Bubble Meter is a national housing bubble blog dedicated to tracking the continuing decline of the housing bubble throughout the USA. It is a long and slow decline. Housing prices were simply unsustainable. National housing bubble coverage. Please join in the discussion.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Shiller: Difficult to predict when "biggest bubble in history" will hit bottom
It is very difficult to predict when U.S. housing prices will hit bottom because the economy is deteriorating so quickly, economist Robert Shiller, co-creator of the S&P/Case Shiller index, told Reuters on Friday.
The housing market is experiencing its worst downturn in modern history. On a national basis, homes have lost about a quarter of their value, and economists foresee at least an additional 10 percent decline.
What the future holds depends on what sort of traction government programs gain to help stem foreclosures, Shiller said.
"It's hard to predict this market because we've just been through the biggest bubble in history and it's at the time of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression," he said in an interview with Reuters television.
Shiller noted that prices have been falling quite rapidly every month, adding, "That has a good chance of continuing."
The best way to get the housing market thriving again is to drop prices to the point where supply equals demand. Home sellers might not like it, but it's good for buyers and it's great for Realtors.
For Realtors, the best way to make more money is to sell houses quickly, and the best way to sell houses quickly is to convince the seller to drop the price.
Yale University economist Robert Shiller thinks the outlook for housing is hazy:
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