Tuesday, October 28, 2008

S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index down 16.6% year-over-year

Click on the graph to see an enlarged version.

From Standard and Poor's:
Data through August 2008, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, a trend that prevailed throughout the first half of 2008 and has continued into the second half.

The chart above depicts the annual returns of the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. Once again, the indices have set new records, with annual declines of 17.7% and 16.6%, respectively. However, the acceleration in decline was only moderate in August. The July data reported annual declines of 17.5% and 16.3%, respectively.
The Washington, D.C. metropolitan statistical area is down 15.4%, year over year.


  1. DC is now the undisputed leader in terms of holding onto its gains since year 2000. Even with the huge price declines we are seeing now, we are still 94% above 2000 level pricing.

    It also appears unlikely that we will get down to that level ever again. Other cities like LA, San Diego, etc. got far above 2000 prices and are now crashing back towards them. By comparison, our price drops are about 1/2 what they are out there, and the burn rate is so slow, we are unlikely to ever get as far down as they all will.

    None of this is good news mind you. It just means that in a beauty contest where all the contestants are morbidly obese, our muffin top phisique makes us much hotter than all the competition. WERE #1!!!!

  2. The "metro DC" Case-Shiller index is worthless, and any thinking person knows that it is worthless.

  3. If today's Case/Shiller numbers are an indication that we're actually ripping the band-aid off instead of teasing it off one painful millimeter at a time then this is good news.


  4. Well golly, that split-level I bought out in West Virginia in April 2005 surely did crash in value.

    But my city-slicker cousin is all fancy and high-faluten, so he bought real estate in the city of Washington in April 2005.

    It shore is nice to see that them fellers Case and Shiller lump my house together with my cousin's house. I don't feel so bad now.

    My fancy city cousin tells me that it is an "apples to oranges comparison", but fer the life of me, I just don't git what he's sayin'!

  5. Thats actually true Jethro. If you look at high end only (prices above 477K), its down only 10% off last year. Mid end and low end housing are off by much more.

    Not only that, but even in the high end, there is a big difference depending upon where that high end is located. Case shiller admits "high end" far from the city center is doing far worse than "high end" out in the exurbs


    So sleep well Jethro. Im sure your cousin lost a bit since he purchased, but unlike you, he is probably doing just fine!

  6. sorry that should say

    "Case shiller admits "high end" far from the city center is doing far worse than "high end" in the city center areas"

  7. It shore is nice to see that them fellers Case and Shiller lump my house together with my cousin's house. I don't feel so bad now.

    aaaawwwwww....poor widdle bitchy....your's is dropping too, don't you worry none. But keep posting anony sh*t here if it makes you feel better.

  8. "aaaawwwwww....poor widdle bitchy....your's is dropping "

    Now that is a REAL west virginian talking!

    Are you in a Split level? Ranch? Jumbo Colonial? Facing foreclosure? Does it suck to be you by a lot? or by A LOT?

  9. Case Shiller is pure crap. When Bobby Shiller, Karl Case, and I first developed it, it was called the Case Shiller Sizzle index.

    The CSSizz index was heavily focused on arlington. Karl & Bob found my obsession on ARL misplaced so they kicked me out - now its just the CS index.

    Anyway, the CSSizz index is by far more accurate than the CS index when it comes to arlington. The CSSizz says ARLINGTON IS DOWN 40%. Nearly time for me to come down and establish my Arlington fiefdom - to be known as Sizzleton BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

    Got Bacon?

  10. Sizzle Lien...

    If I may, I think calling your fiefdom "Sizzleton" is incorrect. You can tie more into your name with the "ington" part...

    So, may I please suggest you call it SIZZLINGTON???

  11. The home prices in Raleigh are just starting to fall, but the local economy is starting to see a hit for the first time. I would imagine this will cause a drastic fall in prices in the near future.

    Jesse W.

  12. Oh very good Tax Lien...Sizzlington it is! One free home for you when I establish my Arlington fiefdom.

  13. sizzle-lien,

    Purina has your bacon.


  14. Very good Anon - I forgot my got bacon tagline - im nothing without that witty little nugget. I was gonna give you a free house for pointing this out, but then I thought, is this comment a crack at me???? It could be (im quite paranoid you know). Ill graph it and check it out.

    Regardless, no house for you in Sizzlington!!!!

    Got Bacon?

  15. Sizzle-Lien, I'm your friend and mentee, Lien Armstrong.

    I just don't go around dropping my own name when pointing out the bacony goodness all over the world.

    Please accept my sincere apologies for offending your superior sensibilities!

    As a token of my friendship, I'm flying to LA tonight in my personal airplane to drop off a substantial quantity of fresh mid-western bacon.

    Humbly yours,

    Lien Armstrong

  16. from what i see on this blog, it seems this mess is the perfect way to divide the citizens of the US so that they turn on themselves.

    please fight this urge. not one another.

  17. So be it Lien Armstrong - I didnt get your bacon drop as I was "at the gym" getting all huge - preparing for the Arlington Meltdown. However, all is forgiven.

    Watch these blogs carefully as I have an important announcement coming up and will need your loyal service as we prepare for THE ARLINGTON MELTDOWN...SIZZLINGTON WILL BE MINE, BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

    Got Bacon?