Sunday, June 11, 2006

Bubble Sphere Roundup

Last night I went with some friends to the movies and watched 'The Breakup.' One of the characters was a Realtor who was deceptive and thus became a Realtwhore. I was chuckling!

Lots of great posts in the Bubble Sphere this week!

Southern California Bubble found this 'atrocious' real estate posting on Craigslist. Its bad enough they did not know how to spell, but they also put the ad in the 'Apartments for Rent' section of Craigslist. It should be in the 'Real Estate for Sale' section instead.' Its placement in that section violates Craigslist's rules.

Check out Calculated Risk's post about April's 63.4 billion dollar trade deficit.

Housing inventory is exploding in the Phoenix area. The Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking blog has an update on this most bubblicious place. Do I hear 50,000?

The Matrix blog has a noteworthy post about the difference in the rise of imputed rents vs. home prices and how that affects the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Taking a look at the lighter side. Patch Tuesday has a bubblicious cartoon. :-) Housing Panic posts this YouTube music video about Greenspan, Bernanke, inflation and interest rates. Very, very funny!

Please stay tuned for a hard hitting post for tomorrow.

33 comments:

  1. Proposition JoeJune 11, 2006 1:33 PM

    "In fact, numerous articles on national real estate trends indicate the areas of Southern California and Washington, D.C., are now suddenly in the worst shape in all the U.S. as far as overall housing markets are concerned."



    Homes Selling 10% Below Assessed Values


    In my opinion we are on track to see a YOY decline of about 15% to 25% this year and another similar drop next year for the DC/NOVA/MD markets. Many home debtors will be considering arson if they find they must sell. Lenders will be demanding multiple appraisals with prices will be falling so quickly.

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  2. In addition to the arsons there will be divorces from money stress, broken up families, drug and alcohol problems, teen pregnancies, suicides and messy murder-suicides. The smart money is going into crime scene clean up businesses.

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  3. The smart money will be running clandestine arson services and home breakin theft services. The arson service will burn down homes for a percentage for desperate underwater home-debtors. Home theft services would be for people hoping to make insurance claims on plasma TV's, jewelry, SUVs, and other worthless junk they bought with their HELOCs.

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  4. As a wise man once said, why argue about facts. Here is the Arlington County (borders Falls Church) Real Estate Assessment Page:

    http://www.arlingtonva.us/Departments/RealEstate/reassessments/scripts/DREADefault.asp?lnsLinkID=1116

    You can go and put in any neighborhood and see recent sales and assessments on those properties.

    Here are the pages for a few nice neighborhoods in North Arlington:

    http://www.arlingtonva.us/Departments/RealEstate/reassessments/scripts/DREADefault.asp?lnsLinkID=1116

    http://www.arlingtonva.us/Departments/RealEstate/reassessments/scripts/saleslist.asp?Action=View&nbhd=506057&lrsn=33875&backRPC=18073021

    and for one in a less nice neighborhood:

    http://www.arlingtonva.us/Departments/RealEstate/reassessments/scripts/saleslist.asp?Action=View&nbhd=509072&lrsn=40730&backRPC=24008003

    I see no trend of homes selling below assessment, let alone 10% below.

    Have fun!

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  5. I refuse to listen to anyone who doesn't know how to make proper hyperlinks with href tags. The kind of statistics you are throwing out are lagging indicators. The 10% won't appear untils months afterwards.

    All the anons posting about how real estate cannot go down are agents who are doing the classic pump and dump. They don't wont to be left holding the bag on their declining spec houses. Better sell now or be priced in.

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  6. Great. If prices drop 25% and interest rates increase 25% - where does this leave the current renters who want/hope to enter the market?

    I remember when anything under 12% was a "great rate". I am sooo glad I bought my first house 25yrs ago. I was an econ. major and can't recall hearing or thinking about "bubbles".

    Just wanted a house. Simple as that.

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  7. If interest rates went to 25% people wouldn't use longterm mortgage instruments. They would pay cash. Housing prices would fall down through the floor. I kind of like the idea.

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  8. Not to 25% : up 25%. Another sophisticated renter.

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  9. The spring rally has failed to materialize. Home debtors are in for an ass-pounding they will never forget. Many will never recover.

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  10. I'd much pay 25% less for a house (say 375k vs. 500k) with a mortgage rate of 25% more (6.5% to 8.125%, big deal) -- plus you can always refinance mortgage rates but when you buy that home at 500k you're out the 125k difference forever (plus interest, insurance, taxes, etc.).

    a 'sophisticated renter'

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  11. that's much *rather* pay, of course.

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  12. "The spring rally has failed to materialize."


    Show us where you're getting this information. All of these statistics concern closings, not contracts. Statements like this reveal how insecure bubbleheads really are about their gamble on renting.

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  13. "I'd much pay 25% less for a house (say 375k vs. 500k) with a mortgage rate of 25% more (6.5% to 8.125%, big deal) -- plus you can always refinance mortgage rates but when you buy that home at 500k you're out the 125k difference forever (plus interest, insurance, taxes, etc.).

    a 'sophisticated renter'"


    Too bad you're not going to get it. You're going to have to continue to rent like you're 20 years old. Have fun dealing with your landlord coming into your apartment unannounced when you're not home.

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  14. anon. soph. renter;

    Refi at a lower rate? When the cows come home.

