'm wrong. But I don't think so.
"You really don't see why somebody would prefer to own their own home."
Sure, because it's a good decision.
Yeah, I understood you the first time you said it. You're still wrong.
ReplyDeleteAnon 2:05 said:
ReplyDelete"When John Q. Public is thinking about buying that condo, he's buying mostly because he doesn't 'want to throw money away paying rent.'"
You're really odd if you really believe this. Alternatively, perhaps you're just proving my assertion that most bubbleheads are wannabe flippers and don't realize how their true passion of flipping (i.e., making money off the roof over their heads) will ultimately prevent them from enjoying the true benefits of being a homeowner.
Most people do NOT buy a house or condo because they don't 'want to throw money away paying rent.' Most people buy a house or condo because they understand that being a homeowner is a milestone in life in that it changes one's responsibilities, commitments, and status vis a vis the community they live and work in. In brief, homeowners are the community in which they live, renters are background noise just along for the ride ... unable or unwilling to commit to that society for any number of reasons.
"Yeah, I understood you the first time you said it. You're still wrong."
ReplyDeleteUmmmm, ok. Well that explains it.
Lance, you've entered the debate proposing a third reason why people buy homes. That is, the possibilities so far are:
ReplyDelete1) Because it's a good financial move.
2) Because you'll have more property rights as an owner.
3) Because you want to be part of a community.
Yes, a lot of people want to buy a home for the third reason. (Note, they've also probably decided they want to live in that community for a number of years, so it works well with the first reason.)
"Most people buy a house or condo because they understand that being a homeowner is a milestone in life in that it changes one's responsibilities, commitments, and status vis a vis the community they live and work in."
ReplyDeleteHAAAAAAAAA! David, can you please, please, please, please start screening that troll out?
Thanks.
"Most people buy a house or condo because they understand that being a homeowner is a milestone in life in that it changes one's responsibilities, commitments, and status vis a vis the community they live and work in."
ReplyDeleteTranslation - some poor losers buy a house out of some desperate and eventually fruitless search for status.
There are great reasons to buy a house. But buying a house out of status-seeking is truly pathetic and sad. Do not lead your life this way if you want to be happy or successful.
Lance said...
ReplyDelete“Most people buy a house or condo because they understand that being a homeowner is a milestone in life in that it changes one's responsibilities, commitments, and status vis a vis the community they live and work in.”
“Lance”, are you referring to the “milestone” of foreclosure that millions of sub-primes are facing?
Lance said...
“In brief, homeowners are the community in which they live, renters are background noise just along for the ride ... unable or unwilling to commit to that society for any number of reasons.”
So, it’s now an obligation to society to own a home? What obligation does society have to those who bought, and now are facing foreclosure? Should I go and purchase a home and just wait for some government hand out? After all, that would be economically advantageous of me to do so. Given that at least one state (Massachusetts) has placed a moratorium on foreclosures, one could possibly live rent/mortgage free, possibly for quite some time.
"In brief, homeowners are the community in which they live, renters are background noise just along for the ride ... unable or unwilling to commit to that society for any number of reasons."
ReplyDeletelol
That is the spirit lance!
If you can't defend your points about where housing values are going and it "never being a bad time to buy" you can always fall back on stupid subjective BS.
Anyone here can look up your NUMEROUS posts where you try to argue in favor of buying on financial grounds. When you first started posting here you went on and on and on about buying a house being a hedge against inflation.
How are those bidding wars in May going?
lol
Mica Condos has the back page on the condo insert in today's Express. (Including a--smallish--banner at the top saying open house Sat/Sun 12-3pm.)
ReplyDeleteThey seemed to have dropped the "closeout" and "final opportunity" language.
Based on their full page ad on the back of today's Express, looks like they didn't sell out by the end of last summer. (That is, some 6 months ago).
ReplyDeleteIn fact, they still haven't sold out. Ouch.