Most specuvestors and flippers who bought housing units in the past year and a half in the bubble markets are in financial trouble. The rents that the vast majority of these flippers are receiving in the bubble markets are significantly less than the sum of their monthly mortgage, taxes, insurance and maintenance costs.
For example, back on August 19, 2005 a flipper from San Diego bought a lovely 2br, 2ba condo located in Arlington County, in Northern Virginia (DC Suburbs). The address is 880 N POLLARD ST # 1025. It was bought for $591,300 on 8/19/2005 by someone from San Diego, CA. It has 1040 sq. feet. In the Craigslist post it states "$485000 - OPEN SUNDAY 1-4: STEAL A Brand New 2 BD/2BA Ballston Condo."
Below information comes from ZipRealty (MLS # AR5530848) : Days on Market: 125
Price Reduced: 03/10/06 -- $520,000 to $515,000
Price Increased: 03/11/06 -- $515,000 to $520,000
Price Reduced: 04/21/06 -- $520,000 to $515,000
Price Reduced: 04/22/06 -- $515,000 to $505,000
Price Reduced: 05/06/06 -- $505,000 to $499,900
Price Reduced: 06/09/06 -- $499,900 to $485,000
Additionally, there are 8 other condo units available for sale in this building that are listed on the MLS. (There may be some not on the MLS).
It was bought for $591,300 and is now being sold for $485,000. If the flipper from San Diego recieves the full asking price they will have lost at least $106,300. Ouch! It was never even rented out as it is "Brand new! Never lived in! " Add in carrying cost losses which are in the tens of thousands of dollars and we have a huge financial loss for this unsuccessful flipper.
'Investors' are a large portion of the housing market especially in the bubble markets. As recent specuvestors and flippers in the bubble markets wake up to their continuing financial losses, many of them will try and sell. Inventory is already exploding, while demand is falling.
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***YAWN***
ReplyDeleteLooks like Eftekhari experienced some sphincter enlargement in the DC condo market.
Don't count on Ziprealty to let you know what a property's true "FIRST" listing price was. Saavy agents know how to cancel a listing and relist at a reduced price, and Ziprealty will think that the reduced price listing is "new". It's a trick agents are using to make their listings look new (days on market is reset to 0 when they play this trick) and everyone knows that you want a listing to show no price reductions and a really small number of days on market.
ReplyDeleteTricks being used right now include adding a 0 in front of the unit number (in case of condos) or adding some letter at the end of the number. Examples: 1000 Main Street #100 becomes 1000 Main Street #0100.
A small semantic quibble-
ReplyDeleteI've read this blog for months, and though the content is excellent, there is pervasive cofusion among the moderator and many posters on the difference between "then" and "than".
"The rents that the majority of these flippers are receiving in the bubble markets are significantly less then the sum of their monthly mortgage, taxes, insurance and maintenance costs."
The correct word for comparing two things is "than"
Sorry for the interuption,you may continue the excellent job you do of discussing the housing market.
Thanks for pointing out the syntax issue.
ReplyDeleteThe ZipRealty Info will be added.
Since we are talking syntax anyway, the "maybe" in the parenthetical after the price reductions should be "may be."
ReplyDeleteSorry for being persnickety.
Keep up the good work.
From the Craigslist post:
ReplyDeleteEverywhere you look, something new is being developed
Yea...Everywhere you look a brand new condo building is being developed and will hit the market in the next 12 months!
Arlington is so unique.. The craigslist mentions some of the great things about Arlington: We've got a Hechts (A Macys store) and a library...woohoo. That makes a condo worth half a million dollars alone!
ReplyDeleteThis guy is really getting pasted, and quickly. If this story is at all indicative of comparable house price movements in the last year, things are collapsing much faster than I expected. I expected a long, slow decline starting in the outer suburbs. This is an inner suburb property (I think- I don't know Arlington) with a severe price drop... well, if it sells.
ReplyDeleteA Redskins fan
This guy was pretty stupid to close on this transaction. He should've walked away from his deposit. He may be an "investor", but clearly not a smart one.
ReplyDeleteThe writing has been on the wall for about a year now.
