The main numbers for YoY Price appreciation one sees in the OFHEO data shows that the rate of YoY price appreciation increased in 4Q 2005 slightly compared to 3Q 2005 [this uses a "mix of data from refinancings and house purchase transactions"]:
4Q 2005 YoY Home Price Appreciation: 12.95%
3Q 2005 YoY Home Price Appreciation: 12.02%
However:
4Q 2005: "Changes in the mix of data from refinancings and house purchase transactions can affect HPI results. An index using only purchase price data indicates somewhat less price appreciation for U.S. houses between the fourth quarter of 2004 and the fourth quarter of 2005. That index increased 10.81 percent, compared with 12.95 percent for the HPI."
3Q 2005: "Changes in the mix of data from refinancings and house purchase transactions can affect HPI results. This HPI report includes an index that is calculated using only purchase price data. The index shows an increase of 10.95 percent for the U.S. between the third quarter of 2004 and the third quarter of 2005."
Solely using the Purchase Price Data:
4Q 2005 YoY Home Price Appreciation: 10.81%
3Q 2005 YoY Home Price Appreciation: 10.95%
Thus, if we look at the just the purchase data the rate of YoY price appreciation stayed about the same in 4Q 2005 compared to 3Q 2005.
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Interesting. Can you produce a several-years-long graph with monthly plots of non-refi sales prices? I'd like to get a feel for what the seasonal "shape" of the graph is, and compare this year's graph to it. (If the boom peaked in, say, August of '05, we'd still see YoY increases.)
ReplyDeleteIt could be done relatively easily. Good idea.
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