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Bubble Meter is a national housing bubble blog dedicated to tracking the continuing decline of the housing bubble throughout the USA. It is a long and slow decline. Housing prices were simply unsustainable. National housing bubble coverage. Please join in the discussion.
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The Bubble Meter Philosophy
The best way to get the housing market thriving again is to drop prices to the point where supply equals demand. Home sellers might not like it, but it's good for buyers and it's great for Realtors.
For Realtors, the best way to make more money is to sell houses quickly, and the best way to sell houses quickly is to convince the seller to drop the price.
For Realtors, the best way to make more money is to sell houses quickly, and the best way to sell houses quickly is to convince the seller to drop the price.
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When will inflation-adjusted DC-area housing prices return to pre-bubble levels?
Are housing prices about to experience a double-dip?
How should the U.S. government balance the budget? (Check all that apply.)
What is your political affiliation?
What sparked the housing bubble?
Is the recession over?
Who bears responsibility for the housing bubble? (Check all that apply.)
What is your living situation?
Was subprime lending a cause or an effect of the housing bubble?
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Bubble Meter Archive
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▼
2007
(152)
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▼
October
(16)
- Quoted in Reuters Article Where I Criticize Lereah
- Geeks Buy Houses
- Lawrence Yun is Wrong Abou Rising Prices; Puts Sp...
- Senate Sqaure Condos are Now Available for Rent
- 52 Months Supply of Housing in Palm Beach County
- Lose, Lose Situation
- Criminality At Countywide
- September Home Sales in Southern California Plunge
- Best of The Bubble Sphere
- For Sale And For Rent
- Hudson & Marhsall Real Estate Auction Video
- DC Area Housing Unit Sales for September Show Huge...
- Bubble Sphere Roundup
- Large Price Declines Expected in Fall and Winter
- Hudson & Marhsall Real Estate Auction
- Best of The Bubble Sphere
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▼
October
(16)
oops!
ReplyDeleteOct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices fell for the first time in two years in October, led by declines in central London, a survey by Hometrack Ltd. showed.
Don't worry, London is not the center of the world. It will have no effect on prices in Paris or Muhibibstan. DC prices will probaly go up as the rich people who do not want to live in the London slums will move to DC for the great food.
ReplyDeleteHi David,
ReplyDeleteIt hasn't gone unnoticed that the second bullet point in your previous post contains a seemingly incongruous street addres: "18 Q STREET NW"
Why did you insert that address there?
The New York Times
ReplyDeleteFleeing Rents in Capital, Nonprofits Buy Condos
By EUGENE L. MEYER
Published: October 10, 2007
WASHINGTON, Oct. 5 — Buffeted by steadily rising rents and a shortage of space for midsize offices here, a number of nonprofit organizations in the nation’s capital have hit upon a solution to their needs: They are going condo.
Friday, September 14, 2007
ReplyDeleteTishman Speyer starts office towers in Northeast D.C.Washington Business Journal - by Prabha Natarajan Staff Reporter
Tishman Speyer has started construction on another office project in D.C.
The New York-based real estate developer and property owner plans to build two office towers at the site -- 1100 and 1150 First St. NE. Each 12-story building will have 350,000 square feet of space.
The first phase of construction, which includes one building, is a $140 million project that is expected to be completed in April 2009.
Tishman Speyer bought the land, the block at the corner of First Street NE and L Street NE, a year ago from J Street Development for $60 million. Since then, the company has been finalizing its plans and design for the site
Anyone interested in a "deal" should check out this past weekend's
ReplyDeleteclassifieds under "houses wanted to buy". The "we buy ugly houses" people are over-run with property. If you want someone to find a bargain for you - here you go.
Ok, trolls and stalkers, have at it!
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/10/realestate/commercial/10condo.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
ReplyDelete"Tishman Speyer starts office towers in Northeast D.C.Washington Business Journal - by Prabha Natarajan Staff Reporter"
ReplyDeleteI'm not if there is a point to this post, but A 347K sq. ft. office building is not exactly noteworthy. The Royal Bank of Scotland is building its U.S. headquarters in a rather unimpressive suburb 35 miles east of NYC. Size? 500K sq. ft.
Once complete, the headquarters and trading floor of UBS Warburg, in the same city, will max out at over 900K sq. ft.
BTW, 12 stories is about the height of new boutique condo building in any major NYC.
