Fully 18 of 20 markets in the Case Shiller Home Price Index showed a rise in prices, demonstrating that the trend is broad-based. Only Las Vegas and Detroit saw declining overall prices in June. Nevertheless, on a year-over-year basis prices still are off by a considerable margin, 15.1% for the Composite-10 index and 15.4% for the Composite-20. (Seeking Alpha)
In the Washington, DC area prices were up 2.2% (seasonally adjusted) in June compared to May; Annually prices are down 11.8%.
For more info:
- Case Shiller Home Price Index (Standard & Poor's)
- Case-Shiller House Price Index Increases in June (Calculated Risk)
Posts
the silence......... is deafening.
ReplyDeleteWill prices in the DC area come down in the fall and winter months? Was a few months ago really the bottom?
ReplyDeleteMy guess is that we may very well see a resumption of declines nationally and in the DC area, for reasons descibed in last week's Economist: http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14258851
ReplyDeleteThere has been a lot of activity in the lower end of the market, but for higher priced properties in Montogmery County which I observe regularly, there isn't much moving at all.
But the data is the data, there is a clear uptick now, and it will be very interesting to see how these Case-Shiller numbers turn out into the fall and winter.
agree. There were certainly downward blips on the push to the peak.
ReplyDeleteI'll start scoping out areas where crows congregate in case I need to eat one - however the bottom callers shouldn't count their crows before they hatch...
"Nonpartisan said...There were certainly downward blips on the push to the peak."
ReplyDeleteNot true. During the runup 1999-2006, there was not a single downward blip anywhere in the series - 79 consecutive month over month gains - no exceptions.
Likewise, during the rundown there were 34 consecutive downward movements, without a single monthly gain whatsoever.
So the beauty of this series is that it does not "blip" it does not "dead cat bounce" - its incredibly stable. If history is any guide this is either the beginning of a long flat bottom (my guess), or the start of another upward trend.
"Nonpartisan said...I'll start scoping out areas where crows congregate in case I need to eat one"
ReplyDeleteI would suggest Route 1 in the Alexandria portion of FFX county. The power lines near the home depot have a bunch of them.
" - however the bottom callers shouldn't count their crows before they hatch..."
Yeah - ill take it easy on you as the prices will start their usual seasonal slippage in the fall, and I will catch an earful then - especially if we go below 160. Still, getting down to your non crow eating 110 is getting less and less likely.
David said...
ReplyDeleteWill prices in the DC area come down in the fall and winter months? Was a few months ago really the bottom?
Yes on the first, likely yes on the second, (or extremely close). On to more pressing questions. Does James still think that DC will bottom after the rest of the US, or will he admit that it was just wishful thinking?
http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/2009/06/us-home-prices-not-so-overvalued.html
Look at Davey boy being the bearer of good housing news ever since he bought a home. You choose to believe what you want to believe. But remember, history is not on your side. Home values will return to fundamentals. So throw a big party for that whopping 1.4% increase. Davey boy is wetting his pants!
ReplyDeleteOnce the $8k tax incentive expires in Novemeber it will be interesting to see what happens. Although I understand the government has another "goodie" for potential home purchasers in the nature of a $15k tax credit for all purchasers regardless of income limits. I hear they are trying to keep it quiet so that current demand is not affected. So Mr. James may be sitting pretty come 2010 getting the last laugh. And I will be laughing along side of him buying at the true bottom! By the way, my name is Bob!
ReplyDeleteDavey boy has been spot on since day 1 - like way back in 2005 when he called peak and it happened a few months later - despite numerous catcalls from the bulls.
ReplyDeleteNow here it is 2009 and he again calls bottom. Again it looks like he is right, and ironically the catcalls now come from the bears.
I agree that home values with return to fundamentals. So just like at the end of the last bubble (1991-1998), I expect years and years of sideways prices as incomes slowly rise to get fundamentals back in line.
I still expect price declines in the DC area during the winter months.
ReplyDeleteDavid - earlier you said case shiller may get down to 150-151. Still think it will ever get down that low?
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said: "So the beauty of this series is that it does not "blip" it does not "dead cat bounce" - its incredibly stable. If history is any guide..."
