Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Quoted in Reuters Article Where I Criticize Lereah

In a story by Reuters titled Realtors keep bright outlook despite cloudy data, I was quoted and one of my other blogs was mentioned.

While many economists underestimated the depth of the nation's current housing slump, Lereah critics single him out for maintaining such a high-profile and upbeat appraisal for so long.

"His words harmed ordinary buyers who heard him and thought that the market was bottoming out. He knew better and that is the problem," said David Jackson, a 27-year-old computer programmer who balked at buying a home in 2005 because of ballooning prices in the Washington, D.C., area and came to see Lereah as an emblem of the runaway market. He skewers Lereah on his blog, David Lereah Watch.

Its grand to be quoted and have influence. It is disheartening, that while Lereah was at the National Association of Realtors, those who disagreed with his opinion generally had much less media exposure.

117 comments:

  1. Strange that they didn't give the job to Yun. As for Lereah, have you followed Move Inc. since he joined? Check stock symbol MOVE on the NASD.

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  2. those who disagreed with his opinion generally had much less media exposure

    Censorship of a sort. Too many vested interests to ever allow balance reporting in the media. It is sad that the skeptical approach which used to define news reporting no longer exists except among a cadre of bloggers.

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  3. Yes, I am a fat old man who is a total loser

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  4. It isn't a conspiracy so much as it is that the media is generally too lazy to do their homework or take risks.

    The US media doesn't want to challenge the people they interview or quote. If they bother to try to show both sides of the story they generally throw them both out there as if they were equal, even if they aren't.

    For a perfect example of this pull up the old stories that were being done during the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. The media generally treated the now infamous Iraqi information minister as a source with equal credibility to all others.

    You would often see a quote from a US general followed immediately by a quote from the information minister saying the exact opposite.

    It wasn't until the last couple days of the war when the information minister's statements became truly comical that the media started to treat him as a source of questionable value...

    What we are seeing here is the same thing on a smaller scale. Anyone familiar with what is going on in the housing market dismissed Learah completely a long time ago. He is clearly completely useless as a market predictor or commentator but if he still held his old position he would still be quoted over and over and over again without question by the media simply because it is too much effort and too confrontational for them to call him out.

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  5. Congrats David. thanks for saving my A$$!
    If i listened to the shilling NAR and everyone else i would have been saddled with an impossible loan to ever overcome.

    Now I wait for 50% off sales. Screw'em all.
    You conartist are not going to take advantage of me ever!

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  6. "Yes, I am a fat old man who is a total loser"

    Nah, you are a wann-be RE queen who was afraid his dream of being like other (true monied) queens in Logan that bought long ago and had hipster idiots renting in their English basements paying the mortgage for them would be gone forever if you didn't buy during the bubble craze.

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  7. Lord Lance thou are not.... old

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  8. I liken the construction of the housing mortgage bubble to the construction of the first "Death Star" Alan Greenspan is of course the Emperor. Wall street stands in for Grand Moff Tarkin, and the NAR is Darth Vader. All is well until Bear Stearns Skywalker fires a proton subprime torpedo down and open CDO shaft, and kaboom!

    http://economicdisconnect.blogspot.com/2007/10/its-quiet-too-quiet.html

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  9. Lereah’s biggest problem was not realizing that one’s credibility is much like one’s virginity, once gone it is gone forever.

    Lereah’s behaving like a lap dog to the NAR, calling the housing market the way the NAR wanted, has robbed him of any future trust the public will have in him in the near future, if not the long term future.

    Sorry I have not posted for a while, I have been busy lately, and NO, I have NOT been out house hunting!

    Buying a house at this stage of the game is about as sane as juggling knives, blindfolded.

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  10. "Buying a house at this stage of the game is about as sane as juggling knives, blindfolded."

    It just takes practice and the right knowhow. Back in the 80s I was juggling knives twice as long with one arm! These knives weren't like today either. They were dipped in poison and weighed 45 lbs each.

    Everyone should run out and buy the longest knives they can find and them throw them into the air.

    High into the air!

    Higher than high! and then they should snatch them out of the air and repeat the process! They should do this blindfolded and without a moment's hesitation. Losers hesitate.

    Winners run out and catch knives!

    It may sound impossible to YOU to juggle 45lb poisonous knives while blindfolded, but I did it and now I am as rich as a sultan! Trust me, I really am! No doubt about it, I am a huge huge success.



    -VA

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  11. Here is 202 Birch St. 22305

    10/15/2003 Mc Conchie sells to Cassidy $475K

    11/14/2006 Cassidy sells to Hodge $620K

    8/17/2007 Hodge sells to Orenstein $760K

    Is that a 22% increase in less than a year?

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  12. Here is 3104 Holly St. 22305

    2/24/2000 Hunter buys for $392K

    5/29/2003 Hunter sells to Hauser $500K

    8/15/2007 Hauser sells to Thomas $880K

    Uh-oh, BH theory says that the price in 2005 must have been $1,100K but wait, only actual sales count.

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  13. Here is near by 11 W. Wyatt Ave 22305 Lance, VA check this one out. It's sorta like my place, which I think is worth about what this place just sold for.

    First the actual sales history.

    9/30/1988 sold to Pumpelly $141K

    6/20/1992 Pumpelly sells to Pearson $122K about when my place fell 5% in the assessment.

    5/10/2006 Pearson sells to Prestridge $485K

    5/31/2007 Prestridge sells to Tarrell $525K

    I guess the increase of 8% was part of the hidden crash.

    This place is like mine except it's on 2,500 sq ft and I have 5,000.

    This has no basement and I have one.

    No fireplace. I have one.

    No "parking", I have a garage.

    Sold for $525K? Uh-oh. No matter, BH's explained how there is no connection between actual prices and assessments. I don't have to worry about my place going up a hundred thousand and sticking me with a big tax bill.

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  14. KH,

    Are you trying to impress us with your ability to spot real estate fraud?

    Because... uh... it's working.

    You're too cool! I may have to change my shorts now.

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  15. Hey Lance, here's another good one, 18 W Caton Ave 22305 Close by.

    12/21/2001 sells for $369K

    12/18/2002 Peoples buys for $429K

    4/16/2004 Peoples sells to Lache $560K

    6/19/2007 Lache sells to Davis $662K

    That's only up 18% from 2004 to 2007. Yep that's a bubble busting fer sure.

    I was hoping the city would assess my small place for less than $500K.

    Same size lot. I have a little more living space. Both have basements. This one doesn't have a fireplace or garage.

    It sold for $662K. I might have a problem, Houston.

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  16. What on earth are you spamming us with this garbage for?

    If we wanted to flip through random tax records from Alexandria we could all do that.

