Monday, August 10, 2009

Freddie Mac: Housing recovery is only seasonal

Via Calculated Risk, Freddie Mac says the housing recovery is "largely seasonal."

Do you agree? Will home prices continue their decline once the spring/summer selling season is over?
Posted by at 6:38 AM
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20 comments:

  1. AnonymousAugust 10, 2009 9:34 AM

    Real estate is three things: Cyclical, Seasonal and Emotional. Currently we are faced with all three, which is a rare. There is always a seasonal uptick in sales, but expect to see delcines in the fall. http://accuriz.com/RealEstate_Reports.aspx

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  2. AnonymousAugust 10, 2009 11:30 AM

    Yep, sales will drop like a rock once the 8k stimulus is gone. It's artificially helping sales at the low end right now.

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  3. wireknobAugust 10, 2009 12:28 PM

    Even if prices have stabilized with the current, very low interest rates, prices must fall further as interest rates rise back to normal levels (i.e., when the government releases its artificial downward pressure on rates). A 2% rise interest rates over the next year or two is very likely and would cut buyers' purchasing power by almost 20%. The interest rate effect will probably hammer those segments of the market that have not "corrected" all that much over the past two years.

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  4. AnonymousAugust 10, 2009 1:22 PM

    In Canada they boast of increased sales (minus the note of decreasing in prices) The public is sold by the media and hype. The Real Estate Boards have a need to protect their employees too but at the cost of many uneducated consumers, losses on both sides.

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  5. UnknownAugust 10, 2009 3:50 PM

    yes

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  6. AnonymousAugust 10, 2009 4:10 PM

    "yes"

    hahaha! Short and to the point.

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  7. AnonymousAugust 10, 2009 4:36 PM

    Yes, it's going to continue to drop. I am a (recovered) real estate agent with a Masters in Economics from Stanford and an honorary Oxford degree in Econ. There will be a further national drop of 15-25%.

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  8. AnonymousAugust 10, 2009 4:46 PM

    interest rates up,real estate down.

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  9. AnonymousAugust 10, 2009 6:50 PM

    New MRIS stats are out.

    http://www.mris.com/reports/stats/

    Median prices in all of Northern Virginia, except PWC are up YOY. This is the first time they have all been up YOY since Mid 2006.

    Immunington median prices are now down 4% from the peak. Immundria - after a small drop last year, it gained it all back and posted a new alltime high median price for July.

    DC, and Maryland continue to lag. All are down 8% or more, YOY. So maybe Nova is done, but DC & MD still have a ways to go.

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  10. AnonymousAugust 11, 2009 9:25 AM

    "Median prices in all of Northern Virginia, except PWC are up YOY."

    What the hell are you looking at???
    Average Sold Price: $ 523,379 $ 561,516 - 6.79 %

    Average List Price for Solds: $ 549,100 $ 598,277 - 8.22 %


    -6.79% and -8.22% dont look UP YoY. You must have dropped out of school or something.

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  11. AnonymousAugust 11, 2009 1:36 PM

    MEDIANS not AVERAGES

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  12. AnonymousAugust 11, 2009 8:52 PM

    STILL NEGATIVE not POSITIVE

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  13. AnonymousAugust 12, 2009 8:57 AM

    You know, you just might be retarded. See how Arlington Alexandria, Fairfax and Loudoun are all now positive on this list.

    http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/2009/08/northern-virginia-july-housing-sales.html

    Arent you the same guy who thought Montgomery County consisted of 4 cities?

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  14. AnonymousAugust 12, 2009 9:47 AM

    There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. - Mark Twain

    Yeah I really don't think twisting the fact that the average sales prices are down -8% and still falling in NOVA make the bulls want to buy. Especially in a thread that said if anything at all shows positive figures it is strictly a seasonal fluke.

    These repetitive arguments on both sides are getting pretty stale. Its like listing to two nutjobs arguing religion, no chance in hell one is going to change the others belief, so why even try?

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  15. AnonymousAugust 12, 2009 10:51 AM

    "These repetitive arguments on both sides are getting pretty stale. Its like listing to two nutjobs arguing religion, no chance in hell one is going to change the others belief, so why even try?"

    Its all part of the cycle. Go read the entries on this blog back in Late 2005 - we had bulls arguing stats showing price drops were "a fluke" or "seasonal" or "meaningless", they would counter with "studies" showing how home prices would keep going up. By mid 2006, it was obvious to anyone with a brain, the price gains were over.

    As its now 2009 we see the same thing, but in reverse. Now its those same bears (who were mocking the bulls for dismissing the stats) saying the gains are "a fluke" or "seasonal" or "meaningless". Bears have about 9 months of denial left in the tank. After that, it will be obvious to anyone with half a brain that the price declines are over.

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  16. AnonymousAugust 12, 2009 11:22 AM

    Actually, thats a pretty good way of putting it - but I think we are already there.

    Notice how little resistance there is to the concept of "the bottom" now. Even a year ago, the great unwashed would emerge from the shadows, post anonymous catcalls, telling bulls they were delusional.

    You just dont see that much anymore, most people truly are rational, and they see the writing on the wall, just as you and I do.

    There are however - delusional outliers. On the Bullish side, there are guys like Lance and KH. They didnt see the turn, and kept arguing "its a blip" well into 2008, when they gave up.

    On the Bearish side, we have Noz and Montgomery County Anon. They are just as delusional as Lance and KH were - they will be here arguing "blip" or "dead cat bounce" for years to come.

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  17. AnonymousAugust 12, 2009 5:24 PM

    The solution to this debate is very simple:

    If you have the funds to buy a property, go ahead do it. Rates are very low.

    If you can't afford to buy, then by all means rent. Renting is much cheaper than owning right now in DC area.

    In the name God put an end to this senseless debate!!!

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  18. MartaAugust 17, 2009 4:31 AM

    taking all the mentioned points into consideration i would agree that the prices will shrink.

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  19. AnonymousAugust 17, 2009 9:33 AM

    "There are however - delusional outliers. "

    Yeah people who think its over when foreclosures in the NoVA and MoCo area are at record highs!

    "If you have the funds to buy a property, go ahead do it."

    Thats horrible advice in this market.

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  20. Canada housingAugust 18, 2009 9:09 PM

    Yeah, the prices will probably drop. The real estate market is doing quite well at them moment in the US and Canada in comparison with the last couple of months, but it is (as Freddie Mac said) very likely seasonal.

    Regards, Elli.

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