ReplyDeleteThat's really the question: How much can we rely on past history to forecast today when the situation is unprecedented? The massive stimulus for housing along with big price drops at the low end did have a significant effect around here. What will happen when the life support ends, however?
What would be interesting is a breakdown of the index in terms of price range. My guess is that most of the price appreciation was at the low end...but I may be wrong.
My previous call was for a bottom of 145-155. This now looks unlikely so I am raising it to 150-160.
ReplyDeleteThis news unquestionably indicates that we've at least reached the false bottom. The question is, what impact will this have on the market's behavior? Now that the Fed has effectively reversed the momentum, can it be sustained without 1)reinflating the bubble or 2)slipping back down the slope? I think there goal is to keep homevalues flat until fundamentals intersect. From their perspective, higher homevalues flat over a long period is much healthier for the economy than plunging homevalues further followed by a shorter period of no appreciations.
ReplyDeleteMore "we've hit bottom" stupidity. The banks are sitting on a million homes and "we're not losing jobs as quickly anymore".
ReplyDeleteThis type of bubble pumping won't work because of fundamentals. Economists stopped looking at those during the Reagan era to substitute their own reality.
Anonymous@4:50: "More 'we've hit bottom' stupidity. The banks are sitting on a million homes..."
ReplyDeleteCould be. Here's a sobering experience I had this week. We are looking at putting an offer on a particular home and took a look at the six immediate neighbors to this home (it's in a little cul-de-sac of 7 homes). Three of them were bought in 2005 and are at least $150K underwater. That's scary! Clearly, the game is nowhere near over yet.
And yet despite the foreclosures, which where there 3, 6 and 12 months ago, prices are rising...
ReplyDeleteAnonymous@5:19: "And yet despite the foreclosures, which where there 3, 6 and 12 months ago, prices are rising..."
ReplyDeleteNot really. Remember those moratoriums earlier this year?
I do. Yet despite the lifting of that moratorium, inventory kept going down down down. One of the reasons prices stopped going down down down.
ReplyDeleteBob Shiller on TV today
ReplyDelete1. Latest results look like the beginning of a new trend.
2. Dont expect any serious upside though, no more than a 5% rise between now and 2014.
"I do. Yet despite the lifting of that moratorium, inventory kept going down down down."
ReplyDeleteRight, because banks are sitting on lots of homes...just like the earlier anonymous poster said. What do you think will happen when banks flood the market with the massive shadow inventory, which keeps growing?
Also, I wouldn't say that prices stopped going down. The year-over-year numbers are still way down and CS does not account for seasonal effects.
In response to Wireknob's question, and also Partisan's initial comments (which I agree with):
ReplyDeleteCase-Shiller tiered price indices are available for the DC area.
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,4,0,0,0,0,0.html
If you graph the numbers by tier for the DC area (420+K), you'll see very clearly that the upper end didn't rise as much as the lower end during the bubble, and that the top tier also saw some mini-flat phases both on the way up and on the way down (thus far).
"Wireknob said...Also, I wouldn't say that prices stopped going down. The year-over-year numbers are still way down and CS does not account for seasonal effects."
ReplyDeleteThankfully, CS puts out a seasonally adjusted series. It too says prices are up - 3 months in a row:
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SA_CSHomePrice_History_082562.xls
Thanks. Anonymous, for the links. Looks like things started to flatten starting in the early spring, and have risen slightly as of late. It's pretty much across the board in price range, and this is the best index in these abnormal times.
ReplyDeleteI guess we're on a plateau. I know the readership here is a bit slanted in their views of the housing market, but it would be fun to take a poll. Will prices:
a) level off. Inflation will take care of the remaining price correction.
b) start rising again. Get out of here with that "correction" crap, this is DC.
c) continue to crater. This is just a temporary pause, and we have a ways to go yet.
My brain, such as it is, says (c) but I secretly hope that things improve right after I buy. Still can't shake that queasy feeling I get when I look at all those foreclosures and underwater homeowners, and think about interest rates rising and stimulus drying up.
"Wireknob said...Right, because banks are sitting on lots of homes...just like the earlier anonymous poster said. What do you think will happen when banks flood the market with the massive shadow inventory, which keeps growing?"
