The bubbleheads were ignored last year. It seems that what she is really upset about is the attack on real estate commissions.First, the blow below the belt.
On Tuesday, June 20, 2006, dozens of newspapers across the nation published the so-called report, "How The Real Estate Cartel Harms Consumers and How Consumers Can Protect Themselves," by the executive director of the Consumer Federation of America.
Then the uppercut, published the same day in the New York Times by a Brookings Institution senior fellow. "Commission Accomplished" is also a diatribe that criticizes the real estate industry and its commissions. Both reports are unabashed, unsubstantiated opinion pieces, and what's strange is that they both appeared on exactly the same day. Why?
Dozens of news services gleefully joined in the tarring and feathering of the real estate industry by reporting the CFA opinion piece as news when it should have been placed in the editorial section along with the Brookings Institution fellow's piece.
News organizations reported that the consumer group called the real estate industry a "cartel." Not one paper questioned why neither the CFA report or the Brookings Institute editorial had any quotes, facts, or anything other than the opinion of the authors. The real estate industry's side of the commission question was all but ignored by virtually every newspaper.
What we have is two venerable research institutions slamming real estate commissions on exactly the same day using the biggest name newspapers in the country.She claims it was a planned attack. Blance Evan then goes on to declare war on the media that published the CFA (pdf)
What really ought to happen here is two things:
- Every Realtor in America should jerk their housing ads to any newspaper that published the Brookings or the CFA "editorials." We should have a advertising holiday where not one agent puts an ad in the newspaper out of protest. Then, we can see if not having newspaper ads really hurt sales, which my guess is, it won't.
- Forward this story to every Realtor in America so they'll stop putting money in the enemy's war chest. Every dime you give to newspapers is a dime that will be used to put you out of business. Stop supporting any company that wants to put you out of business!
If money talks for donors, it should sure as hell talk for advertisers.
Wow! She is pretty desperate. The housing industrial complex is scared. Many in the housing industrial complex have made significant money during the unsustainable boom years. Now, as the housing market is declining many feel threatened and a few are lashing back. Watch out it will be a rough ride.
Posts
Some time back I read about a survey
ReplyDeletein which Americans believed that the
"Car Sales Person" was the most
dishonest job in America.
I think in a few years it will be
the real estate agent job.
I thought it was "interesting" that she alleged a plot among the bankers, the media, all working together.... She left it to the reader to fill in the blanks. Classy.
ReplyDeleteTribute to Blanche (Hurly Girl)
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/qvmbn
http://smhbn.blogspot.com/2006/06/another-sick-attack-on-real-estate.html
I don't think. I think it is instead that he may just need some time to come up with a response to all he has heard and read over the past couple days. Unlike the Bill's of this world, David's responses aren't emotional rantings but well thought out ... and what he is hearing isn't jiving with what he thought he knew to be gospel bubble truth.
ReplyDelete"Every Realtor in America should jerk their housing ads to any newspaper that published the Brookings or the CFA "editorials." We should have a advertising holiday where not one agent puts an ad in the newspaper out of protest."
ReplyDeleteAh, another example of Realtors willing to put their interests ahead of their clients. Not advertising their clients' homes for sale, thereby screwing home sellers, to protect their interests - now thats professionalism at its best!
Whew. What a load, it was truly difficult to finish that article. itulip.com founder Eric Janszen interviewed Ms. Evans back in May, and I emailed him that article and he kindly replied. I will post that exchange on my blog shortly. He has an interesting take on it that I had not thought of, and dug a bit for me and provided some contradictory links. I think you guys will really like it.
ReplyDeleteJohn-
ReplyDeleteExcellent point. That is a thought I wish I would have included when I sent feedback, probably the most important one of all.
What an imbecile she is. She faults the NY Times for printing an opinion piece, instead of news. Her complaint would have meaning, if the story wasn't clearly labeled as an EDITORIAL.
ReplyDeleteThen she claims all the newspapers "published" the CFA's report without getting the Realtor's side of the story. I don't know about other papers, but here's a link to the Washington Post's story. Realtor Association mouthpieces are quoted in the story more than the CFA is.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/19/AR2006061900935.html
If realtors can't even withstand this sort of evenly-reported scrutiny without going apoplectic, just wait until newspapers report the outcome of the Justice Department's resolution of the Antitrust action against NAR.
LOL. If I understand correctly, she is upset that someone accused her profession of acting like a cartel, so her response is to propose taking a day to... act like a cartel.
ReplyDeleteA Redskins fan
"
ReplyDelete7) Statements that clearly are false will be deleted. [China has less land mass then Singapore. Or everyone in China is wealthy.]"
What about statements that seem false to an imbecile? Like, "there are a lot of lawyers in Washington, DC."
pismobear said...
ReplyDeleteMy how times have changed!
High Five!!!! let'em sweat!!
