"The media regularly turns to him for real estate quotes," said David Jackson, who created the hypercritical David Lereah Watch blog because he believed the economist was churning the housing market. "Lereah tells half-truths and manipulates facts and figures. He cannot be trusted, as he is a paid shill."Nice to see an independent blogger getting quoted in the mainstream media. :-)
Monday, May 07, 2007
Quoted in the Chicago Tribune
In a Chicago Tribune article, I was quoted:
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I thought you noticed this when you quoted a piece of their article the other day or maybe it was just somebody leaving a comment on your "Watch" blog. Either way congrats on getting more coverage for exposing the paid shill.
ReplyDeleteI read that article. After I got done reading Lereah's drivel my head spun around and pea soup shot out of my mouth.
ReplyDeleteA little off topic but worth mentioning
ReplyDeleteOn Nightly Business Report at the end of the show there was a commentary from Bernard Baumbul
Another talking head who has his head up his a$$
His quote:
Recession is highly unkilely
The reason:
Housing sales have plummetted but not prices, prices will hold up well
With high stock prices
housing stable
low unemployment and corporation profits at an all time high that should support the US economy
By the way,
He dressed in light colored jacket, a light colored tie and dark shirt
He looked like Fraedo from The Godfather Part II
Conclusion: Don't take advice from a Fraedo look-a-like
Every day that passes it becomes more obvious just how wrong lance and va_investor were...
ReplyDeleteIt is looking more and more like we might hit a 15-20% drop in prices this year over last year.
Hahahaha. DLW # 1 Blog.
ReplyDeleteAttention NAR think before you spin.
"The NAR Watch"
There is no reason to diss Bernard Baumbul. He gave good reasons that a recession is unlikely, just as many people in this blog give good reasons that home prices will drop and cause a recession. Only history will tell whose prediction is correct.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I don't see a recession even if home prices drop another 15%. The US economy and the global economy is strong enough to overcome the drag from dropping home prices, and the resulting lowered consumer spending. There will be pockets of hurt in the US, but it will not be a recession. Of course, all bets are off if home prices drop 30% or more.
Anonymous said...
ReplyDelete"Every day that passes it becomes more obvious just how wrong lance and va_investor were..."
Anon, you must be living in a very different world than I am ... Pehaps a fantasy world. Just last weekend I did some openhouses with a friend looking to move back downtown. Prices aren't down in desireable areas. They're up. By a lot. Go walk around yourself ... and you'll see.
"Anon, you must be living in a very different world than I am ... Pehaps a fantasy world. Just last weekend I did some openhouses with a friend looking to move back downtown. Prices aren't down in desireable areas. They're up. By a lot. Go walk around yourself ... and you'll see. "
ReplyDeletelol... from $1 million to $2 million for an average rowhouse in the last 12 months right? Remember how you toured several of those? Well we are still waiting for you to show us even one example.
If I were you I would try to come up with a new story... last year this time you were going on and on about how prices are still up and that there was no price decline. Now that serious price declines are hitting you are reduced to saying there are no price declines in "nice" areas.
Newsflash lance... the higher the price bracket the later in the cycle prices get hit. These things ALWAYS show up in the lowest priced segments first.
Ideally people trade up in the housing market. As the lower segments collapse people have less to trade up with. Eventually the whole market feels the pain...
Lance said...
ReplyDelete“Anon, you must be living in a very different world than I am ... Pehaps a fantasy world. Just last weekend I did some openhouses with a friend looking to move back downtown. Prices aren't down in desireable areas. They're up. By a lot. Go walk around yourself ... and you'll see.”
Excellent point “Lance”, now if you could only produce data indicating that were true.
Well, MRIS has helped you along a bit. MRIS data for zip codes are now password protected. How convenient. I wonder why they suddenly deemed this information untouchable by us common folk?
(If someone has a new link for zip code data, please post)
David, maybe somebody has already said this, but based on the comments that Lawrence Yun is starting to make at NAR, you might want to start a "Lawrence Yun Watch" blog. I think he said a quote in the last day or two, something about prices recovering in the latter part of 2007. Sounds like Lereah "Part Deux".