ReplyDeleteAhh yes, the REO TSUNAMI rumor that will never die. Remember when Mr. Mortgage first proposed this a year ago in his breathlessly titled "the quickening"?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMpCB9Ckk-o
How did that one work out?
mortgage rates do matter...and we are seeing the effects of low mortgage rates.
ReplyDeleteyou cant have a home buyer go from paying 8% annually in interest to 5 or 6% annually without some upside in home prices. so you cant compare 1990s level prices to todays without making this adjustment in affordability. that is a lot of interest each month a borrower doesnt have to pay any more.
i believe i called mid 160s on DC case shiller a number of months ago based upon mortgage rates and affordability, looks like I wasnt to far off.
everyone has been talking about a shadow inventory, but i think
ReplyDeletethese home price statistics may also embolden buyers who have been on the sidelines waiting to enter the market, as they were afraid of catching a falling knife before. I like to call them the shadow buyers, and I think we will begin to see them enter the picture now as well to help absorb any shadow inventory that may also come to market. unfortunately, so many people are underwater on their mortgages that i dont know that the shadow inventory of home sellers just waiting to sell is that big since many people cant afford to sell since they are underwater. this may be another reason inventories remain in check
just a thought
Im a shadow buyer. However, Im not going to pay what the current prices are, I would rather rent and move from the DC in a couple of years.
ReplyDeleteIf home prices dropped at least 30% from where they are, I MIGHT think about buying here. If that doesnt happen, I will buy a mansion on the beach somewhere for a quarter of the price.
These are some of my observations as a potential home buyer. I'm primarily looking in NoVA, to the west of DC and outside the beltway.
ReplyDelete* REOs and underwater homeowners are a real phenomena. Prices have dropped considerably out here and many are desperately underwater or have already lost their homes. I agree that underwater homeowners are helping keep inventory low as they can't absorb the loss and are holding on.
* REOs and short sales have been selling like hotcakes, so the inventory has been very low for the past few months. Regular sales priced according to comps at the lower end also sell quickly. Foreclosures are worse the farther out you go.
* Appraisals are really having an effect. You do not see houses selling for more than comps, and in some cases (especially where there are short sales & foreclosures) the appraisal pulls the price down below comparable regular sales.
* Interest rates do affect buyers' top line. When our interest rate goes up, our top price goes down. In the long run it has to since banks base your approved amount on monthly payments. Rates have been very low all year, but watch out when they go up over the next year or two.
* There is a lot of pent-up demand. Lots of people have been waiting for years to buy a home at a "reasonable" price. People like myself don't need a full correction or the deal of the century, we just want something affordable and not too out of line with historical values so we can get on with our lives. We're willing to accept a modest, short-term hit in values.
* Some zip codes, even out here, are holding up better than others. It seems to take a significant drop in prices to produce bigger drops. Once the fall starts, it snowballs. But if the fall is gradual, there is a lot of stickiness to prices. Unless sellers are desperate they won't sell way below comps. So it seems that unless something triggers a dramatic fall, prices move slowly.
* Immunozones? Maybe. Stronger housing markets are more desirable and valuable these days because they are stronger. Those with the money do not want to be surrounded by distressed properties and seem willing to pay a premium to be in a stronger area. This helps prop up prices in the strong areas. I think of an island that is sinking; those with the resources will fight over the higher ground, leaving those without to drown. Just like water is more valuable in the desert, relatively stable housing markets are more valuable during a housing crash...but there has to be enough people that can afford the higher prices to sustain them.
Overall, there are some pressures pushing prices down and others pushing prices up. Locally, I can see things play out differently while I think overall prices will fall. In my opinion, interest rates and desperately underwater homeowners are the key factors, and they will push prices way down in the long run in most places. But arguments to the contrary also carry weight for me.
Anonymous 3:38 said...
ReplyDeleteLook at Davey boy being the bearer of good housing news ever since he bought a home. You choose to believe what you want to believe.
And you don't? LOL
The only thing holding you back is yourself.
Prices are actually still going down. It's called an $8,000 fake increase in the way of the home buying incentive. Net that out and you get a better idea. You can clearly see, first time home buyers are the only ones really buying... anything over 250k has decreases.
