Monday, March 02, 2009

Where the dangerous home mortgages are

This map is for 2007:
Source.
Posted by at 7:02 AM
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21 comments:

  1. UnknownMarch 02, 2009 7:23 AM

    Is there a bigger version of this somewhere?

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  2. JamesMarch 02, 2009 8:20 AM

    Not that I'm aware of.

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  3. AnonymousMarch 02, 2009 8:36 AM

    Look how dark blue MD is!!!! Why havent prices dropped yet? Im still waiting to buy a home.

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  4. AnonymousMarch 02, 2009 8:45 AM

    The Maryland paradox continues....perhaps prices were actually low for the last century, and now finally at the "right price"

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  5. AnonymousMarch 02, 2009 8:52 AM

    yeah over 4 times your annual salary sounds about right. I think loaves of bread should be raised to $500 a loaf as well, but only for the DC metro area. (there is money here dont you know?)

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  6. BedlamMarch 02, 2009 10:37 AM

    this chart is amazing

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  7. AnonymousMarch 02, 2009 12:40 PM

    I think the Maryland paradox will become alot clearer this year - my guess is 2009 will be the year of the MD price drops.

    This isnt just permadoom-speak either. I feel pretty darn certain Arlington will continue to outperform the area. Yet as bullish as I am on Arlington, I also feel pretty darn certain that MD will take a big hit this year.

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  8. AnonymousMarch 02, 2009 1:08 PM

    In 1941 my father tried to buy a house, he was 24 years old. HE HAD THE REQUIRED 50% DOWN PMT Yet, he didn't qualify because the local banker also wanted written permission from his parents! Co-sign. My grandfather said it was a bad idea to borrow (plus Pearl Harbor 40 days later). My father ended up paying 100% cash for our house years later. I grew up in a modest home but dad always had security of owning his home. Look how far our country has come to this.

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  9. AnonymousMarch 02, 2009 3:06 PM

    "In 1941 my father tried to buy a house, he was 24 years old. HE HAD THE REQUIRED 50% DOWN PMT Yet......
    My father ended up paying 100% cash for our house years later."

    I had 30% down last year....now that prices have reduced a little, its more like 40% down. If prices go back to prebubble (though I dont think they will), I will have about 80% or 90% down!!! I wont give a shit about mortgage rates if this happens. I have my fingers crossed, but at the rate things have been dropping, that may not happen.

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  10. AnonymousMarch 02, 2009 3:28 PM

    MD prices have dropped, and they have dropped a lot. I am looking for a house, but prices fall weekly so its a tough decision. Prices got so damn high, that even with the 30-40% haircut that they took, they are still to high. I think MD still has a more to go. Median family salary is something like 80K for MD, not per person, per household. So, the average house should be something like 240k.
    Bob

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  11. AnonymousMarch 02, 2009 7:27 PM

    D@mn man, that looks like a nasty rash! Better get some creme for that ;)

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  12. AnonymousMarch 02, 2009 10:36 PM

    "MD prices have dropped, and they have dropped a lot.....So, the average house should be something like 240k."

    Well Ive had my eye on places in the king farm/ falls grove area...and everything seems to be between $500K and $700K for a townhouse or condo.

    Yeah there are some 700 square feet run down mold damaged homes built in 1945 that are about 240K, but I would rather rent if thats my only option.

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  13. AnonymousMarch 02, 2009 11:36 PM

    MD hasn't dropped yet because sellers and realtors still think the BRAC is bringing tens of thousands of people to the area. The BRAC is just about over and reality hasn't sunken in yet. The Alt-A and option loans are still in the process of resetting too. MD was a bit late to the game. I want to buy in Anne Arundel or Howard counties, but the data suggests the smart move is to wait until the end of the year when reality sets in and people actually start dropping prices for real. The most I've seen are little drops of 10 percent or so. MD peaked later than other markets so it will also fall later between this year and next.

    Just wait a bit longer. A 6 month or year rental lease might be a great idea. Otherwise, you'll be severely underwater later this year if you jump in now. Additional new housing developments are going to apply additional pressure to sales prices.

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  14. AnonymousMarch 02, 2009 11:53 PM

    "Better get some creme for that" You gonna apply it with your tongue?

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  15. AnonymousMarch 03, 2009 8:42 AM

    "Just wait a bit longer. A 6 month or year rental lease might be a great idea."

