Monday, February 13, 2006

Will there be a Spring Boom?

Spring is the busiest season for real estate. "Indeed, April through July outpace the balance of the year in sales, historic data at the National Association of Realtors indicates. So there'll surely be more home inventory and variety then. But you better move fast, because that's just what other home hunters are doing (Bankrate)."

Some real estate agents are hoping a hopping spring will reverse the current price declines occurring in most bubble markets. The hope is that with the spring season a large amount of buyers will swoop in, raise demand, and bid up prices. Real Estate Blanche Evans writes "What about housing? There's a lot of positive news that suggests that housing may have had its "rest." Spring might catapult housing into another record year."

On February 8th, the Wall Street Journal reported that "With the key spring selling season about to get under way, the inventory of homes on the market is climbing sharply in a number of major cities. Nationwide, there were 2.8 million existing houses and condominiums on the market at year end, according to the National Association of Realtors. That is down slightly from November's 2.9 million listings, but up 26% from a year earlier. Adjusted for seasonal variations, inventories have climbed 38% since April, according to Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Economist Jan Hatzius, the largest eight-month increase on record."

For some sellers and market analysts their hope is focused on a solid spring. The coming reality in spring will be more buyers but also more sellers. Inventory will continue to increase in most bubble markets. Prices will likely continue to fall during the spring months or at best remain flat in the bubble markets. This year's spring selling season will be very disappointing for sellers expecting the madness of last year's spring.

5 comments:

  1. I think you're right that there will be no spring boom.

    IMO, there may be little boomlets as small price reductions lure in the last marginal buyers.

    But I think that when all is said and done, the real estate industry is going to need a new excuse come June of this year. Wait until spring may not work anymore.

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  2. NAR admits the market is cyclical, but that works both ways for buyser and sellers. its seems to be a buyers market now with prices falling. But in the spring, things could really balance out with sellers getting a slight boost. Of course no multiple-madness contracts, but prices closer to the ask w/o a laundry list of contingencies in contracts.

    www.dcbubble.blogspot.com

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  3. I see no spring boom- I agree a few marginal buyers will swoop in and catch the 'falling knife' But I think at mid year inventories will continue to rise- thats when the fun begins kids- and rates will continue to rise as well. Blood in the streets real soon. Alot of realtors are going to be very disappointed.

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  4. Look, the Real Estate supporters are going to use every excuse in the book to wring every last drop of blood from this carcass before pronouncing it dead. When the Spring spike in sales fails to appear, then they will look forward to the Summer when everyone looks to buy for the upcoming school year. It doesn't MATTER if they are right, it only MATTERS that they keep some suckers buying.

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  5. I suppose waiting for spring keeps some people from lowering their asking prices on houses they are selling now. That might work if few new houses are added. But what happens when even more houses are dumped onto the market.

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