Monday, September 27, 2010

The dismal state of the new home market

New building permits are near an all-time low:


New housing starts are near an all-time low:


And new home sales are at rock bottom:


The gray portions of the graphs indicate recessions. As you'll notice, a recovery in new home construction has been an essential part of almost all economic recoveries. ...But we're not getting that this time.

21 comments:

  1. At this point, month-to-month percentage changes are meaningless since the base has fallen so low. In not too long, year-to-year percent changes will be equally meaningless.

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  2. This will have no impact on Washington, DC.

    Let them eat cake.

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  3. Housing prices don't matter in Medellin, Colombia, either, for similar reasons. I'd rather eat Latin food than hang with a bunch of white twats who get their low-synapse power fix from living off other people's hard work.

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  4. I have to wonder that if there is meaningful change in government after the elections and the number of Federal workers level and decline what that would do DC market?

    Hah -- 'meaningful change' -- not possible whoever wins or loses.

    Answered my own question.

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  5. Per case shiller - home prices in DC area are up - again.

    Index now stands at 187.98. This is up 1% MOM and up about 14% over the absolute bottom of 165 seen back in March 2009.

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  6. "Index now stands at 187.98. This is up 1% MOM and up about 14% over the absolute bottom of 165 seen back in March 2009."

    NOZ???, NOZ???, wherefor out thou NOZZIE? Come tell us how CS drops down to 135 2 years from now. Come out come out wherever you are!

    NONPARTISAN???, NONPARTISAN??? Tell us about the RAPID decline as CS hits 100 2 years from now. COME OUT AND PLAY DEAR NONPARTISAN - CAW CAW CAW!!!

    BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!

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  7. Lookie here, the Financial Stability Board (courtesy of the IMF) is going to help determine who can get a mortgage loan...

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/25a20baa-c4c3-11df-bc11-00144feab49a.html

    I'm sure that will do wonders for real estate, everywhere. Blame the crisis on "greedy homeowners" instead of stinking greedy bankers who were handed trillions in taxpayer money. This will only serve to drive the wedge of bad karma deeper... these guys are going to make sure private property ownership becomes illegal... that seems to be on their list of things to do. Just ask Maurice Strong.

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  8. Do not worry or hold your breath. The end game is getting worse every day. The curves are being pushed down the x-axis,but that will only result in an eventually even more devastating y-axis nadir.

    WATCH-----AND------LEARN

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  9. I must agree with nonpartisan -- the more intervention we do to soften the blow, the worse the purge will be in the end and the longer it will take to recover. Lot's of people will be hurt.

    What I've learned during the last twenty years is that things like this can stumble along decades longer than any reasonable estimate would divine.

    But recovery will come. At least it always has before.

    Things were rotting in Rome for centuries before it fell, but when it fell the Dark Ages only lasted, what, a few hundred years. And the recovery that followed was a good one.

    It's all good.

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  10. funny things said on this blog as prices bottomed:


    "Anonymous said...Give me a name so that I can call you out 2 or 3 months later as prices keep dropping. Then again 6 to 8 months, and again next year as well. Believe me, I will remember this conversation, as I do Lances bullshit back in 06

    May 29, 2009 6:27 AM"


    Wow - I look back at posts like these and just laugh and laugh and laugh!!!

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  11. Yeesh...the vitriol!

    I have started mapping the foreclosures - Trustee's Sales - in my little pocket of DC - Petworth, 16th St. Heights and Crestwood. I'm actually surprised by how many there are. No CS predictions - I still see monthly numbers that suggest we are 10% down YoY and that trend seems to be continuing, but the CS is not sensitive to changes in the housing mix (ie, higher-end homes - higher-end buyers are less constrained by the downturn). We'll see...but I think the general thrust - that DC isn't going to tank - is solid.

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  12. Just take a deep breath and chill out. The real estate market is going to be just fine. We just have to give it ample time to rebound.

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  13. Chuck, please place index finger in each ear and repeat this over and over : "LA LA LA LA LA...."

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  14. Well it has to go up, thats the bright side!

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  15. "nonpartisan said...
    Chuck, please place index finger in each ear and repeat this over and over : "LA LA LA LA LA...."

    You are one to talk.

    When you and I first started discussing house values, case shiller was at 165. I said it could be the bottom. My rationale was based on fundamentals like months of inventory, income growth, etc. You disagreed saying it will bottom at 100. Your rationale for this price was nothing but platitudes like "Watch and Learn" and "all bellcurves complete".

    In the past 18 months, prices have slowly lurched forward from 165 to 187. Yet you continue to insist we will bottom at 100, while repeating over and over "Watch and Learn LA LA LA LA...Bellcurves must complete, LA LA LA LA LA..."

    Pot calling the kettle my friend.

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  16. This is up 1% MOM and up about 14% over the absolute bottom of 165 seen back in March 2009.

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  17. You guys are just plain idiots! Sickening debate!!

    Bill

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  18. When unemployment drops this slide will slow.

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  19. I have started mapping the foreclosures - Trustee's Sales - in my little pocket of DC - Petworth, 16th St. Heights and Crestwood. I'm actually surprised by how many there are. No CS predictions - I still see monthly numbers that suggest we are 10% down YoY and that trend seems to be continuing, but the CS is not sensitive to changes in the housing mix (ie, higher-end homes - higher-end buyers are less constrained by the downturn). We'll see...but I think the general thrust - that DC isn't going to tank - is solid.

    We're seeing this across town as well. The housing "crash" has had exactly one noticeable impact: nuisance properties are being gutted, renovated, and sold at the going market price.

    If I were an asshole, I'd say the crash is the best thing that's ever happened to gentrifying DC; speculators are finally replacing the "rotten teeth" with new ones.

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