Friday, June 30, 2006

Its Been Busy, Here are Some Links

It has been busy at work. :-O Here are some links:

The BubbleSphere welcomes Housing Doom Housing Blog. Doom is too strong a term to describe the housing market in the coming years. As I've said before, I am prophet of upcoming housing and economic gloom, but not doom.

BubbleTrack blog has a informative post regarding the Northeastern housing market.

Check out Calculated Risk's GDP: Q1 Personal Savings.

After yesterday's 1/4 point Fed announcement the dollar declined from about 1.2540 to the current price of 127.70 against the euro. I made over $200 yesterday betting on the euro. Sold to soon at 1.2646. Can't compain as I made money.

There will be posts over the July 4th weekend. Material is planned. Happy 4th! :-)

71 comments:

  1. How do you bet on currency? I know how to trade stocks, but I don't know how to do on currency.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I unintentionally "invested" in such...

    Whe I was in Japan, I had to place a security deposit of about 3 times the rent amount... about 300,000 yen. At that time the exchange rate was 145 yen to the dollar, so roughly $2,069.

    When I moved out a few years later, the exchange rate was 105 yen to the dollar. So I got back the entire 300,000 yen and at the new exchange rate, it was worth $2,857, for a tidy profit of $788.

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  3. Oh, Johnny, be very careful with currency speculation. A beginner would do well to open a bank account in foreign currency, if you think the dollar will weaken.

    You can also trade with fantastic leverage if you so choose. If you are wrong, in the short term, you will lose your shirt.

    Google "Forex" for a primer.

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  4. Ah, David, I did the same on the dollar yesterday. Jeeze did I sell too soon @ 1.2625. Oh well, patience is a virtue I still need to build on. Gold is up, $$ is down, life is good for me.

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  5. " Oh, Johnny, be very careful with currency speculation"

    Agreed. It has been a wild ride in the past few months.

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  6. SILENCE APOSTATE!

    All who possess the one true message know that the fiat currency being propped up by the New World Order, the Illuminati, and the Pointer Sisters is headed for collapse after the black helicopters can no longer be fueled due to peak oil. Verily it is thus spake.

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  7. Son-bitch, I'm going to Scotland again in the fall to play golf. Checking the pound; the exchange rate is bad enough now, Helicopter Ben should have raised rates a half point as well as shut down the HELOCS and interest onlys. Let's get the pain over with. All these paper cuts suck.

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  8. You made a few hundred bucks trading currency? Congratulations! My house made me 80K last year. Oh, and thats 80K tax free!

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  9. My oceanfront went up 1.8mil over the last 3 years alone.

    Crash? WHO CARES!!

    Bring it on, baby!

    ReplyDelete
  10. "Anonymous said...
    You made a few hundred bucks trading currency? Congratulations! My house made me 80K last year. Oh, and thats 80K tax free!"

    How long did you have the house before you sold?

    ReplyDelete
  11. The Bass BrothersJuly 01, 2006 1:22 AM

    One of the funniest things you can do is listen to a gold bug bubblehead renter try to explain why the exponential rise in the price of yellow metal is somehow different than housing.

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  12. Anon, can you buy your house back and make another 80K?

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  13. My oceanfront went up 1.8mil over the last 3 years alone.

    Crash? WHO CARES!!

    Bring it on, baby!


    Did you sell it?

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  14. "My oceanfront went up 1.8mil over the last 3 years alone."

    Paper profits don't mean a squat. Just ask all those bubbleheads who were gonna retire early in 2000. You don't have a gain until you cash in. If you haven't sold, then David is ahead of you since he took his profit.

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  15. anon 8:30
    "Paper profits don't mean a squat. Just ask all those bubbleheads who were gonna retire early in 2000. You don't have a gain until you cash in. If you haven't sold, then David is ahead of you since he took his profit."