Just because I am a shriveled up little brown man living in a converted Holiday Inn Express in Saliva Spring Towers
ReplyDeletehttp://www.southernmanagement.com/communities/index.cfm?id=SS&b=s
doesn't mean that I am not just as smart as anyone else about macreconomic and real estate trends. I am. I AM DAMMIT! It's my blog and I can be anyone I want and delete any post I want.
David - looks like some of the posters who don't like the reality of the bursting bubble have taken to "clogging" your blog with nonsense in an attempt to avoid any meaningful, substantive discussion of the real issues. They clog then the complain when they get deleted (which is just more cloggging).
ReplyDeleteDelete away! You don't owe them a thing.
Maybe you can add a "clog counter" that can serve as an indicator of nervousness of the permabulls.
Keep up the good work. You are doing a great service educating many people about the reality of whats to come.
I am wondering if you can move all of the deleted posts to a different blog that way there is a record of what is getting deleted so if they complain they can go to that other blog and see their offensive and/or childish "comments" for what they are without them polluting the main blog's comment thread.
ReplyDeleteDavid:
ReplyDeleteJust to cut through the clutter, love the blog. Let me 2nd Marinite's suggestion that deleted entries be placed into their own blog. :)
Now to actually discuss the story:
Its interesting that realtors are upset at the news... This reminds me of the old quote "all wars are based on economics." The realtors *need* postitive press for sales. (Or perhaps its don't need "unfounded negative press..." don't flame, work with me...)
Well... isn't the fact that a little newspaper coverage proof that we're in a bubble? Look at the dot coms and how they moved on every press release.
If fundamentals are strong... any buyer who skips June will just buy in July. Its only if fundamentals are weak that it matters... (A potential June buyer becomes a... non-buyer.)
Hbb has a good point, like it or not, *if* the bubble pops, realtors will take a lot of heat for pumping the market.
Personally, I'm betting on a price drop. If I'm wrong? I'll move to where I feel homes are affordable. No emotion... its pure economics. But I'm willing to pay $250k more to stay near family. (Intangibles must be quantified, in my opinion.)
I'm out of the market for 12 months anyway, so its academic at this point.
Neil
Like the west nile virus of last year, this is the new media scare of spring/summer 2006: the bursting bubble. Something will come along to replace it. The media was salivating at the thought of the avian flu hitting and it looks like that won't happen.
ReplyDelete-joe06
great, so they they pull ads, which means papers will succomb to the scare tactic and stop printing bubble talk... Bc after all, newspapers are primarily BUSINESSES, and secondarily media agencies... and the cartel manages to proliferate a bubble that isnt good for anyone (except them) SCARY .... my only additional thought is that most realtors wont pull ads, and I hope hope hope the media keeps printing bubble news. Hell, they supported the rise, now they can report the declines.. That would be putting news first.
ReplyDeleteI will have to move to BFE to afford a home I would actually want to live in
John Fontain said...
ReplyDelete"David - looks like some of the posters who don't like the reality of the bursting bubble have taken to "clogging" your blog with nonsense in an attempt to avoid any meaningful, substantive discussion of the real issues. They clog then the complain when they get deleted (which is just more cloggging)."
John, First WHAT bubble is bursting? Don't you read the papers? Today's Wash Post had a headline story on how the developing parts of the District are doing double-digit appreciation and the other parts (upper NW) are still doing something like 7 - 8 % appreciation. These are the CURRENT figures. Also building permits for the year are being issued at a rate where this will be the year with the most building permits issued by far! Do you have you head in the sand or something, man? And as for clogging. I would say that just repeating a mantra that has yet to prove itself in even the smallest way is doing the very clogging you are referring too. Tell us something new ... like that the District is still experiencing double digit appreciation. Don't just repeat your mantra as if saying it enough times will suddenly make it true.
And to whoever posted in my name again ... VERY funny.
What bubble? Doubtfull the "district" has "double digit" appreciation since those are NOT current figures. The lags show it flat.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
ReplyDelete"What bubble? Doubtfull the "district" has "double digit" appreciation since those are NOT current figures. The lags show it flat."
read the story yourself:
www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/27/AR2006062701480.html
From the Wash Post article:
ReplyDelete"People who are talking about a market cooling are focused on particular neighborhoods -- they're not seeing the big picture," said Peter Tatian, a senior research associate at the Urban Institute, a nonpartisan think tank, who analyzed home sales and new construction in neighborhoods throughout the city. "We see some signs of that in certain neighborhoods, like Ward 3. But in lots of parts of the city, we're still seeing strong price increases of 18, 19 percent."
more from the Wash Post article:
ReplyDelete"And the pace of new construction this year is unabated. In the first three months of this year, the city issued 1,327 building permits, up 135 percent over the same period last year."
more from the Wash Post article:
ReplyDelete"Nearly all the homes under construction this year and last have been condominiums or apartments, as opposed to single-family housing."
