More bad news for homeowners, foreclosures keep rising:The foreclosure plague continued to devastate last month.
There were more than 360,000 properties with foreclosure filings — including default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — an increase of 7% from June and 32% from July 2008, according to RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed homes. In fact, one in every 355 U.S. homes had at least one filing during July. ...
The jump occurred as several foreclosure moratoriums phased out. They were initiated by many states to give the administration's foreclosure-prevention efforts time to work. But for many help did not come: The modification and refinancing programs have met with less success than hoped.
Where the foreclosures are:
Posts
Looking at that map, MD and North VA seem to be just as red as FL and CA. Pitty. Who wants to say its all over?
ReplyDeleteInteresting Washington Post article over the weekend:
ReplyDeleteAs Supply of Houses Shrinks, Can Price Increases Be Far Behind?
Saturday, August 15, 2009
The supply of for-sale homes in the Washington area fell in July to 5.3 months' worth, according to data from Metropolitan Regional Information Systems. "That level of supply is considered at or below equilibrium," according to the folks at Metrostudy, a consultant hired by MRIS, the local multiple listing service. And because supply is below the six-month threshold that typically marks a balanced market, they expect prices to rise soon.
"We are expecting significant -- more than 10 percent -- year-over-year increases in resale prices to begin in Loudoun in August and in [Fairfax and Arlington counties] and Prince William in September," said Ken Wenhold, director of Metrostudy's mid-Atlantic region. The report says the inventory of for-sale homes also shrank in the District and Maryland suburbs, except for Charles and Calvert counties, where it increased slightly.
Big surprise: Prince George's County could be one of the first in Maryland to recover. The supply of homes has been shrinking rapidly lately. "Prince George's could potentially approach equilibrium (where demand and supply are balanced) early next spring, an idea nearly inconceivable just last year," Wenhold said.
Not everyone agrees. A new report from the Center for Economic and Policy Research and the National Low Income Housing Coalition, "Hitting Bottom? An Updated analysis of Rents and the Price of Housing in 100 Metropolitan Areas," says home prices in the Washington area are still too far above the rent for a comparable home, and therefore home values will continue to fall. In fact, the Washington area market, extending out to West Virginia, is in for bigger losses in home equity than we experienced last year, according to study authors Danilo Pelletiere, Hye Jin Rho and Dean Baker.
Even gloomier is the prognosis released earlier this month by analysts at Deutsche Bank. According to Bloomberg News, the bank expects home prices in the United States to fall through the first quarter of 2011. Prices will fall an additional 14 percent, on average, bank analysts say. They say 48 percent of all mortgages could end up underwater -- greater than the home's value -- by then.
-- Elizabeth Razzi
Just as Red? Depends on the area.
ReplyDeleteIn FL, 1 in 154 homes is in some stage of foreclosure
In Ca, 1 in 123 homes is in some stage of foreclosure
In the whole USA 1 in 355 homes is in some stage of foreclosure.
Locally, it depends vastly upon the area...
In PWC 1 in 128 homes is in some stage of closure
InPG county, 1 in 174 homes is in some stage of foreclosure
In Montgomery Co. 1 in 388 is in some stage of foreclosure
In Arlington (AKA immunington) 1 in
1280 homes is in some stage of foreclosure.
Hey Lance,
ReplyDeleteDid you see the washington posts article like 3 or 4 days prior to the one you are talking about?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/13/AR2009081301500.html
Hey Anon 10:37. There're plenty of houses out there to chose from. I don't see why you'd care if a few more getted added to the list by way of foreclosures. The bottom line bubble heads' concern has always been 'price' ... and supply how it affected price. The news today is that even with all those foreclosures around supply is shrinking ... and prices are rising.
ReplyDeleteLance said: "The news today is that even with all those foreclosures around supply is shrinking ... and prices are rising."
ReplyDeleteLance, based on the article you cited, the news appears to be that "Not everyone agrees." Wow, what a mind-blowing revelation.
The many different variables that influence price are fluctuating so noisily that it is only a guess as to where things are heading and how long it will take to get there. Let's just agree that our own guess is as good as the next person's and wait to see what actually happens.
"... and wait to see what actually happens."
ReplyDeleteyes, I agree. the problem though is if you're in a position of wanting to buy. All these differing opinions make it harder to know if you buy now, or wait and risk paying more later. I'm sure it's a difficult position to be in.
Hey Lance, how happy are you to see Leroy eat crow as the big fall he predicted for Arlington has not only not happened, but prices have risen for the last 3 months?
ReplyDeleteAll these differing opinions make it harder to know if you buy now, or wait and risk paying more later. I'm sure it's a difficult position to be in. Gee, I'm agreeing with Lance again. I just would like to emphasize that at the end of the day, there are really two things that really matter: "Are you willing to continute to live there?" and "Can you afford to make the payments*?" One problem with the bubble is that it encouraged people to buy at any price because of the fear of being "priced out forever," and the opportunity to use runaway appreciation to pay off the mortgage through HELOC or REFI. Because really the PRICE only matters if you're selling.--Jim A.
