Existing home sales bounced back in August after plunging nearly 30% in the previous month.
Sales of previously-owned homes rose 7.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million units last month, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday. That's up from 3.84 million in July, but down 19% from a year ago. ...
"I would call August's number less toxic — it wasn't pretty but it wasn't the ugliest," said Mark Tepper, managing partner of Strategic Wealth Partners. "We're still down 21.5% from June and sales dropped significantly in July, so the hurdle was just so low that you almost had to beat it." ...
After steadily rising in previous months, the inventory of homes on the market edged down 0.6% in August to 3.98 million units.
But that's enough supply to last 11.6 months. To hit a balance between supply and demand, inventory should only last 4.5 to 6 months, said Tepper.
Such swollen inventory levels will continue to pressure home prices, he cautioned.
The median price of homes sold in August was $178,600, down 1.9% from the previous month and up a slight 0.8% from a year ago, the report showed. About a third of homes sold during the month were in foreclosure. ...
What does this mean for home-buyers and sellers?
"If you're a homebuyer, sell now if you can," said Tepper. "If you're looking to buy, wait a while."
That's because prices are likely to sink another 10% to 25% in the next 18 to 24 months as the economic recovery remains sluggish, said Tepper.
"This whole housing mess is a disaster that's going to last a while," he said.
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Existing home sales down 19% YoY
Existing home sales for August were up 7.6% month-over-month, but down 19% year-over-year:
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"About a third of homes sold during the month were in foreclosure. ..."
ReplyDeleteSounds like a Tsunami of foreclosures!
Foreclosures will slow down in the middle of 2012. This is when option ARM mortgage loans stop resetting.
ReplyDeleteIn the meantime, invest in precious metals, which are heading up on a weak US dollar.
Great Post with some good information
ReplyDelete"About a third of homes sold during the month were in foreclosure. ..."
ReplyDeleteSounds like a Tsunami of foreclosures!"
Only 1/3? Thats down quite a bit from Jan 2009 when it was 45%...back when people were saying, "just wait the TSUNAMI is coming soon."
It was 45% in Jan.? Was that nation wide?
ReplyDeleteLocally, the town I work in, Santa Maria, CA had 50% foreclosures in 2008, the median price fell by almost half.
Where I live, San Luis Obispo, the foreclosures have crept up to about 25%. Prices have come down by about 1/3.
Anyway, I saw someone rag on Mr. Mortgage here. Basically he was right though. I banked on his advice and didn't buy only to watch my purchasing power increase over the last 3 years.
I'd be wary of any market where the median home price exceeds 4 times the median income.
They ragged on Mr.Mortgage because there is a 3 square mile area near DC that hasnt been acting like the rest of the country....
ReplyDeleteIf you dont live in that 3 square mile, you can ignore their retarded rants. Everything else he said applies.
They ragged on Mr.Mortgage because there is a 3 square mile area near DC that hasnt been acting like the rest of the country....
ReplyDeleteBut I thought "its different here" was untrue?
They ragged on Mr. Mortgage because he said things like this - in march 2009 - right at the bottom...
ReplyDelete“HUGE amount of loan modifications…houses that are in the loan modification process are being DUMPED on to the market, and when these houses get dumped into the market THIS fall THIS winter, your going to see ARMAGEDDON in real estate prices, which are going to trigger massive defaults on a BIBLICAL scale…all that property is going to hit the market and you are going to see an AVALANCHE of properties hitting the market, which will then in turn crush the price of real estate about 50% from where we are today.”
Amen! Amen!
ReplyDeleteBill
'But I thought "its different here" was untrue?'
ReplyDeleteI wouldnt know. I dont live in DC, so I dont give a shit. Mr. Mortgage was spot on with the rest of the world though.
wouldnt know. I dont live in DC, so I dont give a shit. Mr. Mortgage was spot on with the rest of the world though.
ReplyDeleteYep - people in Des Moines Iowa, Goodnight Oklahoma, and East Jesus North Dakota who listened to Mr. Mortgage and were sure the AVALANCHE would hit their town are surely feasting on the -50% drop in prices from March 09 til today...
Mr. Mortgage left the prognostication business to go star in a movie with Ashton Kutcher. A buddy comedy called, "dude, wheres my tsunami".
ReplyDeleteSo you either live in Arlington or "Des Moines Iowa, Goodnight Oklahoma, and East Jesus North Dakota"?
ReplyDeleteNo, but the comment was Mr. Mortgage was spot on for the "rest of the world" though.
ReplyDeleteReally? Did Des Moines get infected with a bunch of flippers pushing values higher and higher? Did East Jesus residents theorize that home values were exploding because everyone wants to live there?
No. What Mr. Mortgage said was applicable to some parts of the coasts, and thats about it. For the rest of the world, his ramblings didnt mean jack shit.
No, but the comment was Mr. Mortgage was spot on for the "rest of the world" though.
ReplyDeleteWhen he said "the rest of the world" he obviously meant CA, Las Vegas, and the Greater Phoenix metropolitan area.
Can't you read between the lines??