    If you want to spend all day talking about your house's tax assessment... start a blog dedicated to the subject. Nobody gives a shit what your house assesses for.

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  17. Lance! You're right, they are afraid.

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  18. Yeah, "balked." As in "had no money."

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  19. jeezus, kh, just go be content with your 'burban home and stop embarrassing yourself.

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  20. "Lance! You're right, they are afraid."

    Afraid your assessment will rise?

    Afraid it won't rise?

    You can hardly imagine how little I care what your tax assessment does.

    Quit being such a baby.

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  21. KH, you're proving the "Greater Fool" theory. Unfortunately, the nation has almost run out of fools. Don't bray proudly about how foolish you are.

    See you at 7:30am when the sun rises . . . whether you think it's coming or not.

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  22. kh,

    What is your point? Housing prices don't collapse all at once. May I refer you to Calculated Risk's explanation?

    http://tinyurl.com/2q5nd4

    The pattern is (1) lower demand; (2) seller reluctance to lower prices; (3) lower sales as buyers refuse to pay asking prices; and then (4) lower prices. Demand is now diminishing, even in Alexandria City. The fact that some sellers have found an eager buyer does not change this; after all, any demand curve has a top and a bottom. Per MRIS, sales in Alexandria in September were 130, lowest since 1997, and far far lower than 2004's peak of 313 sales. If this is sustained, lower prices will surely follow. It just takes time.

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  23. "It just takes time." Actually, 8:05, as the Chambers Brothers sang, "Time Has Come Today". All you have to do is read the Bloomberg headline stories over the past two days; look for NAR report, Case-Shiller Index, Consumer Confidence Report headline keywords. Obviously tough to swallow for those living in their castles made of sand (just to stay with 60's song references).

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  24. All you have to do is read the Bloomberg headline stories over the past two days; look for NAR report, Case-Shiller Index, Consumer Confidence Report headline keywords. Obviously tough to swallow for those living in their castles made of sand (just to stay with 60's song references).

    Don't you love how anyone selling RE wants to ignore Case-Shiller? Consumer confidence will come and go. But credit is further tightening. Prices are now off nicely from the peak per Case-Shiller; and it doesn't yet reflect the weak market of September and October!

    Do read calculated risk. Nice charts. They show a clear trend.

    To think... we're not even seeing the data on the months of the 6% to 12% drop in six months.

    Associates who once spouted "buy now or be priced out forever" now spout "of course real estate prices will continue going down." In sales, perception is the reality.

    Got popcorn?
    Neil

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  25. You bubbleheads are just a bunch of losers. You should have bought in 2005, but no, now you are priced out forever!

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  26. 6:11 wrote: "If we wanted to flip through random tax records from Alexandria we could all do that."

    Supposedly this Blog is about Real Estate prices and the "theory" that prices are too high.

    Lance is right, it's not about that, it's about keeping the hope going that prices are:

    1) not rising to some abstract world unobtainable level.

    2) falling everywhere, not taking a 5 or 10% pullback as prices did in the 1980's and 1990's.

    3) doing something different, this time.

    4) not rising in premium areas, that is every place except overpriced condos (mass manufactured) and overpriced, far out tracts (mass manufactured).

    5) about to crash, so than anyone can buy a nice condo, TH, or SFH without driving 2 hours each way to work.

    I mention my place in Alexandria because it's what I am familiar with, and there are others like it near by.

    Seems that BH's have carefully avoided any real data on actuals. Perhaps reality conflicts with their religion.

    I discuss high world prices, to include London and Paris, BH's say "they" are world travelers and those cities outclass DC. (They don't address prices in Mumbai though.)

    I find, format, and publish assessments showing price rises, BH's deride that because they are not actuals.

    I find, format, and publish actuals showing price rises, BH's call it "spam".

    All along, BH's are spewing out curses and calling me names.

    God bless you BH's, each and every one, and Lance for his BH outreach program.

    Perhaps prices will crash. I don't think they will but I hope so.

    Here's what that future brings. Lance, VA, bill, and I will take our tax savings and toast the BH's for being right.

    We might then buy another place. (Househeads tend to have cash and investments beyond their house.)

    If prices run up too high, too fast, we all lose. BH's don't get this but home equity means nothing, if we don't sell.

    Guranteed, bill the landlord, although he can take equity to use to buy another place, has his own notion of how much risk and what his rate of return must be. Rapidly rising prices increases his risk and makes the calculations hard.

    BH's, good luck to you all! I wish you the best. Gotta run, I have kitchen duty here at the shelter this morning.

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  27. 8:05 wrote: "If this is sustained, lower prices will surely follow. It just takes time."

    Good points but the "If" is a big one.

    The Fed is concerned and is cranking up the money machine.

    Many, many, househeads are talking about buying rentals, or a place for their kids, or something for retirement.

    The population is increasing. Builders have gone (are going) bust.

    Not much close in farmland left to subdivide. Here and there, there certainly is some.

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  28. KH, you aren't fooling anyone.

    You have your own idiotic little pet agenda here that nobody else gives a shit about.

    Tax assessments are very nearly useless for tracking actual prices.

    Yet you persist in spamming thread after thread after thread with cherry picked tax assessment bullshit.

    Nobody cares what your tax assessment does. Nobody cares what taxes are like in Alexandria.

    If you are going to be a troll, don't expect people to welcome you with open arms.

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  29. kh said"The population is increasing"

    This is only true if you consider illegals. However, it doesn't change the fact that there are 18million vacant homes.

    I myself enjoy contrary views to my BH mindset. I want my mind to be changed. But the anons are right, cherry picking tax assessments is not really any proof of anything. Sales data is where its at. And overall sales data. The fact that one particular house goes up really doesnt tell us anything, does it? I would really like to see some factual counterpionts to things like the case shiller index, or dc median dropping.

    Bob

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  30. 4:09 wrote: "Tax assessments "

    Those are actuals above, not assessments.

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  31. Bob wrote: "cherry picking tax assessments"

    Those are actual sales above, not assessments. They weren't cherry picked, those are the recent sales in my area, according to the city.

    The 18 million illegals are an interesting point.

    I'm guessing some renters in Presidential Gardens are illegals. If they leave, do TH/SFH near by fall or rise in value?

    I sure don't know.

    A few hundred apartments go vacant but there will be new renters.

    I gotta run, they want me to clean up the shelter.

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  32. Lance wrote: "You bubbleheads are just a bunch of losers. You should have bought in 2005, but no, now you are priced out forever!"

    Lance, Lance, go easy on the BHs. We don't know that for a fact.

    My theory was that we'd see a 5-15% pull back, just as we saw in the early 1990's and about 1980.

    Even if a 15% pullback doesn't come to pass, a few years of flat prices might be enough, their income might rise.

