Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Lawrence Yun is Wrong Abou Rising Prices; Puts Spin Machine into Overdrive

The National Association Of Realtors released their September 2007 existing home sales data. The numbers showed the housing market continues to decline.
  • National: Months supply of housing increased from 9.6 in August 07 to 10.5 this month
  • National: Months supply of housing increased from 7.3 in September 06 to 10.5
  • National: Inventory was up .4% this month compare to last and up 16.3% over last September
  • National: September 07 Seasonally Adjusted Sales Numbers vs last month -8%
  • National: September 07 Seasonally Adjusted Sales Numbers vs last year -19.1%
  • National: September 07 Not Seasonally Adjusted Sales Numbers vs last month -28.9%
  • National: September 07 Not Seasonally Adjusted Sales Numbers vs last year -22.7%

They quickly turned their spin machine into overdrive.
Lawrence Yun blamed 'temporary' problems in the mortgage market and assured us these mortgage 'problems' were already improving.

Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, said the decline is understandable. “Mortgage problems were peaking back in August when many of the September closings were being negotiated, and that slowed sales notably in higher priced areas that rely more on jumbo loans,” he said. “The good news is that mortgage availability has markedly improved in recent weeks with interest rates on jumbo loans falling, and more people are applying for safer and conforming FHA mortgage products. Some of the cancelled transactions will move forward as buyers apply for other loans.”


Mr. Yun went on to say that prices were really rising in many area.

“Because there were fewer transactions at the upper end of the market, there is a downward distortion reflected in a lower national median home price. Home prices continue to trend up in the Northeast and in the condo sector. In other areas not dependent on jumbo loans, such as much of the Midwest, prices are rising.”
Mr. Yun is wrong. The evidence shows that overall prices are not rising in both the Northeast and the condo market. Look at the Case Schiller Index as well as date from the Massachusetts Association of Realtors. Prices are also falling in much of where the population in the Midwest lives such as Chicago, Detroit, Minneapolis and Milwaukee

Remember for September 2006, the NAR reported "Total existing-home sales -- including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops -- dipped 1.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 6.18 million" David Lereah the NAR's cheif economist, and Yun's boss at the time said "this is a lagging indicator and the worst is behind us as far as a market correction -- this is likely the trough for sales." Since then the seasonally adjusted rate is down 19% to 5.04 million. Some trough? The NAR's spokespeople cannot be trusted as they are paid shills who give propagandist predictions. They are super spinners.

285 comments:

  1. Haha, you crybaby pussy. Sorry you don't like the numbers and still can't afford that shitty townhouse in Silver Spring, you dumb piece of shit. LOLOL.

    ReplyDelete
  2. "Lawrence Yun blamed 'temporary' problems in..."

    David, by putting the word "temporary" in single quotation marks, you are implying that problems in mortgage markets are permanent.

    Everything, everything, everything changes. Change is the only constant, and then one day you (and all of us) will cease to change because you are dead.

    That is a simple fact. Everything changes. Industries change, neighborhoods change, people change.

    Welcome to life.

    - nate

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  3. I thought that I read that prices in the Northeat were off one-half a percent? Doesn't sound like "Blood In The Streets" to me. And why, after 2 years of complaining what a bunch a lying shills these guys are, do you even care what they say? They are lobbyists with an agenda - duh!

    Move on.


    va.

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  4. Lance,

    what is the story behind your sale of property to HUD in VA Beach?

    - nate

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  5. David,

    Good information. Thank you.

    We've reach a new permanent normallacy where people must actually qualify for a mortgage. Hence, permanent lower sales rates compared to the bubble years. However, we're still above the long term trend line. The question is do we drop down to 4.6M SAAR (from 5.05M SAAR) or will we undershoot? I believe the bottom will be around 4.0M homes per annum.

    It amuses me how the bulls are making our case that much more convincing. Perhaps they do not understand that the time when FUD would sell homes is over. Or please explain why home sales are dropping so fast before we even get into a recession? confused? May I suggest reading up on the recession of 1974.

    The rate at which homes are dropping in price is only accelerating. When is the August Case-Shiller due?

    Any bets on tomorrows new homes sales index? So far the builders that have reported have noted HUGE cancellation rates (and don't forget, cancellation rates are not included in the sales statistics).

    The debate over if we're going to a downturn is over. The side that bothered to read history has been proven right. Let's discuss how far down prices will go; We'll be down 15% to 25% from peak prices before we even get into a job-loss recession. Then? Well, we bears have debated how bad the recession/depression will be for years. I still think recession, but some of the policy decisions are pushing us towards... the later.

    Got popcorn?
    Neil

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  6. Note: The 'temporary' changes in the mortgage market are going to stick. Buyers must now qualify for a loan.

    While I grant change is a constant, the reality is that it will be 30 to 50 years before the mortgage market goes insane again. So the time duration is far longer than 'temporary.' Sales will drop down to the pre-1996 trendline. Cest la vie. In other words, down to 4.0 to 4.6M SAAR. Like all markets, volume leads price...

    Got popcorn?
    Neil

    ReplyDelete
  7. "While I grant change is a constant, the reality is that it will be 30 to 50 years before the mortgage market goes insane again."

    Will you be dead then?

    -nate

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  8. "Note: The 'temporary' changes in the mortgage market are going to stick. "

    David referred to the mortgage industry as having "problems" (not changes as you say) that are of a 'permanent' nature.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I'm still astounded at the 10.5 months of supply on the market. The old correlation is that above 8.7 months of supply a correction in real estate prices is expected.

    Yea VA, we've been talking/warning for two years. Ready to listen yet? Prices are down 7.2% YOY (July) per Case-Shiller. I was accused of making things up in August and September when I noted home sales were dropping by anecdotal evidence and have since been proven correct. Any bets on where prices have gone since July? If you don't like what we bears say... ignore us. We cannot be influencing that many people, can we? ;)

    The mortgage crisis is only a problem for the unqualified. Simply save up a down payment an look for homes with at DTI less than 35%. If you're willing to do that, a mortgage is still easy to get by historical standards.

    So why the price drops? Why the large drop in sales volumes? The bulls might not like David's predictions, but they've been correct.

    Oh, nice way to try to divert from the main point by focusing on 'temporary problems.' The mortgage market is permanently shifting back to the old rules where banks can reasonably be expected to be paid back. Realize, this isn't a problem but a needed return to sensible under-writing. Let's discuss the forest (which is on fire) and not be distracted by individual trees that might or might not be scorched.

    The current trends are only making homes more affordable. Isn't that a good thing? Don't you want young families to get into a home?

    And the bulls still fail to recognize this is a national housing downturn. Until that happens... we are far away from a recovery from this mal-investment. Cest la vie.

    Got popcorn?
    Neil

    ReplyDelete
  10. Neil,

    This blog had a discussion a while back - what is the nature of supply and demand in the housing market? The reason housing prices are "sticky" on the downside is that homes sales inventory is not the same as the supply of a commodity. Every house listed for sale is not a house that needs to be sold in the same way a bushel of corn needs to be sold. When you sell your house, you're not leaving the housing market. As long as you have a roof over your head, you're part of the demand side of the equation for housing. A good data source is the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancies and Homeownership survey. Vacant housing statistics are a good measure of the supply of housing. Right now, they're just over the long term average of near 10% and still signifacantly below the recent peak in the 90's of over 11%. The quarterly data may even show a decrease in supply, but one quarter does not make a trend.

    Take a look:
    http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/historic/index.html

    ReplyDelete
  11. "Prices are down YOY 7.2% per Case-Shiller"

    LOL. I'm convinced. I saw some numbers released today that were in the neighborhood of 4%. Which "shills" have more cred? Either way, it's a far cry from the 50-80% drops which I've seen predicted here.

    Tell me, what are the YOY numbers for the DC area? Are you getting worried about the downward trend in regional inventory? Could a bottom be far behind?

    Regarding loose loan underwriting (no doc) and Arms and Negative Equity Loans. Hate to burst your bubble, but these were alive and well in the eighties. There were even 100% seconds. It's amazing the knowledge you gain after 25yrs in RE.

    I thought my prior post was a comment on David's tiresome rants against the NAR, but you've somehow (as usual) changed the topic. Your name should be changed to strawman.

    Contrary to your constant strawman bs, I never claimed that we wouldn't see a correction. I guess you still don't understand that RE is cyclical. Enjoy waiting another 5 yrs to buy. How long will that make your rental tenure, 10+ years? Waiting for a crash seems like a sound plan, meanwhile hundreds of thousands will be sending in that final mortgage payment. I know that I will owe nothing on my properties in 6 yrs. Half are already free and clear. Ah...and not even 50.

    I sincerely doubt that you watched the market race past you for years and then had a "bubble" epiphany in 2005. It's very convenient though.

    I thought you were moving to a cheaper part of the Country. I hear Michigan is quite the bargain.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Re the post concerning vacancy rates, the correct link to the CB reports is as follows:

    http://tinyurl.com/yqzmmg

    It is the rental vacancy rate that is near 10%. The housing vacancy rate is 2.6%, which is the highest rate recorded, and about 90% higher than the rate in the year that the CB changed its methodology.

    FWIW (not much), the "equilibrium rate" for rental vacancies is commonly accepted as 5%

    ReplyDelete
  13. lex,

    Are these National figures? And if the housing vcancy rate is the highest recorded, when did they start recording?

    I read some pretty astounding (sounding) stats recently, only to find that the "records" only dated to 1999.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Re 10:14

    Yes these are national numbers. CB started reporting the rates in the 60s, although due to a change in data collection I don't think it's particularly useful to look at pre-1993 numbers. All relevant reports may be found by following the link.

    ReplyDelete
  15. "tricked" said...
    "Vacant housing statistics are a good measure of the supply of housing. Right now, they're just over the long term average of near 10% and still signifacantly below the recent peak in the 90's of over 11%."

    I followed your link and quite frankly I can't figure out what data you're looking at. I'm looking at the Quarterly Homeowner Vacancy Rates table (Table 2), and I can see that vacancy rates are up substantially over a few years ago—about 2.7% in 2007 compared with about 1.7% in 2004.

    When it comes to judging supply and demand, vacancy rates are not the correct measure to use. Inventories are. Vacancies tell you nothing about whether buyers are willing to pay the current prices. On the other hand, rising inventories tell you that buyers are not willing to pay current market prices for real estate. Therefore, it is inventories, not vacancies, that tell you whether equilibrium prices are rising or falling.

    Also, while most people are both buyers and sellers at the same time, this is not true for everyone. Old homeowners die and young adults enter the market. If real estate prices are too high, anyone can choose to rent rather than own.

    ReplyDelete
  16. VA Investor said...
    "Tell me, what are the YOY numbers for the DC area?"

    He already told you: -7.2% Duh!

    Check the data yourself, here.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Lex,

    Those vacancy rates are eye opening. I've heard that any rental occupancy rate below 94% is just pure pain. So that aligns with what you quote.

    I clicked over the regional vacancy rates and those were very interesting.

    The question is, how many homes listed as occupied really are empty (due to false claims on the mortgages).


    As to anon:
    http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_092512.pdf

    Its the only home price index that normalizes home prices for how existing home prices varied.

    What source, besides median price is up?!? Oh yea. Inventory.

    I'll leave it to each potential buyer and seller to decide on what to do. But for now, buying and renting are so out of balance that I'll go the way that makes sense.

    Hey, buy now or be priced out forever! ;) Now let's see how those that overbought do...

    again, when is August's Case-Shiller due out? Looking at S&P's web site the data seems to always show up the 25th through the end of the month.


    Got popcorn?
    Neil

    ReplyDelete
  18. David,
    You'll want to read this WSJ article. Note: I have a subscription, so hopefully it goes through for you:
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119326355265670448.html?mod=todays_us_personal_journal

    Got popcorn?
    Neil

    ReplyDelete
  19. wannabuy said...
    "again, when is August's Case-Shiller due out? Looking at S&P's web site the data seems to always show up the 25th through the end of the month."

    The S&P Case-Shiller HPI numbers get released on the last Tuesday of every month (e.g. October 30). The OFHEO HPI numbers get released on the last Thursday of every month (e.g. today). I think they both get released at about 9:00AM of their given day.

    ReplyDelete
  20. The OFHEO HPI that gets released today will probably show an increase in prices, which it has been consistently doing while all other data sources have been showing declines. The OFHEO data is skewed by two factors. First, it only counts conforming loans, which means it ignores much of the real estate in bubble markets. Second, it is not a purchase-only index. Instead, it also counts refinancings which are based entirely on appraisals. Find a friendly appraiser and you will get a friendly valuation, even if no one would actually buy your house for the appraised value.

    ReplyDelete
  21. WOW, that is a lot of cluelessness for one post.

    "Which "shills" have more cred? Either way, it's a far cry from the 50-80% drops which I've seen predicted here."