    One only really "takes their profit" when they have a hard asset. Dollars are not hard assets. The coming inflation will devalue them. Real Estate on the other hand, like gold, holds its value. So, the "paper profits" really are worth a lot more than the "paper currency profits".

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  16. Now let's hear Lance's theory on liquidity....

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  17. With the coming tightening in lending standards and the eventual decrease in home appraisals, tapping that home equity will be impossible.

    Cash is king.

    ReplyDelete
  18. anon said: "With the coming tightening in lending standards ... "

    Do you know something we don't know? What is your authoritative source for the "fact" that lending standards are going to be tightened?

    ReplyDelete
  19. Anonymous said...
    "Now let's hear Lance's theory on liquidity...."

    It's not my theory. It's a well known fact that in inflationary periods there is a flight to hard assets and away from currency. It's common sense too ... By definition, currency loses its value in inflationary times. Hard assets just get priced higher. And real estate (i.e., land) is about as hard as assets get.

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  20. Without selling, how does one get at the equity in their house? HELOC only adds to your mortgage payment, so it does not count. Please explain how one can barter their house in times of economic crisis, or if they lose their job? How will they get at that money?

    These are not rhetorical questions - I seriously want to hear answers...

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  21. "Chris G said...
    My oceanfront went up 1.8mil over the last 3 years alone.

    Crash? WHO CARES!!

    Bring it on, baby!

    Did you sell it?"

    I'm surprised you havn't changed user names yet after all the idiotic comments you've made to humiliate yourself, boy.

    I'll be selling in 30 years or so, just about the time you'll have enough dp to move out of your rental.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Anonymous said...
    "Without selling, how does one get at the equity in their house? HELOC only adds to your mortgage payment, so it does not count. Please explain how one can barter their house in times of economic crisis, or if they lose their job? How will they get at that money?

    These are not rhetorical questions - I seriously want to hear answers..."

    You're asking something that is completed unrelated to my statement that real estate, like gold, is a "hard asset" and one of the best places to protect your wealth from the effects of inflation. The subject at hand is protecting your wealth, not spending it. There are of course numerous ways to tap your equity in a home, but that is unrelated (and counter) to storing wealth in a manner that protects it from inflation. If you don't know how to tap the equity in your house, go see a lender or get creative and rent out your basement or something. However you want to do it ...

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  23. Lance,
    How do you know we'll continue in our inflationary way? How do you know we won't be in deflation, let alone depression. We have a credit bubble feeding the housing bubble. If we go into deflation, forget real estate and forget gold too. Cash will be king. You can't buy a loaf of bread in a supermarket with gold.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Faith-based economics - that's what Lance has. His postings are the "noise" economic thinkers such as Nassim Nicholas Taleb continually warn us about... Look for trends (and the absence of them), and buyer beware.

    ReplyDelete
  25. “Lance said...
    anon 8:30
    "One only really "takes their profit" when they have a hard asset. Dollars are not hard assets…………. Real Estate on the other hand, like gold, holds its value. So, the "paper profits" really are worth a lot more than the "paper currency profits".”

    So, “paper profits” are worth more than currency?

    Let’s deal!
    Give me $500K in US dollars and I’ll give you an IOU for a cool $1 Mil!

    ReplyDelete
  26. So my question was:

    Without selling, how does one get at the equity in their house? HELOC only adds to your mortgage payment, so it does not count. Please explain how one can barter their house in times of economic crisis, or if they lose their job? How will they get at that money?

    and Lance's response was:

    You're asking something that is completed unrelated to my statement...