    Some lawyer posted that he got a gigantic raise. I keep running into IT consultants who earn good money. Cisco Network Engineers, PERL programmers, Oracle DBAs, and similar, are doing very well.

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  33. "Those are actuals above, not assessments."

    Ok, so let me get this straight... you think by posting individual cherry picked sales you are doing some good?

    An individual home moving up or down doesn't say anything about the market as a whole.

    Sold March 2006 for 285k.
    Sold Sept 2007 for 227k.
    http://tinyurl.com/27kpqp

    Sold Nov 2006 395k.
    Sold Sept 2007 340k.
    http://tinyurl.com/2dyger

    Sold April 2005 for 425k.
    Sold Aug 2007 for 400k.
    http://tinyurl.com/2seczv

    Sold March 2004 505k.
    Sold Aug 2007 443k.
    http://tinyurl.com/3cbdld

    Look what I proved!!

    What did I prove?


    You are just wasting everyone's time, mostly yours.

    Everyone knows that you are completely untrustworthy, for your incompetence if nothing else.

    You are here to "defend" your very very "special" neighborhood which absolutely will not be affected at all by the bust because it is just so extra special nice and unique.

    We get it... you are a dumbass... there is no need to continue to hammer the point home.

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  34. for DC:

    total $ sold volume -37.00%
    avg. sold price -3.65%
    med. sold price -17.58%
    total units sold -34.61%
    avg. days on mkt*. 4.55%
    avg. list price for solds*-3.86%

    *n.b. data does not reflect adj. for relists or price drops.

    Source: MRIS

    DC population change 4/2000 to
    7/2006: +1.7%

    US population change for same period: +6.4%

    Source: U.S.Census Bureau quickfacts

    Oops, almost forgot. In keeping with my suggestion in the previous thread to post a helpful fact for Lance/KH to help him in his journey towards sentience:

    Although they look alike, a hyphen and a minus sign do not mean the same thing.

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  35. MRIS numbers reflect 2006 to 2007 changes.

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  36. Now that you know what the little dashes mean, how would you characturize those numbers lance?

    Units down 35%. Dollar volume down 37%... those are pretty big numbers don't you think?

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  37. I keep running into IT consultants who earn good money. Cisco Network Engineers, PERL programmers, Oracle DBAs, and similar, are doing very well.

    Exactly. See, in addition to all the lawyers earning 500k a year flooding the district, we also have a new rise in IT workers that are also earning huge six figure salaries. Have you seen Google stock lately? How about the recent surge in Microsoft or Apple? Folks, it's a new paradigm. Not only do we have lawyers, but now with the new rise in IT workers making boatloads of money, pretty soon all the bubbleheads who couldn't afford a home before this new IT boom will surely never be able to afford ever again. And we all know that all the newly affluent IT workers are going to want to live in the district, not VA or MD, because the district, especially the 1600 block of S st NW is the most desirable block in all the district. It's close to Dupont and Whole Foods as well as the best nightlife in the world that is Adams Morgan and U/14th St. Yes, we are in not only a new paradigm for IT but also for the district and 1600 block of S st NW.

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  38. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  39. David,

    Someone is posting pretending to be me. The name isn't highlighted in blue like a real name, however it could lead to confusion. Can you block them? It might even be the same person that we caught doing it last year ... I think his name was "Bill" ... the Bill with the failed blog. There's been an abnormal amount of illogical posts lately very reminiscent of his posts ... Va_Investor has also been impersonated of late. I'd bet that Bill is back ...

    Thanks

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  40. "There's been an abnormal amount of illogical posts lately"

    Pot. Kettle. Black.

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  41. kh said...
    “Lance! You're right, they are afraid.”

    Nice post kh. I noticed you didn’t post anything sold past August. Anything special happen around the August/September time frame?

    Also, it seems the properties you did post did little to change the decline, will the properties you no doubt will find sold after August negate the decline?

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  42. "Can you block them?" no. Unless I go to comment moderation

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  43. "It just takes practice and the right knowhow. Back in the 80s I was juggling knives twice as long with one arm! These knives weren't like today either. They were dipped in poison and weighed 45 lbs each.

    Everyone should run out and buy the longest knives they can find and them throw them into the air.

    High into the air!

    Higher than high! and then they should snatch them out of the air and repeat the process! They should do this blindfolded and without a moment's hesitation. Losers hesitate.

    Winners run out and catch knives!

    It may sound impossible to YOU to juggle 45lb poisonous knives while blindfolded, but I did it and now I am as rich as a sultan! Trust me, I really am! No doubt about it, I am a huge huge success.



    -VA"


    LMAO

    That was worth however long you spent on it.

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  44. Have you seen Google stock lately?
    Talk about another dot.com bubble. Higher stock capitalization than WalMart with a fraction of the sales and profit.

    As to cherry picking properties, I can find quite a few listings, for sale but not selling, below their last sales price. Hence why we used broader indicators.

    Hey, anyone else notice that Washington DC price drops on Case-Shiller are about twice the national price drops? If you haven't downloaded the latest spreadsheet and created your own graphs, you should.

    DC is now down 8.4% from the peak.

    But that will just elicit some comment on how someone who bought at 1/4 of today's prices can rent at a profit. Great for them. Now let's compare the business case of buying in today's market.

    And credit keeps tightening. Maybe my business will be priced out of DC as we were from Long Island. Cest la vie. The reality is that for every person at twice my income, there are six of me. For everyone at my income, there are six direct reports to my level. For every one of those, there are four people earning a third or less of my income.

    Or will prices go up forever with no waitresses, clerks, mechanics, etc?

    Or is it my imagination that the military is moving offices out of the region? (e.g., MDA)? I know Captains working at the Pentagon... it won't run unless they and their families can be housed.

    If DC goes back to historical afford ability levels (which I doubt it will), we'll lose another 60%.

    But hey, we're just barely into the time of year where prices historically relax. But wait, they've been dropping during months prices should appreciate... The 6% to 12% price drop is a shoe in. The risk is to a greater price drop.

    Got popcorn?
    Neil

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  45. The thing about the Case Shiller data that surprised me most was that they peak was May 2006. I would have guessed it would have been earlier than that.

    The drop would have been bigger than 8.4% if it wasn't for the homes owned by Lance, kh and VA_Investor buoying the market.

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  46. Neil,

    Why do you believe that prices must drop for homes to be affordable for waitresses, clerks, mechanics, etc. Why don't you see raises in the works instead for these folks?

    I mean, do you really think this area would run without these folks? Doesn't the free market adjust for these insistances ... in this case causing employers to "share the wealth" via paying what they need to pay to get in the waitresses, mechanics, clerks, etc.

    I mean, that's how affordability has always returned in the past. Why should this time be different?

