In this chart 100 represents the average sales price for Northern Virginia for March for a given year. The 100 figure is the base price for the housing index. Hence, if the average sales price was 300K in March 1999 and had risen to 315K by April 2005 the price index would be 105 [ [(315 /300) * 100] for April.The current price index, the yellow line, is much weaker in terms of price appreciation then the previous two years.
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YoY negatives may happen by April.
ReplyDeleteThe first time people read about YoY negatives, the downhill slide is really going to pick-up steam.
ReplyDeletenotice the divergence starts in December.
ReplyDeletesteinravnik,
ReplyDeleteThanks. Your site has lots of quality information. We should coordinate some efforts.
Yeah, it's weaker. But it's still up. And if you put the three together, with March 03=100, Feb 06 would be at about 131.3--31% growth in three years.
ReplyDeleteWill YOY growth go negative in March or April or May? Quite possibly, or even probably. But for someone who bought the average house in NOVA in March 03 to lose money, the market would have to go down almost 25%.
Again, possible. And, according to many on this site, probable (or do many on this site think it's a certainty?).
FWIW.