    So, can you answer the question or not? Explain how non-liquid assets are better than liquid ones.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Robert said:
    "Let’s deal!
    Give me $500K in US dollars and I’ll give you an IOU for a cool $1 Mil!"

    no, you're not understanding again. The exchange would be you give me a house valued at $1 Mil today and I will give you $500K in US dollars. And we'll see who has the better of the deal in 10 yrs ... or even next year, for that matter.
    It's really becoming clear why bubbleheads exist. They get the facts right, but because they don't understand economics, they get the result wrong by 180 degrees. Come on folks, this is a simple one ... in inflationary times, do you rather hold your assets in currency which by definition loses value with every bit of inflation, or do you rather own a bricks and mortar house and the land it sits on? Please think for once rather than just spewing your emotions. This is really a simple one. Even if times of deflation (which is highly unlikely), you still haven't lost anything ... you still have your house.
    If you can't grasp this very simple concept, then you probably shouldn't be homeowners. You would probably find the responsibility involved in maintaining a house baffling!

    ReplyDelete
  28. anon asked: "So, can you answer the question or not? Explain how non-liquid assets are better than liquid ones"

    Again, we weren't talking liquid vs non-liquid. We were talking currency vs. hard asset because we were talking about protecting one's wealth from inflation NOT about spending one's wealth. Look up the terms in a dictionary ... you'll figure it out.

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  29. 'course, I guess the problem is that without any wealth to protect, it is probably hard to even fathom the need for protecting it. You are thinking only in terms of spending and not saving ... Which really does make sense in light of the fact that you are a renter and used to spending vs. saving via equity accumulation ...

    ReplyDelete
  30. a hint in helping you figure out the difference: I am planning on living off my current earnings and not my house equity. If you are talking about how you're going to cash in the equity in your house (if you had one), then you aren't planning to live off your current earnings are you?

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  31. I know I've got you when you have to resort to the 'renters must be poor' insults. :)

    BUT anyways, I feel like what you are saying is that because house is made of hard materials it is better than paper currency regardless of how much paper currency you had to spend (or leverage) to get into that house, as if somehow the fact that you paid $10 million dollars for said house is okay because as soon as it became 'house' instead of dollars, its worth became infinite.

    ReplyDelete
  32. “Lance said...
    no, you're not understanding again. The exchange would be you give me a house valued at $1 Mil today and I will give you $500K in US dollars……”

    Huh? That’s the key, just keep talking, say anything, keep babbling.

    You don’t understand that “paper assets” are worth nothing until sold. With current inventories reaching record levels, they’re a lot of “paper assets” on the market now. Why should I buy a house today at $350K today with 1000+ homes on the market when I can buy it a few months from now for $250K with 2000+ homes on the market?

    Wait a few months and save $100K? I think that’s a good return on investment.

    ReplyDelete
  33. A few things to consider for those who wish to comment on financial issues--you may want to study ancient history; i.e, the period prior to 2001.

    First, for those of you who think gold is a great investment, much like the condo you live in, you had better hope you are wrong. The last time Au reached it's current level was about 26 years ago. And that's in nominal dollars; in real dollars, current levels aren't even close. (http://www.eh.net/hmit/goldprice/)
    Furthermore, physical gold has a negative yield (I won't argue that gold may be useful as an inflation hedge, along with TIPS, and foreign currency or commodity funds). I can only assume that some posters have decided to equate gold and houses via caveman logic "uggh, gold pretty, gold gooood, house pretty, house goood".

    As for your house as an investment, there is an interesting study as to the real (not nominal) return on housing based on the HPI. www.internet2.edu/~shalunov/stock-market/.

    Buying a house as a your residence is a not a bad idea. There is a huge benefit to having a stable living situation, and over time home ownership can beat renting on a total cost basis. The latter depends, however, on not buying a house after drinking the NAR Kool Aid and believing home values always go up, and consequently it is always a good time to buy even if you have to stack a HELOC on an I/O neg am first mortgage to do so, or that your home is a proxy for gold or that buying either withut doing your due diligence is a good idea.

