The National Bureau of Economic Research is the arbiter of official recession start and end dates.
They have determined that June 2009 was the end date for the most recent recession:The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months.
In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month. A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle. Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion.
The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007. The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date.
To reiterate: The recession being over doesn't mean the economy is healthy again. It just means that economic output is no longer receding, thus the word "recession". We've still got high unemployment and economic activity is well below its potential. This graph shows the economy started to grow again in Q2, 2009:
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Paid-for organized media psy-op to get the masses used to the ideas of "recovery" and "loss of standard of living" at the same time. Seems to be an effort to pacify the masses.
ReplyDeleteKeep hitting someone in the head with a hammer and maybe they'll tolerate it if you soothingly tell them they are "okay" at the same time.
Lots of money/power to be had the longer the people tolerate this. Worthwhile ROI on the media purchase.
James - Looks like you might have been right all along. You might want to go back and check your archives as I seem to recall you saying in June/July 2009 that (based on the yield curve) the recession is over.
ReplyDeleteIf so good call - you nailed that one.
The housing bubble may not be over. A friend of mine has a foreclosure defense attorney, Christine Axsmith who is using RICO to sue the mortgage companies. If successful, that could really impact the dynamic of how many properties are on the market.
ReplyDeleteHer website is axsmith.net
Between 1985 and 2001, the National Bureau of Economic Research received $9,963,301 in 73 grants from only four foundations:
ReplyDelete1) John M. Olin Foundation, Inc.
2) Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation
3) Scaife Foundations (Sarah Mellon Scaife)
4) Smith Richardson Foundation
None of these foundations are politically objective. Hardly. They are heavy financial contributers to major privately owned right-wing thinktanks, include the AEI, CFR, PNAC, Brookings Institute, etc.
Scaife was built upon the fabulous fortunes of the Mellon banking family.
Doesn't anyone do any research into who is funding what anymore, before they take these sources as "objective truth"?
Doesn't anyone do any research into who is funding what anymore, before they take these sources as "objective truth"?
ReplyDeleteNo, but then again, these guys have been around since the 1920s. They have called the beginning of recessions (despite the obvious desire of some to declare "all is well").
Moreover, they have a good track record. for example, they called the end of the 1973 recession. Is anyone arguing that their call was "biased" and the 73 recession continues, unabated, to this day?
Agendas change. They don't stay the same for 90 years straight. Your argument is based on the assumption that everything stays the same, all the time. You do follow world politics, correct? Everything still seem the same to you as it did in 1920?
ReplyDeleteHere is the new agenda of the folks pumping this information out -- courtesy of noted economist, Michael Hudson...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.counterpunch.org/hudson09202010.html
"Agendas change. They don't stay the same for 90 years straight. Your argument is based on the assumption that everything stays the same, all the time. You do follow world politics, correct? Everything still seem the same to you as it did in 1920?"
ReplyDeleteSo again, why did they say "we are in a recession" back in 2007, despite the wishes of the powers that be that "all is fine, no recession here"???
Anonymous said...
ReplyDelete"They are heavy financial contributers to major privately owned right-wing thinktanks, include the AEI, CFR, PNAC, Brookings Institute, etc."
Brookings is widely considered LEFT-WING. The Council on Foreign Relations isn't right-wing, either. In fact, it's generally hated by right-wing xenophobes like yourself.
The NBER is widely respected by professional economists on all sides of the political spectrum.
All you're doing is hurling fallacious arguments. It's like saying that if Michael Moore contributes money to a university math department, and that math department says 1 + 1 = 2, no one should trust that 1 + 1 = 2.
Furthermore, I posted a graph of government data proving that the economy began expanding again in Q2 2009. But you don't trust government data either, do you? No, there is no knowledge in the world. Everyone has an agenda. Don't trust anyone who says something you don't already "know".
Here's an L.A. Times news story about LEFT-WING economist Paul Krugman roughly agreeing with NBER fifteen months early. From June 8, 2009:
Some traders said the last-hour rally was sparked by comments from Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman, who said in a London speech that he would "not be surprised if the official end of the U.S. recession ends up being, in retrospect, dated sometime this summer."
Krugman has been mostly downbeat about the economy’s future because he doesn’t believe that the Obama administration has done enough to ensure a strong recovery.
But he already has said that the recession could end this summer. He told an audience in Hong Kong on May 22 that the ending point of the downturn may be dated (after the fact) to August.
Note: I actually like Michael Moore. I just used him as an example because he's a popular target of the far right wing.
ReplyDeleteI'll go one step farther -- the recession isn't over -- there never was a recession. And there never was a housing bubble.
ReplyDeleteGlad we cleared that up.