Thursday, March 30, 2006

Corner in Northern Virginia

Right near the Bubblicious Bench.

46 comments:

  1. That's Merrifield. It's great place to walk to the Dunn Loring metro, or get mugged by one of the handful of gangs that lurk the area. And there is fine dining near by;you can walk about half a mile to the shark's club.

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  2. Look at those spacious back yards! The beautiful brick on just one side!

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  3. I see new homes in the 900k price range way out in the burbs that still only have brick on the front of the house, siding on the back and sides. sheesh.

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  4. Nice-

    I love row condos for that claustrophobic jail feel. Well, at least they make McMansions look good.

    BubbleTrack.blogspot.com

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  5. I love row condos for that claustrophobic jail feel

    People who buy $400,000 dollar condos and work everyday in a cubicle are living in a jail.

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  6. What is the point of this picture posting?

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  7. to show whats its like in Northern Virginia on some non major intersections.

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  8. Doubting ThomasMarch 30, 2006 3:30 PM

    Three open house signs in a development of several hundred townhouses is proof of a bubble?

    Keept trying bubba.

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  9. doubting thomas,

    WRONG. All the signs point to a section of about 70 housing units.

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  10. I'm with doubting thomas. What's the big deal with 3 signs. I don't understand your statement
    "All the signs point to a section of about 70 housing units" At this point all I see is 3 signs to a housing development. This could be happening any time since it was built until 2004. In fact there has been two recessions with massive layoffs and multiple houses in area have been up for sell. The bottom line is this photo does not convince me that there is a hugh sell off.

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  11. "The bottom line is this photo does not convince me that there is a hugh sell off. "

    It is not supposed too.

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  12. Anonymous posts are not allowed. You do not have to register but please choose other and then a screename. It makes it easier to respond to people. Thank you!

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  13. What is this photo telling me?
    Your answer "to show whats its like in Northern Virginia on some non major intersections". What does this have to do with housing bubbles? This picture could have been taken any time from 1986-2006.

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  14. Yeah, David- you need to back up your blog postings, or your blog is going to be a "Chicken Little" blog. If you claim there are 70 units available, what are the MRIS details?

    Seriously, I'm begining to wonder if you are just Scrooge and are looking for facts to support your premise that there is a big bubble.

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  15. 'If you claim there are 70 units available, what are the MRIS details?"

    "WRONG. All the signs point to a section of about 70 housing units."

    What I meant was that there are about 70 housing units in this area. 3 of them are for sale. Thats all.

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  16. Its a picture!

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  17. This picture seems to have struck a nerve (or should we say some nervousness). I think housing bulls are starting to get agitated at pictures like this because they now realize the bursting of this bubble is finally upon us.

    Pretending like you don't know why this picture was posted or demanding proof of the number of housing units in the development doesn't change the fact that the bubble implosion is going to be a doozy.

    You either take steps to prepare for it or not, but denying it won't make it go away.

    Who knows, maybe they'll be 4 or 5 signs on this corner next week.

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  18. "Its a picture"
    OK! Now has this blog site has become a place that shows pictures of "for sale signs"...This looks like the real estate section of the washington post instead of a blogsite dedicated to signs of a housing bubble (or busting bubble). The bubblicious bench in Dunn Loring..now that's a picture that should be in a housing bubble blogsite.

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  19. Burn on the panicking pseudobulls.

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  20. Virginia InvestorMarch 30, 2006 9:06 PM

    3 out of seventy does not a bursting buble make.

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  21. Quote from The Running Man : "You thought you were pretty funny out there on the grid didn't you (speculator/flipper) bitch? Well, how come you're not laughing now?"

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  22. virginia investorMarch 30, 2006 10:38 PM

    buzz kill,

    appropriate name for you. A good number of people have made a ton of dough in the last 5 to 10 years.
    (or 25, in my case)

    Hate to burst your bubble, but a downturn ain't going to inflict much damage. Keep on renting; I always like good tenants but rarely have a vacancy.

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  23. Misery LOVES Company in the Housing(Hosing)market and other Ponzi schemes. While they're Pumping UP the Racket to get YOU IN, they're Slyly sneaking OUT the BACKDOOR before it's THEIR Blood 3 inches Deep in the Streets. And of Course, the old Kennyboy Lay type NEVER KNEW that there WAS CROOKS in the His ENRON Business WHEN he told his Emloyees NOW is the Time to Buy..Buy..Buy more Worthless STOCK while he was Cashing OUT!...Spare Us the Bull's "All is Well Song and Dance" Dico Fever Chants.

