Tuesday, September 14, 2010

New record for bank repossessions

CNBC reports that bank repossessions of homes hit a new record in August:
The nation's banks repossessed a record number of homes in August, according to industry sources. RealtyTrac, an online foreclosure sale site, will release its monthly numbers on Thursday, but sources there confirm the number of repossessions will come in just shy of 100,000 for the month.

That is the highest since the site began tracking in 2005. July's repossession number was the second highest on record. The last highest was 93,777 in May of 2010. ...

Yesterday J.P. Morgan Chase cited the "shadow inventory" of foreclosed properties as one of their primary reasons for pushing back their expectations for a housing recovery as far as 2014. No question, a growing supply of repossessed properties will put further downward pressure on home prices, especially given the current 12.5 month supply of existing homes already for sale.


  1. This data appears to be consistent with everything that we are seeing in the local Columbus Ohio market area. Trend is definitely moving in the direction of "Things are Getting Worse", not better.

    Vito Boscaino
    Encore Asset Management of Ohio Realty

  2. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

  3. OK, so it happened--Gray won. Now we going to see hipsterville DC properties dive to within an affordable range for your kindly federal public servants? Columbia Heights, Petworth, I'm looking at you...

  4. Hey JAC, The only thing that is going to drive prices down in DC is a hefty reduction in the federal work force!!!!

  5. JAC: A comment from DCist:

    "Martin, you're being very optimistic. Gray's base will demand scalps. Rhee's is number one. But, let's just put it this way: I wouldn't want to be a white director head right now. Gray may not exhibit a desire to knock back the "newcomers" but his base does. Look at those results. Gray lost in Wards two and three badly. Not as badly as Fenty did in seven and eight, but the lesson is clear. Gray has more to lose by alienating wards seven and eight than he does by winning over Fenty voters in wards two and three. It's depressing that that's where we still are as a city, but it's true. "

    As someone who lived in the district for a looong time and worked at multiple federal agencies downtown, I'm here to tell you: the vast majority of federal employees DO NOT live in DC.

  6. Hey James, By DC I meant the city and all the suburbs!!


  7. debbie said...
    "An impressive site. Are you planning to write anything about store supplies, such as tagging guns? It would make for an interest read."

    Oh yes, Debbie, I love writing about store supplies! You're right, it makes for a very interesting read. Spam deleted.

  8. Mmm, DC's suburbs. McMansions are on sale in DC's suburbs. Any takers?

  9. Hilarious - I wanted to stop by and see what the post election spin was!

    JAC - I've been marveling at Petworth - my GF owns there, and bought early in the bubble before it got insane. These people talk about how anything under $600k is such a great deal...and I genuinely marvel at the heaps they think are worth >.$5M.

    The election won't make one whit's difference - that was just silliness being posted. Sales volume declines will - especially coupled with the flood of MoCo foreclosures I keep seeing in every Friday's WaPo. I did, much to my surprise, see a Foreclosure in Petworth...there is a lot of shadow inventory being "managed" by the banks I think. Sales volume was way off...the median price can be very misleading, since the mix of stock actually selling can change...

  10. So what is the solution to the overpriced over hyped houses and condos Mr. Montpellier?

  11. Michelle Rhee vowed to quit if Fenty didn't get re elected.

    Viable communities include children.

    Viable communities see low turnover in housing stock.

    Viable communities retain higher than average housing values.

    Who can connect those dots for us?

  12. From CNBC:
    We spoke to two sellers in Northern Virginia, Stephanie and Gabriel Mikulasek, who have dropped their asking price by $21,000. "We thought it was the value of the house that we could probably get, if the market would pick up a little bit, and people were a little positive," Gabriel told us. "What we found out is that the market is pretty slow; people are very hesitant to make bids, so we decided to make it a little more attractive and lessen it, and see how it goes." They say today's buyers are only looking for great deals, so if you price the home at its actual value, nobody's interested. You have to go below.

    Below in NVA? I thought this place was immune from price reductions. How low can they go?

  13. "How low can they go?"

    318K - see the 3rd chart from the top:


    That price point was hit in Feb 2009 - a full 18 months ago...

  14. RE: Petworth... I thought this was a very good deal, am I nuts? Too far north? http://www.redfin.com/DC/Washington/4614-5th-St-NW-20011/home/10058093

  15. "318K - see the 3rd chart from the top"

    When artificial life support existed.

  16. The answer is time. Take a peek at the listing JAC posted, but that is a good (appropriate) non-bubble price, IMHO. That is a fair walk (time-wise) to the metro station.

    Lots of arguments on here about how DC is different - mainly because of the influx of higher-income folks over the past decade. I say a lot of it is the same credit bubble that existed elsewhere - I don't think DC incomes ramped up as fast as DC house prices, though the buyer mix may have changed.

    I say again: prices will continue to decline, particularly in recently gentrified areas (ie, not west of the park).

    The Fenty(Rhee)/Gray argument suggests that w/o Fenty, that upper-income influx will revert. I don't buy it. I also don't buy the idea the credit bubble didn't affect things in DC.

    I think the inside-the-beltway income shift has more to do with horrible commute times (making close-in location worth more) than anything else..that and people having kids later in life (so they'll buy a house before they have a family), and not care so much about schools and crime.

    The whole bit about schools and crime: the improvements have as much or more to do with the population shifts than they do with policies. I think the Mayor is largely irrelevant.

  17. Time will tell.

    Got time? (a decade will do)

  18. Anon - thanks for posting that price chart. Its interesting to see (via graph form) how much prices have rebounded since that Feb 2009 low.

    As far as the sellers in that story go - part of the problem is greed. Yes, prices have risen, but not like they did back in 2000-2006 when sellers could dictate terms. The sellers today think the 2000-2006 bubble period has returned.

    While it may very well be that the bottom has hit, that does not mean we re-bubble once again. At best they can expect 2-3% gains from here on out.

  19. The housing bust has changed the way potential buyers like Sean Hughes look at trade-offs between owning and renting. He plunked down $3,500 for a deposit on a condominium in Charlotte, N.C., four years ago, but backed out after prices plunged.

    Mr. Hughes, a 26-year-old graduate student and research assistant, said that as he watches unemployed friends struggle to move because they don't have enough equity in their homes to sell, homeownership looks like an "economic trap." He currently rents a one-bedroom apartment for $800 a month and said he and his fiance don't plan to buy a home for about 10 years.

    "It's the lifestyle we eventually want," he said, but being "mobile and adaptable" to the job market is far more important right now than being wedded to a 30 year mortgage.

  20. So what, exactly, is the government spending its money on? I mean, aren't they trying to keep people in their homes? Or are they really just interested in backing the banks and reinflating the bubble?

  21. Why did you stop updating your Case Shiller graph? Does the data no longer support the story you are trying to sell?

  22. NoeValleyJim said...
    "Why did you stop updating your Case Shiller graph? Does the data no longer support the story you are trying to sell?"

    I have not stopped updating it. My main graph is only one quarter out of date. It's updated through Q1 2010 and the Q2 data just came out 2-1/2 weeks ago. I always lag at updating my graphs. I have a life besides writing about the housing bubble, you know.

    Also, my graph is not a "Case-Shiller" graph. I started my graph before S&P started publishing the Case-Shiller index. Although I now use the Case-Shiller national home price index for the 1987-present period, my graph extends back to 1970, which the S&P/Case-Shiller index does not.