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  47. "I mean, that's how affordability has always returned in the past. Why should this time be different?"

    Because the side of the equation that is out of whack and needs correction is not wages, it is housing prices. That is why, housing prices are, in fact, now falling in DC/Metro.

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  48. And Neil ... You mentioned your firm having to leave Long Island because it had become unaffordable. I haven't heard of any mass exodus from Long Island of all their clerks, mechanics, and waitresses. Why is it that they were able to stay ... but your firm wasn't? Could it be that "sharing the wealth" wasn't an option from your firm? I mean, maybe they need to operate from places where labor is relatively cheaper ... That's not a bad thing, but it doesn't mean that the whole of the Washington area has to adjust to your firm's needs. It just means it's not a good fit anymore. I'm sure there are plenty of cities out there who would welcome your group ... and they probably have more affordable housing. So why go around wishing our housing market would collapse when you could have what you want elsewhere? Is it maybe that you know deep down that you prefer it here ... because you couldn't get everything you wanted elsewhere ... just the bigger house and yard ... ? Maybe watching the grass grow and the cows moo just isn't your style?

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  49. "I mean, that's how affordability has always returned in the past. Why should this time be different?"

    Your ignorance is simply breathtaking lance.

    There is no shortage of examples of previous housing booms and busts.

    How on earth is someone who spends as much time as you do bickering about housing some completely and hopelessly clueless?

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  50. "So why go around wishing our housing market would collapse..."


    How many times, lance? A correction of a financial bubble is not a collapse.

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  51. anon said:
    "How many times, lance? A correction of a financial bubble is not a collapse."

    Good ... we are finally on the same page! There will be no collapse ... no 50% of current valuation, no "blood in the streets", nothing that characterizes a bursting bubble ... there will just be the correction as we are already experiencing it. As Va and I have predicted, some "edge" places such as the outer exhurbs and tranisitional areas will experience large declines of 15%-20% as has occured, and even some regular non-edge places will remain stagnant. Condos will drop by more ... maybe 20% ... But overall there will be no bursting bubble ... just the same old corrections we have seen in past cycles. So what makes you a BH if you believe this? BHs believe in a collapse of prices so that everything is affordable to anyone who has a 20% downpayment to put down.

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  52. "no 50% of current valuation, no "blood in the streets", nothing that characterizes a bursting bubble ..."


    Wrong again, all that characterizes a "correction" if the bubble is big enough, and this one is...you were incorrectly using the word "collapse" to describe a properly operating market to disintegrate with no reason. The market in question is not operating properly and the correction that is in progress will bring large declines. If you have stupidly put a lot of skin in this game, yes, your financial blood will be "in the streets" one way or another.

    Obtuse is the correct term for you.

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  53. Anon said:
    "The market in question is not operating properly and the correction that is in progress will bring large declines."

    Again, I must agree with you. The large declines of 8% overall have occured! (See link from imposter at 11:04). But again, it is fully in line with what all normal sane people have been predicting ... and not in the least in line with what the BHs have wished for. But if that's what you were hoping for, good for you. Now why aren't you out there buying?

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  54. "Now why aren't you out there buying?" Because housing is overpriced. There will be more.

    Congratulations on your mention, David, and it's great to see that what we've all been saying for the past two or three years is finally starting to be heard. Too bad it didn't happen earlier to prevent some of the mess.

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  55. "Again, I must agree with you. The large declines of 8% overall have occured! "


    Clearly the declines are through. Starting with next month's data we are going to see the rebound right lance?

    Meanwhile, in the real world....

    This is going to be one bad bust and there is a 0% chance it is done at this early stage.

    If you really want to shake your tiny fist and insist that there wasn't a bubble and therefor there can't be a bust... go ahead. At the end of the day the bust/burst will be just as bad no matter what you call it. A rose by any other name... etc.

    DC is looking at 20%+ declines before this is over with a very real possibility of declines approaching 33% from peak prices.

    You may not feel that warrants calling it a bursting bubble... but the rest of the world has already come to the opposite conclusion.

    BTW, I haven't seen you apologize for your error on Greenspan's views. Could you please direct me to the post where you aknowledged that error?

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  56. "Mr Greenspan said he would expect “as a minimum, large single-digit” percentage declines in US house prices from peak to trough and added that he would not be surprised if the fall was “in double digits”."

    7% 8% 9% at a minimum

    and

    10% 15% 20% at a maximum

    This isn't the bubble bursting that BHs have been hoping for.

    This a correction and it will continue correcting for the remaining 6 - 12 months of the 12 - 18 months that I originally predicted. (6 months already having passed.)

    Note that we have high single digit declines occuring in some isolated areas for single family homes and we have the 15% or 20% discounts happening for condos and perhaps also for a few exhurb single family homes. This was never in question. This what a correction is all about. The new/questionable housing stock gets discounted at the get go.

    What we don't have is the wholesale price declines that most (but certainly not all) BHs have been predicting. There is no "blood in the streets" and the vast majority of buyers over the last several years ... who, btw, happened to have been qualified buyers ... are snug in their homes and not phased in the least. It's not like real homebuyers bought to resell a couple years later ... Those were flippers ... daytraders in real estate.

    And the vast majority of bubbleheads who could similarly have been snug in their homes are still waiting for that big, big drop to occur on the properties they want and not on the ones that are actually out there dropping.

    Now, you tell me, has the bubblehead theory delivered? What will change to make it deliver on its promises?

    Will the BHs try to expand on the percentages predicted by Greenspan to make them fit their belief system? Will his range span from "low single digits" to HIGH double digits ... just to make "it" (the BH theory) true?

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  57. Anybody who does decide to buy now, bubblehead or otherwise, will get a better deal than you did, lance. But prices will continue to drop. The only authority you have to pontificate about is on making really bad and expensive financial decisions.

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  58. Lord Lance says buy. Buy now you insolent bastards. Hear the word, Lord Lance needs buyers. Buy now so that prices stableize. Lord Lance is tired of eating ramen noodles and needs to go out and eat at his most favorite restraunt. Buy you fools before Va buys it all! Buy before another BH buys before you! Buy before the government buys out all the mortgages. Buy before you want to. Buy now because someone else told you to buy now. Buy because you will never be happy. Buy to get into the game.

    By the by, if you buy you money will go bye bye.

    ReplyDelete
  59. Lord Lances land has lost no liquidity. Lame lies of losses are lamentable but his locality lacks the likes.

    ReplyDelete
  60. Anon said:
    "Anybody who does decide to buy now, bubblehead or otherwise, will get a better deal than you did, lance."

    First, thanks for recognizing that I got a great deal buying when I did and not waiting as the BH philosophy demands ... since prices in my neighborhood have continued to rise and rise since I bought what seems like ages ago now.

