Wednesday, May 24, 2006

Open Forum

Comment Away. :-) [Unfounded accusations and name calling of me or other commentators will be deleted].


  1. How is asking for sources for your post on the new home sales data an "unfounded accusation"? You can dish it out but you can't take it? Where's the open debate?

    Again, what is the source for your assertions on the new home sales data!?!

  2. David,

    Have you ever thought of doing a DC neighborhood analysis of price declines/increases as well as having a separate forum where anecdotal info. about whats going on in a particular neighborhood could be posted?

    I've been holding off buying a rowhome in Cap. Hill and would find any info. regarding whether to continue to hold off (prices decline) or buy now to be extremely helpful.

    Thanks for the blog -- your doing a public service despite what the anonymous realtors posting here call you.

  3. "How is asking for sources for your post on the new home sales data an "unfounded accusation"? "

    It is not. Thats not why I deleted that post.

    "Where's the open debate?"

    It is is open. There are still rules.

    "Again, what is the source for your assertions on the new home sales data!?!"

    Which ones? Please quote the line.

  4. "too cowardly to get a blogger account. "

    said tom dc/va, who's blogger account link reveals preceisely NO information about him.

    I think "anonymous" is no less anonymous than "tom dc/va"


  5. The Anonymous bloggers represent real estate industry interests. These guys could be:

    Real Estate Agents. NAR is having its staff people or loyal members post messages challenging David's bubble arguments. I'm dead serious about this accusation.

    Mortgage Lender Reps. This industry has billions in stake if a bubble pops in major markets. The mortgage lending guys will see fewer commissions in order to buy that nice Italian import automobile or to take exotic trips around the world. David is ruining everything for these poor lending sales guys!

    Insecure property owners. People who recently bought over-priced condo properties who are hoping to make a big profit do NOT like the BubbleMeter blog. The proliferation of bubble blogs and the media attention given to them is a large nuisance for the Property Investor/Flipper. People like David are making these poor property owners nervous.

    Libertarian/Capitalism Rules Over Everthing types who think bubbles in capitalism are perfectly fine for society. "Renters are lazy and stupid; they are just jealous of people who find success in the capitalist market economy", so says the Capitalista.

    I ask any anonymous poster to identify his or her reason for posting messages on this blog.

  6. Ihateyuppies:

    I thing your right about RE industry moles trolling the blogs and posting comments. There's a new commenter named Lara Walters on the NY Times "Walk Through" blog attacking any suggestions that the RE market is anything other milk and honey.

  7. I will be posting rules about what is fair play on this bubble blog.

    Stay Tuned!

  8. ihateyuppies

    "The Anonymous bloggers represent real estate industry interests. These guys could be: ........."

    I would not be surprised if these Anonymous bloggers are people who, are not involved in the real estate industry, have alot of time on their hands and want to vent their bitterness.

    I also hate yuppies.

  9. I'm sure NAR looks at this site for the same reason I do--humor.

    I'm not a realtor, a nervous home owner, or a jealous renter. I just read because these so many of these paranoid posts are ridiculous.

    And I'm sure Ihateyuppies thinks every suspicius person he/she sees is a goon hired by the "real estate industy" to follow him to make sure he doesn't let out the "secret" about the bubble.

  10. Ihateyuppies misses the irony of his call for the identification of all anonymous posters.

  11. All sorts of messages disappearing because they question David's general premise. Interesting development. Kind of sad that a blog needs "rules" on what is allowable. As long as it's not defamatory or insulting, what's the problem?

    Either you want a free-wheeling discussion with sharp opinions and contrasting viewpoints or you want a "guided" discussion with only certain viewpoints allowed. Simply state your preference so everyone knows what to expect.

  12. IT'S DAVID'S BLOG!!!!

    You enjoy it, or you don't. It's not a place where anyone has "rights".

    It does kind of sound like there are RE industry plants here.

    When I had a contract on a place (I backed out), I was a lot more defensive--not denying the reality of the market slowdown, but resenting being called stupid, defending my decision.

    These guys sound a lot more shrill than that.

    You're not going to be able to turn the tide, boys, but I suppose it's natural for you to dry. You're trying to stop a dam burst by plugging the hole with your finger, though. There are powers bigger than you and blogs working.

  13. I'm curious: When you backed out of your contract, did you lose your deposit or were you able to get it back?

  14. All right, you're all too smart for me. I admit it, I post under anonymous because I am in fact a real estate industry plant.