    50-80%? Why stop there? As long as you are making up numbers you might as well say 99%. Who the heck is predicting an 80% price decline?

    "Tell me, what are the YOY numbers for the DC area?"

    Go to MRIS.com if you would like to see that data.

    DC is way down YoY.

    "Regarding loose loan underwriting (no doc) and Arms and Negative Equity Loans. Hate to burst your bubble, but these were alive and well in the eighties. There were even 100% seconds. It's amazing the knowledge you gain after 25yrs in RE."

    What is amazing is that even with the facts staring you in the face you can't accept what is going on. Yes, these types of loans have existed for a long time, but no they weren't used in the same way they have been recently. Go look up the statistics. No-doc/subprime/option arm/ IO loans were used far more during the bubble run-up than at any point since at least the 1920s.


    "I guess you still don't understand that RE is cyclical. Enjoy waiting another 5 yrs to buy. How long will that make your rental tenure, 10+ years? Waiting for a crash seems like a sound plan, meanwhile hundreds of thousands will be sending in that final mortgage payment."

    And you complain about strawmen... lol. After the initial drop there will be a long stagnant period. So long as someone didn't buy in the 2004-2007 time period in most of the metro area they are likely to be fine. In close in areas they probably should wait until at least mid 2008.

    "I sincerely doubt that you watched the market race past you for years and then had a "bubble" epiphany in 2005. It's very convenient though."

    Yeah, we should all have taken your advice and overpaid at the top of the market... have you considered that it is obvious you don't have anyone else's best interest at heart? You are only here to bicker and of course try to find some way to mention in every other post what a huge huge success you are.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Anon 4:45,

    You've had to make a difficult choice: (a)whether to believe and follow the advice of a twenty-something year old living in a group house who cannot figure out how to buy themselves a home under current circumstances or (b) believe and follow the advice of a forty-something year old who has mananged to overcome the harder first time buying hurdles of the early '80s and has amassed a fortune in real estate properties since then. You've apparently chosen to go with (a). Bravo for such a wise choice!

    ReplyDelete
  23. "elieve and follow the advice of a forty-something year old who has mananged to overcome the harder first time buying hurdles of the early '80s and has amassed a fortune in real estate properties since then. You've apparently chosen to go with (a). Bravo for such a wise choice!"

    LOL

    Says the idiot who bought at the top of the bubble...

    VA_Investor is an idiot. Her advice is just flat stupid and I pity anyone that can't see that. She was telling people here to go out and buy at the absolute top of the bubble!(just like you were, lol)

    The only reason she posts on here all day long is because she is semi-crippled and is lucky if she can leave the house on a given day.

    Truth hurts.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Anony 5:54,

    The last part of your post reveals that even you don't believe what you are saying. Quit trolling on this blog.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Lance, you're not one to toss around "troll" as an insult.

    The changes in the mortgage market reflect a return to reasonable due diligence and prudence. The rapid inflation of house prices in this area and nationally are a result of a consistent loosening of standards in the lending industry over the course of the past five years.

    These changes are, as a commenter said above, not likely to reverse anytime soon as the consequences of these actions will be remembered by lenders, foreign investors, and ratings agencies for decades.

    That said, with the return to diligent lending practices, the total number of people who can "afford" a home has dropped drastically.

    The inventory, however, keeps rising, and rising, and rising. Much like flood waters.

    Now, I'm sure for a brilliant rebuttal, someone may call me a "pussy", "idiot", or "faggot". That doesn't change the fact that despite bulls' predictions, 30-year mortgage interest rates have been dropping and prices along with them, and demand, whereas supply keeps increasing.

    Say what you will, the numbers are validating the concerns expressed for years by "bubbleheads."

    ReplyDelete
  26. aua said:
    "Say what you will, the numbers are validating the concerns expressed for years by "bubbleheads.""

    These numbers have been discussed in detail on this blog. They really aren't validating the concerns expressed for years by bubbleheads. They are no different from what anyone with any prior memory of past real estate cycles would have expected. In brief, they won't lead to the 50% - 80% declines in prices that bubbleheads have been bantering for for years. Per recent postings it seems we are talking about price declines in the low single digits having actually occured ... and this when measured using the BH's preferred sources. Meanwhile people who would like to be in a home of their own keep waiting and waiting. All Va_Investor and I are saying is that all that waiting is in vain and counterproductive in the big scheme of things. Don't let yourself be blindsided by small "successes" for validation of your BH purchasing strategy. It's a flawed strategy. The "single-digit-percent" saving you might get for having waited the past year or two to buy is more than offset by other factors in the grand scheme of things ... including opportunities you'll never even know you missed while you were "waiting it out" in that group home.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Lance, since I've never seen the "80% declines" figure cited anywhere on this blog other than by anonymous commenter at (October 24, 2007 9:50 PM) in this thread, I'll assume that you're sock puppeteering. If so, I wouldn't put it past you to be (October 24, 2007 6:07 PM) in this thread as well.

    If you look at the inflation indexed graphs bandied about, you can see that this is much different - - or at least much more severe - - than any prior real estate cycle. Why pretend?

    ReplyDelete
  28. I see alot of talk about inventory. Anyone care to go to VIRGINIAMLS.COM and comment of the multi-year charts for the various Virginia jurisdictions. Trends are DOWN people.

    va

    ReplyDelete
  29. They are no different from what anyone with any prior memory of past real estate cycles would have expected.

    Huh? Foreclosures are at an all time record. You make fun of the young giving advice, but wasn't if the bulls who kept stating "buy now or be priced out forever?" Hence why people took out all those exotic mortgages that are seeing high default levels even at prime?

    As to sleep, we renters are saving quite a bit, so we sleep well. Nothing determines long term standard of living as when you buy during the real estate cycle. I don't know of anyone tossing and turning because they're concerned about paying rent. Not in today's market.

    Prices are going to drop 6% to 20% in six months! I'm saving money better than 98% of Americans and yet the best thing I can do for my future standard of living is not buy.

    I notice bulls never talk affordability. You do realize the fed considers spending more than 30% of one's income unaffordable?

    The last 9 months started the downturn due to mortgage resets. The charts have been linked to showing that the next 9 months are a far faster reset rate.

    Nothing is wrong with prices returning back to sane levels. Considering how much nicer the home is that I can buy buy simply waiting a little time... I'll wait. I have no desire to throw away my first 5 years of gains in RE fees when by waiting two I'll have money in the bank and the house I want. There have been times I've encouraged friends to buy. Obviously not the last few years.

    There is no reason to feed the REIC transaction machine now. By waiting there is less competition from those who should never have qualified for a mortgage. The system is still clearing itself out. Those who can save up a down payment will be in great shape in 2010.

    Subprime now has a far larger market share than any prior cycle. Cash out financing is also far more prevalent. Hence, this cycle will be more severe.

    http://www.td.com/economics/special/bc0407_subprime.jsp

    But hey, why do you worry about us? We're saving like no other Americans are saving. Our investments are doing well too. We're mobile and thus can pursue career opportunities to. We bears will also own far earlier than anyone who overstretched and bought interest only or option ARM.

    Chinese stock market was down 4.8%. Ours didn't open pretty. Why? Mortgage concerns. Let's see how the new home sales data looks. So far the cancellation rates have been eye opening.

    Got popcorn?
    Neil

    ReplyDelete
  30. VA, I saw your link - - you'd better get as much property as you can on the MLS and into the system while the market is hot! There's never been a better time to buy! or sell! or give commission to a realtor!

    ReplyDelete
  31. Revised numbers on housing sales for August and Sept are better than expected.

    BTW Neil, if you get a price drop of up to 20% in the next 6 monhs, why exactly are you waiting until 2012 to buy?

    va

    ReplyDelete
  32. aua,

    ?????????????

    Hey, learn something. Read Steve Fuller's comments in today's post. Fairfax looks prime!

    va

    ReplyDelete
  33. If the following quotes from Steve Fuller translate in your mind to "Fairfax is prime" (bearing in mind that it was written by someone in Fairfax,) then by all means buy!!

    "The national real estate market is clearly in turmoil. The Washington area is not as bad as that, although the number of sales are still far off their normal pace," says Stephen Fuller, director for the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University in Fairfax.

    "Fairfax County has emerged as one of the stronger counties in the metro area in terms of the residential resale market. Condominiums have increased in prices more than the non-condominium stock"

    ""We were less dependent on risky mortgages than other markets, so we have fewer foreclosures. We have the second lowest foreclosure rate in the country."

    ReplyDelete
  34. aua,

    My decisions to buy or sell are not dependent on the the vagaries of RE in 2 or 5 yr time-frames. Why is encouraging news about this region met with such hostility?

    What did Fuller say our foreclosure rate was compared to national numbers? The second lowest? Something like that. I think that anyone who lives and works in this region would be pleased about that. Not everyone needs a crash to be able to buy a home.

    In fact, I believe that the majority of renters on this board can afford to buy (using the proper ratios-and not some useful income multiplier), they just can't afford to buy what they feel they are ENTITLED to.

    ReplyDelete
  35. You must be reading the hostility into my comment, because I didn't put it there.

    As far as who needs a crash to own a home, ask the policeman making $60K/yr who is the sole provider for a family of four. If he was smart enough to read the terms on that ARM or I/O, and decided that the risks of foreclosure outweighed the benefits of "getting his foot in the door of homeownership", then he shouldn't be penalized.

    Don't begrudge him that he is now being rewarded.

    Regarding foreclosure numbers being very low, I'm not so sure that's a positive thing. All of your statements seem to be predicated on the believe that the appreciation experienced in the past 5 years was somehow reasonable or appropriate.

    It was not. The only market factor that facilitated the appreciation was easy credit. Demand increased as credit became easier to obtain, however many of the people who obtained this credit were frankly not worthy of it - - whether because of misrepresented income, or a history of welching on debts, or what have you. They need to be foreclosed upon to protect the remaining integrity of the already rotting lending market.

    ReplyDelete
  36. va said
    "Revised numbers on housing sales for August and Sept are better than expected."

    Um, that is completely wrong. They revised august down. September was below estimates and the lowest since 98. I can understand why you think things are ok in the RE world, you are getting the wrong data.

    ReplyDelete
  37. "My decisions to buy or sell are not dependent on the the vagaries of RE in 2 or 5 yr time-frames."

    Yeah, or the occasional unexpected doubling in prices...

    ReplyDelete
  38. aua,

    I don't begrudge anyone. It is merely a fact of life that not everyone can afford to live here.

    The regional housing authorities are attempting to provide affordable housing for teachers, firefighter, policemen, etc.

    The regional cost of living is very high and has been as far back as I can remember.

    I've never claimed that the appreciation was reasonable. Quite the contrary. RE experiences booms and busts and always has. The difference between me and most of the people here is that I don't expect the sky to fall and I don't need people to crash and burn for me to get ahead.

    OT- but to comment on a recurrent theme among the Lance and me bashers. We are not here because we are worried or scared. We are here because of an intense interest in RE. In my case, it's almost a job and, very clearly, a passion. I would suggest that the same is true for the bashers who are also here on a regular basis. They exhibit far more than a casual or passing interest in RE.

    va

    ReplyDelete
  39. va said:
    "They exhibit far more than a casual or passing interest in RE."

    I agree ... and if they'd stop limiting themselves by believing that only a "crash and burn" scenario will bring them the property they want at the price they want it, they'd most likely do very well for themselves. They just have to get past the "it's a zero sum game out there"-mentality. It's not. A rising economy, of which a rising real estate market is a result, is a good thing for all.

    For example, that cop trying to raise a family of 4 on a salary of $60,000 per year has something very valuable to offer ... his skills and willingness to put his safety on the line every day. Do you think the communities he protects could do without him? Of course not ... so they will pay what it takes to get him (or someone else with his skills and willingness to do what it takes) and they will pay him/her what it takes to make it possible for him/ her to live here. Will increased tax revenues from increased assessments be tapped to pay the increased salary requirements? You bet they will.

    ReplyDelete
  40. VA - I don't expect the sky to fall - - I expect the prices to fall, in an amount roughly equivalent to the historically unprecedented increases of the boom. So we agree, I guess.

    Lance - You're unknowingly advocating rampant, insane inflation, and I think those sorts of comments are why people "bash" you.

    ReplyDelete
  41. "The regional cost of living is very high and has been as far back as I can remember."

    Which is like what 2002?

    One of the reasons nobody takes you seriously is your continual attempts to rewrite history.

    "cost of living has always been high"

    "there have always been subprime and IO loans"

    etc etc

    Anyone who has been here for more than a few years knows for a fact that the cost of living in this area has gone through the roof, primarily due to housing costs.

    Go to housing tracker and look at the historical housing cost data.

    Do some basic research and avoid looking like a fool.

    ReplyDelete
  42. "Lance - You're unknowingly advocating rampant, insane inflation, and I think those sorts of comments are why people "bash" you."

    No no, don't you understand?

    EVERYONE will be rich!