Sorry, "major NYC" should = "major U.S. city"
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
ReplyDeleteAnyone interested in a "deal" should check out this past weekend's classifieds under "houses wanted to buy". The "we buy ugly houses" people are over-run with property. If you want someone to find a bargain for you - here you go.
I don't subscribe to the Washington Post, so I can't look at what you're trying to describe. However, the "we buy houses" advertising is generally considered a good way to find people desperate to sell their houses quickly (and thus cheaply). The general rule is, the quicker you want to sell your house, the lower you have to set your price.
In the very rare market where future prices will be lower than current prices—which I believe we are now in—I wonder whether the general rule still applies.
Required reading for bubble heads and housing heads alike:
ReplyDeletePrinceton University economist Paul Krugman has a bunch of graphs on his blog from the Joint Economic Committee's report on the subprime lending crisis. For those who prefer to go straight to the source, the report is available here.
Wow, that is an incredible article.
ReplyDeleteThis pretty well puts a bullet in the head of the idea that this is a "normal" cycle as a couple of the slower thinking contributors to this blog have tried to argue.
Separate from the Tishman Speyer buildings which are restricted in height (as are all buildings in DC):
ReplyDelete"http://tinyurl.com/26aju6
.....
"The DC Zoning Commission approved the application this Monday for Broadcast Center One, a 300,000 s. f. mixed-use development "
Another funded and approved development project:
ReplyDeleteAbdo's NY Ave Project Wins OK from District
Washington Business Journal
March 1, 2007
"He can now move forward with the transformation of a 16-acre, triangular parcel..."
"The $1.1 billion project, which involves what is said to be the largest assemblage of private land for development in the District, will be called Arbor Place in honor of its neighbor, the National Arboretum."
"The plans call for eight buildings, rising 11 floors to 110 feet.... features 130,000 square feet of retail..."
Those Tishman buildings are a fraction of the overall development currently underway (go look) in that immediate area now.
ReplyDeleteNOMA BID
That JEC report has been out for a week or so; how strange was it to read a Congreesional Report that acknowledges the existence of a RE bubble and favorably cites both Dean Baker and Robert Shiller, who gets bonus points for Case-Shiller Index and Irrational Exuberance references. Too bad the recommendations of the Committee were so lame.
ReplyDeleteHousing bears are housing bears - - not commercial real estate bears.
ReplyDeleteThe new Case Shiller numbers are out.
ReplyDeleteAugust shows DC down 7.2%
(that is -7.2% lance, with a minus sign, not a hyphen)
but but but... what about the assessments?
Don't worry perpetual RE bulls, as usual these numbers have nothing to do with YOUR street. That street is going to make Manhattan look like Camden NJ in a couple years!
The new Case Shiller numbers are out.
ReplyDeleteDC is down 0.9% in a month. Back in August which is traditionally a strong sales month.
Warning pdf:
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_102626.pdf
Look at the 1st graph. The trend is your friend. If things are only as bad as the 1991 downturn, we have four years before significant price appreciation.
But so far... we're trending worse than the last one. Cest la vie. At least DC isn't Miami or Tampa. 2% a month drop in prices!
Don't forget, this is August data. Everything was weaker in September and October.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Streets are different.
ReplyDeleteOn my street (in D.C), I had an appraisal for a HELOC in Nov. 2006. We came in at $805K. The house directly behind ours, which is comparable in square footable, parking, beds, and baths sold after five days on the market. Asking was $840K. It sold for $880K.
I have popcorn.
Yes, I know the property. Nice house on Tennessee Avenue. You must be on New York Avenue.
ReplyDelete"Yes, I know the property. Nice house on Tennessee Avenue. You must be on New York Avenue."
ReplyDeleteHI Lance!! are both those posts yours??
Street are different:
ReplyDeleteI am calling Bull on this one. Post some facts. This was most likely a lance or va post. Prove it!
Anon 7:09
ReplyDeleteyou hit the nail on the head! what do facts mean to lance. (ANSWER hyphen (i spelled that one out for you lance) NOTHING). present all the facts you want. present all the other learned opinions. present blood in the streets. DOES NOT MATTER TO A FOOL.
Anon 11:42,
ReplyDeleteThat's right ... there's only one person out there that disagrees with the BH philosophy. Of course there are thousands out there that adhere to it ... they just all happen to go by "anon". Have some balls and post under your own name.
lance,
ReplyDeletewhat is the point of posting under your own name. how do we know that your real name is not "Henrietta"? you might as well post as an "anon" this is a cyber forum in case you have not noticed. please don't talk about "balls" that is something you know nothing about!