ReplyDeleteIm a shadow buyer. However, Im not going to pay what the current prices are, I would rather rent and move from the DC in a couple of years.
ReplyDeleteIf home prices dropped at least 30% from where they are, I MIGHT think about buying here. If that doesnt happen, I will buy a mansion on the beach somewhere for a quarter of the price.
If wine prices were to drop by 50%, I MIGHT think about drinking wine again. If that doesn't happen, I will drink beer.
Take *THAT* wine.
"Prices are actually still going down. It's called an $8,000 fake increase in the way of the home buying incentive. Net that out and you get a better idea. You can clearly see, first time home buyers are the only ones really buying... anything over 250k has decreases."
ReplyDeleteIf so then why is the low, mid AND high price tier of the CS market going UP genius???
Further, I love this sort of eyes glaze over - declarative sentence fragments = an argument, argument. I can do it to see:
"Prices are actually still going UP. It's called an $8,000 long lasting increase in the way of the home buying incentive. Net that out and you get a better idea that prices are still up. You can clearly see, first time and move up home buyers are the ones really buying in DC... anything under 1,000,000 has increases."
There - I said it - therefore it must be true!!!
The latest news on property data and Home Prices should not come as a surprise and we should not begin celebrating an end to the crisis. In our article Cyclical, Seasonal and Emotional, we discussed the three critical phases of real estate selling patterns that have attributed to the housing bust.
ReplyDeleteThe latest news and public records indicate that these critical phases are performing to historical levels. That is, the summer seasonal market is showing a correction to the cyclical change that began in 2007. Now the million dollar question is, will the fall seasonal market (which affects Florida, Arizona and Nevada) continue to show recovery or will the markets pause until the next “Selling Season in 2010?”
Our report: Housing in Crisis (published in March 2009 www.accuriz.com) addressed the broader issue of excess housing. Again, there is good news on this front. The excess housing is being absorbed at an annualized rate of about 1 million units. Having a glut of 5 million units at the end of 2008, this means we have another three to four years before the overall markets start to recover.
Housing Recovery is the focal point here. We predict that the Northeast will continue to show stability, with modest corrections in local markets from 3% to 5% through the end of 2010. The Midwest remains strong and will experience similar stability. In the five biggest areas where excess housing still dictates selling patterns, we are predicting that Arizona will recover sooner than sections of Florida and Vegas.
The latest news on the housing market is not a surpirse. Recovery and Stability are the focal points and we should start to see signs of this in the upcoming months.
Well I gotta admit, this trend change has made a believer out of me. I used to watch the futures market - for years they have been telegraphing a "bottoming" in CS starting in mid 2009.
ReplyDeleteEven late last year when the world economy was on the brink of disaster, and home values were heading straight down, the futures market held steadfast, insisting a bottoming in CS mid 2009.
Sure enough it happened. Im not happy about the prices, but truth is I can afford it (I just wanted better deals - dont we all). Thankfully too they arent projecting any increase at all - meaning they stay flat while inflation plays catch up - meaning there is no rush to buy.
As I see it, this is the best of all worlds, no rush to buy, coupled with the assurance that if we do buy, there is little chance there is "another leg down" causing us to lose our shirts!
Oh and James one more thing - remember when you insisted home prices do not undershoot? According to CS, you might be right!!!
ReplyDeleteno rush to buy,
ReplyDeleteHurry! These rates won't last long!
:)
Nationally, everything over 250k is still showing decreases. first time home buyers that fall off in December can and will not hold up the market at inflated levels. Either prices come down, inflation goes up, or both.
ReplyDelete"Remember when Mr. Mortgage first proposed this a year ago ....
ReplyDeleteHow did that one work out?"
Shouldnt you be asking the banks? They are the ones still sitting on millions of empty houses.
correct - and they will still be sitting on them in 2010, 2011, etc. keep dribbling them out, bit by bit all the while maintaining stability in the market.
ReplyDeleteReally this is what theve been doing since mid 2008, around the time Mr. Mortgage said THE BANKS WILL DUMP AND SPRING 2009 WILL BE A DISASTER.
Yeah, good call there Mr. M!!!!
"If wine prices were to drop by 50%, I MIGHT think about drinking wine again. If that doesn't happen, I will drink beer.
