Thursday, August 27, 2009

Housing has likely bottomed. New bubble forming?

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but as I'm sure you're already aware, almost all data seems to be indicating a bottom in housing.

Despite the claims of the Calculated Risk blog (which I have echoed), the bottom appears to have occurred simultaneously in permits, starts, sales, and prices.

The bottom also appears to have occurred simultaneously in nearly all parts of the country. The S&P/Case-Shiller seasonally-adjusted home price index shows month-over-month increases in price for 15 of the 20 metropolitan areas it tracks, including here in the Washington, DC area.

The bottom in housing is coinciding with the bottom of the economic cycle (i.e. the end of the recession).

Housing permits:


Housing starts:


Housing prices (via Rebecca Wilder):

There is a somewhat strong possibility that the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit, which ends November 30, is creating a false housing bottom.

By transferring wealth from some taxpayers to others (apparently a Democratic Party specialty), the tax credit is creating artificial housing demand. As confirmation of the effect of this wealth transfer, we can observe a similar pattern in auto sales due to the Cash For Clunkers program. Cash For Clunkers artificially stimulated auto sales by rewarding gas guzzler owners with a $3,500-$4,500 tax credit to buy slightly less gas guzzling vehicles. (We fuel-efficient car owners get to pay the tab via our taxes.)

Low mortgage rates are also stimulating housing demand. Mortgage rates today are lower than they were earlier in this decade when they helped fuel the housing bubble. These historically low mortgage rates are likely to remain low for some time, as the Fed and Treasury do everything they can to strengthen the economy.

Just as the Fed happily encouraged a housing bubble to stimulate the economy after the 2001 bubble burst-caused recession, I fear it will happily encourage another bubble to stimulate the economy after this one. As the stock market demonstrated earlier this decade, a new bubble can form before the previous one completely deflates.

Stock market double-bubble:


The big question is, what is the primary driver of current housing activity? Is it the $8,000 tax credit, which will go away soon, or is it the historically low interest rates, which won't?

The Cash For Clunkers program, and the fact that housing activity is much stronger at the low end of the market, suggest that perhaps the $8,000 tax credit is the primary driver. Low mortgage rates should equally encourage sales of all conforming mortgages, regardless of price. By contrast, the tax credit should heavily favor low-end sales. This is because an $8,000 tax credit is 10% of the cost of an $80,000 house, but only 2% of the cost of a $400,000 house. The fact that new home buyers are currently making up a disproportionately large percentage of home buyers is further evidence of the first-time home buyer tax credit's effect.

That said, as the tax credit stimulates housing activity and prices, it may change market psychology. Rising prices and low mortgage rates may then encourage others to jump on the bandwagon, causing yet another housing bubble before the current one has fully deflated. I can't predict the future, but this is a possibility that worries me.

What could prevent such a scenario? If Nouriel Roubini's warning that the economy may experience a double-dip recession comes to pass, then that will likely knock the wind out of the housing market a second time. However, the upward sloping Treasury yield curve—the most reliable and far-sighted leading economic indicator—suggests this will not happen.

Rebecca Wilder expects home sales to surge in the next few months as the end of the tax credit nears. Due to data lag, we likely won't know until spring 2010 whether home prices continue falling after the tax credit expires.

32 comments:

  1. James - nice post first of all. Gutsy call - likely to anger many of your readership who want to believe we are "nowhere near the bottom".

    As to new bubbles, lets not call them before they are blown. Dont let that tiny spike in the last 2 months fool you. Much of that is seasonal and likely to go the other way in the fall. As many here have mentioned, the market is projecting a 3-5% increase in housing prices over the next 4 years.

    If that comes to pass, thats some incredibly anemic growth. If so, thats nearly ideal as it allows plenty of time for infltion to put in a true floor under what now is a shaky platform floor - no new bubble.

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  2. You are speaking out of both sides of your mouth with this post. Are you calling a bottom or not?

    A false bottom is not a bottom. Clearly we've hit at least a plateau over the past few months. Is this a true bottom or is it just a temporary floor brought about by massive government stimulus and market intervention?

    My opinion is that this is just a temporary stimulus-induced shot of adrenalin. Trillions of dollars of stimulus and the postponing of foreclosures has only delayed our day of reckoning. We'll see.

    Request: Does anyone know what the breakdown by month of distressed versus non-distressed sales were for the past year? I'm wondering what the correlation is between this ratio and the various indices.

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  3. By transferring wealth from some taxpayers to others (apparently a Democratic Party specialty)

    A bit off-topic, but this is a pretty rube-ish thing to say. The idea that there's any significant difference in "redistribution of wealth" between the parties is naive in the extreme. I realize it was probably just snark; but I always assumed you were a bit more savvy than all that.

    Go elephants!! Boo donkeys!!!

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  4. Don't forget to factor in the issue that banks are holding back a substantial amount of inventory.