    Secondly, anyone buying now might get a better deal than I if they do it the old fashioned way ... the way I did it i.e., do their homework and hit the pavement looking. Hoping for a bursting bubble to shower them with that "good deal" is wishful thinking. But I understand how it's far easier to sit back and hope it all just comes to you than to go out and work to make it happen. You know, if it sounds to good to be true ... it probably is.

    ReplyDelete
  61. lance lance lance...

    You never tire of embarassing yourself do you?

    It is interesting how you more than any "bubblehead" make a point of stating the "bubblehead philosphy."

    Strange don't you think?

    You aren't fooling anyone you know. It isn't as if someone is going to read the BS you type and think "hey, didn't know that was the official bubblehead philosophy, but since lance said it was it must be true!"

    ReplyDelete
  62. An 80/20 IO sounds too good to be true.

    ReplyDelete
  63. Robert: "I noticed you didn’t post anything sold past August. Anything special happen around the August/September time frame?"

    The next house in the Study Group 1006 series is a mystery. 2819 Russell Rd

    9/12/2001 Sold to Quincy $640K

    4/14/2005 Quincy to Lohfeld $1,003K

    6/9/2006 Lohfeld marries (?) Secrist $0K

    10/2/2007 Lohfeld-Secrist to Hughes $1,393K

    I'm hoping that this is an outlier.

    There's not much for sale in this area. MLS shows 70 places which is low.

    The places are priced up there, $800K for a nice-ish house or the affordable places ($250K-$400K) are small and in bad neighborhoods.

    Of course, affordable is in the wallet of the beholder. I don't think a half mill is affordable.

    ReplyDelete
  64. KH, do you think that the more-than-double price increase in five years is at all rational? What do you think happened that made that house worth more than twice as much when average salaries didn't increase more than a fraction, and when population didn't increase more than a fraction?

    If you look at the market response to the bubbles in the 70s and the 80s, it's always come back down steeply after the hump, and then prices have stagnated and declined over the course of the following ten years.

    As this recent bubble has shown price increases which were inordinately disproportionate to any other market factor which would indicate a change in value, do you not expect that history will repeat itself a third time, in equitable magnitude?

    ReplyDelete
  65. Wow KH, you found a house that went up!

    Clearly this means that your neighborhood is shooting straight to the moon!

    You are bound for riches!

    ReplyDelete
  66. Lance's quote:
    This a correction and it will continue correcting for the remaining 6 - 12 months of the 12 - 18 months that I originally predicted. (6 months already having passed.)

    October 31, 2007 12:52 PM

    Have a bit of trouble with your addition, Lance?

    Previous Quotes of Lance, note the dates...
    All those except those either unable to buy because of financial or emotional reasons will indeed start hopping in ..
    Which is what will ensure that prices don't drop much further and that prices return to where they were within a 12 to 18 month period.
    September 02, 2006 9:03 AM

    Why do you think the upward trend in prices stopped far quicker than we'd ever seen in the past? ... simple answer: instant and plentiful communications and information such as this very blog. This same fast flowing information will also quicken the recovery part of the cycle. Mark my words, 12 to 18 months max ...

    September 02, 2006 10:09 AM

    September 2006 to October 2007 is 13 months, not 6.

    September 2, 2006
    to October 31,2007
    425 days (including the day Sept. 2 and Oct. 31)
    One day shy of 14 months.
    That leaves 4 months for the turnaround, or February 2008.
    Plenty of houses sell in February, don't they?
    How about March 2008?
    That is the month another wave of Alt A and sub-prime loans reset.
    The rebound in housing doesn't look too good right about now or in the future.

    ReplyDelete
  67. 3:50 said: "do you think that the more-than-double price increase in five years is at all rational? What do you think happened that made that house worth more than twice as much when average salaries didn't increase more than a fraction, and when population didn't increase more than a fraction?"

    That house is not normal. For one thing, when it was built, it was priced 2 or 3 times more than the average for the neighborhood.

    I got into an discussion with a neighbor (more like a friendly argument) when the house was being built,

    "It's an apartment building"

    "No. I'm pretty sure it's a house."

    "but it's so big. THAT is not a house."

    Most folk around here could not afford it. This is a middle class neighborhood with mid-career types.

    No one sells around here. Several neighbors have said, "Where would I go?"

    If their house is too small, they live with it until their kids move away.

    Two neighbors have paid their places off. One is retired.

    Cost, value, or the bubble doesn't matter to most of my neighbors.

    We do fear the annual tax assessment. A retired neighbor pays more in tax than the original mortgage. They're on a fixed income so each increase is a problem.

    I don't think the "what can average people afford" argument is a issue.

    If you or I can't afford the place, someone else can.

    These are not McMansions or classy show off places. 10 years ago, these were OK to good, strudy, small houses. That's what they still are.

    It's just that this neighborhood is close in, 2 miles to the Pentagon.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Anon said:
    "You aren't fooling anyone you know."

    I'm not trying to fool anyone. I'm trying to prevent you doomsayers from sinking the U.S. economy.

    ReplyDelete
  69. "I'm not trying to fool anyone. I'm trying to prevent you doomsayers from sinking the U.S. economy."

    Don't worry lance, the economy is always strong in DC.

    Lawyers right?

    ReplyDelete
  70. 3:50,

    I bought this place just before the last peak. According the records, it had just about doubled when I came along.

    After I bought, it went up about 10%, then fell 5% in 1992 and stayed down until 1999. That's going by the assessments which some here say is a farked way to look at it.

    My place jumped again starting about 6 years ago.

    Maybe, who cares.

    I expect it to pull back, 5, 10%, maybe 15%.

    I doubt very much it will fall more than 10% but who knows.

    If real estate around here falls 30%, it would be very tempting to buy another house as a rental.

    ReplyDelete
  71. (same anonymous that asked the original questions)

    It may have cost 2 to 3 times as much as the other places in the 'hood, but for an asset to appreciate by over double its value, there must be some market change. If the only change was that no-doc mortgages became more widely and easily attainable, then it stands to reason that now that they are gone, it will return to it's original value, adjusted for inflation.

    ReplyDelete
  72. David,

    Now the imposter(Bill?) has registered under my name ... making it look like me ... Like the time you had someone register under "David" pretending to be you.

    Your blog becomes valueless when you have people in here for no reason other than to cause mayhem. It's unfortunately probably time for comment moderation again.

    ReplyDelete
  73. "All those except those either unable to buy because of financial or emotional reasons will indeed start hopping in ..
    Which is what will ensure that prices don't drop much further and that prices return to where they were within a 12 to 18 month period.
    September 02, 2006 9:03 AM"

    Wow, lance got pwned... HARD.


