Monday, March 20, 2006

Northern Virginia Average Housing Sales Price Index

In this chart 100 represents the average sales price for Northern Virginia for March for a given year. The 100 figure is the base price for the housing index. Hence, if the average sales price was 300K in March 1999 and had risen to 315K by April 2005 the price index would be 105 [ [(315 /300) * 100] for April.

The current price index, the yellow line, is much weaker in terms of price appreciation then the previous two years.


  1. YOY negatives possible by May? How could that be? Real estate always goes up, right?

  2. YoY negatives may happen by April.

  3. The first time people read about YoY negatives, the downhill slide is really going to pick-up steam.

  4. notice the divergence starts in December.

  5. That is very interesting. This index goes in synch with the average sales price, which basically flat-lined from July through December, and has declined since December.

    Also, I've updated the graphs on my site with data all the way back to Jan. 1997. Gives a great glimpse into the state of the market before the bubble.

  6. steinravnik,

    Thanks. Your site has lots of quality information. We should coordinate some efforts.

  7. Yeah, it's weaker. But it's still up. And if you put the three together, with March 03=100, Feb 06 would be at about 131.3--31% growth in three years.

    Will YOY growth go negative in March or April or May? Quite possibly, or even probably. But for someone who bought the average house in NOVA in March 03 to lose money, the market would have to go down almost 25%.

    Again, possible. And, according to many on this site, probable (or do many on this site think it's a certainty?).