ReplyDeleteTake *THAT* wine."
wait, are you comparing a 500 square foot row house a block or two from crack town to wine and a 2,800 square foot home on water front property to beer?
Take *THAT* delusional imbecile.
How dare you compare beer to wine!!! Wine is so much more tasty and classy!
ReplyDeleteAnd what about those delusional imbeciles who compare a 2800 square foot home on waterfront property to a 1500 square foot home in the mountains! Ridiculous!
Or live theater to a day at the ballpark!!!
Jesus, sometimes the commenters here are literally beyond parody.
"If home prices dropped at least 30% from where they are, I MIGHT think about buying here. If that doesnt happen, I will buy a mansion on the beach somewhere for a quarter of the price."
ReplyDeleteDude - I rent in "Mansion on the beach somewhere" and you are an idiot if you pay these prices. They wanted 250K for an acre on the water and I was like WTF!!!
If prices in "mansion on the beach somewhere" come down 30% I MIGHT think about buying. But if they dont, I will just move and buy a PALACE in Ulaan Bataar for 1/4 of the price. Take that mansion on the beach somewhere!!!!
Car sales are way up the past couple months! Looks like the American automotive industry is out of the hole and back on the upswing, too.
ReplyDeleteI was hoping that the economy was finally getting better.
ReplyDeleteA handful of paitence is worth more than a bushel of brains.
ReplyDeleteMan this thread is for suckers:
ReplyDeleteCase Shiller Price Index Up
Oh really?
CASE SHILLER CONFIRMS FAKE HOUSING BOTTOM - 8-26 - http://mhanson.com/archives/173
Doh.
"Dude - I rent in "Mansion on the beach somewhere" and you are an idiot if you pay these prices."
ReplyDeleteI dont know if you are taking a dig at "mansion on the beach somewhere" as a term. But to be honest, I would take a home in Daytona, Jupiter FL, Jacksonville Beach FL, Ft Lauderdale, Homestead, Key Largo, or just about any 2,500 foot home on the beach in California too over a 500 square foot place in PG county.
Yeah I know there are lots of beach mansion real estate in the US! Which is why I said "mansion on the beach somewhere"..There is so much of it, that you can get a 2,500 sq foot home for 1/10th of a water damaged piece of garbage here in the DC metro area. Yeah the job market in Ft Lauderdale or Jupiter FL aint as hot as in Germantown or Gaithersburg, but the location and the prices are a fraction of the cost.
So what is wrong with the idea of rent here for 5 years, save up $400K-$500K cash and then move to some tropical paradise, buy a mansion and hire a team of illegal immigrants to take care of everything and live like a king in my late 30s? Why would you want to take a dig at that? I dont need to impress my coworkers in the district, who I pretty much hate anyway, with my brand new row house that needs major renovations before its move in ready.
oops, forgot to comment on this one...
ReplyDelete"How dare you compare beer to wine!!! Wine is so much more tasty and classy!"
I didnt, you did.
"Jesus, sometimes the commenters here are literally beyond parody."
yeah no kidding, bringing up some ridiculous examples to prove a point and then try to say someone else brought it up. People like ibc dont have an argument, so they have to pick on strawmen to make any post at all.
". Yeah the job market in Ft Lauderdale or Jupiter FL aint as hot as in Germantown or Gaithersburg, but the location and the prices are a fraction of the cost."
ReplyDeleteIf your lucky you may be able to land a job at disney picking up trash...
I personally would rather have a high cost of living and a good job in DC then a low cost of living with no job in florida.
"Noz said...
ReplyDeleteMan this thread is for suckers:
Case Shiller Price Index Up
Oh really?
CASE SHILLER CONFIRMS FAKE HOUSING BOTTOM - 8-26 - http://mhanson.com/archives/173
Doh."
Ahh yes Mark (Mr. Mortgage) Hanson who told us in "the Quickening" that banks would DUMP properties in a TSUNAMI spring 09 causing prices to tumble
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMpCB9Ckk-o
Double DOH!
The rally is real say Case and Shiller
ReplyDeletehttp://www.voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2009/08/26/toscano/684jun09caseshiller082609.txt
Triple DOH!
"If your lucky you may be able to land a job at disney picking up trash..."
