Monday, March 16, 2009

Bernanke's recovery prediction: Journalists report old news

Apparently more journalists watch 60 Minutes than watch Congressional testimony.

Today, the mainstream and financial media has been making a big deal about the fact that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke predicts an economic recovery in 2010. Why is this such a big deal today? It's not like this is something Bernanke hasn't said before. The press might as well report that Jupiter is a planet. That would be equally groundbreaking.

For those who put stock in Bernanke's predictions, keep in mind that a year ago he was predicting a housing recovery in the second half of 2008. He also made housing recovery predictions several times before that as well. How'd that work out?

Also lost in the headlines is that Bernanke's prediction has a very major caveat. He only predicts a recovery in 2010 if the federal government's attempts to stabilize the financial system are successful. That's a pretty big caveat!

17 comments:

  1. What people need to be careful of is that the government is going to redefine "success" every step of the way. They will surely lower the bar for success any chance they get so as to make it look like they are indeed succeeding.

    Idiots like Lance will eat that shit up.

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  2. "He only predicts a recovery in 2010 if the federal government's attempts to stabilize the financial system are successful. "

    He predicts a 2010 economic recovery if the Federal Reserve manages to save the economy by 2010.

    What did he just say?

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  3. "They will surely lower the bar for success any chance they get.....Idiots like Lance will eat that shit up."

    Sorta like the DC metro area now consists of just 3 alphabet streets in the center of downtown DC. "There is no decline in prices in the DC METRO AREA!!!111"

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  4. No no no no, the "DC Metro Area" consists of a bunch of crooked streets on the outskirts of Manassass with names like "Tartan Hills Way" and "Snooty McSnooty Pants Boulevard". Of course, all the McMansions on Snooty McSnooty Pants Blvd. are being subdivided into group homes and dog food is on the menu each and every day. But hey, at least all that is better than "the center of downtown DC", where no one wants to go as evidenced by the packed subway trains leading there, and the super-congested roadways leading there, and all the thriving restaurants, not to mention scarce rental availability despite the high density of rental units in the neighborhood of $3000 for 1000 square feet. Because, really, being on Snooty McSnooty Pants Blvd. is good livin' all 'round.

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  5. Politicians (yes, I think Bernanke is politcian too...) say always nice words like "it will be good, only if it will be good"
    But I understand why journalists used this again, people want the crisis in media, they want to read about it, they want to watch it im TV and they want fresh news every minute (even if "fresh" means "rotten five months ago").
    Take care

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  6. "No no no no, the "DC Metro Area" consists of a bunch of crooked streets on the outskirts of Manassass"

    Ive never seen anyone reference Manassass as DC Metro other than people like you and Lance building stawmen.

    Is Rockville, Wheaton, Silversprin etc DC metro area? How about the cracktowns in PG county? The metro has stations in all of these places, but they are trash and dropping in price. Quit with your crying "manassass" its tiring to read.

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  7. Case-Shiller considers Manassass to be in the DC Metro Area.

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  8. Jupiter is a planet? OMG, stop the pressesand...Buy buy buy! [insert horn sound here]

    I thought Jupiter was the father of the gods who rained down lightning bolts and mezzanine tranches when he was angry.

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  9. "Quit with your crying "manassass" its tiring to read."

    Don't read it.

    Have a nice day in Prince William County. (Foreign born population in PWC = 26%)

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  10. "Don't read it."

    Yeah Manassass and PWC has nothing to do with the Montogmery county cities I listed. But of course you avoid the point I made, cause you are in a losing battle. DC metro blows and all but 3 or 4 alphabet streets have dropped 25% in value and will continue for another 4-5 years.

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  11. " DC metro blows "

    Only when you factor Prince William and Prince Georges counties into the "metro" area. Montgomery county sucks too, just not as hard as Alexandria or those "3-4 alphabet streets" in your nation's capital that make your blood boil. In fact, Montgomery county is home to all the waitresses and busboys who serve me in DC. PW and PG are where my cab drivers and maids live.

    Enjoy your boiling blood. In Prince W county.

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  12. February 2009 YoY stats from mris.com.

    Prince William County:
    Total $ volume sold, +21%
    Average sold price -34%
    Median sold price -36%
    Total units sold +82%
    Days on market -27%

    Why does PWC suck so hard? Even when dollar volume, units sold, and days are market stats are very favorable, prices are DOWN significantly. Why?

    Because PWC is not a good place to live, after all. The demographics and the socio-economics of the county are all on a downward slide.

    Enjoy your commute tonight.

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  13. Because PWC is not a good place to live, after all. The demographics and the socio-economics of the county are all on a downward slide.

    Everywhere in the metro is on the downward slide except for Arlington, Alexandria & DC. These three are the only ones that have reversed several decades of white flight.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/10/AR2005081002032.html

    Suburbia is dead.

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  14. "Montgomery county sucks too, just not as hard as Alexandria or those "3-4 alphabet streets" in your nation's capital that make your blood boil."

    Yo moron, Im a renter. why would I care if you think montgomery county sucks worse than alexandria? I could move to alexandria next week if I wanted. Im not tied down to this over priced garbage heap of a place.

    So I guess the DC metro area consists of Alexandria AND 3 alphabet streets. Shoo, I was thinking DC was pretty tiny for a second there.

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  15. " Im a renter. why would I care if you think "

    Obviously, you are a renter in Prince William County. And obviously, you care about the price of homes.

    Please, stay in PWC for the rest of your life. You belong there.

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  16. "Obviously, you are a renter in Prince William County."

    obviously you are a troll

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  17. "And obviously, you care about the price of homes."

    PURE GENIUS!!! Figuring out that people on a real estate bubble blog care about the prices of houses!! Man you are smart! I bet you are handsome and rich too.

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