Wednesday, March 01, 2006

The Battle of the 4Q 2005 OFHEO Data

Some of the housing industrial complex will be using the using the 4Q 2005 OFHEO numbers to say 'long live the boom.' The numbers are very favorable to the housing boom cheerleader. For example:

Average U.S. home prices increased 12.95 percent from the fourth quarter of 2004 through the fourth quarter of 2005. Appreciation for the most recent quarter was 2.86 percent, or an annualized rate of 11.4 percent. The increase during 2005 is similar to the revised increase of 12.55 percent for the year ended with the third quarter of 2005, showing no evidence of a slowdown.


It will be difficult for us bubbleheads to claim that the numbers lend weight to our view of the housing market. This is a major piece of evidence that will get the housing cheerleaders all riled up. Get ready! We have another battle! We will win the war but this battle seems lost.