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  34. anon asked:
    "BUT anyways, I feel like what you are saying is that because house is made of hard materials it is better than paper currency regardless of how much paper currency you had to spend (or leverage) to get into that house, as if somehow the fact that you paid $10 million dollars for said house is okay because as soon as it became 'house' instead of dollars, its worth became infinite."

    no, not at all. Again, the question is "What is a better store of value in inflationary times?" And again, the answer is "Not the US currency that David is keeping his profits for forex trading in, but real estate because 'by definition' during inflationary times, currency loses value (e.g., it take $1.50 to buy today what it cost $1.00 to buy yesterday), while real estate --- like all other "hard assets" will simply "inflate" in value along with the cost of living.

    Why do you want to read into what I said much more than what I said?

    ReplyDelete
  35. robert asked:
    "Wait a few months and save $100K? I think that’s a good return on investment."

    Maybe, because you can't get a return on investment on an investment not made? In any case, again, that wasn't the question. The question was what is a better store of value? Currency or real estate?

    "You don’t understand that “paper assets” are worth nothing until sold."

    That's not really true. You could say that currency is worth nothing until "sold/used", but you can't say that your home is worth nothing until sold. You're living in it, aren't you? Isn't that worth something? Currency, on the other hand, is worth absolutely nothing while it is sitting in your pocket or in your bank account. It is only worth something when you go to spend it. And in periods of inflation, it just keeps going down in value as it takes more and more of it to buy things. So, again, what is a better store of value? A house whose value will inflate along with everything else, or money in your pocket and in the bank that will buy less and less as inflation pushes up the prices of everything?

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  36. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  37. Robert also asked:
    "Why should I buy a house today at $350K today with 1000+ homes on the market when I can buy it a few months from now for $250K with 2000+ homes on the market?"

    If you are of the belief that that house will drop in value by $100,000 in a few months, then you most certainly should wait! You'd be a fool to buy now, wouldn't you? But tell me, if it dropped by $50,000 next month, and you learned that another bubblehead was waiting for it to drop by $100,000 before buying it out from under you. Would you buy it next month for $50,000 off ... or wait another month to get it at $100,000 off and risk losing it altogether?

    ReplyDelete
  38. anon said:

    "Buying a house as a your residence is a not a bad idea. There is a huge benefit to having a stable living situation, and over time home ownership can beat renting on a total cost basis. The latter depends, however, on not buying a house after drinking the NAR Kool Aid and believing home values always go up, and consequently it is always a good time to buy even if you have to stack a HELOC on an I/O neg am first mortgage to do so, or that your home is a proxy for gold or that buying either withut doing your due diligence is a good idea."

    Finally, someone with some sense! You are 100% on the money. But wait, you will slammed by the bubbleheads for daring to say (1) "There is a huge benefit to having a stable living situation" and (2) and over time home ownership can beat renting on a total cost basis. This is counter to bubble-logic and buggle-dogma. Additionally, bubble-sense has it that prices are going to drop by at least 50%, so any purchase before that 50% drop in prices occurs is bubble-heresy.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Lance said
    "Even if times of deflation (which is highly unlikely), you still haven't lost anything ... you still have your house."

    Lance you knucklehead, haven't heard of what happened in Japan and their real estate bubble. Their economy has been in the crappers for 15 years. You see Lance, most people buy their real estate with debt and in deflation, debt becomes more burdensome. Why? Well, no pay raises, no easy lending, no easy suckers who'll buy your house. So how are you gonna cash in? You still have to pay the taxes, morgages, maintenance, etc...

    So as you said
    "If you can't grasp this very simple concept, then you probably shouldn't be homeowners. You would probably find the responsibility involved in maintaining a house baffling!"

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  40. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  41. anon said: "Why? Well, no pay raises, no easy lending, no easy suckers who'll buy your house."

    You get qualified on what you are earning now ... not what you think you'll be earning IF you get raises. Once you are in the house, what do you care if lending is not "easy" and ditto for "suckers" buying your house.