ReplyDeleteYeah disney is about a 3-4 hour drive from the beaches of ft.lauderdale. Learn some geography.
"CASE SHILLER CONFIRMS FAKE HOUSING BOTTOM - 8-26 - http://mhanson.com/archives/173"
ReplyDeleteWow the flaws in his argument are so huge you could drive a truck through them. Is that why he suddenly, curiously doesnt allow comments as its clear he is grasping at straws and doesnt want to be called out on it. I cant imagine any other reason why he would suddenly turn the comments off.
As more and more factors are turning against him, it looks like he is making his last stand stand. Me thinks this will be the deathknell of his influence over the hordes of followers who will suddenly realize their emporer has no clothes.
Ahh yes Mark (Mr. Mortgage) Hanson who told us in "the Quickening" that banks would DUMP properties in a TSUNAMI spring 09 causing prices to tumble
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMpCB9Ckk-o
Double DOH!
Ah yes...Mark...he's been spot on....and what have you been saying...other than being a wimpering ANON?
I doubt you've even read his stuff...you just went to his site and looked up the name of the blog....nice going.
Yeah no kidding, bringing up some ridiculous examples to prove a point and then try to say someone else brought it up. People like ibc don't have an argument, so they have to pick on strawmen to make any post at all.
ReplyDeleteAnd meanwhile, we've learned that Anonymous really, really likes the beach, but isn't quite as big a fan of the Smithsonian, or live music. But that if regional housing prices fall another 30%, he MIGHT stick around.
Oh, and that he has an extremely unsatisfying job. Man, this week has been so educational.
ReplyDeleteWow the flaws in his argument are so huge you could drive a truck through them. Is that why he suddenly, curiously doesnt allow comments as its clear he is grasping at straws and doesnt want to be called out on it. I cant imagine any other reason why he would suddenly turn the comments off.
As more and more factors are turning against him, it looks like he is making his last stand stand. Me thinks this will be the deathknell of his influence over the hordes of followers who will suddenly realize their emporer has no clothes.
Really? What factors are those?
You're a dumbass...he's just upgraded the site so that's why no comments are going on.
I'll venture to say you're a douchy troll who's never even seen so much data in your life regarding housing and it's pretty much blown your dumb ideals out of the water.
And what was your comeback? Oh yes..I missed all that data you've supplied us with....
Only an idiot like you would think this market is on its way to recovery. And you did all that single handedly without an single number to show for it....YOU ARE A GENIUS!
"is that why he suddenly, curiously doesnt allow comments as its clear he is grasping at straws and doesnt want to be called out on it. I cant imagine any other reason why he would suddenly turn the comments off."
ReplyDeleteHoly crap - you are right! LOL brilliant move there Mark. Like no one is going to see right through that!
How bout this one:
ReplyDelete"CS may not be accurately representing properties purchased during the bubble years that are now worth a fraction of their purchase price because they are not transacting. If they did it would put offsetting pressure on the index."
Huh? Of course it is accurately representing them. They have zero impact because they are not transacting.
The author's statement is analagous to saying that CS is underrepresenting home prices because there are millions of investors waiting on the sidelines for [insert reason here]. Neither is correct. The CS index is based on transactions. Homes that don't transact carry no impact.
Don't impugn the metric just because you dont like what it is saying.
Yes they do carry impact....especially when the homes on the sidelines are artificially held back from being on the market...are you really that freaking dense?
ReplyDeleteIf you want people to take you seriously, I suggest 1) you nut up and use an actual NAME and 2) offer the data that Hanson has given over the months and year to back up your claims.
Otherwise you're farting in the wind while the market keeps collapsing in front of your draped eyes.
Hey anon, I remember that "the quickening" bit last year. I went to click on your link and suddenly it says:
ReplyDeleteThis video is private
Hmmm "private" why is that? It was available not more than a few days ago. Why is he suddenly upgrading his site so as to not allow comments AND restricting viewership of his videos - interesting...
Looks like Im not the only one who sees the flaws in his arguments:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/158508-clusterstock-can-t-shake-bearish-housing-outlook
"Hmmm "private" why is that? It was available not more than a few days ago. Why is he suddenly upgrading his site so as to not allow comments AND restricting viewership of his videos - interesting..."