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  15. you're 100% right about that, anon 4:40, just stating that it's an option, even if it's not for another 10 years or whatever.

    a.s.r.

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  16. funny how fear breeds such negativity, anon 4:30.
    but thanks for the concern.

    a.s.r.

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  17. "funny how fear breeds such negativity, anon 4:30.
    but thanks for the concern."

    Haha, you mean your own fear and negativity. Have fun in small claims court when your overlord, um, I mean landlord steals your security deposit. Wait, let me guess - yours is the only landlord in the world who doesn't do that.

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  18. The use of the term "lagging indicator" confuses me.

    Poster A linked to an article saying, anecdotely, that completed sales in Falls Church are averaging 10% below assessment.

    Poster B linked to recent data on home sales from Arlington County showing the opposite.

    Seems like apples to apples to me.

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  19. proved my point again, anon 5:03 - good job! really, quality material there.

    back on topic, you all should check out nnjbubble blog for this weeks lowballs - some 50% off lists - firesales already beginning..

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  20. "Too bad you're not going to get it. You're going to have to continue to rent like you're 20 years old. Have fun dealing with your landlord coming into your apartment unannounced when you're not home."

    Or you can buy and be in debt to a bank... So, is it a landlord - from whom you can walk and find another, if they decide to chase you out? Or owe hundreds of thousand to a bank - from whom you cannot walk away unless you pay off your loan?...

    How about someone making a compelling argument for buying on this website whose self-esteemed is not tied up in whether they own or rent?

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  21. "
    Or you can buy and be in debt to a bank... So, is it a landlord - from whom you can walk and find another, if they decide to chase you out? Or owe hundreds of thousand to a bank - from whom you cannot walk away unless you pay off your loan?.."

    The bank can't kick you out unless you don't pay. The landlord can. And he can come into your house when you're not home, and most of them do so regularly. The bank has a mortgage lien on the property. The property belongs to the landlord.

    Sorry, I've had one too many experiences with landlords to be one's bitch ever again.

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  22. "How about someone making a compelling argument for buying on this website whose self-esteemed is not tied up in whether they own or rent?"

    How about somebody make a compelling argument for renting without ... how about somebody make a compelling argument for renting?

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  23. "lien"

    This is a word that renters should look up at dictionary.com

    So many have said "the bank owns the house". No, they have a lien against the value of the house. There is a big difference, and you may want to look into it before uttering falsehoods about this topic again.

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  24. So many have said "the bank owns the house". No, they have a lien against the value of the house. There is a big difference.

    You're absolutely correct. If the bank owned it they would pay the property taxes on it, instead the poor home-debtor gets to pay. Where is bryce so he can tell us how much DC property tax he pays.

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  25. Anyone having problems with their house payments should contact these folks:

    http://smhbn.blogspot.com/2006/05/press-release-firebugs-mcmansion.html

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  26. anon 7:25 that's a good one! wow. ROFL. folks, there you have it another witty & intelligent remark from a housing bull...soon to be extinct. we'll miss you!

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  27. Anonymous said...
    “The bank can't kick you out unless you don't pay. The landlord can……”

    Yep, the trolls are starting to panic. Troll to market trend ratio is starting to be more than just an anomaly.

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  28. How many people have had landlords "steal" their security deposit? I'm guessing pretty much zero in a random sample of non-Bryce commenters.

    Jerkstore

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  29. Spongeworthy! I'm so very under your skin! That's excellent. Thanks for demonstrating the degree to which I'm on your mind on a consistent basis.

    No, that isn't me talking about stolen deposits or anything of the sort. And no, my alter ego isn't "Lance". But again, thanks for having an emotional reaction to me - it tells me a lot about you. :-)

    bryce

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  30. Bryce,
    Despite disagreeing with your analysis, I think you present your points well. Keep up the discussion! Even though I believe there is a massive bubble, I like to hear everyones point of view so I can make the most informed decision possible. Then again, I am not a democrat.
    Bob

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  31. You can tell how desperate these RealTWhores are when they post on housing bubble blogs...probably guilt over talking so many FBs into suicide-financing themselves into places they can't afford.

    FYI -- I'm not a renter. I love owning my own home -- for LESS than the cost of renting it, as it was a few years back. I'd love for my friends to be able to do the same. Consequently, I'm waiting for the market to fall, as it already is.

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  32. I think the last thing I would worry about is a landlord "stealing" my security deposit, compared to being underwater on my house...trapped because I owe far more than what the house is worth.

    Also, if your landlord truly withheld your security deposit for no good reason, there is this place called small claims court where you can sue to get your money back. I had several friends in college who took their slumlord to court because he was a lying bastard about why he wouldn't give the security deposit back. The slumlord's lawyer would be present but never the slumlord, because he was a raging alcoholic who couldn't get out of bed before noon.

    Oh, and by the way, I actually own a house, for those trolls who swore that I was a renter up to this point.

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  33. Ah, yes. The bogeyman landlord. Another piece of bait RE agents use to reel in reluctant home buyers.

    Nice try, RE cheerleaders. But buyers have time and patience and dropping home values on their side right now. And if a landlord throws you out, you can find another rental property. Painful, sure. But not as painful as buying at the market's peak and then seeing your home depreciate in value.

    Now, next thing you guys will be trying to do is scare us into buying a house with talk about a limited land supply or increased government spending in DC...

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