    You sound like a flipper ... someone who is not buying a house to live in, but rather buying a house to make money off of. All your reasons are valid if you are buying the house to flip it. None are valid if you are buying it to live in it. And this isn't even addressing the fact that the US isn't Japan ... our economy is more robust than ever ... and worrying about deflation to occur anytime in the near future in the US is like waiting for the sky to fall in Chicken Little.

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  42. large mortgage holderJuly 01, 2006 11:04 PM

    Lance,

    Why do you believe we are entering an inflationary period?

    And what do you mean by "inflation", what percent? The Fed doesn't want more than 2%, but 2.5% isn't much by historical standards.

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  43. "Why do you believe we are entering an inflationary period?"

    I believe we are entering an inflationary period because history is repeating itself. During the Vietnam War era, Johnson delivered his famous "Guns and Butter" speech. This site explains the similarities between that period and now better than I can:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BA7DB7B95-7C58-41FB-AF89-1F65136D670E%7D&siteid=google

    ReplyDelete
  44. Apparently Lance completely missed Anon 6:34's point. The link he posted (which Lance did not bother to read) had the real return of real estate from 1975-2002 at .635%. Ouch.

    What Anon 6:34 was trying to say (I think) is that home ownership has its merits but they are unrelated to finacial returns. When all is said and done, you have to live somewhere - bubbleheads just beleive that at this point in history renting makes the most financial sense. Emotional and intangible issues such as stability, pride of ownership, etc. are quantified differently by each person, and therefore have little place in a financial discussion.

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  45. "I believe we are entering an inflationary period because history is repeating itself. During the Vietnam War era, . . ."

    Yeah well, the Great Depression also happened. You have no basis for arguing for inflation when we already have hyper-inflation via housing.

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  46. anon 9:01

    "Yeah well, the Great Depression also happened. You have no basis for arguing for inflation when we already have hyper-inflation via housing."

    "hyper-inflation via housing"? There has been no hyper-inflation via housing ... if there had that would have been reflected in our inflation rates. And why has there been no hyper-inflation via housing? Because the government correctly calculated inflation based on what it costs someone to buy something ... and thanks to historically low interest rates and highly innovative financing, the montly costs of owning one's home have not risen despite the "paper" increases in home prices. When all is said and done, even at the high prices that homes have been selling for over the last several years, the montly costs are not "hyper-inflated" compared to what one has paid historically, which is why for most of us out there this has been a financially beneficial decision as well as a "pride of ownership" one. Bubbleheads just can't seem to see past the price tag ... It stops them in their tracks and apparently acts as a barrier which stops them cold ... never letting them get to the point to understanding the real monthly costs vs. the "paper" total price of a house.

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  47. “Lance said...
    ………Maybe, because you can't get a return on investment on an investment not made? In any case, again, that wasn't the question. The question was what is a better store of value? Currency or real estate?......"

    Can't get a return on investment on an Investment not made? What, do you have a closet full of tickle me Elmos? Simply buy choosing not to buy is an investment. With your way of thinking, the more debt you have, the more wealth you have.

    “……..You could say that currency is worth nothing until "sold/used", but you can't say that your home is worth nothing until sold. You're living in it, aren't you? Isn't that worth something?.......”

    Yes, it is worth something. But when one says “I have $200K of equity in my home” that $200K is fruitless, worth $0 until sold. My $100K for a down payment for a new home is worth more than $200K in equity. You could borrow against that equity, Yea, OK, "debt is wealth" right?

    In fact, you missed the point earlier.... “no, you're not understanding again. The exchange would be you give me a house valued at $1 Mil today and I will give you $500K in US dollars. And we'll see who has the better of the deal in 10 yrs ... or even next year, for that matter.”
    You’ve got that backwards to make a stand for paper profits. Do you are guarantee that “paper profits” will not lose value? If so, take my IOU and make out like a bandit! I guarantee that my IOU will double in 2 years! Netting you a cool $1 Mil. (yea, right)

    “……So, again, what is a better store of value? A house whose value will inflate along with everything else, or money in your pocket and in the bank that will buy less and less as inflation pushes up the prices of everything?....”