ReplyDelete*On an actual ammortizing mortgage.
Lance, we are in the position you describe and it is very difficult, and frustrating. We have definitely benefited from waiting so far (since 2004). We continue to wait primarily because what we want, a modest single family home in a nice neighborhood, is still beyond our spending limit. It makes it easier that the decision is somewhat out of hands right now. It would be a difficult choice if we could afford what we wanted and were only struggling with the financial risks.
ReplyDeleteThe housing market turmoil also creates difficult situations for those who bought over the past few years and have lost a lot of equity or are losing their homes. It is also difficult for those who want to sell and can't figure out if they should hold out for their price, wait for prices to rise again, or cut their losses and get out before they lose more money. There are probably very few people who are enjoying this ride.
Thanks for posting the article, by the way, I had missed it.
"There are probably very few people who are enjoying this ride."
ReplyDeleteIm enjoying it. Then again, Im renting and have $150K saved for a down payment.
"I don't see why you'd care if a few more getted added to the list by way of foreclosures"
ReplyDeleteI dont care, just quoting the same source you were quoting. Showing how they flip flop from good news to bad news every other day. They have no idea what they are talking about....just like you.
"Im enjoying it. Then again, Im renting and have $150K saved for a down payment."
ReplyDeleteMe too. Then again I bought in the immunozone in 2002 for fear of being priced out forever. Even after the price drops Im still 275K above my original purchase price.
"Then again I bought in the immunozone in 2002 for fear of being priced out forever."
ReplyDeleteI didnt have that luxury. I came here in 2005. So I will wait 5 years to buy or just move away and buy in a better town with better prices.
Sounds reasonable to me. Good luck with that...
ReplyDeleteWow, glad we live and work in Pacific County WA. Foreclosures aren't quite as prevalent here.
ReplyDeleteImmunozone house doesn't sell for 3 months, price dropped $248K!!
ReplyDeletehttp://franklymls.com/AX7057894
Poor poor Arlington -- only the second best place for affluent young professionals in the US.
ReplyDeletehttp://money.cnn.com/galleries/2009/moneymag/0906/gallery.bplive_richsingles.moneymag/2.html
Anonymous said: "Poor poor Arlington -- only the second best place for affluent young professionals in the US."
ReplyDeleteBut it has its own theme song (just in case you missed it):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4T1RMuoQnKo
We've got a long way to go before we can declare any place an "immunozone". Curiously, unlike other areas around DC, it seems to be the low end of the housing market in Arlington that holds steady, and is even appreciating, while the mid-to-upper end of the market is falling.
Other Anonymous said: "Im enjoying it. Then again, Im renting and have $150K saved for a down payment."
We are in the same boat, and don't regret renting/saving for five years at all. But it would have been nice to buy at a reasonable/stable price a few years ago. Too bad that wasn't an option.
It is also difficult for those who want to sell and can't figure out if they should hold out for their price, wait for prices to rise again, or cut their losses and get out before they lose more money. Well unlike buying, I think that is a much more obvious decision. Prices may or may not be near bottom, but there's NO WAY that we will see significant real appreciation for at least 5 years IMHO. If you want to sell, there's little reason not to sell now: prices may get lower but they're not likely to go significantly higher.--Jim A.
ReplyDelete"Immunozone house doesn't sell for 3 months, price dropped $248K!!
ReplyDeletehttp://franklymls.com/AX7057894"
Gee, could this because the owner is asking close to 3million dollars for that house?
Considering he paid under $600k for the home in 2006 he must be hating himself to have to drop his asking price from 2.99mil to 2.75mil.
"Gee, could this because the owner is asking close to 3million dollars for that house?
ReplyDeleteConsidering he paid under $600k"
Well, it is pretty common for homes in DC. Generally though its people asking for just 1 million after buying their home for $100K back in 2001...but its all the same, buy and mark up your house 500% in 2 years. I think this is the end of it though, the guy at 3 million hasnt hit reality yet, just like the 1 million listers. Give em time, they will break.
"Foreclosures up 32% year-over-year"
ReplyDeletebig time ouchies!
Wonder how high up the % of forclosures year over year are gunna be next year?
I cant wait to buy in 2014 after things have corrected a bit more.
"Generally though its people asking for just 1 million after buying their home for $100K back in 2001.."
ReplyDeleteCould you find some examples of this, maybe on Frankly.
"Could you find some examples of this, maybe on Frankly."
ReplyDeleteI just grabbed the first $1M+ result on trulia...
http://www.trulia.com/property/1044943156-10705-Rock-Run-Dr-Potomac-MD-20854
and then did a tax record on it for 2001
https://www.montgomerycountymd.gov/apps/tax/ViewDetail.asp?RID=309146
So the home in 2001 was worth $138,440 and in 2009 it is worth $1.7M
I could do this all day long of course, but I will leave it up to you now that you know how to do it yourself.