1/2/06: 26,715
2/10/06: 34,608
4/20/06: 43,054
6/24/06: 50,440
Many in the bubblesphere have been watching as the number of active listings has exploded in the Phoenix area. The amount of inventory has nearly double since the beggining of the year.
The housing market in the Phoenix area is about to enter the meltdown mode as inventory continues to skyrocket. A t the very same time, the number of sales per months has fallen compared to last year at this time. The Dallas Morning News had this to report:
In the Valley, where used-home sales are down 34 percent from last year's record pace and below 2004's more normal pace, the slowing is likely to be more acute.Meanwhile, a large amount of new housing units continue to be built. Furthermore, the Phoenix economy is unusually dependent on the housing industry. It is a sad situation that the intense speculation of the past few years has inevitably brought the upcoming housing meltdown.
The median price of a used home in Pinal County fell to $211,500 in this year's first quarter. That's down from the $220,000 the typical existing home was selling for at the end of 2005.
Posts
Phoenix is still 6 months away from serious price declines.
ReplyDeleteAt least 6 months. Reminds me of a trotline. When the fisherman goes and checks it all the fish are lined up, tired out, and ready for the end. It will get ugly with forclosures in AZ before you see any significant drops in price.
ReplyDeleteAgreed. The psychology of this bubble will mean that it takes a little longer to see price declines. People have been falsely told 'home values never decline,' so the thought of lowering the price on their home will make no sense...at first.
ReplyDeleteBill,
ReplyDeleteI will delete every one of your posts that refer to your blog. You DO NOT have the right to copy my blog name 'Bubble Meter' and start you own with the exaxt same name.
Lots of hype and hyperbole in the post: "meltdown mode", "housing meltdown", etc.
ReplyDeleteNot much substance. Instead of cherry picking two paragraphs from the Dallas Morning News, how about a more detailed chart on a ZIP code-by ZIP code comparison of inventory, sales, prices, etc. That would be a much more subtantive way of trying to prove that the Phoenix meltdown abyss is right around the corner.
"how about a more detailed chart on a ZIP code-by ZIP code comparison of inventory, sales, prices, etc."
ReplyDeleteWhy dont you do it and then
give us your arguments against the
Phoenix meltdown, based on it.
Because I'm not the one making the argument that Phoenix is on the verge of a housing price meltdown.
ReplyDeleteI see.
ReplyDeleteThats an argument worth making.
So you bring nothing to the table.
Well if you are gonna contend it,
do it with some substance.
David
ReplyDeleteThe NAR May Sales report is out.
Time for a new thread.
Inventory climbs to 3.6M,
41% over last year.
http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/files/REL0605EHS.pdf/$FILE/REL0605EHS.pdf
I see that David didn't like my response.
ReplyDeleteOk, here it is again.
I can allege anything about anything. The sky's the limit. However, if I am the one making the allegation or argument, then it's pretty reasonable to require that I provide proof of that argument.
The burden is on the one making the argument to try to prove it.
fritz,
ReplyDeleteExactly. The inventory is the proof, leading
indicator of an impending bust.
Do you know about the Demand-Supply equation.
Prolly it does not apply to housing because
it is a new paradigm in the housing heads world.
If you are gonna contend an argument, it is making
a counter argument. Give us some proof for that.
If you can't, you have conceded.
fritz,
ReplyDeleteyou're correct of course. the 'give us counter proof" is the same divergionary tactic as the "he must be a realtor" statement. either way, when they can't prove what they allege, they try to turn the tables and put the onus on the person questioning their unsubstatiated allegation. Like the realtor accusation, you know you've hit a nerve when you get that kind of reaction. The message is getting through!
I'm sorry Anony, but you are not making an argument.
ReplyDeleteDavid made an argument.
I say that David's argument is very weakly supported by evidence.
You or some other Anony jumps in and says that I need evidence in saying that David's argument is weakly supported.
I say it's the person advancing an argument that needs to present proof that his argument is valid and supportable by facts.
You or some other Anony responds that I need the evidence to prove a negative and that if I can't provide such evidence, I have conceded the point.
Such bizarre logic is considered successful debate in Bubbleheadville.
fritz,
ReplyDeleteI think you just conceded.
Instead of discussing Phoenix inventory
you are going into a circular logic,
totally diverging the discussion since
you are weak in substantiating.
I will just leave you alone with lance.
Anony:
ReplyDeleteI have no idea how to respond to your inanity. Although I am glad that you agree with my summary of your circular logic. Have a blessed day.
i think everyone can agree that the dramatic rise in inventory is not good news. something has to give eventually. my fear is that a lot of the investors will walk away from their 100% financed homes. the lenders will own homes that they will want to dump at a major loss, take the hit to their earnings, and then focus on the next quarter. time to short COUNTRYWIDE & ABN.
ReplyDelete"Not much substance. Instead of cherry picking two paragraphs from the Dallas Morning News, how about a more detailed chart on a ZIP code-by ZIP code comparison of inventory, sales, prices, etc. That would be a much more subtantive way of trying to prove that the Phoenix meltdown abyss is right around the corner."
ReplyDeleteActually this person is correct. If you breakdown the inventory for the areas surrounding Phx you'll notice some cities have a lot higher percentage of homes on the market than other areas. Which is one of the reason a 3 bedrooom 2 bath resale home in East Mesa (85205/district 4 schools) 1400-1600 sq ft. built around 1988-90 are still selling between $235,000-$245,000. (Feb. 2005 they were selling $190,000 and peaked at $250,000 last summer)