It certainly is good that a 1000 sq. ft. condo doesn't sell for half a million. When it gets down to 150K and is willing to entertain offers, then maybe I'd take a cautious look.
ReplyDeleteA Redskins fan
Redskins fan,
ReplyDeleteYou won't get it for that price simply because others will pay more.
Bubbleheads need to factor this in. Not everyone will sit on the sidelines past 30% drops. That fact limits the fall.
This place is already 20% under peak prices.
Let's stay objective. This is just one property bought by a naive investor. Arlington prices have posted a 9% gain YOY and average days on market is still small. As much as I want to see the mother of all crashes, it's not here yet.
ReplyDelete"Arlington prices have posted a 9% gain YOY"
ReplyDeleteIn the aggregate, that may be true. But what about condos?
"You won't get it for that price simply because others will pay more."
ReplyDeleteFine. I'm not in the market anyway. I am renting under contract until midway through next year. I'm just saying what it is worth to me personally to take a look. If others will pay more, good luck to them.
"Arlington prices have posted a 9% gain YOY and average days on market is still small."
That 9% gain may be because we are not making house to house comparisons. IF, and I stress IF, this condo's story is more typical of the price movement for a comparable property than the overall data (which do not take into account whether we are comparing comparable properties), then it is very interesting.
A Redskins fan
Ha! I love the dopey bravado!
ReplyDelete"Well I wouldn't pay more than $150k for that place!"
"You won't get a chance because someone else will pay more than $150k."
"Well, I'm not really even in the market for another year and a half. I can't even afford it. I'm just bitching about it because that's what I do. Stop raining on my bitching parade."
Let's see which happens first: that condo lists for $150,000 or Maria Sharapova comes over to cook us breakfast.
ReplyDeleteAdd up carrying costs, realtor fees, and closing costs and this flipper is probably looking at a loss of about $180k. Talk about pain!
ReplyDeleteBeing a long-time resident of that area, I can tell you that two bedroom top floor condos in Ballston were going for about $200k in 2001. I don't think we'll get all the way back down to 2001 prices, but by the time this bubble mess is over we'll be pretty close.
anon 7:04
ReplyDeleteThere's no bravado. This is a housing bubble website, where, of all places, I am giving my assessment of what a property is worth.
I think housing prices in this area are way too expensive. That is why I chose to rent. I am stating the price level at which buying may become desirable for me. Sorry if you don't like it.
A Redskins fan
VA Investor,
ReplyDeleteI agree, prices will not fall too far before someone steps back in.
For example, take that 200K number John Fontain threw out for a 2 bd/2 bath in 2001. This is pretty similar to a few properties I looked at in that time frame. Give that price 5% appreciation YOY and you get 200K becoming 268K in 6 years. I can also accept a general "jump" in housing asset prices due to easier lending of about 20%. So throw on another 60K. That's ~ $330K. I would be willing to buy this property for about $330K. Probably a bit more considering the own vs. rent nontangible benefits.
Anyhow, the point of this exercise is to estimate a floor for prices. As rents creep up, the relative value of this property, and my estimate, would need to be revised upwards.
My $0.02.
Yes, but all you ever say is "Well, I wouldn't pay more than $X for that place."
ReplyDeleteGood for you. But who cares?
And when you're called on it, you then admit that you wouldn't pay anything for it since your stuck in a long-term lease.
So your comment becomes a double Who cares?
Your desireable price levels simply means you will forever be renting since prices will never be as low as you desire.
If you're happy renting forever, then great! But if you're waiting for prices to drop to what you want them to be, then stock up on checks to send to your landlord. Because the only way that prices will drop to your fantasized levels is either an economic depression or a terrorist WMD attack in the nearby area.
"then stock up on checks to send to your landlord."
ReplyDeleteWill do. He doesn't require as many as the mortgage banker.
A Redskins fan
According to this, the median price for an Arlington Condo is down YoY.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nvar.com/market/marketstats/may06/arcc0506.PDF
If you want confirmation that Arlington Condo is going to the deep end. Check out Garfield St condo listings in the Clarendon area, area code 22201. Every flipper that sold within the last 3-4 months lost money after the 9% cut they paid in closing costs and commissions. Not one seller made a dime and most lost money in the transaction.