    None of them will be as rich as lance of course.

    ReplyDelete
  43. 2012 to buy? Did I typo? I'll buy in 2010.

    Sharp drop in US new home sales
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7062453.stm

    Now I'm a big believe in seasonal adjusting, but if you look over at Calculated risk's assessment of the new home sales, the trend is clearly down:

    http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/10/more-on-september-new-home-sales.html


    I don't begrudge anyone. It is merely a fact of life that not everyone can afford to live here.


    Fair statement. Maybe its just time for my industry to move on. We were priced out of long Island and Silicon Valley, maybe we're priced out of DC and other areas.

    Or are we? While my salary is above what the bulls have bragged on here, but I realize unless the technicians who earn $60k a year can buy a decent home... we'll move on.

    As to bashing, the bulls have been the snippiest. Reap what you sow. Stop trying to push people to buy when its wiser to wait. We don't need the "sky to fall" to get ahead. As a renter I'm saving quite a lot, investing well, and living well.

    There will be a time to buy. But this is like the dot.com market right before it crashed. All the bagholders are screaming at those safe on the sidelines to jump in. Never before has so much real estate been owned by those looking for a GF to take it off their hands. Oh wait, there was Florida 1925/1926. Sadly, this situation is worse due to the global scope.


    And remember on today's home sales, the census bureau always overestimates sales on the way down.

    We don't want someone else's misery. What we object to is that misery being dumped on us. We'll buy when it makes sense. The extra $250k or so that I'll save on the purchase price will go a long way. The extra $75k to $100k I'll save by renting over buying... only sweeter. At normal appreciation rates you should expect to come out ahead buying a home about the value of the home in 30 years. Right now, renting is ahead ~1/2 the value of the house (assuming normal appreciation).

    It doesn't matter why we don't own now (age, career, etc.). What matters is that its silly to buy now.

    Got popcorn?
    Neil

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  44. I will throw the "pro-housing" group one tidbit. Home sales will have to drop another 20% to bring the nation into a recession on its own (by historical correlation).

    However, the financial system is unusually illiquid. As a liquid investor, why would I give up that advantage when its going to be the easiest time to invest for a long time?

    Got popcorn?
    Neil

    ReplyDelete
  45. anon 9:23,

    "there have always been I/O and subprime"

    Nice Strawman! Where did I say that? There WERE neg am loans in the mid-80's, and I got a couple no-docs in the late 80's. There were also a ton of no-down FHA and VA assumptions with OTB's or hard money seconds. They didn't even run a credit report. The assumption fee was $45. There was also alot of mortgage fraud (silent seconds) and people went to jail. My knowledge of the regional cost of living goes back to 1981, not 2002. You were probably still in diapers.

    va

    va

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  46. AUA, your comment about Fuller being located in fairfax - apparently meant to suggest he is biased - dont believe that for a second. He is not one of the typical NAR Shills or some other BS housing guru. The guy is a respected economist who works with Buchanan & Vernon Smith over at GMU - both of them being Econ Nobel prize winners by the way.

    In fact, if you look at his comments, he appears to support the whole "inner suburbs is different" philosophy espoused by Lance & KH. I take everything these two guys take with a grain of salt, and I still think the national housing picture is very bleak, but after seeing this and the recent inventory numbers for the inner burbs (down YoY), I think they might be right...

    ReplyDelete
  47. That is precisely what I was implying, yes.

    I know a few people whom I consider to be incredibly intelligent, pragmatic, and no-bullshit types that really have their heads in the sand on this one.

    ReplyDelete
  48. aua,

    Care to comment on the inventory numbers? Go to virginiamls.com

    ReplyDelete
  49. Sorry but I'm not following with what you want people to see at the virginiamls site. It looks to me like inventories are pretty steady for the most part vs last month and also vs last year and up vs 2 years ago. I'm not really a housing bear like some here, but I also am not following your point.

    ReplyDelete
  50. I went to the site when first linked, and the data is interesting. It seems like inventory in all areas of Virginia are soaring over 2004/2005 levels, and inventory in five of the nine areas tracked are equal to or greater than 2006. It would tell a much more interesting story if any of those places had something unique.

    I'm not particularly concerned with how inventory looks in, say, Fairfax City, because I'm looking at the DC Metropolitan area as a whole. Like, this area: http://tinyurl.com/2ggcp7

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  51. aua,

    You have to understand that inventory in 2004 and 2005 was historically low; even, absurdly low. It is the trend that is important in my view. I agree that inventory is bloated and that prices are correcting, but when I start seeing numbers trending down I take notice. Another six months will be much more telling. I called a peak in June and July of 2005 when I starting seeing huge climbs in inventory. Then I proceeded to bail on 4 new construction condos. I trying to see how far off a bottom is. And, no, I don't expect anything other than a few years stagnation after the bottom.

    va

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  52. "My knowledge of the regional cost of living goes back to 1981, not 2002. You were probably still in diapers."

    Heh, you act like having been here a long time is a substitute for being completely wrong.

    OOh, a long tenured idiot, lets take her advice!

    Why don't you get a graph of inflation and a graph of housing prices in the area.

    Next, take those two and try to make an argument that prices have "always been high."

    Up until very recently DC was a cheap place to live, just like Florida, Phoenix, Las Vegas etc...

    Let me guess, Las Vegas is the next Manhattan right?

    It is too bad we can't get a couple idiot permabulls from other cities to come over here and discuss why THEIR cities are completely different from all those OTHER places. You guys would be at each other's throats in seconds all claiming to live in the next Manhattan! lol

    ReplyDelete
  53. Yes they are soaring over 04/05 but my point is that the inner areas are either down (Alex, Arl, Falls Ch., Ffx) or flat (Ffx city) when compared to 06 levels.

    Yes, Manassas & some other outer areas are up, and yes they are all up from the sizzling days of price wars & short supply. However, the point is they are trending down. Compare the inner burbs to an area like Flip Vegas, NV or Flip-oenix, AZ. Have you SEEN their numbers - truly astounding. By contrast, if our numbers are going down, it suggests no serious drop in prices is needed to get the markets back into balance (at least compared to the drops the outer burbs & flipvilles must experience).

    ReplyDelete
  54. anon 11:20.

    Were you around a year or so ago when Datahead did an actual compaison, factoring inflation and interest rates? The conclusion (and this was prior to price drops): It costs the same now as it did in the early 80's. Sorry, but that dog don't hunt.

    va

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  55. "It costs the same now as it did in the early 80's."

    Reminds me of a quote:

    "Interesting, if true"

    Which it isn't.

    ReplyDelete
  56. "By contrast, if our numbers are going down, it suggests no serious drop in prices is needed to get the markets back into balance."

    I can say "the sun will come up tomorrow morning" but there's only so long I will argue the point until I just say "get back to me at 7:30am."

    ReplyDelete
  57. I said...
    "The OFHEO HPI numbers get released on the last Thursday of every month (e.g. today)."

    Dammit! I forgot the OFHEO numbers are released quarterly, not monthly.

    ReplyDelete
  58. A quick clarification on my comment; it probably comes across like "hey, stupid, don't you know the sun rises every day?" but really it's meant more as "by the time we're done debating it, it will have been proven."

    ReplyDelete
  59. The problem is that we will never be done "debating."

    We are dealing with people that are still trying to argue that there isn't even a bubble. They will still be claiming they were right all along regardless of what happens or how stupid it makes their earlier statements look.

    Heck, Lance is still here despite countless moronic predictions, assertions, and outright lies.

    ReplyDelete
  60. "there's only so long I will argue the point until I just say "get back to me at 7:30am."

    Point taken...and so be it. This might have been a turning point for this BH. To use your analogy, the sun is down and until recently I didnt even have a watch to gauge how far we have to go. Well, I think I just found one - it says about 1:00am. We still have a looong way to go (i.e. prices still need to fall), but at least now I have an idea of what time it is.

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  61. anon 12:19

    My forecasts have been on record here for two years. As you are "anon", there is obviously no way to know what you have said in the past. You could be one of those 80% drop in prices people for all we know.

    Lance's situation has been made into the perfect strawman so many times, it's ridiculous. He did well. Get over it.

    va

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  62. "You could be one of those 80% drop in prices people for all we know."

    One of those?

    I doubt there is a single person that seriously expects a price decline of that extent.

    The only people I see throwing out numbers like that are the permabulls. (which is odd, because in the past you guys used to say 50%, I guess you had to raise the standard of what is unreasonable huh?)

    ReplyDelete
  63. va said "He did well. Get over it"

    I guess your judgement on what doing well means is different then mine.

    He bought a place for 900k in 2005 that is worth 850k (max) in 2007. (go look it up) I call this NOT DOING WELL. But that is just me. Well, me and every other person with a calculator and a normal concept of what doing well means.
    bob

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  64. va. investor said: "The regional cost of living is very high and has been as far back as I can remember."

    Median price in NOVA in September 2000 was $203,000.

    Median price today is $440,000.

    Does your memory not go back very far or was that an intentionally false statement?

    ReplyDelete
  65. bob,

    You conveniently leave out a few things. How about the condo he sold at the peak to trade into a safer investment (and long-time family home). Interesting how you know exactly what his house is worth (based on tax assessments?). You should be an appraiser! How much did you make on your condo bob? I guess your present home has a 5% 30yr fixed rate loan?

    I thought that we just had a lengthy thread on assessments. It's a crap shoot unless you are in a subdivision. No, the people who have lost are in Gainesville and Winchester and Woodbridge.

    You should be congratulated on your crystal ball. I'm sure you bought in 1998 or 99 or 2000 or 2001 or 2002 or 2003. Oh, but you are probably one of the striking majority here that was simply not "in a position" to buy until 2005 - when you brilliantly saw a bubble. LOL. At least you were able to short all the builders!

    va

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  66. "No, the people who have lost are in Gainesville and Winchester and Woodbridge."

    Total BS, those were the first to get hit. Price drops, and significant ones, are creeping inward... in North Bethesda, North Springfield (inside the Beltway)...just stop posting if all you do is type lots of words that are demonstably untrue.

    ReplyDelete
  67. Va,

    Frankly, I've given up trying to discuss things rationally with bob et al. He probably really does think that tax assessment values are the same as fair market value. After all, he's the same guy who thinks he'll be able to buy what he feels entitled to for the price he feels is appropriate. Is it any wonder that he really and truly believes that a 2700+ sq ft SFR with detached 2-story carriage house in Dupont Circle is FMV'd at 850k (max)?

    The guy is living in a dream. So are a lot of the BHs posting here. And you can't argue with people who are delusional. With that said, I think I'm going to just sit back and observe for a while.

    ReplyDelete
  68. "Is it any wonder that he really and truly believes that a 2700+ sq ft SFR with detached 2-story carriage house in Dupont Circle is FMV'd at 850k (max)?"

    I dont think he is delusional, I think it is more of a urban/suburban way of looking at things. For a lot of suburbanites (which is probably most of America) they look at the people living in the cities and they just dont "get it". They see no value in it, and thus find it irrational for anyone with an income and education to live there.

    I used to be one of their ranks. But after moving into an urban area a few years ago, I can honestly I like my way of life alot more here than I did when I lived out in suburbia.

    I dont mean to come off as elitist - instead I think it is just different strokes for different folks. As it turns out however, alot of my neighbors (also converts) think the same way about the city as I do - and thus there are enough of us to reflect those choices in the prices of housing.

    ReplyDelete
  69. lance said
    " I think I'm going to just sit back and observe for a while."

    Just like you said you were going to before. Oh, and you live in a townhome, not a SFR. Big difference. I think there are places in DC that are worth their price. Georgetown, Great falls, etc. Maybe something near the whitehouse, but other then that DC is pretty crappy. I think montgomery county and arlington are pretty crappy also. Bad zoning, section 8 dispersed everywhere. The SFH neighborhoods no longer exist.

    Lance, you are the only one that is delusional. You still think your townhome is worth 2million. TAX ASSESSMENTS MATTER. If you have a 2million dollar home do you really think that the city wont want their money? I am not saying its the b'all end'all, but it matters. I zillowed your house, its dropping their too. I guess that doesnt matter either.

    The fact remains. 2005 was the peak of the bubble, everyone is calling it a bubble, its a bubble. We are seeing headlines like, "worst sales numbers ever", "first median home price drop ever", things are not good and getting worse. You live in your fantasy world for as long as you can.

    Oh and VA, I have a family friend that owns something like 30 million dollars in apartments and real estate, the last thing he has time for or does is blog. So, again, dazzle us with how clever you are.
    bob

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  70. "other then that DC is pretty crappy. I think montgomery county and arlington are pretty crappy also."

    Shows my earlier point exactly. Anon 2:41 - it doesnt matter what you think about those areas, what matters is that there are alot (or at least enough) of people who think they are worth it and will pay enough for it to support those prices.