And despite what Taitan comments in the article, this is a GOOD thing. Having more condos in the District will lower the average and median selling prices of homes in DC because there will be more condos available in the housing mix, and condos are relatively cheaper than single family houses ... especially in urban environments where land is so expensive. This is "the market" doing its thing and doing it right. The only way we're going to get all the people who want to live in the District, into the District is to build more condos and apartment houses. In many cities (for example NYC), families really do live in condos/apartments. One doesn't always have the luxury of their own yard in an urban environment. That's why we have parks in the city.
I have a question... So is it like "which side will the government choose?"... Will it honor the owners of RE or people who thought it was crazy? Would they keep the money flowing so the RE owners can stay put yet lowering the dollar (inflation?) of the unspent money of people who didn't get in the action... I have no idea how things work. They really have a choice on this matter don't they??Enlighten me please.
ReplyDeleteI'm skeptical about what that Tatian guy says. I'd like to know which neighborhoods, how many homes, etc.
ReplyDeleteInventory is way up across the DC metro area, (45,000+ homes for sale in May while only 9000+ sold), so I find it difficult to believe that many neighborhoods are seeing 18-20% sales price increases. Even if there are a few, I doubt they are typical.
Now if he means ASKING price increases, there is no limit to the fantasies housing bulls have, so maybe he is right.
A Redskins fan
Lance-
ReplyDeleteI just went and looked at the WaPo article, and went to the article you cited. If it is the Summer 2006 issue (and I think it is), THE MOST RECENT DATA ARE FROM 2005.
Repeat- even if Tatian is correct, he is talking about 2005.
A Redskins fan
anon said:
ReplyDelete"Repeat- even if Tatian is correct, he is talking about 2005."
Again:
""And the pace of new construction THIS YEAR is unabated. In the first three months of this year, the city issued 1,327 building permits, up 135 percent over the same period last year." "
Also, yesterday I noticed there was a link from the article (on a side bar) to some District agency that tracks these matters and plans for growth. The answer to your question is probably in there. I doubt if it would be strictly for 2005 (i.e., not incorporationg any 2006 data), but even if it was ... what would that matter. According to those believing the bubble will occur in ALL highpriced markets throughout the US, the bubble started bursting LAST year ... over 12 months ago. IF that were the case, then neither prices nor buidling permits could have been "up" for the year now could they? (And the article specifically says THIS year regarding building permits AND quotes 2005, 2004, 2004, etc. building permit numbers.) No, there's no bubble in the Distirct at least. Maybe Dayton, Ohio or Frederick, MD .... but not the District of Columbia.
Redskins fan -
ReplyDeleteyou will say anything to keep deluding yourself that there is a "bursting bubble." maybe if you spent more time working and less time trolling on the internet, you'd have money for a decent place.
lance-
ReplyDeleteI was refering to the Tatian comments about mysterious prices in some neighborhoods somewhere being higher. The article uses data only up through 2005.
On permits, I don't doubt construction is higher; that is bearish for prices.
A Redskins fan
Redskins fan said:
ReplyDelete"I was refering to the Tatian comments about mysterious prices in some neighborhoods somewhere being higher. The article uses data only up through 2005."
I'm not sure why you think these neighborhoods are mysterious. The article specifically says "east of the Anacostia River" and "east of 16th St. NW". You may not live in DC and may have a hard time figuring out where this is geographically, but if you pull up a map, it should be pretty clear to you then where they are talking about.
I find it difficult to believe prices have risen almost 20% in those neighborhoods in the last six months. And anyway, I think Tatian was talking about 2005.
ReplyDeleteA Redskins fan
A Redskins fan:
ReplyDelete"I find it difficult to believe prices have risen almost 20% in those neighborhoods in the last six months. And anyway, I think Tatian was talking about 2005."
I'm not east of 16th but west of it, however I have been witnessing houses sell for astronomical amounts here in the last year. One 2 doors down from me sold last in May for some 45% more than I paid for mine in early 2005. (They have similar square footage.) Another one just around the corner sold last November for 22% more than mine. And this one was smaller than mine. And these aren't anomolies. The realtors like to send out postcards showing homes they've sold in the neighborhood, and from what I can see on these postcards, prices are definitely going up and not down. The District has so changed in the last 5 years that I can see why this is happening. 5 years ago, I would not have wanted to buy where I bought last year. Now, I can't imagine ever not having wanted to buy here.
Lance,
ReplyDeleteGlad to see they're flooding Washington DC with even MORE inventory! That will just lower prices further as demand shrinks and supply increases.
You know the bulls are grasping for arguments when they quote an article that says "everthing is slowing but the most undesirable areas" and they base their entire argument for the entire market on that remaining smidgeon of growth.