ReplyDeleteAnd those guys are the lucky ones. This is just the beginning. I think this San Diego guy is a reflection of what is to come this fall.
My two cents,
ReplyDeleteThe early 90's saw prices of condo's drop 40% for some projects.
I am going to use the past cycle as a predictor of this one.
600K less 40%(240K) equals 360K. My guesstimate puts this as the floor. This is FWIW; clearly I have no real idea of what will happen.
I don't know the core econ. differences between the 90's and now. I did see a report that the D.C. area had the greatest job growth in the Country, however.
VA Investor,
ReplyDeleteIt's pretty interesting that 2 disparate valuation models produced similar results. Granted they're both just guesstimates but I expect that as true speculation moves out, prices will revert back to long term growth rates. The market will once again be comprised of owners who simply want to live in a place, and the long term investors who insist on a reasonable/positive cash flow.
My $0.02.
"D.C. area had the greatest job growth in the Country"
ReplyDelete10 % of all jobs in the DC area are real estate related. I am sure a large portion of those new jobs were from that industry as is evidenced by the large increase in the latin population that are now riding with me on the mass transit system!
Bob
at least Lance is trying w/ that housing paradigm shift theory of his.
ReplyDeleteand govt has been running a big fat deficit throughout the housing boom, it can't continue to spend at those levels. look for many of the retirement FTEs over the next couple years to disappear or be put on indefinite hold rather than re-filled, even at lower GS grades.
Depends how you define greatest job growth. Yes, we added the most jobs. But on a percentage growth basis, we're nowhere near the top.
ReplyDeleteAlso, most of the jobs are concentrated in defense and construction. These are not secure for the long-term.
I am willing to bet that the post attributed to "lance" was not really posted by lance.
ReplyDeleteAlso, Bob might want to know that 37% of all statistics are just made up.
I got that number (10%) from cnn which is a very liberal website....So it is probably made...
ReplyDeleteBob
To back up va_investor's comment above, I purchased a condominium in the West Palm Beach area in 1996 for $58,000 (2/2 1240sf, golf view, etc.) from the original owner who paid $68,000 in 1989. He held for 10 years and lost $10K plus his costs of holding the property and the opportunity cost if he had invested the money. I sold 2 years later at basically a wash (I got my $58K back after paying the taxes and fees). Those units were selling for $180 to $200 last year when I moved. I expect they'll drop back in the $120K range within in a year. How would you like to be the proud owner of one of these with a95% LTV interest only mortgage?
ReplyDeleteAccording to this, the median price for an Arlington Condo is down YoY.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nvar.com/market/marketstats/may06/arcc0506.PDF
HAudidoody,
I caught that too. Year over year price declines and a ton of new condos poised to hit the market in Arlington over the next 12 months.
haudidoody said
ReplyDelete"Also, most of the jobs are concentrated in defense and construction. These are not secure for the long-term. "
RIGHT ON! Should these people buy houses?
wvu,
ReplyDeleteYou're absolutely right! No houses for these workers!
7/5 of all people don't understand fractions anyway. Funny how inventories in the entire DC area follow the same pattern. They pour on a couple days one week, and then they just sit for several days. I see why they come on heavy on Wednesday and Thursday to be ready for the weekend, but some weeks, they run way up, and others, they trickle in the same way in Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington, etc. I guess they are all f'ed in unison.
ReplyDeleteNasdaq on verge of 9 day losing steak - place your bets - will it break to the green?
home crap home at Clarendon 1021...
ReplyDeletehttp://washingtondc.craigslist.org//rfs/171475339.html
bought for $551.4k at the peak (Aug-05), now listing for $549k plus $5k closing help WITH a realtor so there's another 3% (at least) off the top.
so big sis bought it and lil sis couldn't handle the payments after the "sale or gift to relative". it's a shame but very indicative of the speculative buying craze in Arlington.
"home crap home at Clarendon 1021..."
ReplyDeleteThe mood in that place must really suck! How do you think the owners will react when they hear about condo fee increases?
