Lawrence Yun or Most Forecasters, Who to Believe?

The Realtor's propagandists continue to have their arguments given equal weight with far more reputable voices. From Bankrate.com, via CNBC:

Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, expects a "soft" first half of this year for housing and the economy and then "notable improvement" in the second half of the year. But U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. notes in a recent speech that "most forecasters expect a prolonged period of adjustment" in housing.

Hmmm. Who should we believe? The Realtors—to whom negative housing news is like Kryptonite—or most forecasters? The futures market is also pointing to continued price declines throughout all of 2008.