This is the person with the Popcorn. It wasn't Lance.
ReplyDeleteI posted the figure about the $880K sale. If you think I am giving away my personal info on this site, you have got to be kidding yourself.
You need not look on my block, search MRIS sales in a favorable DC zip for the previous 3 months. For SFH with 3+ beds and 3+ baths, plus parking, prices are going up.
The person who posted about condos coming on-line is incorrect. If more condos come on-line, it will have nothing to do with demand. People who want to buy condos, will still do so. It will effect the price of condos b/c there will be more options for buyers.
This, however, only applies to condos, not SFH.
The person who made the post awhile back about housing not being like bushels of corn hit the nail on the head. People's lives dictate that they buy a home, not the overabundance of a available housing.
You want facts that the sky isn't falling: Here you go. Take the Capitol Hill Zip Code:
ReplyDelete1) 310 8th Street SE; Closed 10/15/2007. 3 beds, 2.5 baths. List: $859,500 / Sold: $880,000. Seller Sub of $2,500. 3 days on the market.
2) 234 10th Street SE. Closed 08/17/2007. # beds, 2.5 baths. List $775K / Sold: $775K. Seller Subsidy of $1,100. 3 days on the market.
3) 1018 South Carolina Ave. Closed: 09/06/2007. 3 beds, 2.5 baths. List: $889K / Sold: $859K. Seller Sub: $0. 13 days on the market.
4) 415 Independence Ave. Closed 07/25/2007. 2 beds, 2 baths. List $969K / Sold $969K. Seller Sub: $0. 7 days on the market.
Do the same research in Lance's zip (or any other desirable zip) and I'm sure he is doing fine too.
Check out the days on the market --these were not on the market long.
I know these people. They were friends of a guy I know. They live in like "IN" the DC area. And they had this really awesome house he said. It was house with something noone else had. It was a really great house and they were really smart people. And then they sold it for like a lot more money than they bought it for. And then they bought an even better house that was even cooler in a better neighborhood. And all the new neighbors were really important and smart. But now my friend says that these friends tried to borrow some money from him to make payments on thier BMW's and that thier realitor has a restraining order out so that they stop harassing her. Really, its a true story.
ReplyDeleteanon 12:17 said:
ReplyDelete"what is the point of posting under your own name. how do we know that your real name is not "Henrietta"? you might as well post as an "anon""
when I post as "Lance", you know who I am in the context of what other things I've said in past posts. when you post as "anon" I have no idea if you are the same "anon" I spoke to yesterday, or whether this is your first post ... You are just a single, "stand-alone" anon post with no connection to anything you've said before. You have no accountability. Do you really not see the difference?
Lord Lance will not suffer a posers presence.
ReplyDelete"You need not look on my block, search MRIS sales in a favorable DC zip for the previous 3 months. For SFH with 3+ beds and 3+ baths, plus parking, prices are going up."
ReplyDelete*Yawn*
"when I post as "Lance" "
ReplyDeleteSo you admit you spam the board with annoy comments...
thanks loser
"You want facts that the sky isn't falling: Here you go. Take the Capitol Hill Zip Code:"
ReplyDeleteSo why do you post here? Everyone here is wrong. Right? If you are so rich and well off, what do you care that the market isn't as bad as some think it is? Because, it isn't like you are shilling for the market and trying to convince people to buy.
Anon 2:05, no one has had to "covince people to buy". "Buy" they have, hence the run up in prices since the builders couldn't build fast enough ... at least not where most people want to live.
ReplyDeleteYour post implies that demand gets created out of thin air. It doesn't. And you wouldn't be on here if you weren't part of that (unexcercised) demand.
"Check out the days on the market --these were not on the market long."
ReplyDelete1. That is a cherry-picked list of rare houses, you are effing dreaming if you think that is representative of general DC RE.
2. All of those, save one, sold for listing or less than listing - quickly.
3.Which likely means the seller grabbed the first offer, and quickly, before the market got worse.
Days on market? You've got to be kidding. Ever hear of a relist? Disclosing total days on market after a relist is considered a purely "optional" requirement by the RE brokerage industry, despite what the NAR "rules of ethics" state. Ditto for original asking price, although there is no ethical requirement to disclose this. And seller concessions rarely appear (I don't think ever, but I'll leave the door open) unless we'e talking sales from a developer, where the sub is advertised.
