Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Home prices still plunging

The downward decline in the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index is accellerating:
The S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index reported that prices sank a record 18.2% during the last three months of 2008, compared with the same period in 2007. ...

"The broad downturn in the residential real estate market continues," said David Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's, in a statement. "There are very few, if any, pockets of turnaround that one can see in the data."

All 20 metro areas in the 20-city index recorded declines, with home prices falling more than 20% in eight of those cities. National home prices have dropped 26.7% since they peaked during the second quarter of 2006. ...

The decline does not seem to be slowing — just the opposite. The average home price dropped 2.5% between November and December in the 20 top metro areas. That was a larger increase than the 2.3% drop a month earlier.

"The deterioration in U.S. home prices continues apace, with the rate of decline picking up steam late last year," said Mike Larson, an analyst with Weiss Research. "Rising foreclosure activity is putting pressure on prices, as lenders are increasingly pursuing a 'take what we can get' selling strategy."

Karl Case, the Wellesley economist who, with Yale economist Robert Shiller, co-developed the index, pointed out during a news conference following the index's release that the markets experiencing the steepest falls also enjoyed the biggest run-ups during the boom. ...

The index statistics do not contain a lot of good news for the future, according to Case.
Don't worry. The housing bottom is right around the corner, just as it has been for the past three years.

30 comments:

  1. Whoo-Hooo!!!

    how low can ya go, how low can ya go, how low can ya go!!

    1993 prices are what is right around the corner

    so long, suckers!

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  2. Don't worry, rational people substitute ranch homes in West Virginia for Craftsman bungalows in Del Ray each and every day.

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  3. "1993 prices are what is right around the corner"

    As much as I want prices to be affordable, so that I can purchase....it took 2 years into this bubble for things to drop $50K in MD. We are now at 2005 prices...I dont think it will go back to 1993 prices, or if it does its going to take 35 years to do it.

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  4. Actually, in DC the YOY rate of decline dropped from 19.47% in Nov to 19.24% in Dec. Not much, but the first such drop in 15 straight months.

    Also, CS now puts out a seasonal tiered price index. In DC high end housing posted a very very modest (+0.14%) gain in Dec. Not very meaningful, but again, the first such increase in 15 months.

    http://tinyurl.com/ataq4d

    Is this a blip, or is it the beginning of the moderation of the downturn? I guess we shall see.

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  5. "Is this a blip, or is it the beginning of the moderation of the downturn? I guess we shall see."

    Unless all foreclosures freeze like they did in Dec, it was just a blip.

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  6. It very well could be the beginning of moderation, but understand what that means.

    Prices started going negative in summer 06. Meaning it took 2.5 years to get to the peak in price declines.

    The peak is usually the 1/2 way point, meaning that we have another 2.5 years to go til we see any chance of prices rising.

    So I think its very likely the declines are moderating, but the point is we still have a few years to go til bottom is reached.

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  7. It looks like Forbes picked up on the moderating trend too.

    "That slowing rate of decline — also seen in places such as Denver, Washington, D.C. and Boston — helped rank those cities as some of the stronger markets in the country."

    http://realestate.msn.com/article.aspx?cp-documentid=18080758&gt1=35000

    Whats amazing is this is enough to put DC as the 2nd best market in the country. Just shows you how bad it is when a market nearly down 20% yoy is #2 nationwide.

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  8. Is anyone honestly surprised?

    Just take a look at this map:
    http://tinyurl.com/d6p4cx

    Look at how dramatic the change in lending practices was during the bubble.

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  9. Seriously....

    Why is anyone surprised prices are coming down? How can people expect prices to double and triple in 5-6 years beyond the norm and not expect them to come back down?

    The shock on some peoples' faces makes me laugh my ass off.

    Here's to the crash. I love it.

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  10. ANON: February 25, 2009 9:55 AM

    That modest increase is more likely a statistical error and reflects the drop of lower priced homes off the selling market more than anything else.

    It's a tactic NAR used all the time to show people the median home price was going up back when this shit started. What they didn't tell people was the cheap homes were dropping off the market and pushing the median price up due to their absence.

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  11. Who's got popcorn?!?!?! I love this crash. To any boosters out there: When does your ARM reset and how does your equity position look? Idiots.

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  12. Naturally lance won't be able to detect any correlation between areas where people were borrowing too much money and the areas where the bubble was the worst.

    Never underestimate someone's ability to fail to understand something they don't want to understand.

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  13. "Noz said...
    ANON: February 25, 2009 9:55 AM

    That modest increase is more likely a statistical error and reflects the drop of lower priced homes off the selling market more than anything else.

    It's a tactic NAR used all the time to show people the median home price was going up back when this shit started. What they didn't tell people was the cheap homes were dropping off the market and pushing the median price up due to their absence."