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  24. Hey virginia investor, I am a naive school boy from the midwest and I always believe everything I read on the internet. Please, tell me more about all your money and houses and such, and please, be explicit.

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  25. I have been driving a cab for 23 years and own my own home outright. I play a game with myself as I work in Houston. I count for sale signs as I enter a neighborhood. All I have to say is that the numbers are stunning, hands down there are more than in the 90's. Most of the time I'm in better shape than the people I pick up, and thats scary.

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  26. virginia investorMarch 31, 2006 7:29 AM

    Hey Buzz Kill,

    Let's just say I am comfortable. Don't want to be accused of bragging.....and then be called a liar, shill ,realtor etc.

    been there..done that

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  27. It's more than just this one picture. This is just a little bit of anecdotal evidence. It's not as if anyone is saying that this picture is the sole proof that there is a bubble. Geez people... It is interesting that a year ago you didn't even see signs, now you do. Obviously something has changed.

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  28. virginia investorMarch 31, 2006 9:36 AM

    Inventory levels of the previous few years were an anomoly- way out of wack on the low side. Thus, I don't think it is a useful comparison.

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  29. Doubting ThomasMarch 31, 2006 9:53 AM

    Ah, so it's 70 units! With 3 for sale signs outside. So because about 4% of the units in this development are for sale, therefore this is proof of a housing bubble.

    Like I said, keep trying bubba.

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  30. I know this area very well. It's bubbling with speculators. The picture of the bench gives housing bubble watchers a view of another bubble area.

    The area is not family friendly, there are gangs, the only place you can walk to is a pool hall called the shark club.

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  31. The housing bulls blanketing this blog are just one more sign that things are getting bad for real estate people.

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  32. Also, I know two guys, both engineers that own a condo in the Westbriar subdivision solely for investment reasons.

    I tried to buy a unit, for living in, in 2004 and was outpriced. The guy won offered 22% above the asking price. That's when I decided to sit this crazy train out.

    Like half of my friends who are professionals and rent; if the prices don't't fall, I'm going to move where the living is cheaper.

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  33. Virginia investorMarch 31, 2006 2:34 PM

    arlingtonva,

    I am not a bull or bear, just a prudent investor. As far as I know, and David can correct me, all opinions are welcome here.

    BTW, look at historical 10 year inventories and then extrapolate for population growth.

    Sorry you have to leave the area.

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  34. this blog is starting to suckMarch 31, 2006 3:24 PM

    Sorry you have to leave the area.

    You're an arrogant prick

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  35. virginia investor,

    We all know that the shortage of inventory over the past few years was an anomoly. To understand why there is a bubble, one has to look a little deeper into why the shortage of inventory occurred: speculation. Now that we are returning to a normal market, speculation is going bye bye. Now that speculation is leaving, prices will return to normal relationships with rents and income as well.

    What, did you think we would only return to normal in terms of inventory and sales only, without a return to normal in the other aspects of real estate as well (affordability, price/income ratios, price/rent ratios, etc)? I think you should look into this a little deeper.

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  36. virginia investor,

    let me guess. you just quit your "day job" a few years ago to join the RE boom after seeing Donald Trump on a late-night infomercial on Lifetime. Keep on investing. By the way, I've got some great swamp land in Florida in need of a suckerrrr errrr investor. Wanna buy?

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  37. Who does that f*cking Vagina Investor think he is coming onto our blog and trolling like a 16 year old hooker? There are plenty of Daddy Warbucks blogs around, why the f*ck does he need to be here with us bitter, jealous, permarenters?

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  38. virginia investorMarch 31, 2006 6:43 PM

    Steinravnik,

    I believe that I am the one who pointed out the mcEarney site showing 10 year inventory, Please correct me if I am wrong.

    Ah, no. I've been an investor for almost 25 years. Yes, i have been insulted on this blog before. The pervasive immaturity (my original term BTW) is unbelieveable. I don't think i acted in such a manner in my EARLY 20's or teens, for that matter.

    No trolling here boys and girls - just real life experience.

    Stein, you disapoint me. The rest don't surprise me.

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  39. virginia investorMarch 31, 2006 7:21 PM

    Steinravnik,

    Read my past posts if you want (Ben's Blog), you will see that I have been expecting a correction since 2002. I am just somewhat more intellectual in my observations than some on this blog.