    A better store of value is one with a guaranteed rate of return. The “money in my pocket” is currently getting a guaranteed rate of return of 4.5%. The house is getting a return of, Oh wait, I forgot, here it comes, wait for it, wait for it……..












    “Housing never goes down, they are not making any more land, and buy now or forever be priced out.”

    ReplyDelete
  48. Robert said:

    "The “money in my pocket” is currently getting a guaranteed rate of return of 4.5%."

    If you think Uncle Sam or anyone else is guaranteeing that you'll be able to buy 4.5% more next year with the money in your wallet if you leave it there untouched, then there's really no use trying to explain any of this to you. Even if you took that money out of your pocket and put it in a bank that gave you 4.5% a year for your deposit, there is still no guarantee that a year for now prices on everything (including houses) won't have gone up by more than that. But you think that someone is guaranteeing a 4.5% increase in value for the cash sitting in your pocket ... so why am I trying to explain the concept of inflation to you?

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  49. Faith-based economics, right Lance?...

    Ever heard of treausry bills? money market accounts? Just as cash might lose value in terms of inflation, so will housing become more expensive (and the gains from selling become less).

    It's a question of RISK - not only what you stand to gain, but how much you might lose when things go bad. Securities and T-bills are a great way to hedge against volatility in the medium and short term; housing is not.

    How many times do we have to explain this to YOU?

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  50. dc housing news aka Bill asked:

    "How many times do we have to explain this to YOU?"

    Let's try till you can save up enough to actually buy a house! That should be a long time! Anyways, Robert said "“money in my pocket” ... i.e., not Securities or T-Bill ... We were talking currency ... i.e., cold, (non)-hard, cash. Read before you speak, you'll like less of a fool.

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  51. ……..Lance said...

    “……..If you think Uncle Sam or anyone else is guaranteeing that you'll be able to buy 4.5% more next year with the money in your wallet…….”

    Oh, I see, you don’t pay taxes on your home. How exactly do you pull that off? Care to wager that if/when home values plummet that tax assessment will lag considerably?

    “….. Even if you took that money out of your pocket and put it in a bank that gave you 4.5% a year for your deposit, there is still no guarantee that a year for now prices on everything (including houses) won't have gone up by more than that……”

    There it is, I was waiting for it….”Housing never goes down”

    “…… But you think that someone is guaranteeing a 4.5% increase in value for the cash sitting in your pocket ... so why am I trying to explain the concept of inflation to you?....”

    Yep, no doubt inflation will take it’s toll. But as I take my cash and use it to purchase goods, how do you take your home to the supermarket to purchase bread?


    “………..Let's try till you can save up enough to actually buy a house! That should be a long time! Anyways, Robert said "“money in my pocket” ... i.e., not Securities or T-Bill ... We were talking currency ... i.e., cold, (non)-hard, cash. Read before you speak, you'll like less of a fool……..”

    Let me check my last bank statement…..Yep, 4.5%, as advertised and guaranteed. And that’s REAL money, I can actually hold in my hand, wallow around in it. Why can’t you do the same? Oh yea, you need to find a willing buyer first. How fast is the real estate inventory growing in your area?

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  52. robert asked:"Yep, no doubt inflation will take it’s toll. But as I take my cash and use it to purchase goods, how do you take your home to the supermarket to purchase bread?"

    sorry, but this is a funny question. why would i take my home to the supermarket to purchase bread? i spend my CURRENT earnings at the supermarket not my equity in the house! How do you pay for things at the supermarket? Do you call your landlord and ask for some of that equity you've helped them build up so that you can spend it now? Oh, that's right, you don't get any of that. I guess that is why you are so fixated on where you are going to get your cash ... no rainy day equity for you to cash in on ...

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  53. Robert said:
    "“……..If you think Uncle Sam or anyone else is guaranteeing that you'll be able to buy 4.5% more next year with the money in your wallet…….”