    This will be a false bottom, but the question is how long it will last.

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  5. There is no price bottom yet for several reasons.

    1.) Not only are banks holding back inventory, so are a bevy of potential sellers, waiting to list their properties "until the market comes back."

    2.) The $8,000 tax credit is a scam. It does nothing to lower the price of housing for buyers; rather, it is factored into the purchace price and becomes a direct transfer from taxpayers to sellers.
    As soon as the tax credit goes away, that will shave an immediate $8k or so off of each house sold.

    3.) Unemployment is still rising. People without jobs (or who are in danger of losing their jobs) dp not buy houses.

    4.) We are waiting for another wave of defaults that is just beginning.

    5.) The most important factor:
    interest rates will rise. As soon as interest rates rise, house prices will fall proportionately.

    Also, it's my impression that there is some panic buying right now because most people are under the mistaken impression that low interest rates make it a good time to buy, and they are foolishly trying to get in before the rates rise.

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  6. "Also, it's my impression that there is some panic buying right now because most people are under the mistaken impression that low interest rates make it a good time to buy, and they are foolishly trying to get in before the rates rise."

    Well of course it is. But heres the thing, the price trend is no longer your friend. As james so eloquently explained, interest rates arent going up for a long time.

    In the mean time, what happens if a house goes from 300 to 350K.

    Then when the interest rates DO rise, what if prices only fall to 310-315 (cause by that time inflation has pushed the real floor that much higher).

    Not saying this will happen but if it could. In this case, what did waiting get you?

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  7. "Then when the interest rates DO rise, what if prices only fall to 310-315 (cause by that time inflation has pushed the real floor that much higher). "

    Exactly - I remember back during the early 1990s bubble, people were saying as soon as interest rates rise, prices will come down.

    For starters, its not that simple. Interest rates spiked at 10-15% in the 80s and nominal prices did not drop (thanks to inflation).

    Second, at the last post bubble in the mid 90s when rates did rise (close to 9%), but prices stayed flat.

    In hindsight, it would have been better to buy in 1993 at price X with 7% interest than in 1995 at price X with 9% interest.

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  8. Speaking of which, if you want to confirm this, search the archives here (2005-2006 period) for posts from the very bearish "Sarah in DC".

    She waited with baited breath in the 1980s for the high interest rates to crush home prices, watching them rise to her dismay. She can explain this much better than I can.

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  9. Anonymous said...
    "James - nice post first of all."

    Thank you.

    Anonymous said...
    "As to new bubbles, lets not call them before they are blown."

    I'm not calling a new bubble. I can't predict the future. This just looks like a familiar pattern and it worries me.

    Anonymous said...
    "Dont let that tiny spike in the last 2 months fool you. Much of that is seasonal and likely to go the other way in the fall."

    I hope you are right and I am wrong. Last year home prices slowed and I started getting nervous, but once the spring passed, prices started plunging again. A similar thing could happen again this year. I'm just not so sure.

    wireknob said...
    "You are speaking out of both sides of your mouth with this post. Are you calling a bottom or not?"

    I'm not calling a bottom. I'm just saying a bottom is likely, but not definite. The latest Case-Shiller data has me in shock. If today's post sounds confused, it's because I am.

    ibc said...
    "The idea that there's any significant difference in 'redistribution of wealth' between the parties is naive in the extreme. I realize it was probably just snark... Go elephants!! Boo donkeys!!!"

    I was trying to play off the "spread the wealth around" controversy during last year's presidential campaign. The congressman who's been really pushing for these home buyer tax credits is a Republican former real estate broker, but I blame the Democrats because they're in power.

    For the record, I'm an independent, but I usually vote Democratic. Last year I liked both Obama and McCain (it's the first time I've ever liked both parties' candidates!), but ended up voting for Obama because Sarah Palin is a crackpot.

    I'm very interested in politics, so it will work its way into my blog posts from time to time.

    Anonymous said...
    "This will be a false bottom, but the question is how long it will last."

    I hope you're right and I'm wrong.

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  10. James,

    Have you stopped taking your meds? :-)

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  11. Lost decade or much worse straight ahead. As for the people snatching up houses now - unless you are an insider at a bank that has enormous inventory piled up you only think you're getting a good deal.Lets see how you feel 3-4 years from now.
    The increase in taxes that you are seeing now at both the federal and state level is not going to make up for the amount of revenue they lost from losing tens of millions of jobs over the last 2 decades.
    This will truly be "Death by a thousand cuts".

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  12. Anonymous said...
    "James, Have you stopped taking your meds? :-)"

    Apparently.

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  13. "I hope you are right and I am wrong. Last year home prices slowed and I started getting nervous, but once the spring passed, prices started plunging again. A similar thing could happen again this year. I'm just not so sure."

