Wednesday, October 15, 2008

AP: Oil was just another bubble

From the Associated Press, via MSNBC:
As oil prices zoomed toward an unheard of $147 a barrel this summer, it seemed every analyst prediction that oil would approach $200 was a self-fulfilling prophecy, until suddenly it was not.

Instead of $200 oil, oil is now $80. Instead of going up, U.S. demand has fallen at the steepest rate since the oil-shocked 1970s. Americans have dramatically cut down on driving over the past year.

Soaring prices for oil and other commodities this summer have turned out to be nothing short of another classic bubble, and the bursting may not be over, one analyst said Monday.

"It's just amazing that the market gets suckered into this," said analyst Stephen Schork of the Schork Report, who called the idea of $150 a barrel oil "an obscene number, a perverted, illogical number." ...

"We clearly underestimated the depth and duration of the global financial crisis and its implications on economic growth and commodity demand," analyst Jeffrey Currie said in a report.

David Fyfe, an analyst with the International Energy Agency in Paris, was a bit less critical, avoiding the word "suckered." "To be fair, there is always a tendency in parts of the analyst community to look at short-turn trends and assume it's something that will continue in perpetuity," he said.
As recently as July the price of oil was rising based on strong global economic growth, especially in China and India. Now that the financial crisis is threatening to push the entire world into a recession, global economic weakness is likely a major cause of the drop in oil prices.

Also, $4 per gallon gasoline seems to have been the tipping point that encouraged many Americans to cut back on driving and stop buying SUVs. Americans consume roughly 25% of all the world's oil, despite the fact that we make up only about 5% of the world's population.

Now let's see when the gold bubble bursts.


  1. (similar to Greenspan lowered the rate to 1%, to use house bubble to cover the dotcom bubble.)

    Last year, FED lowered the rate was to blow another commodities bubble to cover the previous housing bubble. (see the dollar index) But the house bubble was too large to be covered by the commodities bubble.
    And now both bubbles bust, no one knows what blow job they can do next.

  2. It looks like the burst is already upon us.