Monday, June 16, 2008

Mid-Atlantic States Real Estate Prices

Click on the images to see full-sized graphs of housing prices for Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Maryland, and New York City.



Source.

10 comments:

  1. James,

    You want to see FC's...

    Get on realtytrac and go to MD, then select Charles county then go up around waldorf to an area called St Charles...

    high 200 to 300K and realty trac will say reduce your map ..too many to list...

    But as i am sure i am missing something because in 04, 05, 06 and july 07 i was told Chuck county was bubble proof because of median income and proximity to military bases...

    ha

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  2. It's interesting, it seems like everyone thinks the place they live is special. Whether it's DC, Hawaii, New York, Chicago, California, Britain, etc., the argument goes "Housing won't decline in [NAME OF HOMETOWN] because [REASON HOMETOWN IS SPECIAL]."

    The same type of argument is often used for any type of asset bubble by replacing the location with the time period. "[ASSET TYPE] won't decline in [TIME PERIOD] because [REASON TIME PERIOD IS SPECIAL]." For example, stocks wouldn't decline after the 1990s' stock bubble because the Internet made made the 1990s special.

    Of course, these arguments are almost always wrong.

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  3. prince of belairJune 17, 2008 4:58 AM

    except that Baltimore has not dropped...bottom line is that it was underpriced all along, and now is seen for its true value

    it IS different here - especially in choice zip codes (21015)

    -Fresh

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  4. "prince of belair said...

    it IS different here"

    Hyperbole aside, Will Smith may have a point here. Balmer was absurdly cheap in relation to DC and it isnt any farther away than places like Ashburn and PWC that are getting rocked. Thus, maybe it is one of those exceptionally rare cases where most of the value run up of the last few years was warranted.

    The next few years will tell.

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  5. James, I'm not skeptical of the trends suggested by these graphs, but can you be more specific about what those left-side figures represent other than just "price"? Median asking price? Median selling price? Something else?

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  6. " Balmer was absurdly cheap in relation to DC "

    If that is true, then homes in central DC that were valued below the mean and median for the Metro area over the past 40 years, have realized permanent gains in value.

    (Unless, of course, you bought into the frenzy)

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  7. Jeff said...
    James, I'm not skeptical of the trends suggested by these graphs, but can you be more specific about what those left-side figures represent other than just "price"? Median asking price? Median selling price? Something else?

    Sure. The graphs estimate the value of today's median-priced house over time. When I say median-priced house, I mean selling price, not asking price or appraised price.

    The blue line is nominal value. The red line is inflation-adjusted value.

    If you ignore the dollar values on the left, you are actually seeing graphs of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for Washington and New York, or the OFHEO House Price Index for Baltimore.

    To convert index values into dollar values, I am taking the first quarter 2008 median selling price, as reported by NAR, and then discounting it by the S&P or OFHEO HPI. The math for the points along the blue line works as follows:

    For Q1 2008
    Q1 '08 HPI ÷ Q1 '08 HPI × Q1 '08 NAR Median Price

    For Q4 2001
    Q4 '01 HPI ÷ Q1 '08 HPI × Q1 '08 NAR Median Price

    The red line is the blue line further adjusted by the CPI - All items less shelter.

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  8. "Anon said...

    If that is true, then homes in central DC that were valued below the mean and median for the Metro area over the past 40 years, have realized permanent gains in value."

    I guess you are right - can you say revert to a NEW mean???

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  9. Wow, selling in Oct 05 was a pretty good call! I will admit it included some luck, too.

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  10. "If that is true, then homes in central DC that were valued below the mean and median for the Metro area over the past 40 years, have realized permanent gains in value"

    Yep - here is the latest from the WaPo:

    The analysis found that the steepest declines in home sale prices, between April 2007 and April 2008, occurred in the outer suburban ring, defined as Loudoun, Prince William and Frederick counties. The average price there dropped by $110,900, or 25 percent. The inner ring, Fairfax, Montgomery and Prince George's, had a decline of 3.2 percent. THE CORE, DEFINED AS THE DISTRICT, ARLINGTON COUNTY AND ALEXANDRIA, EXPERIENCED AN INCREASE 3.4 percent.”

    3 years into the bubble and more of the same - guess some areas really are different after all!!!

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