    Next month will likely be higher, and perhaps the next after that, but starting around Nov (the Sept index) I feel pretty confident it will fall.

    The issue then is the second derivative. Will the fall this autum be enough to push us lower past the March 165.92 measure? Here Im not so sure. The 2nd derivative started shrinking even before the MOM went positive, and it has been basically halved in the last 3 months.

    Still if everything goes best you will see drops this fall, yet a diminishing YOY percentage means the bottom very likely could have been last March.

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  14. Also, to echo anon's statements about calling another bubble. This fall will tell us alot. If the number keeps moving higher in the autumn and winter, then yeah, its time to start worrying about a new bubble.

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  15. The latest news on property data and Home Prices should not come as a surprise and we should not begin celebrating an end to the crisis. In our article Cyclical, Seasonal and Emotional, we discussed the three critical phases of real estate selling patterns that have attributed to the housing bust.

    The latest news and public records indicate that these critical phases are performing to historical levels. That is, the summer seasonal market is showing a correction to the cyclical change that began in 2007. Now the million dollar question is, will the fall seasonal market (which affects Florida, Arizona and Nevada) continue to show recovery or will the markets pause until the next “Selling Season in 2010?”

    Our report: Housing in Crisis (published in March 2009 www.accuriz.com) addressed the broader issue of excess housing. Again, there is good news on this front. The excess housing is being absorbed at an annualized rate of about 1 million units. Having a glut of 5 million units at the end of 2008, this means we have another three to four years before the overall markets start to recover.

    Housing Recovery is the focal point here. We predict that the Northeast will continue to show stability, with modest corrections in local markets from 3% to 5% through the end of 2010. The Midwest remains strong and will experience similar stability. In the five biggest areas where excess housing still dictates selling patterns, we are predicting that Arizona will recover sooner than sections of Florida and Vegas.

    The latest news on the housing market is not a surpirse. Recovery and Stability are the focal points and we should start to see signs of this in the upcoming months.

    No one should be surprised when the next Housing Index comes out in September which will show a further strengthening of the market and continued adjustment in housing values in an upward trend. Our report Median Sales Price published in March of 2009 indicated that the overall Median Sales Price would move upward to $215,000 to $220,000 by year end. The current median sale price as reported by the Commerce Department is a $210,000, an increase of over 5% from the low of $201,400 early this year.

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  16. The fact that home in Las Vegas, Arizona, and Florida have stabilized at an all time low WHILE California homes are still taking a dive indicates to me that housing prices HAVE NOT bottomed out across the board.

    I'm not sure what cool aid some of you are drinking but there definitely seems to me a disconnect between what the data is saying and what you are seeing.

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  17. And James...do us a favour...either have these pussiefied ANONS put comments on this board with a name or boot them altogether.

    If we take the time to sign in, so should they.

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  18. PARTISAN:

    Why are you waiting? I thought you and a host of other ANONS were going to show us all up and buy already?

    What happened with that? Put your money where your mouth is already.

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  19. "I'm not sure what cool aid some of you are drinking but there definitely seems to me a disconnect between what the data is saying and what you are seeing."

    Noz - for starters, im a bear, so please dont attack me - im on your side, I want to see housing prices go down. So please no calls of "idiot" and the like - I want to have a rational discussion.

    As to what data we are seeing its the most fundamental data of all - price - which, unfortunately is going up.

    Serious question, and again, just curious here - if rising prices doesnt make you think a bottom is coming into view (not a recovery but a bottom), what will?

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  20. LATEST ANON:

    With all these other ANONS flying around, that's exactly why I suggest you sign in with a name so we know who we are addressing....it would help out enormously. Sorry to put in the same boat but it could not be helped given the ANON comments you know what I mean?

    Data was also pointing up back in 07...for a few months...look where we are now.

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  21. Noz - im pretty sure thats not correct. Heres CS10 for 2007:

    Jan 221.31
    Feb 220.46
    Mar 219.67
    Apr 218.94
    May 218.34
    Jun 217.37
    Jul 216.30
    Aug 214.63
    Sep 212.72
    Oct 209.76
    Nov 205.26
    Dec 200.67

    Same thing with the broader CS20 0 down every month. In fact, the remarkable thing about the case shiller index is its consistency. It went down every single solitary month from July 06 til May 09 - no blips, no temporary bumps - nothing.

    So given thats the case, do you want to revise your thinking?

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  22. also regarding my screen name - I have one, but I am a somewhat notorious (former) bear. I still keep up that persona - but between you and I, I still have doubts id rather not express here. Ill get a new screen name if necessary, but for now, if we can just keep up the cordial discourse, (and if all other anons could but out) I would appreciate it.

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  23. OK then how about this...when you post, just identify yourself with a temp name so we know at least who you are compared the other ANONS.

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  24. "OK then how about this...when you post, just identify yourself with a temp name so we know at least who you are compared the other ANONS."