    David, it is posts like those above (crude, rude, ignorant and immature) that continue to lower the bar and drive the genuine debate to other sites.

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  40. virginia investor,

    Fair enough, I won't make assumptions about your RE investment experience, because really, I don't know.

    So, what are your thoughts on how the correction is going to be then?

    I do think photos like the one that started this post are interesting. Nothing wrong with a little anecdotal evidence. No one is saying that this is the sole proof of a bubble. That is what pissed people off, you coming in here and acting in an immature fashion about a d@mn photo. It's just a photo. Get over it.

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  41. virginia investorApril 01, 2006 10:29 AM

    steinravnik,

    I don't think I said anything "immature" about the photo. Just pointed out that 3 out of 70 is not doomsday.

    Anyway, my thougts on the market (bubble) are the same that they have been since 2002 - i.e. a correction is coming.

    I have only past experience to go by. Here, in D.C., the market topped in 1990 after several years of (what might, in hindsight, be called excessive exhuberance).

    Condo's proceeded to drop as much as 35% while single family dropped 25%. That was my personal experience.

    If history predicts future; it will take 10 years to get back to today's prices. That said, I am no soothsayer. It is an educated guess on my part.

    I still believe that there are good deals to be found. It takes time and energy and a certain amount of guts. Otherwise people can just wait and follow the herd.

    Please review my comments on the photo. All mine are attributed.

    I don't care if you believe my experience or not. My insight may prove helpful, however. I can pretty much judge most posters' experience, or lack thereof, just by reading their comments.

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  42. virginia investor,

    Your idea of a downturn sounds reasonable, I believe it will be more severe than the last downturn in 1990, simply because this run up was about 3 times as big. How severe? I don't know, but more.

    My guess is the overall market in DC will drop by 40-50%, with SFH dropping less and condos more.

    Doomsday is relative. Will this downturn be doomsday for me. Hardly. Will it be for Joe Schmore with 100% financing and IO ARM that bought last May? Yes. Will it be doomsday for average Joe citizen? More so than most people think.

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  43. The dirty little f*cking secret is that the coming crash aint gonna be sh*t. It'll be Y2f*ckingK all over again but without the left over water and batteries that could be used later. The US economy is big, slow and diverse beyond f*cking belief, and some prices in some areas may come down 10% eventually, big f*cking deal; the Fed aint raising rates much, liquidity will remain insane, and unemployment is way f*cking low - and why wouldn't it be as cheap as we have sold ourselves and as encumbered as we are, we are little more than indentured f*cking slaves, renter and homeowner alike. And don't even start with that Tipping Point psycho-f*cking-slobber; "Oh, Honey, pack up the kids while I pack all our sh*t into the U-Haul cause we're selling the house since all signs point to a top in the market. You'll love the month-to-month rental I've arranged."

    F*CK!!!

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  44. Well, DC has already dropped 10%, so I guess this is the bottom!

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  45. I wish that were true Mr.Pantystain Ravenick, but sadly it's complete f*cking bullshit. Prices rose 20.6 f*cking percent in DC in '05. I realize you're clinging to current prices off the high from last summer, but it's a sign of how f*cking sad this market is that we delude ourselves with a made-up language only spoken by us bubbleheads. Talk to me about "dropped 10%" when you can insert the term "year over year" in that phrase, ok sport? Jesus f*cking christ, when Boston Massivetwoshits dropped 0.2% YoY just recently you'd have thought we just caught and disembowled Osama Bin F*cking Laden. Here's some news you can use: A 0.2% drop aint sh*t. A small decrease over a period of years is what bloated bonger boomers would call a soft f*cking landing. Prices in some DC 'hoods have tripled in 5 years. You think anyone cares about giving back 3 or 5 or even 10% YoY? F*CK NO. Zip, nada, No one. And another sad f*cking fact is that the so-called ARM reset catastrophe that will supposedly fill homeless shelters with the emaciated skeletons of over-extended borrowers and their hideous spawn aint gonna amount to sh*t either. Add maybe 1% per year to inventory for the next 3 years. That's gonna cause blood to run in the f*cking streets? You're sh*tting me, right?

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  46. Surfer X

    Dude! You don't need all those "F words" to get your message across. All those "F words" do is make you look like a jerk and degrade this blogsite severely.

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