    Just like he likes it... or at least that is the impression he gives by saying the stupid shit he does.

    ReplyDelete
  74. "Your blog becomes valueless when you have people in here for no reason other than to cause mayhem."

    LOL... the troll is complaining about people here that are trying to disrupt things?

    Hey troll, how about you own up to being completely wrong about greenspan. While you are at it you can own up to your earlier quotes that show off what a dumbass you are.

    ReplyDelete
  75. I am the one that keeps doing the "Lord Lance". I will try to mock him with my screen name so that I can take the credit. I am also the one who showed that Lance could not do simple math. He would not recant that he could not do division. He also called me "evil", which was not nice of him. But most of my comments in the past were edited out by David. I was just enjoying the truley open forum.

    ReplyDelete
  76. David,

    Your blog has been taken over by the desperate and the anxious. It's no longer a blog were reasonable discussions can be had. You may not have created these monsters, but you fed them the false hope that keeps their illusions alive. What will happen when they realize you were so very wrong?

    ReplyDelete
  77. "You may not have created these monsters, but you fed them the false hope that keeps their illusions alive. What will happen when they realize you were so very wrong?"

    Lance, have you ever seen The Housing Bubble Blog? Twenty plus news stories a day from around the country, and hundreds upon hundreds of comments from people who see the same phenomena.

    Every person here whom you would label a "bubblehead" has reached their conclusions based on empirical data, not because of anything in particular David has ever said.

    You think that David created discontent with grossly overpriced housing, shill realtors, and fraudulent appraisals, borrowing, and mortgage lending?

    You're insane. That's not a pejorative or an invitation for refutation from you - - it's my conclusion. It's the only explanation for your behavior.

    As far as your ideas on how to run a blog, I think you should keep them to yourself.

    ReplyDelete
  78. "there must be some market change."

    For 2819 Russell Road? I'm guessing not. There are limited choices for large "executive-style" homes.

    Big houses are common out there but there aren't that many around here.

    2819 Russell Road competes with high end condo apartments and a few older places on some acreage.

    "Better than" will run 2 or 3 million.

    I don't think people buying the $1+M places are doing No-docs. That's a game for the $200K-$400K crowd.

    ReplyDelete
  79. Us bubbleheads are winning! yippee! hoorah! hoorah! It's a great depression coming ... hoorah! hoorah! I can't wait to see all the houses go on sail for 50% off! Thank you David! Where do we go to get that 50% off?

    ReplyDelete
  80. "them the false hope that keeps their illusions alive."

    Donno Lance. Someone told me that there are thousands of places for sale in Manassas and prices are off 30%.

    Contrast that with 70 places for sale in my zip code and prices are rising.

    Just because, in a tiny part of the Metro area, prices are not falling, that doesn't disprove their hypothesis.

    The 10x10 mile square of the original DC, when you subtract the roads, the parks, the federal compounds, the commercial space, leaves what?

    Not very much.

    10x10 = 100 square miles, say, of that, maybe 20 square miles might be residential land.

    If prices are holding or rising in 22305 (the closest Alexandria Zip to DC) and in the District proper, but drops 30% (who knows) in the other parts of the metro area, how do you interpret that?

    I know people who commute inward 60 and 75 miles. That puts that DC metro area at 100-150 miles across.

    PiRSquared. Call it 22,000 square miles. Subtract the roads and few federal and commercial buildings, maybe 10,000 square miles available for residential use.

    Whatever happens "out there" overweighs our tiny part of the region.

    10,000 counts for a lot more than 20. That's .2%

    We don't make the news because our sales and our issues are literally down in the noise.

    Of course, that's also what drives the price up for us.

    ReplyDelete
  81. blackbeard asked:
    "You think that David created discontent with grossly overpriced housing, shill realtors, and fraudulent appraisals, borrowing, and mortgage lending?"

    (1) I specifically said that David did NOT create ...
    (2) The fact that you use the term "overpriced housing" gives your hand away. In a free market such as ours, there can never be "overpriced" housing. It's not like there is some central command setting the price. Price gets set by buyers and sellers coming to a mutually transaction price. If you can't understand that, then how can I give any credibility to anything you have to say? BUT, I did give you the benefit of the doubt and read your first post in the link you gave us. And sure enough, it is about a less-than-intelligent person who couldn't understand why they'd have a hard time refinancing a house they decided they didn't want to move into AFTER they also decided not to move out of the house they knew they had to sell when they agreed to buy said "not-moved-into" house. The same "phenonmenon" you are displaying is called "poor judgement" ... it has nothing to do with the state of the market. This isn't a nanny state where people need to be protected from their own bad judgement.

    ReplyDelete
  82. You know, lance, kh, va, et. al are finally retreating to their final refuge: "We Were right! We thought there was going to be a bubble burst all along! Just not as large as you guys thought!"

    Look, if we had said a year ago that housing prices were due for a fall of about 20%, you'd have claimed we were all crazy. Now you accept it as well within reasonable predictions.

    ReplyDelete
  83. KH, the question was:

    “Also, it seems the properties you did post did little to change the decline, will the properties you no doubt will find sold after August negate the decline?”

    So I take it you feel the one home you most recently posted make the decline negate and we should see an increase to positive levels in sales/volume?

    ReplyDelete
  84. David,

    Please do something about these imposters. There is only one Lance, and that is me. I know all you bubbleheads want to own your own home but you can't. You missed your opportunity.

    Meanwhile, I just ran into another lawyer the other day. You see, I was walking down K st and a guy at the farragut north metro was playing this music on an accordian. I just had to speak to him because I was certain he looked like a bubblehead! Well, let me tell you that I was sure surprised when he pulled out a business card and I saw that he was a lawyer. I asked him what he earned and he said he was making $300K/year. So I asked him where he lived, he said he lived in Ivy City. So I said, why would a lawyer like you live in Ivy City? So he gave me this big long story about how he came to DC three years ago, and was unable to afford a home in Dupont, where all the rich and famous live. Upon searching with his real estate agent, he stumbled upon a fixer-upper in an up and coming neighborhood. So he looked at it with his realtor and simply fell in love with the home and the neighborhood. Sure, the home needed a roof, plumbing, and other minor repairs, and it was next to a strip club, but he was willing to take the risk. After all, you have to take risks if you ever want to get rich in residential real estate. Plus with prices going up, he didn't want to get priced out forever. Upon consulting with his best friend, a mortgage broker, he knew it was a sound investment. His friend hooked him up with an 80/20 IO ARM, plus a line of equity to fix the house up (his mortgage broker friend had an appraiser friend that somehow found that the house was really worth $225k more than what it was being offered for- stupid loser sellers!). So the deal was made. I know this is a long story, but I have told this for a reason. If lawyers are buying in Ivy City, there is truly nothing left for bubbleheads. You missed your opportunity to buy because they're not making any more land in the District.