    Noz - clearly you cant be that clueless. This isnt some BS NAR median stat. This is Case Shiller. In case you didnt know, Case Shiller uses SAME HOUSE SALES. It was Case Shiller who said prices were UP.

    As I noted, it very well could be a blip, but again it is what it is...

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  14. "Anonymous said...
    Naturally lance won't be able to detect any correlation between areas where people were borrowing too much money and the areas where the bubble was the worst.

    Never underestimate someone's ability to fail to understand something they don't want to understand."

    Seriously, someone out there has a major hard on for Lance!

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  15. ANON February 26, 2009 9:26 AM

    NO I think you're the one who's missing something here.

    I never said the NAR was LYING. I said the NAR used that particular statistic in a way that made it look like home prices are going up.

    Whether the motivations of CS are the same or not I don't really care about. But the fact that such stats can give you the wrong impression has to do with how the numbers fall out if you don't dig deeper.

    And to think it's anything other than a blip...in this market???? What are you seriously thinking?

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  16. "Noz said...

    Whether the motivations of CS are the same or not I don't really care about. But the fact that such stats can give you the wrong impression has to do with how the numbers fall out if you don't dig deeper."

    Ahh weve come full circle now. As the prices dropped, the bears all loved Case Shiller, while the bulls questioned the motives of CS.

    Now, the first time it shows the prices going up, the bears are out questioning the motives of CS.

    Aah the irony of it all!!!

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  17. Bears, Bulls, CS....who cares? Prices have dropped since Dec incase nobody noticed. It is near March now, yet things arent going up are they?

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  18. "Now, the first time it shows the prices going up, the bears are out questioning the motives of CS."

    Thats actually a good counterindicator. At the end of the last downturn in 1996, 1997, (when the internet was in its infancy), AOL had a bunch of message boards dedicated to the housing bubble.

    Prices started going positive around then, and then the denial got intense. NO WAY, NAR IS LYING, DEAD CAT BOUNCE!

    This continued into 1998 when it was clear to all but those in the deepest depths of denial that the market was up.

    I expect to see the same thing again this time. Slowly as we start to see the signs of a true dawn (be it now, 2010, 2011, whenever), you will still have the NOZs of the world here screaming it aint over, when it clearly is.

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  19. We aren't near a bottom yet, these cycles simply take far longer than this to play out. We didn't see real price declines until 2007 or 2008 depending on the area. We have several years to go.

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  20. February 26, 2009 11:45 AM ANON:

    I really wish you could read. It's an important trait to have these days.

    I NEVER SAID the CS has motivations of any kind. I SAID NAR was using the same statistical data to make people think the housing prices are going up.

    Obviously, such data without any bias makes you think that. It has nothing to do with CS.

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  21. We didn't see real price declines until 2007 or 2008 depending on the area.

    Peak was actually summer 2006. Look it up.

    Noz - all I am saying is I saw this once before back in the late 90s - at the time, the general consensus in that chat room was we had 2-3 more years to go.

    The first signs of a downturn are met by the bulls with doubt and denial. The first signs of a true bottom (whenever that may be) are always met with doubt or denial.

    I still think this is a blip. However knowing what I do about groupthink, you better believe I sure as hell am paying attention now.

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  22. ANON February 26, 2009 1:30 PM

    Noz's of the world? Seriously. Are you that dim? Look around you. Look at all the people losing their jobs, losing their homes, credit being unavailable to many, most people have negative savings.

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  23. ANON February 26, 2009 5:12 PM

    This is nothing like the 90's. This far bigger than the 90's. And frankly I don't care about groupthink.

    The data tells the story..not what a group here states. That's where I'm coming from.

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  24. "We didn't see real price declines until 2007 or 2008 depending on the area.

    Peak was actually summer 2006. Look it up. "

    You need to learn how to read. The guy said real price delines didnt start until 2008. You can look that up too. Montgomery county for example didnt have a real dip until about Sept last year.

    Nobody said anything about the peak. You should spend more time reading, rather than posting.

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  25. "Look around you. Look at all the people losing their jobs, losing their homes, credit being unavailable to many, most people have negative savings." Noz Feb 09

    "The job losses are just beginning. Look at the foreclosure rates - data quick says they are at a RECORD - how can you be so dense as to think this can be over anyime soon!!!" AOL blogs Summer 96

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  26. Wow...you really are dim. Good luck to you.

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  27. As is the case with most of the idiot anony comments, it is Lance and his old sidekick KH...

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  28. "As is the case with most of the idiot anony comments, it is Lance and his old sidekick KH..."

    Says leroy - posting anonymously....

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  29. That wasn't Leroy, I would know.

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  30. "That wasn't Leroy, I would know."

    Says Leroy - posting anonymously.

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