    Oh, I see, you don’t pay taxes on your home."

    Wow, you are REALLY out in left field on this one. What on earth does paying property taxes have to do with the fact that there's no way cash left in one's property is going to magically be worth 4.5% more in a year like Keith had claimed? Me thinks I see why some of you are renters ... for life. Darwinism in action!

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  54. meant to write: "cash left in one's pockets"

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  55. Robert asked:
    "How fast is the real estate inventory growing in your area?"

    It's not. Properties are selling the same week they are listed. I live in gentrifying DC ... not Silver Spring.

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  56. Lance said...
    ……Wow, you are REALLY out in left field on this one. What on earth does paying property taxes have to do with the fact that there's no way cash left in one's property is going to magically be worth 4.5% more in a year…..

    “……If you think Uncle Sam or anyone else is guaranteeing that you'll be able to buy 4.5% more next year with the money in your wallet if you leave it there untouched,…….”

    So now there’s not 4.5% left in property? Further more, Uncle Sam is now giving you a 4.5% cut on your property taxes?

    “….I guess that is why you are so fixated on where you are going to get your cash ... no rainy day equity for you to cash in on ...”

    Ok, how do you acquire “rainy day cash” from your house? Found a buyer already?

    ……sorry, but this is a funny question. why would i take my home to the supermarket to purchase bread? i spend my CURRENT earnings at the supermarket not my equity in the house!....

    My point exactly. You couldn’t even if you wanted to. You can not liquidate without a willing buyer. Your paper “gains” are worth $0 until you sell. My “cold, (non)-hard, cash” is giving me a GARENTEED rate of return. I do not have to count on a willing buyer.

    “……..Do you call your landlord and ask for some of that equity you've helped them build up so that you can spend it now? Oh, that's right, you don't get any of that……..”

    Oh contraire, I receive approximately $1K in “equity” guaranteed every month by paying rent, not buying.

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  57. “If you are of the belief that that house will drop in value by $100,000 in a few months, then you most certainly should wait! You'd be a fool to buy now, wouldn't you?........”

    Exactly. But It’s not a “belief”, it’s happening now. I currently have my eyes on a home that has dropped $50K in less than six months.

    “……..But tell me, if it dropped by $50,000 next month, and you learned that another bubblehead was waiting for it to drop by $100,000 before buying it out from under you. Would you buy it next month for $50,000 off ... or wait another month to get it at $100,000 off and risk losing it altogether?”

    What have I lost? I’ve got HUNDEREDS (some folks thousands) of other homes to choose from.

    What? Are bidding wars still going on? No, I don’t think so. There is absolutely no need to get into a bidding war with the inventory at the current level. Actually, I’m looking forward to having a counter bid. I can only imagine the look on my realtors face when I tell them to contact the other bidder and tell them what we are going to offer $150K less than asking. What do I care if I get this house? I'll just look a few blocks over to another one on the market. Hell, by the time it all plays out, the one next door will be asking $150K less from the get go.

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  58. Robert said:
    "I can only imagine the look on my realtors face when I tell them to contact the other bidder and tell them what we are going to offer $150K less than asking. What do I care if I get this house? I'll just look a few blocks over to another one on the market. Hell, by the time it all plays out, the one next door will be asking $150K less from the get go."

    Ah, dreams are important, aren't they? They make daily realities easier to struggle through. Btw, it's "au contraire" and not "oh contraire" ... at least that's how we spell it in the real world. Enjoy your dreams my friend.

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  59. "I can only imagine the look on my realtors face when I tell them to contact the other bidder and tell them what we are going to offer $150K less than asking."

    Yeah, I can only imagine too. He'll be thinking "I'm wasting my time with this loser!"

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  60. Large mortgage holderJuly 03, 2006 10:06 AM

    Lance,

    Thanks for the link. I will need to do some research before I comment.