    This is what makes a market a market. Ever watch antiques road show and wonder why in the hell someone would pay 10K for some useless faberge egg or whatever? I wonder that too, but thats because you and I dont value that asset. However, other people do and thats what sets the market price. Again different strokes for different folks.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Anon 2:50 ... you are wise beyond your years. Enjoy your good decisions.

    ReplyDelete
  72. yesimasockpuppettooOctober 25, 2007 6:22 PM

    What I feared has come to pass. David's infernal Lancebot(tm)machine has learned sockpuppeteering.

    When this blog has been taken over by insane androids in Century 21 gold jackets, don't say I didn't warn you.

    ReplyDelete
  73. Lord Lance shall not speak again on this matter. Be forewarned.

    Thus the Chronical of Lance records in this the unfrothiest of years, 2007.

    ReplyDelete
  74. Hey Lance,

    Here're more questions.

    Why do the BH's say that prices have fallen, close in? I've been looking for signs of that but have not found any real numbers.

    Why do they think that the subprime problems affect an area where the "cheap" house is worth a half million?

    Why, why would someone choose to drive a hour or two to work when they can be home in 15 minutes, put their feet up and blog away?

    ReplyDelete
  75. "Why do the BH's say that prices have fallen, close in?"

    Washington D.C.
    From: 09/01/2007 to 09/30/2007 Statistics generated on: 10/09/2007

    Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 222,879,288 $ 353,753,262 - 37.00 %
    Average Sold Price: $ 543,608 $ 564,200 - 3.65 %
    Median Sold Price: $ 375,000 $ 455,000 - 17.58 %
    Total Units Sold: 410 627 - 34.61 %
    Average Days on Market: 69 66 4.55 %
    Average List Price for Solds: $ 578,488 $ 601,712 - 3.86 %

    You idiot...

    ReplyDelete
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    Check out http://homes.relatedlistings.com

    ReplyDelete
  77. What is this?

    Washington D.C.
    From: 09/01/2007 to 09/30/2007 Statistics generated on: 10/09/2007

    Average Sold Price: $ 543,608 $ 564,200 - 3.65 %


    Is this the 10x10 mile square (less Virginia) Washington DC?

    Is the $543,608, the average selling price in September 2007?

    What's it compared to? September 2006?

    What is it the average of? All "units"? Does that include the multi-million dollar places as well as the condo-efficiencies?

    If so, fine. I'd worry about a peak to trough drop of 20%.

    A drop of 3.65% is not even worth thinking about.

    Thank you for supplying data.

    ReplyDelete
  78. yeah kh, anon either can't read/understand data or is so angry that he's not getting "something for nothing" that he is having trouble seeing the plain truth before his eyes. Did you notice the anger and anxiousness?

    ReplyDelete
  79. Wow KH...

    I knew you were an idiot but that just takes the cake.

    Yes, that is "just" DC.

    Yes, that includes everything.

    Yes, that is compared to Sept 2006.

    Yes, you are being an idiot for singling out the "average" rather than the median.

    Those numbers are BAD.

    Dollar volume down 37%. Unit sales down 35%. Median down 17.58%.

    You look at those numbers and conclude "close in areas are fine."

    You have got to be the biggest idiot on earth.

    ReplyDelete
  80. "yeah kh, anon either can't read/understand data or is so angry that he's not getting "something for nothing" that he is having trouble seeing the plain truth before his eyes. Did you notice the anger and anxiousness?"

    Yeah, I am sure those terrible numbers mean that DC is just warming up before racing all the way to Manhattan levels.

    The bubble is popping lance. The bubble is popping in the District.

    You had a good run with the whole "sure there was a bubble out west, but not in the District" idiocy, but that is over now.

    ReplyDelete
  81. KH,

    What idiots we're dealing with ... they can't read the data that they themselves posted:

    "Washington D.C.
    From: 09/01/2007 to 09/30/2007 Statistics generated on: 10/09/2007

    Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 222,879,288 $ 353,753,262 - 37.00 %"


    Sales volume is UP 37% when it goes from 222.9M to 353.8M, not down. And to even compare to 2006 which was during the boom makes no sense. Sales volume now is of course going to be down from boom times.

    kh, the problem is that they've bet it all on the calamity David predicted ... And now that it's not occuring, they are trying hard to read into what is happening. I don't doubt for a minute that they really believe what they are claiming ... but that makes it all the more sad. They are grasping for straws. And it doesn't matter what the experts tell them, they will cherry pick that which gives them hope. In the meantime the clock ticks on.

    ReplyDelete
  82. lance said"Sales volume is UP 37% when it goes from 222.9M to 353.8M, not down"

    LOL. Lance, you read that wrong. its "-" 37 %.... What a moron. Now I know why you overpaid for a home in DC, you just didn't know any better.

    ReplyDelete
  83. Lance, I thought you said you were "just going to observe."

    ReplyDelete
  84. He's gotta be thickest guy out there. I can't believe he was loaned that much money! Scary, and no wonder we're in this mess.

    ReplyDelete
  85. "Sales volume is UP 37% when it goes from 222.9M to 353.8M, not down. "

    Hey lance... you are reading the chart backwards. Thanks for your expert opinion though.

    lol

    "kh, the problem is that they've bet it all on the calamity David predicted ... And now that it's not occuring, they are trying hard to read into what is happening. "

    The problem is that you are too stupid to even read a chart and make sense of it, let alone come to some meaningful conclusion based on that data.

    ReplyDelete
  86. "What idiots we're dealing with ... they can't read the data that they themselves posted"

    Did you just admit you were an idiot?

    Why don't you type it out for us once nicely.

    "I am an idiot because I can't read a chart"

    thanks in advance!

    ReplyDelete
  87. To interpret DC data (or any for that matter), you need to look at comparable properties, not broad stats. Ex: As gentrification bounded across the city, all the big places were gobbled up first. I.e., more bedrooms, more baths, garage, etc. The 2 beds, one bath, and street parking are still remaining. They don't sell as fast, and they don't sell for as much (b/c they are less desirable). The people who bought during the boom were buying the most desirable, and they aren't moving anytime soon. While people can look at inventory numbers until they are blue in the face, they might not be desirable inventory. The over-building of condos still dumbfounds me. Builders like EYA got it right by focusing on row dwellings. They will still sell (b/c they are desirable), and they are not dropping in price. Check the "sold" listing for desirable properties (3/3/1 and up) in MRIS -- you would be astounded at the lack of price drop.

    ReplyDelete
  88. You are completely wrong.

    100% completly wrong.

    As "gentrification bounded across the city" it went by neighborhood, not size.

    Even the smallest property in Georgetown or desirable parts of NW was in extremely high demand while even the largest properties in DC's various no-go areas drew little interest. There are still streets with numerous boarded up houses on them that would be mansions in nice parts of DC.

    Finally, you make it sound like gentrification actually took place across the whole District, it didn't.

    ReplyDelete
  89. Interesting debate. My 2 cents: unless you are purely investing (flipping) in real estate, a 15-20% eventual drop in prices off the peak should not be too alarming. For those that bought at any time before 2005 (maybe 2006), your house is still worth more (probably much more) than you paid for it. For those that bought in 2005-2006, you might lose a lot of equity so hopefully you don't HAVE to move anytime soon. You really have to separate your "home" from your investments. To the extent it IS an investment, it has to be very long term.

    My personal situation is that I bought a house in Vienna in 2006 in the mid $900K range. I am a real estate attorney and own rental properties, so I am pretty familiar with the market and KNEW prices were likely going to dip in the near future, but I bought anyways. Why? Well my wife and baby needed somewhere to live for the long haul, and we don't want to be changing schools after a few years. We want the stability of "owning" and being a member of a neighborhood and a community. At the time I bought the house I got a decent deal for 2006 (Zillow had it estimated at $1.05M), now it might be worth slightly less than I paid for it. Who cares? I don't plan on leaving that house unless I am in a pine box ....

    My guess is whatever your house is worth now is about what it will be worth in 2009-2010.

    ReplyDelete
  90. anon said
    "My guess is whatever your house is worth now is about what it will be worth in 2009-2010."

    I think that really is the concern of many, will it be? I have seen, since 2005, the amount of house I can buy went up dramatically. I have budgeted about 500-650k for a home. 20% down, 30yr fixed, etc. We make over 220k combined. In 2005 I could get a crap box, now, I am looking at a lot nicer homes in that same price range. So, for me, its not the fact that I am worried about a price drop in the home I buy, I just want value for my money. And, that value, without question or debate, has went up dramatically in the past few months.

    ReplyDelete
  91. "100% completly wrong.

    As "gentrification bounded across the city" it went by neighborhood, not size."

    The neighborhood argument is probably more correct, however I do recall seeing stories of the biggest old places over in the most no go area of all - anacostia - being renovated in
    the past few years. I still think neighborhood is a more compelling argument, but I think it may be more widespread than Anon 8:14 thinks.

    ReplyDelete
  92. Nice post 8:28 -- I agree.

    "100% Completely wrong" Yes -- small properties in Georgetown are still desirable. I think that areas was already gentrified. Yes, there are huge houses in undesirable areas. Yes, the entire city did not undergo gentrification. But in desirable areas, larger houses have maintained, and even gained value. Whether you like it or not, Lance bought in a good area. He tossed in the overproduced condo for a gem in the city. A Carriage house? Do you know how desirable those are? Anyone who has been through DCRA knows you can't expand, especially in the Historic Districts. If it ain't there, it ain't gonna be. Every inch in the City is contested.

    During the boom, when gentrification was most rampant (I think it, along with the market has slowed) larger houses were rehabed and sold first. Try to find an available 3/3/1 in Capitol Hill, Logan, etc. (places that went through the most change), the prices are still damn high, and not as many people are interested in moving out. But the 2/1/1 with street parking -- in the gentrified areas, that is all that is left, and they don't sell for as much. And that is why the data is misleading.

    ReplyDelete
  93. See you at 7:30am :-)

    ReplyDelete
  94. Thanks for the nice post. It is nice to see something other than name calling and agenda pushing.

    "My 2 cents: unless you are purely investing (flipping) in real estate, a 15-20% eventual drop in prices off the peak should not be too alarming. For those that bought at any time before 2005 (maybe 2006), your house is still worth more (probably much more) than you paid for it."

    I agree with you for the most part. I think I expect a bigger drop than you seem to be there is almost 0% chance we will see prices drop below ~2002 levels.
    Condos, far out areas, and the District will get hit worse than SFHs in nice close in areas.

    So long as you can afford your house and plan to live there for the long term there is little reason to sweat a price drop, just as there was little reason to cheer the price gains.

    "My guess is whatever your house is worth now is about what it will be worth in 2009-2010."

    As I said before, I am expecting larger declines than you seem to. I suspect prices are going to end up 20-30% off peak in most of the area and will then stagnate for quite a long time. I would guess 2012-15 would be roughly when things might start showing meaningful movement again. That would be 6-7 years from the "bottom" which I would expect sometime in late 2008, early 2009.

    ReplyDelete
  95. 2012-2015? Sounds a bit long to me. I think people will move on with their life (b/c they have to) and start buying houses again. Better job, wife, kids, need more space, better school district -- that will move prices upward at least somewhat.

    People might be terrified at the moment, and one could argue that this blog is a result of that, but after awhile, the average joe won't care/beleive constant battering the housing market is taking and get on with life. 2009 sounds prudent. The dust should have settled by then.

    See real estate atty posting above for example.

    ReplyDelete
  96. 'Better job, wife, kids, need more space, "better school district"'

    I agree, and so this leaves out DC. Nice close in burbs will be desiarable, but how many gay millonaires or filthy rich hipsters are there to buy up all of U and H streets?

    ReplyDelete
  97. 9:16

    OK -- so you live in the burbs, and don't like DC. There are many like you, don't worry.

    There are many who like DC, and not the burbs. (and there are good schools in the District, just none run by the City).

    Lets keep our distance and remain friends.

    Not every desirable property is desirable to everyone.

    And to throw in a jab -- have fun sitting on Connecticut Ave. or Route 66 in your 2.5 hour commute home in the rain today. And don't forget to drive your SUV to the Outback Steakhouse and get a bloomin onion.

    ReplyDelete
  98. "Sales volume is UP 37% when it goes from 222.9M to 353.8M, not down."

    Holy cow lance... I would have expected someone that spends all day every day bickering about RE prices in DC to at least be informed enough to know that DC sales volume is drying up, not surging.

    How the heck can you possibly be so poorly informed that you couldn't spot your own error?

    ReplyDelete
  99. "have fun sitting on Connecticut Ave. or Route 66 in your 2.5 hour commute home in the rain today. And don't forget to drive your SUV to the Outback Steakhouse and get a bloomin onion"

    Seems to me this is a pretty common theme for us city dwellers - the sameness of the suburbs is what really makes them unpalatable to us.