    Fair Enough - I will post as Zippy. Thanks for meeting me half way.

    Anyway if you wouldnt mind answering the questions, I would appreciate it.

    (1) if it isnt price, what metric are you looking for before you think it might be bottom?

    (2) given that case shiller didnt go positive in 07, does that change your opinion.

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  25. ANON:

    To answer you question though....

    I still do keep with what I said:

    Actually take al look at the data leading up to 07....

    http://mhanson.com/archives/40

    Look at the foreclosures zoom up and the organic sales drop off...even as median prices were increasing up to that point.

    What we are seeing today is higher priced homes coming on the market and increasing sales prices...pure and simple. Everyone else wants to complicate the issue with other excuses but that is what is going on.

    Let me ask you...what has improved over the few months to justify such increases?

    1) Have salaries increased?

    2) Have costs of living gone down?

    3) Are more properties on the market than before in any significant amount?

    4) Has there been a huge change in unemployment?

    5) What do you think will happen if rates increase along with inflation? Do you think we're going to stay like this just like happened in Japan for the last 15 years or so? Do you think that's good?

    6) If the huge backlog of foreclosures are not an issue as some may say here, then why are banks holding onto them like an addict does to cocaine? What gives? They are already losses on their books...guess what will happen if more than a couple months of inventory floods this market?


    My point is that the major component which is having an affect on housing prices today is due to a shift in the price level of housing being sold...the lower cost homes are being taken over by the higher cost homes coming onto the market.

    And the activity and volume is so low, how can anyone make a conclusion that housing has recovered? That's ridiculous.

    Pricing today is being manipulated big time. Inflation is being kept artificially low, inventory is being kept artificially low, interest rates are being kept artificially low.

    Any business can be made to look like it's coming back up when they manipulate what's going on...Wall Street is a perfect example of that....AIG is the perfect poster child for that too...it was $13 a mere 2 weeks ago or so...now it's $47. What a joke!

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  26. That post was for Zippy by the way.

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  27. Noz - the main reason I follow case shiller is it doesnt do what median sales did in CA in 07.

    Also, back in 06, when the CS data started going negative, the bulls said it was "wrong" or "skewed" and I crucified them on it. Logic would dictate that I cannot adopt the same practices when it shows me something I do not like.

    Putting that aside, lets say a respectable case for manipulation could be made - the problem is manipulation shows the same thing as true recovery - rising prices - how can we tell which one is which?

    So again, if not price, which data point will you look to to decide a bottom is in place (not a recovery but a bottom)?

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  28. Zippy,

    I say manipulation because everything else happening around the RE market is taking a dive.

    How can you explain a rising RE market it a time when people are losing jobs, cost of living is increasing, and the country as a whole is going into a spiraling debt black hole? What makes RE special and immune to such problems?

    I personally don't feel this is a housing bottom because I don't expect it to go up anytime soon. The fact that the foundation for housing does not exist while claiming we are going back up indicates to me that it's false bottom.

    There is too much pent up inventory for this to be a bottom. Price is a very poor indicator of the real status of RE health. If tomorrow there was a moratorium on home sales costing $400K or less...what do you think will happen to median prices on the market? Go up or down?

    I also ask you....what do you think will happen if foreclosures are let lose in this market?

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  29. Noz makes some valid points. The government will do all that it can to stop values from falling. And there are people who want to own a piece of that "American Dream/Nightmare." These people will buy despite the negative financial consequences. But, artificial conditions can only work when there is significant coordination of many variables (interest rates, supply, tax incentives, loan adjustments and so on). Higher interest rates will put pressure on prices in the future. The real estate "market" will not be left to true market forces in our lifetimes. As an asset class, valuations will always be questionable.

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  30. Very interesting indeed.

    I would maybe agree there is a bottom in "what housing market is being played" and by tbhis i mean what homes the banks have on sale and those on sale by regular "owners". If you count in the housing market "not in play" namely the foreclosures not yet moved on (many folks have lived a year rent free and still await bank action) then no, the bottom is not even close. Extend and pretend in action, beware, it may color the data.

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  31. I also ask you....what do you think will happen if foreclosures are let lose in this market?

    I have no doubt RE would get crushed. However after MTM was relaxed I feel equally confident we wont see it as a letting loose - just the slow steady drip drip we have seen for 12 - 18 months though. (as an aside I work in industrial banking - I feel confident the residential guys are playing this "time drip release" perfectly).

    You did hit on one thing I do find particularly relevant - inventory. You are right - its too high. Its coming down, but its not there - yet.

    Truth be known - im one of those "within 10% is close enough" types. Maybe anon above is right -maybe there is one more year of 2nd derivative action before bottom. If so, its not the true bottom, but for me its close enough.

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  32. It seems like there always have been two modes with our economy, pre-bubble and post-bubble.

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