ReplyDeleteLOL - sorry I just saw that. Classic! Looks like the walls are collapsing all around him!
"Noz Said...Only an idiot like you would think this market is on its way to recovery."
ReplyDeleteAnd idiots like Case and Shiller I guess...
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2009/08/26/toscano/684jun09caseshiller082609.txt
Well...I suggest if you are so confident in the housing market...and CS is your guide, go and buy right now.
ReplyDeleteThat's the ultimate action you can do to prove everyone else wrong.
So let us know when you do that....oh and seriously grow some balls..and sign in with a real name...for all we know you're probably having a conversation with yourself on the Internet and you probably don't know it.
And idiots like Case and Shiller I guess...
ReplyDeleteYes they also stated the same thing back in Jan 07....oh my....where are we now.
And now with what? All those foreclosures that people like Alpha think will disappear and not affect the market....lol....OK.
Go and buy....I highly recommend it.
Id have to say, this M. Hanson guys 15 minutes are nearly up. Like the "dotcom graveyard" site that caught national attention early in the dot com implosion, he got the same thing on the ML Implode O Meter. Dude really caught lightning in a bottle and was (by some estimates) making close to 4K a month in ad revenue by pimping his permadoom
ReplyDeleteThe writing was on the wall for him once sales started going up. I remember someone even called him out using month over month numbers (which were down) unlike the YOY numbers which were up. Its the same seasonal spin the realtors did, only in reverse. Thats when I realized he was a joke.
It got even stranger when he said he was leaving for a few weeks, only to reappear a few months later as part of "field check group".
Then, after a few months there, he suddenly disappeared and reappeared on this new blog. Whole thing is just very very strange.
Looks like Im not the only one who sees the flaws in his arguments:
ReplyDeleteInteresting....you conveniently skipped the linked site with the different take....how nice of you...troll.
http://www.businessinsider.com/case-shiller-flashing-the-ultimate-false-bottom-in-housing-2009-8
I remember another time when he kept claiming he had "proprietary data" that was guiding his postings.
ReplyDeleteThen some poster named "mortgage analyst" (or something like that) showed exactly where the numbers came from via a internet site.
Mr. Mortgage then just sorta ran away when others started questioning him about it. I was hoping that "mortgage analyst" would pursue it further but he didnt.
You remember alot of things ANON...wonder where you get to remember them from. Just curious.
ReplyDeleteI lost all respect for him when he came out and advocated for principal reductions for all the underwater homeowners. How he thought everyone should escape their obligations like that was beyond me.
ReplyDeleteEven worse, he started advocating people use this company who advertised on his site to pursue the modifications. At that point he became a worthless shill and rug merchant.
"likes the beach, but isn't quite as big a fan of the Smithsonian, or live music."
ReplyDeletestraw men again. Keep it going, it makes you look idiotic.
Look I will give DC its museums. However, after you have been 200 times, its a little old. As far as live music goes, you need to try places like Austin, Boston, Chicago....but to be honest, even south florida has a bigger music scene than DC.
There is nothing special about DC, its chain restaurants, sports bars and its fat sweaty balding men in suits.
To Mr Anonymous--who inexplicably continues to live here even though he doesn't find the area's live music scene to his liking and finds his once vigorous enjoyment of the local museums scene waning--best of luck in your future endeavors. I hope your emigration from the DC area is hasty, and without incident.
ReplyDeleteSomeday I hope you find your dream community free from chain restaurants, sports bars, and fat sweaty balding men in suits (Are you sure you've been living in DC all these years? You may want to check with your postman).
Also, I'd like to apologize publicly to anyone who may have been forced to read through this exchange.
"To Mr Anonymous--who inexplicably continues to live here even though he doesn't find the area's live music scene to his liking "
ReplyDeleteagain straw men.
Overall the DC sucks other than its jobs market. I make a truckload of money and plan on either buying something SOON if prices drop at least 30% or buying a mansion in a place with better amenities with cash in 5-7 years.
I didnt bring up the live music scene here, you did. I just said there is no real music scene...its a fact. DC has nothing culturally or special to offer other than government jobs and overpriced row houses. (sans the museums of course)
capice?
Keep hitting those straw men though ;)