ReplyDeleteAnyone interested in trends within zips, metro markets, by month or year, can find the info here:
http://www.mris.com/reports/stats/
"So why do you post here? Everyone here is wrong. Right? If you are so rich and well off, what do you care that the market isn't as bad as some think it is? Because, it isn't like you are shilling for the market and trying to convince people to buy."
ReplyDeleteHe just wants to argue. If he were honestly trying to convince people to turn into perma-bulls like him he would probably make an effort not to act like a total dipshit in an effort to maintain credibility.
He won't even admit when he misquotes someone... or that he was wrong about the chart... to this very day he insists the chart was wrong.
If one day he remarked that the sun rose in the west, he would feel obligated to continue to defend that point until death to avoid having to admit that he was wrong.
You aren't dealing with the top 1% with lance...
"what do you care that the market isn't as bad as some think it is?"
ReplyDeleteI am the anon who posted that. And if that was unclear, and I grant it was, I was saying, that "if you think the market is great, and you are doing so well, why do you care what anyone here thinks."
You're the effing idiot who keeps posting here thinking you are going to convince people of something that is not true.
"You're the effing idiot who keeps posting here thinking you are going to convince people of something that is not true."
ReplyDeleteHey lance, I have a Unicorn for sale!
That's right, a magic horse, with a horn!
This Unicorn has magic powers that can barely be grasped by the human mind, let alone stated in a blog post.
And for $2 million it can be yours.
You better move fast, because last year this unicorn was going for $1 million, and it is just an average Unicorn with a nice horn.
(actually having just written that I can say that it is liberating in a way to completely leave the bounds of reality. I can see the temptation such behavior holds for lance...)
I was asked to post, "blood in the streets." I posted facts, as requested. I followed these houses. The market data is valid. I'm not arguing that anyone should buy unless the time is right.
ReplyDeleteAnd to see all the posts several hours later...I cannot scream it loud enough -- "I am not Lance!!" The fact that you people (BH) keep thinking I am Lance makes ya'll seem more crazy than I ever imagined.
I post data and I get *YAWN* as a response, and claims that I am Lance.
Wow. Wow. Wow.
I used to give some creedence to this list. Everyone needs a healthy dose of self-doubt, and I tried to give the BH some credibility, but it seems it really is all a grudge, a self-fufilling prophecy to "be right."
I hope the BH keep the faith. I'll need someone to rent out my future investments for the next 30 years.
Neil, I'll even throw in a free bag of popcorn so you can have some.
Got bubble wrap?
"Got cherry pickings?"
ReplyDelete*Yawn*
Please take it easy on Lance/KH; he's had a tough couple of days on this blog. First, he reveals that he can't recognize a percentage of change calculation, admits today that he uses sockpuppets, and just now demonstrates that he does not understand the concept of a statistically significant sample.
ReplyDeleteHowever, in the spirit of fellowship I ask all good souls on this blog join together to help someone obviously in need. Much like you would feed a wounded bird with an eyedropper, I suggest that each person here post some bit of general knowledge that Lance/KH
may use in his journey towards a functional adulthood. I'll start: Lance, do you know the moon is the sky even during the daytime?
My rent is a fraction of the cost of buying. Anyone thinking that they can buy real estate and make a profit today is delusional.
ReplyDeleteThe best time to buy real estate was a long time ago (like 1996). Since we're comparing 2007 prices to 2007 rents... do the math. Its not a positive cash flow.
It will be interesting once the Florida Gators eat away at a few investors. I wish them luck. But 2008 is a brave new world.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Neil: "The best time to buy real estate was a long time ago (like 1996)."
ReplyDeleteTry 2003. The strange thing is that people were calling "bubble in 2002.
"Try 2003"
ReplyDeleteTry shutting up, finally. Do you really think posting here will preserve the funny money "equity" you think you have in your suburban rancher as the market tanks?
Yeesh!
Lance,
ReplyDeleteThe earth is round!
"do you know the moon is the sky even during the daytime?"
ReplyDeleteThe moon is the sky?
Hey Lance!
The moon is the sky. And. The earth is round!
Write it down so you won't forget.
The moon is S Street and the sun is "close-in" two miles to the Pentagon!!
ReplyDeleteRecorded on this first day of November, 2007a.b. (after bubble)
No matter where the property is, If you buy it at the right price and do not pay over inflated price then you will not loose out.
ReplyDeleteIf your property price has dropped then the best bet is to keep hold of that property if you can afford it. The prices will surely bounce back