Classic case of following the market down. Dumb fuck should have dropped price ahead of market and he might have been able to sell. Funny stuff though. I guess real estate sometimes loses value.
ReplyDeleteva investor
ReplyDelete"You're absolutely right! No houses for these workers!"
I was hoping for an intelligent answer. But this would be a typical smart aleck response that I would expect from you.
The regret must be enormous for this sad & forlorn home-debtor. Buying at the top of a bubble market and riding it down puts you on the fast track towards poverty. Renters don't have regrets, only freedom.
ReplyDeleteSTOP POSTING IN MY NAME! I'VE REPORTED YOU TO DAVID.
ReplyDeleteBacon,
ReplyDeleteYou're absolutely right about the retiring government workers not being replaced by new government workers. They are being replaced by government contractors who don't come with all the strings attached that government workers come with. This has been going on since the Reagan years. Nothing new there other than that the REAL growth in government spending is in the private sector ... in the government contracting area.
wvu,
ReplyDeleteI thought that your inane comment deserved no reasoned response. Sorry to offend you.
va_investor
ReplyDelete"I thought that your inane comment deserved no reasoned response. Sorry to offend you. "
Cool! I should also stick to reasoned responses and avoid insults.
I think that I saw Eftekhari the other day...you will know him when you see him; he is the one walking around with the "O" face. Ohh, Ohh!
ReplyDeleteMarket Psychology Stages: (lifted from John Hussman - he is talking about the stock market, but it applies to real estate too)
ReplyDelete1. "This is my retirement money. I can't afford to be out of the market anymore!"
2. "I don't care about the price, just get me in!!"
3. "It's a healthy correction" - YOU ARE HERE
4. "See, it's already coming back, better buy more before the new highs"
5. "Alright, a retest. Add to the position - buy the dip"
6. "What a great move! Am I a genius or what?"
7. "Uh oh, another selloff. Well, we're probably close to a bottom"
8."New low? What's going on?!!"
9. "Alright, it's too late to sell here, I'll get out on the next rally"
10. "Hey!! It's coming back. Glad that's over!"
11. "Another new low. But how much lower can it go?"
12. "No, really, how much lower can it go?"
13. "Sweet Mother of Joseph! How much lower can it go?!?"
14. "There's no way I'll ever make this back!"
15. "This is my retirement money. I can't afford to be in the market anymore!"
16. "I don't care about the price, just get me out!!"
I look for the bottom of this market about 2012-2014. So get ready to go out and buy come Spring, 2014!
I paid $1900 a month for an equivalent apt. (high floor) brand new in that place when it opened as an apt. building in Feb 02 (2 underground parking spots included). I was kicked out when my lease expired in 04 because they went to corporate rentals ($4000/month) and then turned condo. Why you would ever pay $591k is beyond me.....
ReplyDeletethe Odyssey finally came online...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.arlingtonva.us/Departments/RealEstate/reassessments/scripts/SearchResults.asp?ParcelID=&StrtNum=2001&StrtName=15th&StrtType=ST&StrtDir=N&UnitNum=&Tradename=&EconUnit=
lower floors doing okay but mid on up haven't sold sh*t. they are HUR-TING.
How's this for voracious landlords? We poor renters who suffer so much... From the Boston Globe:
ReplyDeleteRent or own? Don't jump to conclusions
By Christine McConville, Globe Staff | June 15, 2006
Like many longtime renters, Gregg Croteau was fed up with paying someone else's mortgage. He wanted his own place.
But as he started looking at property in Lowell, where he runs a teen empowerment group, he was so stunned by sky-high asking prices that he decided to keep renting and wait for a bargain.
Selling prices, he reasoned, had to come down at some point.
People like Croteau have added to the demand for rental units in the Boston area, where realtors expect rents to rise for the first time in several years. But Croteau's case also illustrates how conflicting forces are pulling down the region's housing market, meaning rents are likely to rise more slowly here than in other parts of the United States.
Late last month the National Association of Realtors reported that across the country, rents will be on the rise, mostly because the slowdown of the for-sale housing market has led to increased competition for rental units.