    In that regard, I think this is why the distant burbs are in for the biggest hit. The housing stock is completly fungible. Buyer A says "why buy this house in 'madeupname estates' when I can instead go live in 'madeupname farms'. Yes, madeupname estates has chilis and ruby tuesday and potbelly, but madeupname farms has a great outback steakhouse - but wait, 'madeupnames manor' has brick on two sides - oooh".

    This doesnt happen (at least not to the same extent) close in - and this uniqueness makes it less fungible. Buyer in dupont appreciates the sense of history "says here house was built for freed slaves - plus there is that little ethopian restaurant around the corner that was written up in the post" For him, there is no real other viable option. Thus, if he wants this house and this location because of their uniqueness - he will pay more for it (i.e. it will hold its value better) than he would if he had more choices.

    ReplyDelete
  100. "Seems to me this is a pretty common theme for us city dwellers - the sameness of the suburbs is what really makes them unpalatable to us."

    What makes no sense to me... is when people try to say that anything outside the District is the suburbs and consists of subdivisions and chain restarants.

    There are many interesting neighborhoods in Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Vienna, Mclean, etc.

    All of those areas are very much in the "city" at this point. There are huge numbers of jobs in places like Tysons Corner with more coming all the time.

    ReplyDelete
  101. "OK -- so you live in the burbs, and don't like DC. There are many like you, don't worry."

    Nope, sorry, SFH in Chevy Chase....and a DC native as well....so peddle that drivel - "uniqueness, ethiopian restaurant crap" - somewhere else to some sucker who buys it.

    ReplyDelete
  102. Man, you people in the suburbs! You don't get to have any rats or roaches. No puke-filled gutters on Saturday and Sunday mornings? Decent police, and schools! HAH! Low crime rates? Who would want that?

    ReplyDelete
  103. "Man, you people in the suburbs! You don't get to have any rats or roaches. No puke-filled gutters on Saturday and Sunday mornings? Decent police, and schools! HAH! Low crime rates? Who would want that?"

    I am the Chevy Chase person...and that is one thing that has always baffled me....live in a Georgetown townhouse for what? Common walls with your neighbors? Drunks pissing a puking in your yard? No parking for a mega-bucks house? For history and uniqueness as touted by some a-hole real estate POS trying to sell the place? F-that. No way.

    ReplyDelete
  104. "There are many interesting neighborhoods in Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Vienna, Mclean, etc."

    I wholeheartedly agree. I live in OT Alexandria - love hearing the sound of the church bells where George Washington worshiped - I and my neighbors pay dearly for it.

    "so peddle that drivel -"uniqueness, ethiopian restaurant crap" - somewhere else to some sucker who buys it."

    "and that is one thing that has always baffled me....live in a Georgetown townhouse for what?"

    It doesnt matter what you think these things are important, what matters is that there are alot (or at least enough) of people who think they are worth it and will pay enough for it to support those prices.

    This is what makes a market a market. Ever watch antiques road show and wonder why in the hell someone would pay 10K for some useless faberge egg or whatever? I wonder that too, but thats because you and I dont value that asset. However, other people do and thats what sets the market price. Again different strokes for different folks.

    ReplyDelete
  105. Old Town Alexandria? And you are bashing suburban commutes? Heck, someone driving from Garrett Park to a downtown job via Conn. Ave has it better. Having to cross the river sucks. It is always a crapshoot.

    ReplyDelete
  106. "why buy this house in 'madeupname estates' when I can instead go live in 'madeupname farms'. Yes, madeupname estates has chilis and ruby tuesday and potbelly, but madeupname farms has a great outback steakhouse - but wait, 'madeupnames manor' has brick on two sides - oooh".

    LMFAO!!! - You hit the nail right on the head, (and clearly struck a nerve with some people too). I am a former exurbanite - interior areas like Del Ray had no real appeal to me - I didnt "get it" until I started spending extensive time there.

    Six years later, I can honestly say it is the best move (for quality of life reasons) I ever made. But as someone said - different strokes for different folks I guess.

    ReplyDelete
  107. "Old Town Alexandria? And you are bashing suburban commutes?"

    Actually its a 10 minute walk for me - or 2 minutes in the car on days like today. Even if I was commuting into the city - I would gladly take my crapshoot drive (or alternatively 5 minute walk to metro) over some friends of mine who live in Ashburn and work downtown.

    ReplyDelete
  108. Lord Lance shall not look to the past and commands us to pick cherries.

    Tremble serfs to the words recorded by the chronicle of Lance in the only year on record, 2007.

    ReplyDelete
  109. I love how Lance is avoiding this thread now because he made himself look like a tool calling us idiots because HE couldn't read a chart.

    He just posted in the thread below...

    ReplyDelete
  110. This is 8:28am. I agree that there will be people wantint to live in the suburbs and in the city, but I do think there are less people who want to drive an hour plus to work! So the really far flung outer suburbs are more at risk of the steeper price drops IMO. I recognize that there are more jobs in Reston and Dulles than ever before, but there are still not a lot of jobs out in Leesburgh. Our house sits on an acre lot in Vienna, so we are 10 minutes to Tysons and 30-40 minutes to downtown DC. I think that area will be in demand for some time (hopefully).

    ReplyDelete
  111. Just quoting VA (CLOWN) Investor,

    "Personally, I don't like to have alot of debt and have always bought under my level of affordibility on my residences. This has allowed me to have vacation homes and rentals, and stocks and bonds and cash."

    See how rich she is? How crass can you be? VA INVESTOR SHOWS US!

    ReplyDelete
  112. Anon 1:32,

    jealousy isn't a pretty thing.

    va_investor didn't sit around criticising others' successes as you are doing. she learned from them instead ... and that is why she can now talk about all she has. she has earned that right.

    ReplyDelete
  113. Hey Lance!

    "What idiots we're dealing with ... they can't read the data that they themselves posted"

    lol

    ReplyDelete
  114. Lord Lance sayith that only pretty things may be in his presence and that only land owners and his consorts may speak.

    So it is recorded in the chronicals of the greatest realestate frenzy in the history of man, 2007.

    ReplyDelete
  115. ".. Did you notice the anger and anxiousness?"

    Yes and I don't get it. His table was ambiguous, it had the future where most people put the past.

    I asked him to clarify it, giving him the opportunity to point out anything interesting.

    What do I get? Crankiness.

    Go figure these BH's. I'm still waiting for evidence of price drops in Alexandria, substantial ones that I can use to get my taxes reduced.

    What do I care about equity if I'm not a flipper?

    ReplyDelete
  116. "There are huge numbers of jobs in places like Tysons Corner with more coming all the time."

    Mmmm... sweeet. Working in McLean at this time of year means adding nearly an hour to your drive home *just to get a few miles away from the mammoth shopping malls.*

    Then you have your "regular" commute the rest of the way back to MadeUpName Farms, and we all know how smoothly that goes in the greater Washington area.

    Enjoy!

    ReplyDelete
  117. anon 1:32 said

    "how crass can you be!".

    Well, I guess you and your fellow BH's don't want to become wealthy, because that would be, ah...crass.

    You'd rather see people who have, unfairly (of course) moved ahead of you "up the ladder" crash and burn because of their GREED. Yes, they don't deserve the benefits of having bought a home 5 or more years ago, you do! Never mind that you didn't buy. You had your (very valid) reasons and you are far more deserving.

    I get it. How stupid of me to go out on so many limbs 20 or 25 yrs ago. Please, come and take my keys. Afterall, who is more deserving? Me, with my "dumb luck" or you poor gen x and y people.

    ReplyDelete
  118. Whomever said Tysons is a city.....ummmm No.

    Not even close. Not at all.

    ReplyDelete
  119. I am the Chevy Chase person...and that is one thing that has always baffled me....live in a Georgetown townhouse for what? Common walls with your neighbors? Drunks pissing a puking in your yard? No parking for a mega-bucks house? For history and uniqueness as touted by some a-hole real estate POS trying to sell the place? F-that. No way.

    ___________________________

    From another DC native. party walls? That is a poor, poor argument. Shame on you. Drunks pissing in your yard -- no, that would be the teenagers in the burbs who get piss drunk while their parents spend 4 hours a day in a car and are too tired to do anything/care. And if you buy a mega-bucks house -- it has parking. That is one of the finer city luxuries. Unloading groceries with ease.

    And the only place I've ever had my car broken into was in suburban Fairfax Virginia in a lilly white burb. I saw three punks grab a book of CD's and then peel out in their mom's Range Rover.

    Chevy Chase has character. Just a very bland one.

    ReplyDelete
  120. I think most of the people who bash the city proper are too intimidated by it.

    I could totally understand someone wanting to live in the country. The solitude and wide open spaces are very appealing.

    But the burbs? It's urban-lite (half the calories, but you eat twice as much) I'd end up talking to some guy named Harold about grass seed.

    No thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  121. theycallmemrsockpuppetOctober 27, 2007 1:22 AM

    Wow. I check back after a day and I find David's Lancebot (tm) is posting in two threads, with its army of sockpuppets in full cry. If there is ever proof of its inhuman nature, nothing mortal could go so long without food, without sleep, or a real job, for that matter.

    David, you only think you can control your creation. End this evil experiment before it actually develops consciousness.

    ReplyDelete
  122. hi everyone

    I've been following this blog for 2 years i think and haven't posted here before but would like to make a few comments.

    David, this is a great site and you have done a service by providing your posts and a forum for the lively debate


    8:55 am
    you are right, city life is great if you can afford it.

    lance
    depending on what you can afford IT IS NOT ALWAYS A GOOD TIME TO BUY

    there seems to be some disagreement about the direction of the realestate market. the numbers are in everywhere. bloated inventory, reduced prices, cancelled contracts.

    i do not work in real estate but in the resource sector. one item that caught my attention was the comment on the vacancy rate and when it starts to exceed 5% its a painful time i think for the property owners but also as a reflection of the general economy.

    oil $90 barrel

    steel up
    copper up
    wheat all time high of 9.60 bu
    soybeans 10.00 bu
    gold 780+

    my point is we are in a period where the input costs of everything you buy will go up and be reflected in the retail price. this means real inflation. whiich will mean interest rates are going to go up.

    it hasn't been mentioned before so i thought i would. if interest rates rise real property values will decline. mortgage rates can become punitive. so even after the wave of selling related to all the inappropriate mortgages out there, there will be another wave related to interest rate(above 6%) inaffordability. these will not be people with liars loans. this wave will be affected by higher unemployment.

    baby boomers are retiring. that means liquidating assets and spending the money and or dying and setling the estate. this wave will last 15 years anyway. this guarantees repeated shocks to the stock markets but i do not know how severe. it won't be going up in value against inflation. so is your money safe?? I don't think so.

    any shock to the stock markets which are at inflated levels also will result in margin calls and other asset class liquidations.

    tons of cheap credit out there. record credit card debt, city debt, county debt, state debt and national debt. there are other bubbles that have to pop yet. too much cheap monopoly money chasing all asset classes except precious metals.

    I appreciate this site for educating those that found it. other thanks to " another fucked borrower" website.

    anyway my perspective is to be prudent and live within your means and I know some visitors here have more resources others of us don't. Its a joke that condo's in my city in canada are 300k. suckers are buying them.

    get out of debt and buy physical gold and silver. before this is all over gold will go to 4000K. silver maybe $150-200.

    pass the popcorn Neil

    a canadian renter

    ReplyDelete
  123. a canadian tenant for all time wrote: "condo's in my city in canada are 300k. suckers are buying them. "

    Check this report out, especially near the bottom.

    "We have chateaux priced at more than 50 million euros ($65 million)," says Thierry Journiac of Terra Cognita who said owners of the country's priciest properties very rarely make public listings. 'But, in general, the most expensive estates in France are private mansions inside Paris called 'hotels particuliers' with prices which can be above 100 million euros ($130 million).'

    and

    And while no one besides Indian steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal has ever shelled out more than $100 million for a home (he did so in 2005, when he snapped up a Kensington townhouse for $127 million ), there are plenty available.

    So I looked up Kensington in Wikipedia and noticed these quotes:

    The area has some of London's most expensive streets and gardens squares, including Edwardes Square, Earls Terrace - an exclusive redevelopment of Georgian Houses, The Phillimores, and Wycombe Square - a new build development done to a very high standard. In early 2007, houses have sold in Upper Phillimore Gardens for in excess of £20 million. Additionally, most neighbouring districts are regarded as exclusive residential areas, including Knightsbridge and Brompton to the east and the nearest parts of Notting Hill to the north.

    and

    This high density is not formed from high-rise buildings; instead, it has come about through the subdivision of large mid-rise Victorian and Georgian terraced houses (generally of some four to six floors) into flats. Unlike other parts of the Borough, Kensington itself has almost no high-rise buildings - the exception being Cromwell Road's Holiday Inn, a 27-storey hotel.

    The Kensington map looks strangely like Lance's Washington DC.

    The Wikipedia street scene, well, is that Lance crossing S Street with a backpack?

    -kh (aka Lancebot3)

    ReplyDelete
  124. And you think that DC is somehow on par with London or Paris? LOL...