    It's true, I earn my high six figure salary from The Real Estate Industry, Inc. by monitoring this website. This is a highly important position as the posters here have made NAR, the HBs, and the Wall Street Masters of the Universe very nervous.

    Tomorrow when I give my daily briefing to POTUS, I have no choice but to inform him that David and his band of bubbleheads are singlehandedly ruining that great real estate bubble. At least one person relied upon this blog in deciding to break a purchase contract, with 10 million plus real estate sales per year, you can understand why we cannot stand for 1 person deciding not to buy. Also, I'll probably have to tell my superiors that Ihateyuppies is "in the know" on our broad scheme of infiltrating blogs. Got to go, Ben want's an update on Bryce.

  15. I got it back. Lucky, I think now they'd fight me for it. As it is, then, I think they did sell it for a little more than I was going to pay so I'd be covered, they'd have had to give it back anyway.

    Now, they wouldn't be selling it for more.

  16. Another person who fails to see that there is no distinction between anonymous and blog account with no info. And you like to believe that you're all critical thinkers? Right.

  17. David:

    You are removing legitimate questions and criticism from the blog. Why? You have never explained how your response to the recent sales data is fundamentally different from the real estate hypers you oppose.

    When I originally posted, I thought I would get a thoughtful response from you, but instead you confirmed my suspicion that you are really just a partisan in this, and not open to meaningful debate.

    And if this post has criticism that is beyond the pale, that makes very little sense. If you just would answer the original questions people would stop bothering you, and you would appear less scared and defensive. Besides, it is the honorable thing to do.

  18. what was the original question?


  19. David,

    You complain about one-sided arguments and opinions of the NAR etc. and then systematically (starting today), for some unknown reason, delete every word I write.

    I have simply asked for an explanation. You refuse to give one. I am a 25 yr investor and believe that I have something to offer here. I am totally in shock at your actions.

    Last I heard from you, you asked me to do a guest post (?). What has changed? I questioned the censorship is all.

  20. are you writing one?

  21. Well, the original question was deleted so I can't recreate it exactly. But, it basically asked what the source was for your statements explaining the increase in sales.

    One statement was "New home sales are increasing because of the price discounting on more expensive homes (in the bubble markets) and large incentives being offered by homebuilders". Do you have any data to back this up? Can you cite or link to it?

    Second thing was "price discounts on homes in the bubble markets have brought some new buyers to the table". Any data on price discounts and new buyers? Also, what is your basis for saying that this "temporarily" increased the number of new homes sold, do you have a source for this? Why is the longterm trend down if new buyers are coming into the market with incentives and discounts?

    I still don't know why you had to go and delete the post, and then delete about 20 related posts afterwards, but I think it would be a very good idea for you to respond to these types of questions rather than deleting posts.

  22. No. Not at present. I can't understand why I am being deleted out of the blue. 3 deletions so far today because my comments question the censorship.

    Is this what the rest of the board wants? Censored comments? I admit that I don't like everything I read here and am occasionally insulted, but I would rather have that then this stuff.

  23. Look, sales are increasing, because real estate is seasonal. There SHOULD be a rather large increase with spring.

    The real indicator is year-over-year. It's down.

  24. I say it's far better to be insulted while presenting a different viewpoint, rather than listening to the choir in an echo chamber.

  25. Back on topic, I don't think that defending a five-year run of 20% price appreciation and real estate as 'normal market conditions' is defensible.

    However, I don't see the market as completely liquidating, either. At least not right away.

    The mantra that "housing prices always go up" has been sold to so many over the last few years that the idea that an 8% annual drop (which is what has been happening the last 6 months) would be devastating to people unfortunate enough, such as myself, to purchase a home in the last 2 or 3 years in 'bubble markets.'

    The reality is that the housing market, and the jobs associated with the recent run-up in values is reaching 'equilibrium.' What that means is anyone's guess, but the obvious guess is that prices will come down, inventory will go up, and over-leveraged people will be in trouble.

    With that, the speculative investor class will also be punished, and there goes 30-40% of new condo sales.

    Now, you can believe that housing will fall 25% a year for 4 years if you don't own, and you can believe it will go up 25% a year for the indefinite future. Neither is unlikely; but the torrid pace is obviously stalled right now, and all the reports from the US Commerce department and NAR indicate this is indeed the case.