    ReplyDelete
  85. Lance said:
    "David,

    Please do something about these imposters. There is only one Lance, and that is me."

    Sorry Lance, I can't do anything about them so I won't do anything about them. But why are you asking me anyway? Why don't you ask David Jackson, the owner of this blog?

    I'm glad to know there's only one Lance. By the way, are you and the other members of 'N Sync ever planning to get back together?

    Much love,
    David

    ReplyDelete
  86. "There is only one Lance, and that is me. I know all you bubbleheads want to own your own home but you can't. You missed your opportunity."

    Priced out forever huh?

    lol

    poor lance.... the longer you have been here the more pathetic you have become.

    Of course you will never admit you were wrong about any of this. That would lead to you spontaneously combusting.

    ReplyDelete
  87. In a free market such as ours, there can never be "overpriced" housing.

    That is the most unbelievably stupid statement I've read from you yet, Lance, you worthless troll.

    ReplyDelete
  88. "In a free market such as ours, there can never be "overpriced" housing."

    Good news for internet investors, beanie baby collectors, and tulip fanatics!

    The free market has insured that none of those were overpriced!

    The good times are here to stay!

    ReplyDelete
  89. "Look, if we had said a year ago that housing prices were due for a fall of about 20%, you'd have claimed we were all crazy. Now you accept it as well within reasonable predictions."

    I would not say you were crazy nor do I think that minus 20% is within reason for my zip code.

    I've been consistent on, "it looks like it might be, could be, sorta, like a rerun of the 1990's, maybe."

    I bought my place just before the last peak, which seemed to be about 1990, 1991 but how could you tell.

    By 1992 or 1993, the S&L crisis was raging. I even attended an RTC (Resolution Trust Corp) liquidation auction.

    I didn't see any bargains then. Places went for close to assessment in spirited bidding.

    At the risk of an anon-BH giving me shiat; around here, now, prices are flat to climbing.

    I was prepared for a 5% to maybe 15% pullback on actuals. The city's study groups for my area are reporting increases in actuals.

    The too-cute mantra, "not in my area, not in my zip, not on my street." That's proven to be bullshiat.

    Of course, that doesn't save the farked househead out in Manassas who has to sell or who uses their house as an ATM. The BH theory applies there, it's just not a 50% fall or blood in the streets.

    I've always wondered what the far out househeads were thinking. Their mantra was, "I can buy more house out here."

    To which my response was always, "Why would I want more house?" I can barely manage to mow my small lawn now.

    and...

    "In a recession, close in places hold their value better. In a boom, close in places go up more."

    Not that I'm doing anything with my equity.

    I'm not telling anyone what to do but if I were a renter, I'd be low-balling a place every week.

    That's not going ridiculous either, maybe 15% off their asking and being willing to settle for 10% off if they contribute a little towards closing.

    ReplyDelete
  90. "So I take it you feel the one home you most recently posted make the decline negate and we should see an increase to positive levels in sales/volume?"

    I posted several places, not one. These are from Study Group 1006.

    As for sales volume, donno. There are so few places for sale around here.

    I know someone who is doing some up grades on their place. People are knocking on their door, "You're not thinking of selling, are you? If so, let me know, I want to buy your place."

    I went out to Vienna last week. My God, the drive inbound on I66 at 7:00 PM was horrible. Of course it was just as bad outbound.

    ReplyDelete
  91. Anyone know what happened at the Parkside auction?

    "On Oct. 28, Parkside Alexandria, in partnership with Accelerated Marketing Partners of Boston, will offer 30 condominium units at Parkside at Alexandria during a live auction. Most of the other 348 units were sold the traditional way. "Basically, conventional strategies aren't working," said Jon Gollinger, chief executive of Accelerated Marketing Partners, a real estate marketing firm.

    Two-bedroom condos that recently sold for $340,000 will go for a minimum of $225,000. Asked how those people who paid market price for their units would feel about the auction, Gollinger said they're better off having a sold-out building."


    Anyone get a $225K condo?

    Anyone attend the live auction?

    I forgot about it.

    ReplyDelete
  92. "I would not say you were crazy nor do I think that minus 20% is within reason for my zip code."

    Special Special Special... oh so special.

    What makes your particular cluster of quaint suburban homes so magical? Could it be that you are just deciding to believe what you want to believe?

    Afterall... when prices went up that was perfectly logical wasn't it? Just because they are ordinary little houses in the suburbs doesn't mean they didn't DESERVE to double in price.

    Now they will simply return to their "normal" rate of appreciation... 7% per year... lol

    ReplyDelete
  93. "I know someone who is doing some up grades on their place. People are knocking on their door, "You're not thinking of selling, are you? If so, let me know, I want to buy your place." "

    So that's what happened to all the buyers! They all are trying to buy the house of kh's friend!

    ReplyDelete
  94. I'm the anon from 10/31 at 3:50 PM. I appreciate your straightforward, fact-based, and logical reply, KH.

    If prices do fall 30% and you can afford it, it would be worth considering purchasing property to rent out.

    As we've seen in the past, the industry will likely stagnate for an extended period of time even after the greatest declines immediately following the bubble. 30% is not an unreasonable expectation for the bottom, in real-dollar terms.

    As Lance has cited before, though, there are groups who are now buying investment properties in this area for 50% of "FMV".

    If you can afford the place after a 30% drop and don't expect to flip it in the next say 10 years following, it would probably be a good idea.

    As for your neighborhood being different, in deference to HHs and BHs alike, it is easily possible that your neighborhood could suffer less of the impact of the "correction" than other areas.

    The problem arises when comparable units in other communities have had their prices driven down by the falling prices of units in surrounding communities . . . like a less dramatic version of dominoes:

    "I could buy this here for X but in a comparable community I could buy the same thing for (.9*X) or ten percent less, for essentially the same house and neighborhood."

    People would likely move into the comparable community and that would exert downward pressure on the prices of X.

    Who knows how it'll all end - - certainly no one here :-)

    ReplyDelete
  95. KH - I was curious to hear about the results, particularly because the "starting" price for those auctions still sounded well too high for the properties. Here's one that I intend to keep an eye on:

    http://tinyurl.com/2gyxbb

    ReplyDelete
  96. 5:25 linked to: "TO BE AUCTIONED ABSOLUTE TO THE HIGHEST BIDDER on 11/29/07 at 11 AM!"

    Great find!!!

    There's someone gutsy out there.

    ReplyDelete
  97. 3:50: "If prices do fall 30% and you can afford it, it would be worth considering purchasing property to rent out."

    Yeah. Depends on the individual's tolerance for risk, job prospects, cash on hand, etc.