    DC isn't even in the top 5 US cities...

    NY, LA, Chicago, Boston, even Atlanta , Houston and Dallas make DC look like a backwater.

    DC would be lucky to count itself among the second tier cities in the US.

    Minneapolis, Denver, Pittsburgh etc, at BEST.

    Have you ever left the are KH or are you one of those idiots that spent their whole life here and actually believes DC is something special?

    ReplyDelete
  125. "spent their whole life here..."

    This phrase clearly indicates that the person who wrote it lives "in" DC.

    OK. You are arguing that DC is a second-rate place and the people who live in it and defend it are laughable.

    So... what are you doing "here" in DC? Can't quite make the cut elsewhere, so you stay "here" in a second-rate ("at best") town?

    Suspend disbelief for a moment, and move DC proper to the middle of Nebraska. Now, what do you have in the middle of Nebraska? The Capital of the United States of America: Washington, District of Columbia.

    And what do you have back "here" now that DC is in the middle of Nebraska? Some suburbs that revolve around shopping malls. (See: White Flint, Bethesda, Tysons Corner, Clarendon, Reston, Ballston, Silver Spring, etc.)

    I'll see you "here" the next time you attend a concert, or a play, or a major sporting event, or seek to dine at a good restaurant, or to socialize in an interesting place, or to attend one of the better universities in the region. Perhaps I'll even see you "here" when you show up every day, day after day, to earn your living before heading back to the suburbs in the evening because being "here" just isn't good enough for you.

    Shop on.

    -nate

    ReplyDelete
  126. Forgot to list "Old Town Alexandria". Basically a big outdoor shopping mall. Kinda feels like Clarendon, except bigger and older.

    ReplyDelete
  127. "OK. You are arguing that DC is a second-rate place and the people who live in it and defend it are laughable."

    I said it wasn't comparable to London or Paris and that housing heads who keep trying to make such comparisons are just showing off their ignorance.


    "Suspend disbelief for a moment, and move DC proper to the middle of Nebraska. Now, what do you have in the middle of Nebraska? The Capital of the United States of America: Washington, District of Columbia.

    And what do you have back "here" now that DC is in the middle of Nebraska? Some suburbs that revolve around shopping malls. (See: White Flint, Bethesda, Tysons Corner, Clarendon, Reston, Ballston, Silver Spring, etc.)"


    BTW... you just made my point for me.

    DC has some government jobs and that is about it.

    Every other city on that list has huge amounts of business and commerce. What does DC have? ... some government jobs.

    As for concerts, sports etc... nothing every other city I listed doesn't have.

    That is the whole point, DC is a pretty ordinary city. Don't waste our time trying to compare it to London or Paris. It isn't even running in the A league here in the US.

    ReplyDelete
  128. "DC is a pretty ordinary city"

    The CBO, Congressional Budget Office, says that the Pentagon will spend $2.4 Trillion on the war.

    The CBO and Pentagon are both in Washington.

    ReplyDelete
  129. "Whomever said Tysons is a city.....ummmm No.

    Not even close. Not at all."

    "Fairfax County has approved an ambitious expansion of Tysons Corner Center that will bring 3.5 million square feet of development to the area surrounding a future expansion of Metrorail.

    The county's board of supervisors agreed Tuesday to support a plan by California-based Macerich Co. (NYSE: MAC) that would build 1.4 million square feet of office space, 1,385 residential units, a 300-room hotel and 200,000 square feet of retail space to the intersection of Routes 7 and 123 in McLean. The project will take 10 to 15 years to build out and is expected to coincide with Metro's $4 billion expansion project that will create four stations in Tysons Corner."

    The pentagon is ~3.5 million square feet for comparison purposes.

    ReplyDelete
  130. Move DC to Nebraska and "What does DC have? ... "

    The center of power in the world would still be DC... and DC would be in the middle of Nebraska.

    And millions of world travelers would still visit DC (in NB) every year because the place is the touchstone for modern history. This country has shaped world history (for better and worse), and this city is the tangible manifestation of that influence. Next you are going to argue that the Declaration and the Constitution are insignificant and don't deserve the attention they get in the National Archives, (which, as you know, is in DC)

    -nate

    ReplyDelete
  131. ""DC is a pretty ordinary city"

    The CBO, Congressional Budget Office, says that the Pentagon will spend $2.4 Trillion on the war.

    The CBO and Pentagon are both in Washington."

    I can't tell if you are joking or are actually that slow.

    First off, the Pentagon is not in "Washington" according to our various "everything outside the District is a suburb" dimwits.

    Second, where do you think that money is going to be spent?

    Defense contractors are spread out all over the country. Spending for the war is spread out all over the world.

    The company building the new ~$600 million embassy in Baghdad is Kuwaiti for instance...

    ReplyDelete
  132. "The project will take 10 to 15 years to build out and is expected to coincide with Metro's $4 billion expansion project that will create four stations in Tysons Corner."

    One Metro line to Tyson's could not possibly serve the bloated volume of traffic into/out of the area now. And you're arguing that the above-ground Metro, which may be there in a minimum of 10 years, will be a good thing AFTER another 1.4 million SF are built out there?

    The Metro to Tyson's is obsolete now, and construction hasn't even started. The fact that it is being built on the surface (rather than underground) is going to have what effect on the traffic out there? And for how long will the construction disrupt traffic? That's right, you'll need to get up early and leave home by 3AM to make it into/out of Tyson's in less than 2 hours.... 10 years from now. Good things come to those who wait.

    ReplyDelete
  133. "First off, the Pentagon is not in "Washington" according to..."

    The area upon which the Pentagon and most of Arlington currently sit WAS part of Washington, DC at one point.

    See, this thing called the "Civil War" happened, where Virginia was the capital of the rebellion against the United States. The secessionist Virginia government essentially took the Arlington land from the government of the United States (HQ'd in DC).

    That's why Robert E. Lee's estate home became what you now know as "Arlington Cemetery." See, hundreds of thousands of people died in the "Civil War" because Virginia's economy was based upon slave labor, and Virginians wanted it to stay that way and were willing to kill Americans for it. So the US Government took Lee's house and started burying the dead on his land. (It was sort of an "in your face" political statement at the time.)

    A striking photographic image from the period shows cannon ringing the US Capitol building (in DC) to protect Lincoln's inaguration ceremony from the traitor army which pledged allegiance to its leaders in Richmond, VA, which is also the nexus of the tobacco industry.

    Cigarette, anyone? Ahhh, Virginia.

    Now, repeat after me: "Personal Property Tax = VA"

    David? Nothing changes in this life. Nothing. Ever. Changes.... Ever.

    ReplyDelete
  134. Defense Contracts? Has anyone heard of the "Navy Yard" in Washington, DC? Anyone? Anyone?

    Bueller?

    ReplyDelete
  135. "Defense contractors are spread all over the Country"

    Care to comment on today's WAPO article (Business Section Page One) on the decrease in unemployment for NOVA. Down from 2.3% to 2.1% YOY, with professional business services leading the way. Jobs up 1.7% or 21,800 new jobs created in the past year.

    How does this affect RE in NOVA and the region?

    ReplyDelete
  136. Keeping the Virginians out of DC, one 100 pound shell at a time...

    (click for a pic)

    ReplyDelete
  137. "First off, the Pentagon is not in "Washington" according to our various "everything outside the District is a suburb" dimwits."

    Hey, this dimwit is trying to get DC to annex Alexandria so my real estate taxes can zoom up, er, no wait, that's not it.

    "Second, where do you think that money is going to be spent?"

    All over the planet but marketeers will converge on the Pentagon to ink the deals. That's the point of Pentagon City, Crystal City and Rosslyn, huddle up close to the feeding trough.

    ReplyDelete
  138. "As for concerts, sports etc... nothing every other city I listed doesn't have."

    Anon, you keep changing your context. Your basic premise is that DC is beneath you, but you clearly avail yourself to its amenities.

    I'm not arguing that it isn't beneath you. I'm simply stating that if it is beneath you, as you clearly beleive, then you should stay out. Why is that so difficult to grasp? Please, feel free to never come to DC again.

    -nate

    ReplyDelete
  139. "Houston and Dallas make DC look like a backwater"

    Please, say no more. Take your excess body fat and climb into your Ford F-250 dualie and drive to the nearest Checkers. They're having a special on bacon cheesburgers for ignorant rednecks.

    ReplyDelete
  140. "Keeping the Virginians out of DC, one 100 pound shell at a time..."

    Oh man, I sure do miss the good old days!

    ReplyDelete
  141. "The center of power in the world would still be DC... and DC would be in the middle of Nebraska."

    Hello? UN? EU? China? Russia?

    There is no "center of power in the world."

    If you still think that you probably spend your afternoons playing with transformers.

    ReplyDelete
  142. "good old days!"

    Hey,

    They are still fighting the war of "Northern Agression" down here!

    va. (but a northerner)

    ReplyDelete
  143. "One Metro line to Tyson's could not possibly serve the bloated volume of traffic into/out of the area now. And you're arguing that the above-ground Metro, which may be there in a minimum of 10 years, will be a good thing AFTER another 1.4 million SF are built out there?

    The Metro to Tyson's is obsolete now, and construction hasn't even started. The fact that it is being built on the surface (rather than underground) is going to have what effect on the traffic out there? And for how long will the construction disrupt traffic? That's right, you'll need to get up early and leave home by 3AM to make it into/out of Tyson's in less than 2 hours.... 10 years from now. Good things come to those who wait."

    You think tunneling underground is faster? You are out of your damn mind if you believe what those NIMBY idiots are trying to push with the tunnel idea.

    Traffic is a problem, but it is a problem you can only solve with more and better infrastructure. The metro will be a large step in the right direction, as will the new HOT lanes that are being added to the beltway with special on and off ramps for Tysons.

    Besides... look at traffic in the District. You are just bent out of shape because more and more the center of commerce in the area is moving out of DC and somehow you think that makes your dick shrink.

    ReplyDelete
  144. "The area upon which the Pentagon and most of Arlington currently sit WAS part of Washington, DC at one point."

    Yeah, and at one point we were all subjects of the English Crown.

    Just admit you were wrong you twit. Is it really that painful? If you find it is... you should learn to think before opening your mouth.

    ReplyDelete
  145. "Please, say no more. Take your excess body fat and climb into your Ford F-250 dualie and drive to the nearest Checkers. They're having a special on bacon cheesburgers for ignorant rednecks."

    We have a winner.

    /this pencil-necked geek edges away.

    ReplyDelete
  146. "Anon, you keep changing your context. Your basic premise is that DC is beneath you, but you clearly avail yourself to its amenities."

    Beneath me? Not at all...

    It is just a pretty ordinary city. Nothing wrong with that, but there is no cause for delusions of grandeur. DC is not even a top 5 city in this country, let alone the world.

    Stop wasting our time trying to compare it to places like London , Paris, Boston, Tokyo, NY, LA, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Seoul etc

    It doesn't run in that league. And yes... all of those cities have sports teams and concerts...

    ReplyDelete
  147. "Please, say no more. Take your excess body fat and climb into your Ford F-250 dualie and drive to the nearest Checkers. They're having a special on bacon cheesburgers for ignorant rednecks."

    You think your petty stereotypes bother me in the slightest?


    Barry Arrested on Cocaine Charges in Undercover FBI, Police Operation
    Sources Say Mayor Used Crack in Downtown D.C. Hotel Room
    By Sharon LaFraniere
    Washington Post Staff Writer
    Friday, Jan. 19, 1990; Page A01

    D.C. Mayor Marion Barry was arrested on charges of possession of cocaine last night at the downtown Vista International Hotel after a fast-moving undercover investigation by the FBI and D.C. police that began several weeks ago, according to law enforcement officials and sources familiar with the arrest.

    ReplyDelete
  148. ""Please, say no more. Take your excess body fat and climb into your Ford F-250 dualie and drive to the nearest Checkers. They're having a special on bacon cheesburgers for ignorant rednecks."

    We have a winner."

    Yeah, so I know no one here is going to care in the slightest...
    but there aren't in Checkers in Dallas or Houston. There is only one in the state of Texas.

    We now return to your usual ignorant drivel.

    ReplyDelete
  149. "Yeah, so I know no one here is going to care in the slightest...
    but there aren't in Checkers in Dallas or Houston. There is only one in the state of Texas."

    Uh, you're arguing from the point of someone who lives just outside of DC. Not from the point of someone who lives in TX. Which would mean that you have plenty of Checkers franchises to choose from.

    If not, and you really are in Texas, say so. Otherwise, STFU.

    (Don't think people didn't notice how you failed to defend yourself against the "excess body fat" comment - you only made an effort to defend yourself against the irrelevant "proximity to Checkers" notion... its irrelevant because you aren't in TX.)