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteNewsflash lance... the higher the price bracket the later in the cycle prices get hit. These things ALWAYS show up in the lowest priced segments first.
Very true. And the high end recovers first... normally.
This time people were flipping homes up to $1.5 million! Heck, in Irvine CA there is a cluster of a few dozen homes that were flipped in the $2.5 to $4.5M range. Oops... That's going to hurt.
Did everyone catch S&P's anouncement today on MBS ratings? Yep... credit is tightening further. They increased the amount of "overleverage" required by 2nd mortgages from (IIRC) 5.5% to 8.7% (~50% increase) to qualify for AAA rating. The number of bond downgrades is staggering. Hey, if you can buy sans mortgage... never mind.
Everyone else will be buying less house.
Got popcorn?
Neil
I really do think housing has a long way to fall. As I've posted before, I think the numbers are way out of whack. However, I'm not convinced there will be a recession involved. Business' numbers (not housing related) are remarkably solid.
ReplyDeleteJust a thought.
From Today's WSJ:
ReplyDeleteSupply of Homes Continues to Grow
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
May 9, 2007; Page D3
The supply of houses and condominiums available for sale continues to grow quickly in much of the U.S., reflecting weak sales.
The number of homes listed for sale in 18 major metropolitan areas at the end of April was up 7% from March, according to data compiled by ZipRealty Inc., a national real-estate brokerage firm in Emeryville, Calif. The data cover listings of single-family homes, condos and town houses on local multiple-listing services.
The increase was above the seasonal norm. Over the past 22 years, home inventories nationwide have increased an average of 4.5% in April from March, according to Credit Suisse Group. Spring is the busiest time of year for home shopping, as families with children try to get settled ahead of the next school year.
Some of the biggest increases last month were in the metro areas of San Francisco, up about 19%; Washington, 17%; Orange County, Calif., 15%; and Seattle, 14%. Inventories declined nearly 1% in the Los Angeles area, according to Zip.
In a report issued yesterday, Ivy Zelman, a Cleveland-based housing analyst for Credit Suisse, said her building-industry contacts have been surprised by the weakness of sales recently, "given the typical seasonal bounce that occurs at this time of year." She added, "Our contacts have officially declared the spring selling season a bust." Many people who had expected a recovery by year end "now believe the market rebound will be pushed out until 2008 at the earliest," Ms. Zelman wrote.
After booming in the first half of this decade, the housing market began cooling in much of the country in 2005. Since then, prices have been flat to declining in many areas. In recent months, an abrupt tightening of lending standards has further sapped the market by preventing some potential buyers from getting loans.
The National Association of Realtors yesterday again lowered its forecast, predicting that sales of previously occupied homes will total 6.29 million, down 2.9% from 2006. A month ago, the trade group projected that sales this year would slip 2.2%. Lawrence Yun, a senior economist for the Realtors, said many speculators have fled the market.
"It's good that we're getting beyond the tendency of some buyers to view housing as a temporary asset to accumulate short-term wealth, which is not to be expected in a normal market," he wrote.
Lereah has done an about face now that he is no longer shackled by the jaws of the NAR. He has mentioned that there may be weakness in housing and that there may be some issues ahead for us.
ReplyDeleteWhat the heck? Is hell freezing over? Probably not since it was blistering hot in LA these past few days; the hills were burning making me think that hell is on Earth circa Hollywood. I digress. Mr. Lereah has taken a lot of flak for being the figurehead of an organization that simply needs pompoms and tunnel vision glasses that view housing in Pollyanna. I get the feeling even with the Fed holding pat this week on rates that they are somehow holding their breath and wishing summer will bring back a bounce.
Glad to see a fellow blogger being represented in the mainstream media. There is a great LA Times blog about housing and I had Real Homes of Genius featured. Great to see the mainstream media reading our work! After all they can use us as surrogates because our message may be a bit to extreme for them to publish it outright. We do their dirty work.
Keep up the good work.
Doctor Housing Bubble