    I did look a place last week, reduced $60K but on a major road. They're asking over 2X the price in 2001.

    I don't see any screaming bargains.

    ReplyDelete
  98. There aren't too many yet. I've been surprised at how excruciatingly slow this is happening. Denial must be a powerful force indeed.

    Since it sounds like you've got a place to live in which you are comfortable, then you don't have to do anything but sit and watch. If nothing else, the prospect of a down payment will give you a savings goal in the interim.

    If everyone here, and elsewhere, is wrong, then you come out with a nice chunk for retirement, and if they're right, then you can use the chunk to make your carrying costs low enough to turn a monthly profit from the gate.

    ReplyDelete
  99. Finish the $20k in brickwork yet, kh?

    ReplyDelete
  100. Comment moderation is needed here. Kids with nothing better to do have taken over the blog.

    ReplyDelete
  101. comment moderation is not needed and will once again ruin the blog.

    Housing heads are screaming for moderation because they dont want the facts to get out there. See the news today? Not good for the HH's.
    Bob

    ReplyDelete
  102. kh said...
    “posted several places, not one. These are from Study Group 1006.”

    And that's why I posed the question:

    “Also, it seems the properties you did post did little to change the decline, will the properties you no doubt will find sold after August negate the decline?”

    ReplyDelete
  103. LOL! The Real Estate Agent on my website trashes him too.

    Check out what he has to say:

    www.AnonRecordings.com

    ReplyDelete
  104. "Finish the $20k in brickwork yet,"

    Thank you for asking.

    Finished 2 weeks ago. It was a "job", no question about it. I ended up using concrete pavers and not bricks. Carried about 2,000 pounds of material up the hill.

    It looks quite nice and I'll be working on another project shortly.

    There was a cost overrun but not too bad. I bought some tools and had material left over.

    I'm pleased as punch with the way the job turned out.

    ReplyDelete
  105. Also, it seems the properties you did post did little to change the decline, will the properties you no doubt will find sold after August negate the decline?”

    I have not found the decline yet. 2819 sold after August.


    10/2/2007 Lohfeld-Secrist to Hughes $1,393K


    I should clarify that. I am looking "out there" for a possible rental. Although prices are lower than a year ago, they are not giving those places away.

    If prices crater out, down 50%, I'll buy a rental.

    No way I can do that around here, at least not by my guess.

    ReplyDelete
  106. "See the news today?"

    What news was that? The Dow fell 362 and oil went up.

    Seems that would be good for HH and bad for BH.

    ReplyDelete
  107. Lance's latest quote:

    "I'm not trying to fool anyone. I'm trying to prevent you doomsayers from sinking the U.S. economy."

    October 31, 2007 5:11 PM

    How in blue blazes can a handful of bubble heads wreck the multi-Trillion dollar economy that is the US economy?

    How in the world can bubble heads cause the entire US economy to implode?

    Perhaps by the same way the bubbleheads wrecked the housing market. Oh wait, Lance said bubbleheads didn't ruin the housing market, it is just going through a correction, but per Lance, bubbleheads have the power to sink the US Economy.

    Do bubble heads have some mojo voo-doo hoo-doo power to unleash the forces of destruction upon the earth, powers so destructive that it causes Lance to hide under the bed at night?

    Not only are you a bottomless pit of arrogance Lance, you are also a bottomless pit of ridiculous ideas.

    ReplyDelete
  108. Anon 4:37,

    If you think I posted that, then you are more easily fooled than most. Can't you tell when a BH is posting as me or KH or Va? And when BHs have to resort to such tactics, doesn't that tell you a little something about them?

    ReplyDelete
  109. If you care to go up to read the quote for yourself

    October 31, 2007 5:11 PM

    You will see the name 'lance' is in blue, as in posted by the blogger lance, not in black as in a copycat lance.

    I repeat, the lance quote is in blue.
    Blue
    B-L-U-E

    Are you claiming that someone has hijacked your blog access and is now posting as you lance?

    ReplyDelete
  110. anti lance, you know that ANYONE can lay claim to any name ... just like the time David was claimed by someone else. You've just given yourself away as the fool who's been hijacking identities. Though, anti-lance isn't in blue ... so we don't even know who you are. But we do know that if David doesn't do something about this soon, his blog will be valueless since know will know who posted what.

    ReplyDelete
  111. Gaawd, I love the fact that Lance dominates everything even if s/he isn't even posting. And I love popcorn. Popcorn! Popcorn!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  112. Lance, how are those Arnold & Porter associates "snapping up" all those new condos?

    I didn't think so. Look on craigslist.

    Jerkstore

    ReplyDelete
  113. 6:10 said, "If everyone here, and elsewhere, is wrong, "

    I have a different position. While I "think" we'll see something like the aftermath of the 1990's S&L collapse, that is, maybe a 5, 10, 15% price pull back and a flat period for several years, I'm not betting on "being right".

    Every day, I look for signs of a price collapse. It has NOT happened. As of this moment, prices in Alexandria are still up there.

    If I see a 1/1 condo, such as currently advertised in Auburn Village for $214K, listed for under $100K (still seems pricey), I will be there with my checkbook. I'd probably be trampled by bill-the-landlord from Greater NOVA Bubble.

    If I see a place like mine listed for 40% off, same deal, I'll take all my savings, buy it, and rent it for whatever I can get.

    I'm a house "bull", no question, but I'm not saying buy just anything. The deal has to be affordable and there is risk.

    There is also a "risk" that prices will be much higher in the near future.

    ReplyDelete
  114. Lance, you are really starting to make a fool of yourself.

    First off, I am not very internet or computer savvy to tell the truth, so as to the accusation I stole your or any one else's blog identity is rediculous.

    I have no idea as to how to steal anyone's identity online, I simply am not that smart.
    If someone has stolen your identity I suggest you contact whoever is in charge of blogs and report the theft or hijacking of your account.

    Second, the post as to which lance was blue or not was something any one reading this blog could see for themselves by scrolling up and seeing it with their own eyes.

    Honestly lance, has this blog gotten under your skin, have the bubbleheads caused you to go off the deep end?

    ReplyDelete
  115. Another detail to prove my innocence...

    the name Lance in black
    posts
    October 30, 2007 1:46 PM

    October 31, 2007 7:01 AM

    October 31, 2007 11:04 AM

    the name in black David
    post
    November 01, 2007 12:46 AM

    During the time of their posts, I did not post since I was at work and I do not have internet access in my place of work. It is forbidden for productivity reasons.

    Also, if you choose to dig up old posts of anti lance, you will see, that except for holiday's and weekends, anti lance does not post before 4 PM

    I don't get onto the internet until after 4.

    Another detail for the posters to chew on...

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