    ReplyDelete
  150. "Stop wasting our time trying to compare it to places like London , Paris, Boston, Tokyo, NY, LA, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Seoul etc"

    Sigh. I have never made the comparison. I've only said that you should stay out.

    -nate

    ReplyDelete
  151. Myself?

    I was just pointing out that Checkers doesn't exist for all practical purposes in Texas.

    I am in great shape if you are really curious, but then I am also rich and good looking.

    You can take that or leave it. What difference does it make to me?

    ReplyDelete
  152. "You think tunneling underground is faster?"

    I never said that, nor did I allude to the ideaq.

    It is an obsolte project. That is what I said.

    How many hours per week do you spend in an automobile now? Be honest.

    ReplyDelete
  153. "look at traffic in the District"

    I do look at it. I see it as I walk past the traffic jams. (consisting mostly of cars with MD and VA plates)

    ReplyDelete
  154. "I am in great shape if you are really curious"

    What is your resting heart rate? What is your max heart rate? How fast can you cover 1 mile? (without the use of your truck or any mechanical means)

    Quantify your "great shape" assertation with some metrics.

    ReplyDelete
  155. "Sigh. I have never made the comparison. I've only said that you should stay out."

    LOL, transformers!

    If someone doesn't like your city they can just stay out huh?

    Or you are gonna what? Quietly walk away quickly?

    Take a hike kid, just because someone lives in this area doesn't mean they have to pretend the District isn't a slum.

    ReplyDelete
  156. "Quantify your "great shape" assertation with some metrics."

    I can do a 5k in <16 minutes.

    I haven't raced a mile since college.

    ReplyDelete
  157. "I can do a 5k in <16 minutes."

    I actually laughed out loud.

    Sure, I beleive you.

    And please, stay out of the slum. I wouldn't want you to get hurt. (unless coming to the slum is how you make your living; in which case, good luck!)

    ReplyDelete
  158. "If someone doesn't like your city they can just stay out huh?"

    Actually, it is a sign of mental illness if you ("you")despise something ("DC") and yet you won't stop interacting with it. That's my point. You can dislike it all you want, but please, stop proselytizing your disfunction.

    ReplyDelete
  159. "Take a hike kid"

    Actually, I'm your daddy.

    ReplyDelete
  160. "Houston and Dallas make DC look like a backwater."

    Personally, I prefer Houston's National Gallery of Art to Washington's National Gallery of Art. *Any* day of the week.

    (cough, hack, cough, ahem.)

    ReplyDelete
  161. Where’s the Pentagon? Civil War? METRO NIMBY? Don’t get me wrong, all interesting topics but, put simply, homes are priced lower this year than last. No matter where the Pentagon is located.

    ReplyDelete
  162. "Yeah, and at one point we were all subjects of the English Crown."

    And that is precisely why there is a capital city named "Washington" on the eastern seaboard of the continental United States.

    Cool how that works, huh?

    ReplyDelete
  163. "all interesting topics but, put simply, homes are priced lower this year than last. No matter where the Pentagon is located"

    Crude oil prices are at record highs, too. And all of the above topics are correlated in some fashion.

    ReplyDelete
  164. "DC is not even a top 5 city in this country, let alone the world."

    Very true but that's why there's no real estate bubble.

    Here are the top 30, in pricey land.



    Rank Location Euro per m sq £ per ft sq
    1 London 36,800 2,300
    2 Monaco 35,000 2,190
    3 New York 25,600 1,600
    4 Hong Kong 19,700 1,230
    5 Tokyo 17,600 1,100
    6 Cannes 15,000 940
    7 St Tropez 14,900 930
    8 Sydney 13,100 820
    9 Paris 12,600 790
    10 Rome 12,500 780
    11 Moscow 12,300 770
    12 Venice 10,700 670
    13 St Petersberg 10,400 650
    14 Florence 8,600 540
    15 Geneva 8,000 500
    16 Madrid 7,500 470
    17 Dublin 7,400 470
    18 Milan 6,700 420
    19 Birmingham 6,600 420
    20 Mumbai 6,500 410
    21 Edinburgh 5,700 360
    22 Manchester 5,100 320
    23 Cape Town 4,500 280
    24 Brussels 3,200 200
    25 Prague 2,600 160
    26 Delhi 2,100 130
    27 Beijing 2,000 130
    28 Shanghai 2,000 120
    29 Kuala Lumpur 1,600 100
    30 Sao Paulo 1,400 90


    Mumbai is #20 at £410 per square foot. Mumbai????

    If DC moves up to compete with Mumbai prices, a 2,500 square foot lot would be edging onto $2 million.

    No, no way, that might make Lance a multi-millionaire. Anyway, KH has no idea what land is worth in foreign capitals

    ReplyDelete
  165. #30 on that list is at 90.

    DC isn't even on the list...

    *IF* DC were #30 at 90(and it isn't) it would need to more than quadruple its value to reach Mumbai's level.

    WTF do you think this proves?

    Yes, hypothetically *IF* DC prices reached those levels lots of people would be rich.(on paper)

    IF prices in Little Rock reached those levels a completely different set of people would suddenly be rich.

    WTF does that mean?

    nothing...

    You complain about people calling you ignorant then you post stuff like this.

    It is like a fat girl entering a wet t-shirt contest and then getting upset when people laugh. You need to learn your limitations.

    Thinking isn't for you.

    ReplyDelete
  166. Hey, thanks for the insults.

    Did anyone ever tell you that you are a bully?

    Anyway, you've missed the point.


    1) DC prices are not high by world city standards.

    2) OK, so London, Paris and Tokyo are priced way up there, everyone expected that.

    3) Mumbai? WTF? You BHs could not afford a crib in Delhi or Sao Paulo.

    4) Why is Sidney priced above Paris, isn't Australia a vast nothingness?

    5) BH's are not just clueless, they are incapable of anything beyond insults AND repeating mantra's, "Real Estate is a bubble. A bubble will burst. I said it. It must be true."

    6) If the capital of the free world or whatever this place is, is cheaper than provincial capitals, maybe there's a chance that prices and valuation will revert to a mean?

    7) WTF is going on with #20 Mumbai? Are there a bunch of lawyers there? Does the Indian CBOE report that the Indian Pentagon has 2.4 trillion dollars to hand out, so send your marketeers from all over the planet to get your fair share?

    They'll need a condo or something in the Indian Crystal City.

    8) Delhi, City #26, £130/sqft. That's about $260/sqft. A 5,000 sqft (1/8 acre) lot would be $1.3 million dollars.

    9) DC is the arm pit of world? I don't think so. Compared to Delhi? Mumbai?

    10) Then the same anon's who don't get the obvious, call me dumb? There's some serious cognitive dissonance in bubblemeter.

    11) Income and Rents gotta sustain real estate valuation? What kind of income would you have in Delhi. What are rents like there?

    12) Most of you BHs would starve there. (I probably would too.)

    13) The big one. I'm not saying that I know why the list is like that or this proves that DC real estate will zoom up. I'm providing substantive information, as I did with 2819 Russell Road, Study Group 1006, the comments from Wikipedia on Kensington. It just happens that the facts do not align with the BH religious beliefs. The fact that I say that next year and the year after, prices may be higher is not intended convince you of that. I am stating what I think.

    Believe what you will. Make whatever you can of the information. If you see a flaw in the analysis, say so.

    Going, like, "that's dumb." or "You're an idiot" only works for with nubies, who giggle, "Tee-hee."

    On Newsgroups, you'd be killfiled.

    ReplyDelete
  167. "On Newsgroups, you'd be killfiled."

    Now that threat stings. Learned your mad usenet skills on alt.flame.pizza-delivery-boy, didya?

    BTW, how weak are you that you can be "bullied" by an anon on a blog?

    How does does it feel spending a Saturday indoors posting on a blog trying to convince lesser mortals of your abilities?

    Try making a coherent point and you'll get a civil response.

    ReplyDelete
  168. "1) DC prices are not high by world city standards. "

    That is because DC is in the US where prices are generally lower and because even in the US DC isn't anywhere NEAR the top of the price spectrum.

    "2) OK, so London, Paris and Tokyo are priced way up there, everyone expected that."

    Ok, so?

    "3) Mumbai? WTF? You BHs could not afford a crib in Delhi or Sao Paulo."

    Actually, I could afford quite a bit there, or here. You must have somehow gotten the misimpression that because I am not interested in wasting money that I couldn't buy today if I decided to.

    "4) Why is Sidney priced above Paris, isn't Australia a vast nothingness?"

    Do you want a simple answer?

    "5) BH's are not just clueless, they are incapable of anything beyond insults AND repeating mantra's, "Real Estate is a bubble. A bubble will burst. I said it. It must be true.""

    Actually, we have explained numerous times, in detail, the circumstances that lead to the current RE bubble. Alan Greenspan, Paulson, Shiller, numerous industry insiders, numerous reporters and others have all offered explanations of what happened.

    At this point there is no serious debate about whether or not there is a bubble and whether or not prices will fall. I suppose if you insist on being the last person on earth to figure it out nobody can stop you.

    "6) If the capital of the free world or whatever this place is, is cheaper than provincial capitals, maybe there's a chance that prices and valuation will revert to a mean?"

    This isn't the capital of the free world. Such a place simply doesn't exist.

    Also, referring to major world cities that dwarf DC in virtually every respect as "provincial capitals" shows off a frankly stunning ignorance.

    It is churlish statements like that that betray your lack of experience outside the borders of the US.

    London, Paris, Tokyo, Beijing... Provincial capitals?

    That is some fucking news, you might want to let the Brits, French, Japanese and Chinese know, because trust me... as someone that has spent significant time in all of those cities... they would disagree with you.

    You are a classic example of the "ugly American" that educated Americans have to offer excuses for when we spend time overseas.

    Who the fuck honestly calls every other major world city a "provincial capital?" Are you that ignorant or do you just like playing the part of a buffoon?

    Wake the hell up.

    Read a book. Take a trip. Watch the BBC if you have cable. You obviously have the internet... use it!

    and please please please... if you ever do take a trip outside the country... take a cruise or something where there will be people on hand to baby-sit you.

    It is hard enough overcoming the stereotype Americans have earned abroad as being loud-mouthed buffoons who think the whole world worships them, without having a stellar example of the stereotype brought to life turned loose on the streets of a foreign capital with a thousand years of history before the city of Washington came into existence.

    I am not going to waste time with the rest of your post. You aren't worth it.

    ReplyDelete
  169. "I am not going to waste time with the rest of your post. You aren't worth it."

    There it is, again. What is it about BH's. It's all about their insecurities.

    "I could afford quite a bit there, or here. "

    "as someone that has spent significant time in all of those cities"

    Tons of remarks of their self-importance, insults, and bullying, no facts or logic to contribute.

    ReplyDelete
  170. Take a break kh, someone else needs to use the terminal at the shelter.

    You get what you give.

    ReplyDelete
  171. BTW, how weak are you that you can be "bullied" by an anon on a blog?

    You missed the point. It's not about me.

    I may not have been clear but here...

    It clearly does not bother me to be insulted.

    It is fair to call a bully, a bully.

    ReplyDelete
  172. "Take a break kh, someone else needs to use the terminal at the shelter."

    Hey, they said I could use it from dinner until lights out.

    ReplyDelete
  173. "It clearly does not bother me to be insulted."

    Good. Then you won't mind if I call you an idiot.

    Nice of you however to share the terminal. Since you have some time before lights out, you might wish to relax with some light reading. If I may suggest:

    http://tinyurl.com/3caav7

    ReplyDelete
  174. "If the capital of the free world or whatever this place is, is cheaper than provincial capitals, maybe there's a chance that prices and valuation will revert to a mean?"

    holy cow...

    Let me just second the other guy and call you the most ignorant idiot on earth.

    I may not have traveled all over the world, but I don't need to to know that you are a dumbass.

    Go to Canada sometime and see if they think they are a "province" of the US.

    You really are too stupid to be true. I hope this is just an act.

    ReplyDelete
  175. KH

    Please never leave the country.

    You would make the whole USA look like a bunch of morons.

    I think DC is a great city, but the self declared capital of the world?

    ROFLMAO

    ReplyDelete
  176. Anon 8:03,

    If you hadn't already lost your credibilty, which you had, you definitiely would have lost it when you stated:
    This isn't the capital of the free world. Such a place simply doesn't exist.

    Go back to spieling your bubblehead mantra and believing there is a bubble out there. Numerous experts, including Greenspan who you obviously are taking out of context, have said a national (or internationa) bubble is not a possilbility with real estate since all real estate is local. Incidentally, the statement by Greenspan from a few months ago which the bubbleheads conviently took out of context, supports KH's contention that the US is becoming evermore the financial and economic capital of the entire world ... as the former communist countries' economies have joined the "free world." Please try to show a bit of intelligence in your next post, 'cause otherwise you are not worth my or anyone else's time.

