Monday, August 15, 2005

The Perfect Storm

A perfect storm is happening that will cause the popping of the bubble ( significant price declines in the bubble markets). What are the factors causing this perfect storm?

  • New bankruptcy laws ( October 17th)
  • Huge amount of consumer debt
  • Minimum credit card payments may double
  • Rising short term interest rates
  • End of the summer buying season.
  • High and rising energy prices ( ~ $65 a barrel for oil)
  • Rising inventory ( part of the stagnation trend )
  • Rising awareness of the housing bubble

The bubble is about to pop in the bubble cities. Stagnation will be followed by price declines. Get ready.

23 comments:

  1. I agree with what you are saying, but you come off sounding like someone that has an agenda. The sky is falling.... the sky is falling. People don't want to hear someone who thinks they know it all. State your case and let your readers decide

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  2. It's a blog. Say what you want and how you want. I still believe we are 6-18 months away. But I hope you are right.

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  3. "that has an agenda"

    I do have an agenda. It is based upon my strong opinion that there is a housing bubble in the bubble markets and that there will be significant price declines in these locales.

    "know it all"

    I readily admit that I do not know it all. There are many others more educated in this matter then me.

    The sky is falling for those who are banking on price appreciation to keep them from losing money. No, I do not believe the US is going into a depression. The US is headed into a recession.

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  4. Many have a vested interest in propping up this bubble for as long as they possibly can. But like all speculative events, it will come to an end. IMHO it will be a violent and swift implosion-it may me in October, in 2006, 2007 or 2008, but the sucking sound will sweep into the gutter all the garbage this bubble has created.

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  5. check out my blog on The Stock Market...


    yourstockpicker.blogspot.com

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  6. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  7. I agree with you. All the doubters seem to think that people really expect the market to pop, as in an instantaneous burst that will be immediately recognizable. But that's not what will happen. I like to compare it to the start of a drought. At first it just seems like it hasn't rained for a few months. And then, after a year without rain, you know for sure, you're in a drought. Only in looking back over time can you tell when a drought began, and it's the same with a bubble pop. Only after many months, or more than a year, can you see exactly when it began. Until then, we'll all keep watching the skies. Cole @ BigHousingBubble

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  8. October it is...

    Congrats David. Your blog is getting more traffic every day.

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  9. David is right. The sky is falling. A lot of CHUMPS are going to get hurt and it will happen sooner than later. Seems that this blog is just calling it as it is seen. If one can not see that take another hit on the bong....

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  10. I call it as I see it. Thanks all for the words of encouragements.

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  11. Yes, but the national production of rubber baby buggy bumpers may far exceed international demand and cause a surplus, plummeting prices and cutting of rubber baby buggy bumper manufacturing jobs. An unemployed Sally will have to sell sea shells by the sea shore to make ends meet or she will not be able to buy her new castle.

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  12. Carrolton WainwrightAugust 17, 2005 10:36 AM

    I'm so tired of liberals like you who are still probably complaining about everything that has happened since the 2000 election. If Gore had carried his home state of Tennessee, he would have won the election.

    The housing market has never been stronger! The mortgage industry has never been healthier! Personal home ownership has never been higher! The market is thriving and will be solid for the foreseeable future.

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  13. Carrolton,

    Keep drinking the kool aid and watching the tube.

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  14. Carrolton,

    is that the official line from the minister of Propaganda Karl Rove? or that of the political hack libetarian turned neo fascist Alan Greenspan?

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  15. Carrolton WainwrightAugust 18, 2005 11:46 AM

    David, Skytrekker,

    My Heavens, I realize that my comments regarding the 2000 election were inflammatory, but I had no idea that I was entering such an intellectual full moon. Its disappointed that the same leftist, PC thought that has corrupted academia, has seen fit to contaminate discourse related to the strength of the US economy.

    There were many more people in poverty in America's cities after the great democratic War on Poverty. Time was in Appalachia that people starved due to a lack of food, now they suffer from obesity. Would you like to set government price controls for housing? Then march on the logical progession to a series of five year plans? Or perhaps do you feel guilty about your own financial success and feel the need to express your guilt with others? Why else would the good fortune of the real estate/housing industry been so upsetting to you?

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  16. "Would you like to set government price controls for housing?"

    No. The government should not have created such a huge credit bubble.

    "Or perhaps do you feel guilty about your own financial success and feel the need to express your guilt with others?"

    Not at all.


    "Why else would the good fortune of the real estate/housing industry been so upsetting to you?"

    It is upsetting to me because:
    1) The boom will cause a bust and a significant recession
    2) Takes up too much money from investment in export industries
    3) Debt is being bought increasingly by foriegners. ( We don't want to be paying off the forigners for decades to buy some over priced houses and plasma TVs, and cars)
    4) Housing is becoming unaffordable for many more people.
    5) Flippers have been making lots of money for very little work

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  17. "The government should not have created such a huge credit bubble."

    I do remember the soldiers and Alan Greenspan's Secret Police coming into my home and forcing me to buy another house.

    Maybe you should learn to take some personal responsibility for your own life rather than criticizing home buyers.

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  18. Well Listen to the local yokel yodel.

    "The government should not have created such a huge credit bubble."

    You are a mentally deficient mustard sucking nitwit. The inability of the lower IQs to make it in the financial world is not the fault of the "flippers" or the foreigners with their plasma TVs and cars. The morons living above their means have caused this problem.

    Carrolton Wainwright was off the mark in only 1 statement...

    "Or perhaps do you feel guilty about your own financial success and feel the need to express your guilt with others?"

    If you had been successful, you would not have enough time to infect the rest of us with your regurgitated babble as you would be tending to your many properties and spending the loads of cash. When you reach a level of maturity in your career and life enough to afford to join the ranks of homeowners, then talk to me. Until then, keep paying my mortgage rental boy.

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  19. Well I guess it will all come out in the wash in the end

    the evils of capitalism are exposed when greed, overt materialism, and expoitation of the little people have reached a rubicorn. And then the system is purged and corrected. Happened in 1929- will happen again.That time could be near- stay tuned.

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  20. You are all fools. Exploitation of the "Little People." You naysayers are the exploiters. Your timid, lying morality. All people including the little people have a choice.

    We choose to participate in the system, to what degree or to leave the sysem all together. Every person that has an ARM or an interest only loan has chosen with their own free will to enter into that financial arrangement. Anyone who has purchased an "overpriced" home has done so on their own free will. Have some people made decisions that may prove to be less than optimal in the near term or long run, perhaps, but who are you and I to judge.

    When you make your comments that the bubble is going to burst, the sky is falling, repent now - the end is near, you are seeking to exploit all those who have made decisions contrary to your viewpoint. In a typical liberal fashion, you are seeking to remove the responsbility that people have for their own lives and place it in the hands of the government, and then blame the government for people's difficulties. STOP turning people into victims and blaming them for the decisions they make.

    Take a look into your own soul before you start complaining about greed, over materialism and exploitation. If you're not willing to improve yourself and your life, don't criticize other who are.

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  21. "Flippers have been making lots of money for very little work "

    Dont get mad that the flippers are smarter and have bigger balls than you.

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  22. I never cease to be amazed by people who think they can pull off the Jedi Mind Trick. "The market is stronger than ever. You are not alarmed." Whether or not there is a bubble may be a debatable point, but to call this market strong denies reality. That's a statement that may have been true a few months ago, but it certainly is not the case today.

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  23. Don't bring the Jedi into this, they're good people

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