    By the way, I also checked out anon 6:34's link. I'm not sure how useful it is. It's a comparison of prices, not return on investment.

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  61. large mortgage holder said:
    "By the way, I also checked out anon 6:34's link. I'm not sure how useful it is. It's a comparison of prices, not return on investment."

    Yes, I noticed that too. The bubbleheads have a real hard time thinking in business terminology ... and consequently acting with good business sense. I sometimes feel like trying to have a discussion with them about real estate or any other matter is like trying to discuss something with someone who doesn't speak your language. Keith is a great example of someone way out in left field. He dissects anything you say, re-arranges it in haphazard fashion, and then responds in a fashion that has absolutely nothing to do with what the original matter at hand was!

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  62. Lance the real estate agent and his faith-based economics! Always good for a laugh. Thanks. Thanks for contributing to this board - I don't feel so dumb after reading your posts. Thanks for being the "greater fool."

    I'm sure you have this effect on a lot of readers here. Maybe you would do more good for society by spending time in old folks' homes or an intensive care unit, cheering up the sick and old with your pseudo-economic babble. Laughter is a great medicine (but no good for sensical real estate advice).

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  63. dc housing, if you have to resort to labelling someone as a real estate agent when you've been told over and over and over that they are not, then you just continue to hurt your credibiltiy. And no amount of name changing ... Bill to DC Bubble Meter to DC Housing is going to help you regain that lost credibility.

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  64. “……Ah, dreams are important, aren't they? They make daily realities easier to struggle through. Btw, it's "au contraire" and not "oh contraire" ... at least that's how we spell it in the real world.”

    Easier to struggle trough? No, no struggling here. I’ve got assets that can be liquidated at a moments notice. Have you found a buyer yet? Not dreaming here, the house I have been looking at as been reduced by $50K in less than six months.

    Ah, the tried and true “Spelling by Lance”. Great argument. Were you on the debate team in High School? Give yourself a gold star!


    “…….Enjoy your dreams my friend….”

    Enjoy your overpriced dump, dumb ass.

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  65. I may change my name, but I'm no admitted real estate agent - like you, and for some strange reason you keep denying this! You've admitted it elsewhere. It helps readers understand where you're coming from in your arguments, that's all. People have a right to know.

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  66. “Anonymous said...
    Yeah, I can only imagine too. He'll be thinking "I'm wasting my time with this loser!"

    Woe unto me, I have offended thine real estate gods! Have mercy on me oh mighty realtor. Least I offend the, where will I find another realtor! Thou hast the key to thine locked box yonder. Who will open the lock box for me whilst I wither at the door?

    Humm, about 300 other realtors waiting in line looking for a commission. And if I piss off the other 300? I have an attorney on standby that will file all the necessary paperwork for about $200. Whoe is me……

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  67. “Lance said...
    The bubbleheads have a real hard time thinking in business terminology ...


    Lance has a hard time with reality.

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  68. Lance has a hard time selling real estate these days. Thus, his long-winded contributions on this blog...

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  69. Lance doesn't sell real estate. Like other smart people, Lance has dug in for inflationary times with a low interest mortgage. Which of course never having lived through inflationary times, most bubbleheads won't understand the value of doing until it is too late and they are no longer available.

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  70. “Lance said...
    Lance doesn't sell real estate. Like other smart people, Lance has dug in for inflationary times with a low interest mortgage. Which of course never having lived through inflationary times, most bubbleheads won't understand the value of doing until it is too late and they are no longer available.”

    Digging in? Sounds like you bought at the top. Is that your idea of digging in? Buy?
    What’s no longer available? Homes on the market? Dude you’re delusional. Low interest rate mortgages not available? Rates can and will change, you paid top dollar for your place, that can’t be changed. Good luck with your whale. Sounds like you’re one of the poor saps holding the bag.

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  71. Lance bought within the past two years - mentioned in a month or two ago, in an earlier post. Must be what he means.

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