ReplyDeletePlease consider - even as the waning popularity of cabbage patch dolls became obvious to most, there were still some people buying them up for their "resale value." Somebody has to be the last to get the memo, right? We now know who that is.
"That will just lower prices further as demand shrinks and supply increases."
ReplyDeleteIt's more than just the classic supply and demand. As Nathan Bloggs pointed out in another post, developers had to pay a premium on the land. It becomes "How low can they go" situation. How long can they can they keep prices up and afford invetory cost? It will be very interesting to track the prices over the course of several years. Personally I expect price declines but not anything major. Bankrupt developers is a possibility.
wvu_84 said...
ReplyDelete""That will just lower prices further as demand shrinks and supply increases."
It's more than just the classic supply and demand. As Nathan Bloggs pointed out in another post, developers had to pay a premium on the land. It becomes "How low can they go" situation. How long can they can they keep prices up and afford invetory cost? It will be very interesting to track the prices over the course of several years. Personally I expect price declines but not anything major. Bankrupt developers is a possibility."
Your lack of understanding of economics is laughable. So, why do you think they had to pay a lot for the land? 'cause it's going DOWN in value? No, genius, it's cause like everything else related to real property it is going up! You just don't get it that the District of Columbia is experiencing a boom unlike any it has ever seen, do you? Are you holed up in some place like Silver Spring and you just don't get out to the city? If you can't see what is happening here then you are blind. Ditto if you don't see all the wealth pooring into this area and thus driving prices sky high. Good luck waiting for the prices to collapse. I hope you have a very long term lease on your home, you'll need it 'cause rents are what are starting to rise now. You think the rise in selling prices was something? Just wait till the rise in rents kicks in. Everyone I've been talking to says renters are desparate. It's 20 - 40 renters for each "for rent" ad placed in Craigslist. Rents are gonna go up up up! I hope you own a waterproof tent? ... and a little piece of land to put it on.
Lance
ReplyDelete"Your lack of understanding of economics is laughable"
That's because I was an EE major. I took 2 econ classes at WVU, all I remember is one instructor went to University of Pittsburgh (our rival) and the other instructor looked liked Nick Nolte.
"So, why do you think they had to pay a lot for the land? "
DUH! You don't have to be an ECON major to know why.
"Good luck waiting for the prices to collapse. "
I never said I was expecting a major price collaspe.
"It's 20 - 40 renters for each "for rent" ad placed in Craigslist."
I'm not too worried. All the apartments in Silver Springs are advertising. In my complex I see alot of empty units.
"I hope you own a waterproof tent?"
I don't see the need for a tent anytime soon.
If you have ever wondered why so many people have insulted you, take a look at your postings. If you still can't figure out why. Print some of your postings and take them to a therapist.
I have a lot of trouble believing that there are 20-40 renters for each available unit. That sounds to me like pure baloney.
ReplyDeleteA Redskins fan
dc housing news/ bill said:
ReplyDelete"What goes up, always comes down."
That is so very far from the truth! If your statement were correct, then no one should ever buy a house until they are selling again for $30,000 or $40,000 like a great many did back in the early 70s. Also, the DOW would be down to something like 200 ... "what goes up only goes up further ... except for locked in mortgage payments" would be a more accurate saying.
And as for the "real estate agent" accusation. Don't you see how you're hurting your own credibility in making these kinds of baseless accusations?
DC Housing News said...
ReplyDelete"Again, you deny being a real estate agent! I'm simply stating what you've stated before on this and other blogs."
I have never said I was a real estate agent ... I am not. If you had been following, you'd know I said I was in the IT field. Why do you insist on lying?
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteBill aka DC Housing News said:
ReplyDelete"a meager 0.4% rise, nationwide, on average of housing prices over inflation the past 100 years."
You don't really believe this, do you? Even if this low percentage were true, which it isn't, can you understand the concept that a price of an "average house" has nothing to do with the appreciation on "your house" since what is "average" shifts over time? Going back 100 years ago, the "average" house in this metro area was a house being built in maybe in Kalorama or Adams Morgan (today's names for these locales). An average house being built today is somewhere in Frederick MD or Frederickburg VA. So, if you are talking about price appreciation of average houses over 100 years, you also have to note that in 100 years this "average" house has moved some 50 miles from the epicenter of the city. By contrast, the value of the house you bought in Kalorama or Adams Morgan has skyrocketed over those same 100 years. Do you see the distinction? Also, average house appreciation rates are more along the line of 5% per year (plus inflation) over the long haul from everything I've ever read. I don't know where you are pulling 0.4% from ... that isn't credible. Many of your statements seem to be pulled either from the air, or worse yet, from the bodily part you sit on.
BTW, Bill, why are you using a new user name? Did David ban you from this site because you are continuing to use his blog's name as part of yours?