    Yeah Im already locked in a year lease....but I still dont feel prices are going to drop like they have in california.

    Im scared things will just stay the slow course they are in and it will just take 10-15 years to reach bottom.

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  16. AnonymousMarch 03, 2009 9:31 AM

    Well just to play devil's advocate here, the STABILITY of the federal employment system mean that people have less of a need to maintain a cushion against possible unemployment, and the benefit-rich compensation means that people can spend less on healthcare and retirement and so can spend more on a house. Of course I'd guess that only adds maybe 5-15% to what people can afford.
    -Jim A.

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  17. AnonymousMarch 03, 2009 12:04 PM

    Looks like South Florida isn't doing quite as bad as some other states in terms of income to mortgage ratio. Foreclosures however, are another story. At least prices have fallen considerably.

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  18. AnonymousMarch 03, 2009 12:28 PM

    "Well Ive had my eye on places in the king farm/ falls grove area...and everything seems to be between $500K and $700K for a townhouse or condo."

    I live in King Farm, rent thank god. And King Farm has been crushed. Townhomes that would have sold for the high 800's are now in the 500$. By the way, I wouldn't by anything in King farm. I haved lived there for three years now, and it is becoming a sketchy dump. In between the ghetto trash dropping F-bombs at the playground all night long, and the speeding cars ripping around every car crammed road, you also get tons of breakins. Their is a lot of low income housing in King farm, and it is starting to show. Plus all of the places were built like crap. On my nightly walks I continuallly notice the houses and townhomes just falling apart. Falls grove seems a bit better. Plus, they don't have near as many condos and apartments so they have alot less traffic. King farm is like living in a walmart.

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  19. AnonymousMarch 03, 2009 1:48 PM

    "Townhomes that would have sold for the high 800's are now in the 500$."

    Yeah perhaps you are right. However, when I look at the tax records of a townhouse in KF sold say in 2000, they were going for about $250K. Its amazing how they went from 250 to 800 in a matter of 6 years!

    "I have lived there for three years now.....King farm is like living in a walmart."

    Thanks for the tip! I would think it still beats those little 700 square foot mold damaged 1945 homes right where rockville pike and veers mill meet.

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  20. AnonymousMarch 03, 2009 8:20 PM

    The strength of the federal government job market, the healthcare sector jobs, and the DC metro area job market on a whole keep the prices in the area's closest to DC from dropping hard. The metro accessibility in some of these areas also seems to help prices from freefalling.

    There's also the issue that many communities and condo associations have banded together. Individuals who bought condos at overpriced, $400k levels that cannot now be unloaded are fighting tooth and nail to keep $250k condos being built down the straight - even if the market would dictate as such.

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  21. AnonymousMarch 03, 2009 9:35 PM

    "Thanks for the tip! I would think it still beats those little 700 square foot mold damaged 1945 homes right where rockville pike and veers mill meet."

    Perhaps your right. Every person's requirements are different. I notice alot of people are always in their house, hardly anyone is outside. When my wife and I go for a walk, there is almost never more than 5 other people out. Seems like most people here, go to work, come home, watch tv, go to bed. If that is your style, not knocking at all, this might be a good place. Plus its close to the metro. Take note. I think that redland road is the school divider. So if you buy north of redland, your kids go to gaitherburg. Meaning, teach them spanish and give them a knife. I think the southern half goes to rockville. If you are really interested in a kingfarm type community, I would check kentlands. Its off the metro, but definitely is more active and has better restaurants, stores, etc. In general, it seems much nicer. I think Rockville, might be nicer as time goes on, assuming you can rip down that moldy 40s home and build something new, but, that is alot of work.

    Corona, your statement made me laugh a bit. A homeowners assoc. can't stop a condo project. Condo projects are millions of dollars. Plus, any project you see going was probably planned 5 years ago, meaning, the wheels wont be stopped because someone's condo price is dropping. What you do see happening is many of those condos are going rental, putting even more downward pressure on condo prices. If you bought a condo since 2001, plan on keeping it until 2025 at least. Also, the government jobs and government dependent jobs (contractors and such) only account for 20% of the work force in the DC area, look it up, its true. So, as a Gs15, I will not be saving the housing market. That theory has been said before. Next you will be saying lawyers will prop up the prices, then I will call you Corona-lance.
    Good luck.
    Bob

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