Friday, August 12, 2005

The Bubble Recession

Once the housing bubble pops, a recession is almost inevitable. Here are the factors that will contribute to a future recession:

  • High & Rising Energy Costs
  • Federal Debt & Deficit
  • Coming Housing Bust
  • High Consumer Debt
  • Large negative Trade Balance
  • Future Offshoring
  • Security Costs

So are there bright spots? Corporate profits are doing well, productivity is up. Nevertheless, the overwhelming negative economic factors will shortly ( within a year or so ) lead us into a recession. The unsustainable nature of our economy is astounding.

8 comments:

  1. The end result of the bubble are so complex and varied it is hard to see what will happen.
    High energy costs, debt, security costs
    trade imbalances. They all could spell disaster. I guess time will tell. Be vigil, careful and do not take anything for granted.

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  2. how soft in MD ?
    loudon co VA inventory has quadrupled

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  3. RE are somewhat less frenzied then earlier this year. Inventory is up somewehat. Not as much as Loudon County, VA.

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  4. You left out the falling dollar,
    social security coming due and
    medicare...The perfect financial
    storm!...

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  5. ah yes- I forgot about social security, medicare and soaring health care costs- a perfect storm? YES- but the powers may be say 'Don't worry and be happy'...... where is A. greenspan when I need him- or GW Bush?

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  6. n va:

    I just did a search and found 560 properties for sale in Leesburg and 510 in neighboring Ashburn. Seems like a lot for two small towns.

    By the way, this site lists homes with the street address (unlike realtor.com), so you can cross-reference listing prices with last-sale prices on the Loudoun County assessor's site. It's interesting to see how many properties have been owned for less than 2 years, and the markup that some people are looking for -- 100% or more in just 2-3 years in some cases.

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  7. Great site. Couldn't agree with you more. The next president to steal, er win in 2008 is going to have buckets full of dubya's economic turd blossoms to shovel...

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  8. "The next president to steal, er win in 2008 is going to have buckets full of dubya's economic turd blossoms to shovel... "

    Not only Dubya's economic turds, but those of his hack and lackey- Alan Greenspan- this so called 'libertarian' leanings amount to nothing more then economic Fascism.

    "The unsustainable nature of our economy is astounding."

    What an understatement- however Greenspan has shown his evil brilliance in prolonging an unsustainable situation. However it will all come down- and Bush, along with Greenspan will be remembered in not so eloquent terms.

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