    Repeating your mantra won't help you get something for nothing. And you are just hurting yourself putting all your hopes in an event beyond your control instead of in your own capabilities ... Even with your weak reasoning capabilities, you'd get far further along the path of homeownership than waiting for an event that is never gonna happen.

    Happy dreaming though!

    ReplyDelete
  177. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  178. kh,

    sit back and relax and think why these bh's have to get vicious. they're nervous and anxious. they've bet their all on a failed ideology. they refuse to give up hope ... even after 3 or more long years of hoping ... all signs point to their foolishness --- and they know it --- but they can't admit it to themselves. they'll grasp at any straw out there that can be misinterpreted and reinterpreted to mean "some day that bubble will burst ... i couldn't have been so wrong as to put all my eggs in one basket ... there's gotta be a bubble out there ... the only experts that count are other bubbleheads ... all the well-established economic advisors and the well established real estate industry knows nothing ... only people that give me hope in my failed condition know anything".

    It must suck to be a bubblehead after all these years. Have some pity on 'em.

    ReplyDelete
  179. Wow lance, even by your standards that is pretty pathetic.

    Read and learn:
    ==================================
    Reuters

    House prices to drop much lower: Greenspan

    Friday September 21, 3:25 am ET

    VIENNA (Reuters) - A big overhang of property will bring U.S. house prices down further, but it is too early to say if the economy will plunge into recession, former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan was quoted as saying on Friday.

    Greenspan said in an interview with Austrian magazine Format that low interest rates in the past 15 years were to blame for the house price bubble, but that central banks were powerless when they tried to bring it under control.

    "It's a difficult situation, there is an enormous overhang on the real estate market," Greenspan was quoted as saying. "Many buildings which just have been finished can't be sold ..."

    "So far, prices have dropped only slightly. But it was enough to cause alarm around the world," he said. "Prices are going to fall much lower yet."

    "However, it is too early to answer the question about a recession. We simply don't know yet. It depends on how flexibly the economy can react," he said.

    Greenspan said deregulation and the introduction of market economies in the former Communist bloc after the Berlin Wall fell in 1989 had caused a global boom and a worldwide reduction of interest rates, which both helped fuel the property bubble.

    "There is no doubt about the fact that low interest rates for long-term government bonds have caused the real estate bubble in the United States," he said.

    "The Federal Reserve began a series of interest rate increases in 2004. We were hoping to bring the speculative excesses in the real estate sector under control. We failed. We tried it again in 2005. Failure," he said.

    =================================

    What about that don't you understand? Pay attention idiot because I am tired of correcting you.

    Read this quote three times as slowly as you must to understand it:

    "There is no doubt about the fact that low interest rates for long-term government bonds have caused the REAL ESTATE BUBBLE in the United States," he said.(that is Greenspan dimwit)

    Now, compare that to your "understanding" of the situation, such as it is.

    "Numerous experts, including Greenspan who you obviously are taking out of context, have said a national (or internationa) bubble is not a possilbility with real estate since all real estate is local." - lance

    (Oh really? Not possible? Why is he referring to the presence of the bubble then? Note he wasn't talking about IF there was a bubble, but rather discussing what caused the bubble. There is no longer any question of IF there is a bubble.)


    Do you actually believe the shit you write? I am really not sure anymore.

    For your sake I hope you aren't as stupid as you act but I suspect you are.

    You couldn't read a chart. You didn't know enough to know RE in the District is falling.(despite spending all day arguing about exactly that, WTF?) You cite Greenspan and have him saying the EXACT OPPOSITE of what he actually said.

    ReplyDelete
  180. "KH's contention that the US is becoming evermore the financial and economic capital of the entire world"

    Financial and economic capital of the entire world?

    LMAO

    DC isn't even the financial or economic capital of the east coast.

    DC isn't a major financial or economic center. Why is this so complicated?

    Hang on while I call Tokyo, NY, Chicago, London, Paris, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Geneva and a few others to let them know that DC is "evermore the financial and economic capital of the world."

    They are going to be surprised to hear that news because every city on that list, and quite a few that aren't, play FAR greater roles in global finance than DC.

    DC is barely even a blip when it comes to the global finance.

    As for economic capital? Nevermind... you are beyond help I suspect.

    ReplyDelete
  181. Lance DC is the political capital of the US, and that is about it.

    Must be nice to live in a dream world.

    ReplyDelete
  182. lance got bodyslammed again

    ReplyDelete
  183. The real question is not how an idiot like Lance was allowed to over buy a house he cannot control, but whether or not he should be bailed out. He blames this blog for his financial ruin, thats why he come back again and again. We jepordize his home sweet home so he attacks with lies and justifies the lies by blaming BH's for his misfortune.

    ReplyDelete
  184. Its fascinating to watch anti-Washington sentiment spew forth from people who live "in" DC.

    This discussion is less about RE value and more about haters and why they hate where they live.

    Life is too short to spend hatin'

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  185. "This discussion is less about RE value and more about haters and why they hate where they live."

    I'll agreee that this discussion is less about RE. I would say it's more about two mentally disturbed trolls who post all day long in an attempt to derail any real debate. Much like your post (e.g. anyone who disagrees with Aqualung and his pal is a hater) they quote out of context, make personal attacks, cry foul when called out, and, most damning, lack any real wit.

    Cool of you with your hip "hater" reference. Remember the context; don't hate the player, hate the game. And the RE game as we've known it for the past 8 years is going to get very ugly; not just for owners but the country as a whole. The bar tab is now due.

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  186. "hip "hater" reference"

    LOL!

    Analogous to Ross Perot's "Giant Sucking Sound", I'm hearing a "Giant Popping Sound"

    Unexpectedly, the sound is being generated by the bursting of both the RE markets and the heads of, well, Bubble Heads.

    ReplyDelete
  187. "lying sack"

    Good morning to you too, Lance. Once Nurse Ratched passes out your pills, can we expect similar brilliance as you post throughout the day?

    ReplyDelete
  188. this blog hasn't been this entertaining since "IHateYuppies" was a frequent commentator. That was years ago.... ah, good times. I bet he is less than a year away from buying a nice place now that prices are down across the board.

    ReplyDelete
  189. "Its fascinating to watch anti-Washington sentiment spew forth from people who live "in" DC."

    Anti-washington sentiment?

    You think just because some of us don't buy into the BS that DC is the:

    "capital of the free world and all other world cities are provincial capitals"

    or

    "the economic and financial capital of the world"

    that we must hate DC?

    DC is a decent place to be... but it simply isn't in the running among major financial, economic, or cultural centers worldwide.

    It is a nice place, there are good jobs here... but lance and the other children need to grow up. DC isn't the center of the universe.

    ReplyDelete
  190. Anon said:
    "lance and the other children need to grow up. DC isn't the center of the universe."

    And so, you've missed the point of what is so clearly before your eyes. DC isn't yet as important as it is to become. Hence why prices in DC are a relative bargain as compared to places like NYC and London. But if you believe that DC is headed toward becoming that center in ways it already isn't, then you should also believe that you won't always have the chance to purchase DC real estate at the bargain prices now available. In making your own personal assessment as to whether DC is headed toward becoming "the center of the universe" as this learned anon phrases it, keep in mind that it is already the undisputed military and political center of "the universe" (i.e., the world.) Ask the UN and the Iraqis if they wouldn't agree.

    ReplyDelete
  191. Whether DC is the capital of the known universe or the best little city in the world (sorry Reno), is irrelevant to discussion of the the RE bubble, which Captain Insano and the voices in his head that he posts here as anons will do anything to deflect.

    Lance, I realize you don't get a chance to interact much with the diplomatic corp on the trips back and forth from your bunker to pick up your government cheese, but embassy posting in DC is required by custom; if it was a career option, DC embassy personnel would happily trade their jobs for consular or UN postings in NYC. Damn, how did that UN end up in NY anyway?

    We eagerly await your rebuttal in which you recount your recollections of the embassy soirees you've attended. I'll allow you an extra minute to look up "soiree".

    And since you're the expert on DC, I'm sure you can state offhand annual tourist visits to DC and it's relative rank in the U.S. for same?

    ReplyDelete
  192. "DC isn't yet as important as it is to become. "

    According to lance... the guy who can't even read a chart and STILL won't admit that he was wrong about that...

    lol

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  193. You don't have to look far for a helping of hubris from VA. Since she is most likely busy having a slug of gin. (LOL) I will post for her:

    "Assuming I started buying 15 yrs ago and the properties have tripled and quadrupled and more; and someone else has bought them for me - what do I care whether it may or may not now be the best deployment of some of my assets?"

    (The rest of her/his post is just as priceless)

    See how smart she is? Hope this help you VA. Liquor stores close early in Virginia so I thought I would help you while you are out shopping.

    ReplyDelete
  194. The centers of all three branches of the U.S. government are in the District. Also situated in the city are the headquarters for the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the Organization of American States, the Inter-American Development Bank, and other national and international institutions, including labor unions and professional associations. Washington is the frequent location of political demonstrations and protests, large and small, particularly on the National Mall. A center of American history and culture, Washington is a popular destination for tourists, the site of numerous national landmarks and monuments, the world's largest museum complex (the Smithsonian Institution), galleries, universities, cathedrals, performing arts centers and institutions, and native music scenes.

    ReplyDelete
  195. Washington is home to numerous national landmarks and is one of the most popular tourist destinations in the United States. The National Mall is a large, open park area in the center of the city featuring many monuments to American leaders; it also serves to connect the White House and the United States Capitol buildings. Located prominently in the center of the Mall is the Washington Monument. Other notable points of interest near the Mall include the Jefferson Memorial (see right), Lincoln Memorial, Franklin Delano Roosevelt Memorial, National World War II Memorial, Korean War Veterans Memorial, Vietnam Veterans Memorial, District of Columbia War Memorial, Albert Einstein Memorial, and United States Navy Memorial.


    The Jefferson Memorial at dusk
    Smithsonian Castle
    National Museum of the American Indian
    Mount St. Sepulchre Franciscan MonasteryThe world famous Smithsonian Institution is located in the District. The Smithsonian today is a collection of free museums that includes the Anacostia Museum, Arthur M. Sackler Gallery, Hirshhorn Museum, National Air and Space Museum, National Museum of American History, National Museum of the American Indian, National Museum of Natural History, National Portrait Gallery, National Postal Museum, Smithsonian American Art Museum, Renwick Gallery and National Zoo.

    There are many art museums in D.C., in addition to those that are part of the Smithsonian, including the free National Gallery of Art, National Museum of Women in the Arts, Corcoran Gallery of Art and Phillips Collection.

    The Library of Congress and the National Archives house thousands of documents covering every period in American history. Some of the more notable documents in the National Archives include the Declaration of Independence, Constitution and Bill of Rights.

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  196. Washington, D.C. has a growing economy that is also diversifying with a decreasing percentage of federal government jobs over the current and next decade and an increasing percentage of professional and business service jobs over the same period.[29] With five Fortune 1000 companies (two of which are also Fortune 500 companies),[30] and a large support infrastructure of professional services, including law, public relations, and architecture, Washington, D.C. is one of the Gamma World Cities.[31] Washington, D.C. is also a leading city for global real estate investment, behind London, New York City, and Paris.[32][33]

    As of 2002, the federal government accounts for 27% of Washington, D.C.'s jobs.[34] The presence of many major government agencies, including the Department of Defense, National Institutes of Health, and the Food and Drug Administration, has led to business development both in the District itself as well as in the National Capital Region of Maryland and especially northern Virginia[2]. These businesses include federal contractors (defense and civilian), numerous nonprofit organizations, law firms and lobbying firms, national associations of labor and professional groups, catering and administrative services companies, and several other industries that are sustained by the economic presence of the federal government. This arrangement makes the Washington economy virtually recession-proof relative to the rest of the country, because the federal government will still operate no matter the state of the general economy, and it often grows during recessions.

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  197. The gross state product of the District in 2006 was $87.664 billion, ranking it #35 when compared with the fifty states.[35] In 2006, Expansion Magazine ranked DC among the top 10 metropolitan areas in the nation for climates favorable to business expansion.[36] In terms of commercial office space, Washington, D.C. has the 3rd largest downtown in America, only behind New York City and Chicago respectively.[37]

    Of non-government employers, Washington, D.C.'s major universities and hospitals are among the top employers with the George Washington University, Georgetown University and Washington Hospital Center as the top three. Howard University and Fannie Mae round out the top five employers in Washington, D.C.[38]

    Washington is also a global media center. Most major news outlets have bureaus in the city and Washington is home to Black Entertainment Television, C-SPAN, National Public Radio, the Washington Post Company and XM Satellite Radio. Washington's unique scenery makes it a popular location for film and television production.

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  198. D.C. has a steadily declining African American population, due to many middle-class and professional African Americans moving to the suburbs, mostly in Maryland (for example, the African American majority in Prince George's County) and Northern Virginia, Baltimore, Richmond, and Hampton Roads area of Virginia aggravated by the rising cost of living in the area.[43]

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