The association predicts that across the country, renters will be paying, on average, 5 percent more in rent than they did last year. If true, that would be the highest increase since 2000.
Walter Moloney, the association's spokesman, said that nationally, 4.5 percent of apartments are vacant, a sizable drop from last year's vacancy rate of 5.2 percent.
In Greater Boston, he said, competition is even greater, with just 3.9 percent of apartments vacant.
Tom Meagher, the president of Northeast Apartment Advisors, a real estate research firm in Acton, said he agrees with Moloney's statistics.
``Yes, there will be rent growth," he said. ``But it had to happen, because there has been no rent growth in the last few years."
Meagher recently surveyed the owners of several hundred apartment buildings in the region and has determined that there will be a 3 to 4 percent increase in rents throughout metropolitan Boston this year.
Although the Boston area has more competition for apartments, he said, that hasn't translated into heftier rent hikes, because ``we are losing population as a state and have been for the last several years, so there is less demand in the existing rental stock."
Also, he said, there is a significant amount of new rental housing becoming available. After ``underproducing rental housing for years," several significant rental developments are now under construction, he said.
Jutta Donahue owns a rental property in Stoneham, and in recent months she's watched as her landlord-related costs have soared. ``My condo fees have gone up because of fuel costs, and my insurance has gone up, too. Water costs, everything," she said from her Woburn office last week.
She thought about raising the rent, and then she thought about the consequences of doing that.
``Do you raise the rent and risk a possible vacancy or keep the rent low to keep someone in there?"
Donahue decided to absorb the added costs herself because she has a good tenant and wants to keep him. Increasing the rent, she said, would probably force him out.
``Then my place could go empty for a while, but I'd still have to pay the bills," she said.
National experts say that's not likely in most cases, however, since there's a shortage of rental units.
During the not-so-distant housing boom, many property owners in Massachusetts converted two- and three-family homes into condominium buildings, a move that took many rental units off the market.
According to the National Association of Realtors, there are 191,400 fewer apartments in the country as a result of these conversions. With all the condominiums on the market, many longtime renters stopped renting because they were able to take advantage of historically low interest rates and purchased the condominiums as their first homes.
Now there is a glut of condominiums on the market.
Meagher said that this spring there were 16,372 condominiums for sale throughout the state -- an 81 percent increase from the same time last year. Also, he said, 46,000 condominiums are in various development stages.
These days, potential homeowners are carefully monitoring the swollen housing inventory and watching as the cost of borrowing money for a mortgage gets more expensive. Some have decided to wait, adding to the pressure on the rental market.
Croteau has been searching to buy a home for a little more than a year and has noticed two emerging trends. First, homes are on the market longer than they were a year ago.
Some renters have finally decided it's time to make the move to ownership.
``There used to be this feeling that if you didn't grab it, it would be gone in two days," Croteau said.
Now, he said, prices are starting to come down. ``I'm confident that I'm going to get something good sooner rather than later."
Many renters feel that time is on their side.
``There are lots of first-time home buyers who are waiting to purchase, and they are continuing to rent," said Jason Weissman, president of Boston Realtors Advisors.
``Then there are people who have sold their homes and are waiting to buy another but are renting for now. They are waiting to see if prices drop."
Arthur Horiatis, a principal at Tory Row Real Estate in Cambridge, said that ``wait-and see" approach could eventually trigger drops in rents in the suburbs northwest of Boston.
In the long run, he said, ``I think that the rents will stay flat or possibly go down," because when homeowners can't sell their property, they have to choose between lowering their selling price or renting their home, he said.
If the owners opt to rent, rental inventory will increase and prices will drop.
Those who say rents are going up also point to a revived job market after several years of a sluggish economy. That can help offset the loss in population.
Weissman said he's helped many newcomers find apartments in Greater Boston. Most of them are working in mutual fund or fund management jobs.
``People are coming from all over," he said.
Meagher agreed, saying, ``This is the first time that we are seeing any type of job growth in years."
I'm with the Redskins fan. Condos shouldnt cost more than 200k, period unless they're on the becah in San Diego, or in Manhattan. Naive, maybe, but that's what you get when you fall in love with speculative stupidity. Actually, a fair price is whatever that ratio everybody touts, 7-8 times annual salary, which i guess would make 350k about right. But that's for
ReplyDeletea HOUSE, jimmy, not a condo. Who wants ot live on the East Coast anyway.