  26. Real estate trolls be gone!!

    This blog is for us bubbleheads to reinforce our own beliefs unencumbered by reality, and to make believe that a housing price collapse is not only possible, but even actually in progress.


  27. Put Surfer-X in "time-out".

  28. surfer-x.

    Great profile!

  29. OOPS!!

    Did I say that out loud?

  30. I think David should have a "dialouge" with the real estate industry trolls on this board. Clearly, these people have a vested interest in the RE industry whether they are employees or investors.

    If David created a BubbleMeter blog in 1999 during the stock market bubble, you would have stock brokers, mutual fund and 401K managers, and MBA Heads posting attacks.

  31. Like I said last week (without being deleted), just because you disagree with David you are not automaticlly a Troll.

  32. No. But a troll is someone who posts messages attacking the idea of the blogger. A troll is someone who posts antagonizing in an online community that has different views from the troll himself.

    This web site is a home for bubble heads. Real estate industry people who post under anonymous titles with the explicit goal of attacking the blogger and those who support the theory of bubble markets are by definition, TROLLS.

  33. That is very insightful. Stay cloistered in your own little world. Don't listen to other viewpoints.

    I don't see any blogs where everyone agrees on the future. So your's is a novel approach.

  34. Oooh - a catfight!

    >All right, you're all too smart for me. I admit it, I post under anonymous because I am in fact a real estate >industry plant

    Could be. If you stand to believe in the illusion that you'll benefit from prices going still higher.

    I've posted on this before - most of you trolls have no idea about money or wealth. You will get higher prices - priced in monopoly money. Because thats what your money will be worth, if prices go higher.

    On an abstract scale, housing is toast. It's going to be a drain on wealth for anyone who holds it now. Because the pricing power of money is going to fall faster than the prices of houses can rise. In fact if prices just hold, you will lose wealth at least at the inflation rate. And that's without taking into account the cost of interest, taxes etc.

    Most of you trolls dont believe in what you post.

    a)If houses are really valuable, David can do nothing to influence the price. So you guys are wasting your time trying to discredit David.

    b)If housing is a just a pyramid scheme, then you just need to find a bigger fool to dump your house on to make money. In that case, David is trying to prevent people from being the fools who get left holding the bag. And discrediting David will benefit you. It will keep the flow of fools coming in.

    If you think (a) is right, you are wasting your time.

    If you feel (b) is right, you are admitting to yourself that housing is a Ponzi scheme. You just want everyone else to believe it's NOT a Ponzi scheme

    The problem for you is that even if you discredit David, housing is not going to go up. You have just run out of fools. You are yet to realize your predicament.

    >I'm sure NAR looks at this site for the same reason I do--humor.
    >I'm not a realtor, a nervous home owner, or a jealous renter. I just read because these so many of these >paranoid posts are ridiculous.

    You must not be a "nervous home owner". But a "non-nervous" home owner. Clever.
    But still a home-owner. Why give up the possibility of making a fast buck, eh?

    Oh, and he who laughs last, laughs best.

  35. Reality check needed here.

    Alot of postings stating that Real estate industry people are posting attacks against the bubble theory.


    A small percentage of the DC metro area view in this blog. Second and more important people in the real estate industry are selling housing units. How is posting statements that the housing bubble is non-sense going to motivate the viewers to buy houses? Let's face it we are a tough audience. I think a person in the real estate industry is going to focus his efforts on media the reaches a broader audience in hopes in finding easy sells.

    The bottom line is he won't find many buyers here, and certianly by just critizing any remarks that do support the bubble theory.

  36. i really enjoy hearing a bunch of people complain and attack each other on this blog.

  37. OOOPS!

    What I meant to say is there is alot of postings accussing people in the real estate industry are going to this blogsite specifically to dispell any theories about the housing bubble.

    Anyway these accusations are nonsense!

  38. bibba,

    Your rambling post makes no sense.

    I've previously questioned David’s posts when they've seem appallingly subjective and unsubstantiated. Bubbleheads then attacked me as a real estate troll.

    The truth is that I have no financial interest in real estate. In addition I think that DC prices will decrease 15-25% over next few years. Essentially, David and I agree in the end result, but we disagree about where we are in the process, and how we are going to get there. Let me give you an example:

    Lets say, for instance, David posts: The sun rises in the east each morning because giant monkeys on Uranus pull up the sun with a complex system of ropes and pulleys.

