Friday, March 13, 2009

Bank of America CEO on housing


Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis made some interesting comments on housing yesterday. From MarketWatch.com:
"Housing is the single most important factor," Lewis said. "Housing may be bottoming. We're looking for house prices to stabilize. So the first sign of an improving economy would be that housing is stabilizing.
I love the logic being used. I'm sorry, but I pay close attention to housing data. There is no sign of a bottom occurring in 2009 (except in Arizona and Nevada). This is just another example of wishful thinking among people who want there to be a bottom in housing. Financial professionals have been predicting a bottom since 2005, yet they keep being wrong.

18 comments:

  1. "James said...

    I'm sorry, but I pay close attention to housing data. There is no sign of a bottom occurring in 2009 (except in Arizona and Nevada)."

    What about PWC (second chart from the top)

    http://www.recharts.com/mris/mris_11.html

    Prices are flat, exactly where they were 10 years ago adjusted for inflation. That LOOKS like a bottom to me (may not be, but it sure looks like it).

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  2. Could you please post photos of Ms. Malkin instead of this guy from Bank of America.

    I don't care if she is ugly or not; her countenance isn't going to cause me to lose my lunch as this guy is doing.

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  3. James - maybe he meant "signs of a bottom" in the bubble areas like CA, AZ, FL, NV, etc. After all thats the markets that are killing the big banks with their huge concentration of foreclosures.

    Heck even by your admission NV & AZ are close (plus that graph from PWC is pretty convincing too) - so maybe he was talking about bubble areas being close to the bottom.

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  4. My God - its starting:

    "So what's to become of all those leafy subdivisions with their Palladian detailing and tasteful signage? Already low or middle-income families priced out of cities and better neighborhoods are moving into McMansions divided for multi-family use."

    "Alison Arieff, who blogs for The New York Times, visited one such tract mansion that was split into four units, or "quartets," each with its own entrance, which is not unlike what happened to many stately homes in the 1930s."

    http://finance.yahoo.com/family-home/article/106732/Suburbia-R-I-P;_ylt=AsvtVnKseoYsS1uWxxh_mWtO7sMF

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  5. under your national housing sites:
    click: Housing Tracker
    then click: Riverside California

    looks to me like low end range areas in calif such as riverside are moderating.

    probably depends on peoples definition of bottoming, but to me, when you look through a number of locals in california, the price declines in many areas seem to be moderating. I am currently selling a bank repo i bought and fixed up. The buyer had been a renter, and his monthly payment on the home he is buying is the same as his rent was, only difference is he now has a 5 bedroom home on a huge lot instead of a two bedroom apartment.

    high end range in calif still has room to drop though

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  6. A couple months of foreclosure moratoriums probably hasn't effected the market at all...

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  7. "The buyer had been a renter, and his monthly payment on the home he is buying is the same as his rent was, only difference is he now has a 5 bedroom home on a huge lot instead of a two bedroom apartment."

    See thats why DC area sucks. Cause a mortgage would be 3-5 times higher than rent. We are still waiting for things to drop some more.

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  8. How bout it James - are you sure there are NO signs of bottom? PWC looks like a bottom to me.

    James???

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  9. Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis is a lying sack of shit. Just like the rest of them.

    Let me ask people a question here...which has a very obvious answer...but the responses I get will tell about the way people think depending on their response.

    What can possible make people think that these CEOs and Wall Street scumbags have changed in anyway between now and say 2-3 years ago?

    I'll give you my answer....they haven't. They are the same lying pieces of bull dung they were then. They'll say anything to make another dollar...because that dollar is more important than ANY of you.

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  10. "The buyer had been a renter, and his monthly payment on the home he is buying is the same as his rent was, only difference is he now has a 5 bedroom home on a huge lot instead of a two bedroom apartment."
    btw, this bank repo home i bought is located in a nice area of southern california.

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  11. your graph of house prices adjusted for inflation needs one more adjustment,...adjust the inflation adjusted house prices for historical loan coupons as well (which are now in the 5% area).
    if you use 5% loan coupons for today, which people can get today, you will see the current adjusted price now becomes close to 125,000

    thanks for the data

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  12. James - are you out there?

    PWC graph - looks like bottom or not.

    James...James?????

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  13. "See thats why DC area sucks. Cause a mortgage would be 3-5 times higher than rent. We are still waiting for things to drop some more."

    You know, there are affordable houses in Largo, Bowie, and Laurel. A mortgage payment there won't be 3-5 times higher than your rent. In fact, I doubt it would be 10% higher than your rent. Why not move there?

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  14. "You know, there are affordable houses in Largo, Bowie, and Laurel. A mortgage payment there won't be 3-5 times higher than your rent. In fact, I doubt it would be 10% higher than your rent. Why not move there?"

    HA! I love a good insightful rhetorical barb. Thanks Allen.

    (prices have come down a bit in Manassass too, from what I've heard. One can always move there)

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  15. I'm still waiting for a 3 BR/ 2 BA detached house in NW DC or on Capitol Hill for $200K. Can anyone give me some insight into when I can expect to move in?

    Thanks!

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  16. assuming you put 20% down on your detached house, your monthly payment would be about $850.

    what can you rent a 3br/2ba detached house for in nw dc or capital hill? if its more than $850 you may be waiting a while.

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  17. The Anonymous said...
    "What about PWC"

    Sorry about the slow response. Hopefully I answered your question.

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  18. Anonymous said...
    James - maybe he meant "signs of a bottom" in the bubble areas like CA, AZ, FL, NV, etc. After all thats the markets that are killing the big banks with their huge concentration of foreclosures.

    Then he'd still be wrong. The foreclosures in CA and FL dwarf those in the much smaller states of AZ and NV. CA and FL are still not at bottom.

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