"The West is the best, get here, we'll do the rest" - Jim Morrison.
Jackson,
ReplyDeleteHmmm you're calculations for determining what a condo "should" cost sound eerily like how the central planners of the former Soviet Union would have determined how to "price" something. The problem was, this articificial pricing didn't do the allocation job that pricing is meant to do. It just mucked everything up to the point where everyone was living in cell-block-like structures 'cause in the end the only person with any decision making ability was some government worker in some back office. The decision making of where people were going to live ... and even HOW people were going to live, was taken away from them. Seriously, how can you think the price "should be" anything other than what it HAS been? In a free market, condos/houses sell at the FAIR market value with the emphasis on FAIR.
Jackson,
ReplyDeleteHmmm you're calculations for determining what a condo "should" cost sound eerily like how the central planners of the former Soviet Union would have determined how to "price" something. The problem was, this articificial pricing didn't do the allocation job that pricing is meant to do. It just mucked everything up to the point where everyone was living in cell-block-like structures 'cause in the end the only person with any decision making ability was some government worker in some back office. The decision making of where people were going to live ... and even HOW people were going to live, was taken away from them. Seriously, how can you think the price "should be" anything other than what it HAS been? In a free market, condos/houses sell at the FAIR market value with the emphasis on FAIR.
Jackson,
ReplyDeleteLance meant to say, "In a free market, condos/houses sell at the FAIR market value with the emphasis on FAIR -- until SPECULATORS move in, their activity fueled by low interest loans, CROOKED appraisals, and the uncritical media CHEERLEADING them on."
Bill said:
ReplyDelete"Lance meant to say, "In a free market, condos/houses sell at the FAIR market value with the emphasis on FAIR -- until SPECULATORS move in, their activity fueled by low interest loans, CROOKED appraisals, and the uncritical media CHEERLEADING them on."
It may surprise you that I actually agree with you ... to a point. I know lots of speculators drove up prices on properties providing no "value added" in the process. I mean, if someone bought a wreck and renovated it, then they have added value and deserve to be rewarded ... But many of these people didn't do that ... And if they are finding that they can't now sell the properties for a profit, I have no sympathy for them. They played with fire and got burned. However, I disagree with you about "crooked appraisals" for sure and am only partially in agreement with you about the media cheering on the price rise frenzy. Appraisals aren't crooked if they reflect what properties are going for ... and in a rising market that (ie, "higher-than-before") is what a properties are going for ... Additionally, appraisals are really only meant to protect the bank ... to avoid the situation where someone walks away from their property and the bank can't sell it to recoup the loan. It really doesn't involve the buyer. If a buyer is looking to buy to live in a place (and not flip it) what does it matter if an appraisal exists or not? The buyer is not looking to turnaround the property right away ... and appraisals are only good for the period in which they are given. Looked at another way, so what if soneone's house appraised at $80K when they bought it in 1996 ... it is not relavant now. The only ones that can be hurt by a wrong appraisal are banks and flippers ... and hurting both of these can only help bring prices down ... not up. As for the media cheering on the frenzie ... I see your point ... But, people are after all adults ... If the media told them to jump over a bridge, should they? But I do see how this probably fueled prices somewhat.
I think you were trying to make an argument there, Lance... Not sure what you're trying to say though - confused by all of the verbage. It makes it appear, at first glance, that you're saying something meaningful.
ReplyDeleteBut wade through the trash and we find - well, more trash.
Get your thoughts in order before posting, please. It's a waste of our time to try to decipher such doublespeak.
You can borrow mine.
ReplyDeleteI would only trust a study done by UPenn. Harvard Sucks.
ReplyDeleteI've noticed that some of the weblinks on this site (i.e. novabubble.blogspot.com -- when you try to go there, you get HIJACKED to a site advertising Lamborginis. What's up with that? A phony site to get bubbleheads to get frustrated? These greedy sellers and/or realtors will stoop to nothing.
ReplyDelete