    Then say, for instance, I respond to David's post by saying there are no such monkeys, the ropes don't exist, and the no pulleys are large enough to lift the moon.

    Note, we don't disagree on the conclusion that the sun rises in the east, we only disagree on the underlying details. Nevertheless, commenters like you would attack me for being in denial of the sun rising in the east. I know some people here refuse (or are unable) to make these distinctions, i.e., being critical of anonymous posters while they themselves post under meaningless nicknames, but I hope that this example helps.

    I find many of these postings here to be completely ridiculous, and I will criticize as they deserve. That doesn't no mean I am "in denial" or a "bitter" homeowner. As I said, I anticipate price decreases..

    Perhaps you and the others should think more carefully before name calling and labeling people as trolls, it only makes you look more narrow minded, and undercuts the credibility of your posts.

  39. David,

    Don't let the turkeys get you down. I suspect the number of attacks is proportional to the amount of fear in the market now.

  40. What attacks? I don't see anything other than constructive criticism - half of which has been gratuitously deleted.

  41. As someone who is posting anonymously, let me make the distiction between Anonymous and screen name. With a screen name, your comments are traceable to your online identity. You must argue consistently and cogently and you can be questioned about something you said a few days ago or a few posts ago. Not so being anonymous. You can put forward an argument, and then knock down your own straw man.

    Try being intellectually genuine. Nobody wants to know your name, address and phone number. We just want to know that your bull$hit is honest and consistent.

    As an aside to David, as the MODERATOR of your blog, you can have whatever content your heart desires, but it is much more interesting when these RE shills are allowed to post and then refuted. Leave the intelligent but misguided posts up, and remove all the fluff. (both pro and con). Allow the trolls to get back to guarding bridges. Just my 2 cents.

  42. Surfer-X,

    Do you also post on as Surfer-X?

    BTW - your profile is one of the better things I have read in a while. You are a true master of the art of self-deprecating humor.

  43. "You must argue consistently and cogently"

    This is not a trial. There are no musts. We express our opinions. I understand being irritated by misstated facts, but if someone here wanted me to do research to back up my opinion, I'd laugh. If you don't believe me, on an opinion blog, it's up to you to refute it.

    Because I'm just posting, not trying to win a contest, or really try to convince the broader community.

    You can ask questions, but you can't on a blog really demand that people "prove" something to you. If your refutation moves them, they'll respond in kind, if not, they won't.

    Lots of huff and puff--neither side is going to blow this house down. Things will unfold regardless of what we say here.

  44. It does seem possible that there are real estate dependant people trying to refute the bubble idea on this and other blogs.
    1) Buyer confidence is an important component of real estate prices and sales. The more negative information available, the greater the decrease in buyer confidence.
    2) Declining sales mean declining earnings for agents (real estate, mortgage, etc.)
    3) If a person has a large exposure in real estate (big mortgage, new purchase, investor), then they are feeling cornered right now. Cornered people (and animals) are known to fight fiercely in spite of great odds.

  45. Or maybe some people just don't buy into the "sky is falling" mentality of some bubbleheads. Stubborn people wedded to an idea are also known to fight fiercely in spite of any contrary evidence and despite leaps of logic.

    Just a thought.

  46. The reoccurring theme that The Industrial Housing Complex monitors and posts on this blog as a strategy to suppress the bursting of a bubble is one of the dumbest ideas floating around this blog.

  47. d in dc,

    I do know that people are coming to this blog from organizations such as homebuilders, mortgage companies, real estate companies, etc.


  48. david said
    "I do know that people are coming to this blog from organizations such as homebuilders, mortgage companies, real estate companies, etc."

    We knew for certain the people from the real estate industry have visited this blogsite. Do we knew for sure tha those people posted comments that contradict the bubble premise?

  49. There's a big difference between random, bored employees surfing the web at the office, and housing industry employees making a planned and concerted effort to attempt to rebut the bursting bubble premise. Based upon a number of postings on your blog, I've seen that people here think that that the real estate industry has engaged in a widespread strategy of monitoring bubble blogs, and refuting bubbleheads as an attempt to prevent the public from being informed of the current market.

  50. "We knew for certain the people from the real estate industry have visited this blogsite. Do we knew for sure tha those people posted comments that contradict the bubble premise?"

    We do not. Although I will investigate. :-)