The housing market in the Washington and Baltimore area has been declining in the Washington, DC for over 2 years. Thus the year over year comparisons only represent a portion of the declining housing market.
Northern Virginia (Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Arlington County, Alexandria City, & Falls Church City, VA (NVAR))
* Median Price: $405K
* Median Sales Price YoY: -13.8%
* Average Sales Price YoY: -12.8%
* Total Units Sold YoY: -5%
* Average Days on Market YoY: 21%
* Active Listings YoY: 5%
* Months Supply: 6.2
Baltimore City Area (Anne Arundel, Baltimore City/County, Carroll, Harford, Howard (BALT AREA) )
* Median Price: $270k
* Median Sales Price YoY: -1.1%
* Average Sales Price YoY: 1.1%
* Total Units Sold YoY: -30%
* Average Days on Market YoY: 39%
* Active Listings YoY: 9%
* Months Supply: 9.8
Washington, DC (just the District of Columbia, no suburbs)
* Median Price: $440k
* Median Sales Price YoY: 5%
* Average Sales Price YoY: 6.9%
* Total Units Sold YoY: -23%
* Average Days on Market YoY: 28%
* Active Listings YoY: 14%
* Months Supply: 6.8
Prince George's County, MD
* Median Price: $285K
* Median Sales Price YoY: -12.3%
* Average Sales Price YoY: -10.4%
* Total Units Sold YoY: -48%
* Average Days on Market YoY: 61%
* Active Listings YoY: 66%
* Months Supply: 20
Montgomery County, MD
* Median Price: $410K
* Median Sales Price YoY: -7.9%
* Average Sales Price YoY: -11.5%
* Total Units Sold YoY: -35%
* Average Days on Market YoY: 32%
* Active Listings YoY: 15%
* Months Supply: 8.9
Loudoun County, VA
* Median Price: $351K
* Median Sales Price YoY: -19.3%
* Average Sales Price YoY: -22.6%
* Total Units Sold YoY: 12%
* Average Days on Market YoY: 7.2%
* Active Listings YoY: -6%
* Months Supply: 6.8
Arlington County, VA
* Median Price: $423K
* Median Sales Price YoY: -12.9&
* Average Sales Price YoY: -10.3%
* Total Units Sold YoY: -26%
* Average Days on Market YoY: 17%
* Active Listings YoY: 5%
* Months Supply: 4.6
Frederick County, MD
* Median Price: $286K
* Median Sales Price YoY: -11.7%
* Average Sales Price YoY: -7%
* Total Units Sold YoY: - 30%
* Average Days on Market YoY: 22%
* Active Listings YoY: -1%
* Months Supply: 12.3
Fairfax County, VA
* Median Price: $399K
* Median Sales Price YoY: -13.2%
* Average Sales Price YoY: -14%
* Total Units Sold YoY: 1%
* Average Days on Market YoY: 17%
* Active Listings YoY: 7%
* Months Supply: 6.7
Prince William County, VA
* Median Sales Price YoY: -31.7%
* Average Sales Price YoY: -30.1%
* Total Units Sold YoY: 68%
* Average Days on Market YoY: 9.4%
* Active Listings YoY: 3%
* Months Supply: 7.7
For more numbers on jurisdictions not mentioned here please go to MRIS Market Statistics.
These numbers show a declining housing market in the Washington - Baltimore area compared to last year. In most jurisdictions listed inventory remains elevated (above 6 months) and sales remain low.
In Prince William County, VA lower prices are driving higher sales which in May were up an incredible 68% compared to May 2007. Median sales price stood at 256K which is down 31% from last year. The median price was 392K in May 2005. For more information on Northern Virginia please see A Decade of A March Sales at Greater Northern VA Housing Bubble Fallout.
In some jurisdictionsThere are significant market statistics which should bring cheer to housing heads.
1) Sales have risen in certain jurisdictions compared with last May:
- Fairfax County: 1%
- Loudoun County: 12%
- Prince William County: 68%
2) Active Listings have fallen or remained flat in certain jurisdictions compared with last May:
- Prince William County, VA 3%
- Frederick County, MD -1%
- Prince William County, VA 7.7
- Arlington County, VA 4.6
- Loudoun County, VA 6.8
Posts
What is fascinating about your analysis is your failure to underscore the resilience of the market in the city of Washington.
ReplyDeleteI just saw this earlier this week:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/content/jun2008/bw2008065_526168.htm?campaign_id=rss_null
All of the prime ARM loans are going to begin resetting sooner than anyone thought. Because most of these have clauses that force them to adjust once their balance exceeds certain principle caps, usually between 110% and 125%.
The amount of money tied up in these is at least as big as subprime. The bulk of these will begin resetting at the end of this year. These enjoyed widespread use by everyone throughout the metro area. The resetting of these will cause massive foreclosures in desirable neighborhoods, like Lance's.
Anonymous said...
ReplyDeleteI just saw this earlier this week:
http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/content/jun2008/bw2008065_526168.htm?campaign_id=rss_null
Anonymous,
Thank you for the heads up. I will be posting a summary of the article to this blog shortly. Any time you find articles on the housing bubble and bust that you find interesting, please let us know.
"The amount of money tied up in these is at least as big as subprime. The bulk of these will begin resetting at the end of this year. These enjoyed widespread use by everyone throughout the metro area. The resetting of these will cause massive foreclosures in desirable neighborhoods, like Lance's."
ReplyDeleteYawn - do you think for a second that these people will default at anywhere near the same rate as the subprime lot? In the DC metro area. these people have been refinancing (yes its still posible close in) at the rate of 36,000 per year. This is in addition to all those that have sold since 2005, all those that are getting their loans modified as we speak, and all those that will be allowed to get into fixed rate loans (even though they otherwise wouldnt qualify) because the banks dont want to have this happen again. Plus 28% of all Alt A's have already reset.
Translation - there is certainly more pain ahead, but if you think this will cause nearly the amount of pain the current situation is causing the market, I think you are seriously mistaken.
Yawn - Do you think someone making $60K a year can afford payments on even a standard $750K mortgage? Adjustable or not, either the payment will double or go up as a standard loan, either way those salary men downtown are maxed.
ReplyDelete