Friday, April 07, 2006

Major Breaking News: March Numbers for Northern Virginia

The Northern Virginia Realtors Association (NVAR) have some of their March numbers out. The linked pagesare pdf. The below information it from Ben's Jones is Housing Bubble Blog

The following are single family homes, inventory numbers are year over year:

Arlington County

Active listings up 274.4%,

with the median down to $650,000 from the $669,154 high in 2005.

Alexandria City

Active listings up 390.3%, with the median flat and average price down.

Falls Church City

Active listings up 291.7%, and the median is higher with only one home sold under $500,000.

Fauquier County

Active listings up 204.3%, with a median at $390,000, down from $419,950 in 2005.

Fairfax County

Active listings up 496.4% with the median and average price down from the 2005 highs.

Loudoun County

Active listings up 434.7% with a year to date decrease in contracts of 23.5%, The median is down $5,000, even with triple or double digit declines in price ranges beneath $500,000.

Prince William County

Active listings up 497.2%, with a flat median price even with big declines in price ranges below $300,000.Compared to 2005, contracts are down 26.4%, year to date.

The only two condo and co-op reports were pulled up; Loudon County which saw an increase in active listings of 608.5% and a decline of year to date contracts of 21.3%. And Prince William County saw an increase in active listing of 800% and a 16.3% decline in year to date contracts.

These number are incredible. Inventory is exploding and the median price is falling in many of the Northern Virginia jurisdictions. This is major news in the Washington, DC bubble zone. The spring season will not save this bubble.

19 comments:

  1. Without commenting on the bubble issue with respect to co-ops/condos or SFHs in the outer suburbs, the SFH market in Arlington still appears to be fairly healthy. Granted the median is slightly down from March 05, but the average is flat Y/Y and the average and median are significantly up from February 06. In addition, settlements are only slightly off Y/Y (and up YTD) and are mostly off at the lower price levels. So, again, without speaking to the other markets, I think SFH in Arlington is still (relatively) strong, though obviously treading water somewhat.

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  2. David,

    The March 2006 numbers for Montgomery County were posted at www.gcaar.com/statistics this morning, and showed a remarkable YOY median price decline from $465K to $420K, with a YOY inventory increase of 300%. Then mysteriously when I checked back several hours later, the page was gone. I'm not sure what's going on there.

    In any event, before the statistics were deleted, I posted some of the relevant ones here:
    http://forums.washingtonpost.com/wprealestate/messages/?msg=5607.1

    Maybe the stats were a legitimate error, which is why they were pulled, but it sure made me suspicious.

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  3. Investment..Investment..Investment!...Ha ha ha !

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  4. You know things have changed in the DC area when you hear a builder commercial on the radio where the builder promises NOT TO LOWER THE PRICE after you buy, LOL.

    Overall, I think right now we're looking at a pretty balanced market through the spring. After that, I bet we could find some great values through the fall and winter. It seems Arlington condos are holding up well though, sales slightly up, and prices up.

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  5. Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah!

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  6. Like I always say, show me a market -any market- that can sustain price stability though massive inventory growth. There are none.

    -Bubble-X

    BubbleTrack.blogspot.com

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  7. what is the story with the MD markets? Is it the same situation?

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  8. I have to say this is unwinding even faster than I (a huge housing bubble proponent) thought it would. I thought we would be flat all year with building inventory, and have some small declines next year.

    At this rate, though...

    A Redskins fan

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  9. This is going to catch a lot of people by surprise. I have an acquantaince who is an appraiser in the DC region. He told me this year will be another great year for real estate. I'm certain he believed that is the truth, it wasn't cheerleading for real estate just because he has a stake in it. His reasoning was the familiar line that this is the nations capitol, hundreds of thousands of new jobs are coming in the next few years. His advice to me was to buy before the spring rush, if I was to wait I would pay more later.

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  10. For zip 22181, on 2/20, 34 of 74 properties in the area match your criteria.

    For zip 22181, on 4/8, 54 of 111 properties in the area match your criteria.

    Houston, we have a problem.

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  11. The newspapers don't seem to be touching this information. Nothing in either the WaPo or the WaTi.

    Out of curiosity, were these numbers typically reported in major news outlets last summer?

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  12. Just wait until the April numbers come out. Since April 1, Virginia MLS is already reporting 1500 additional units on the market, and we're only 1 week into April. Inventory is coming on the market twice as fast now as it did in March.

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  13. If you look at MRIS.com, Washington DC proper price average is down 5% YOY, and median is down between 1% and 2% YOY.

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  14. Steinravnik-
    I did a doublet take when I looked at the current inventory vs. April 1. I thought March was a huge increase, but April could see twice as many houses come on the market. Unbelievable.

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  15. While looking around Northern Virginia this weekend, a real estate agent admitted to me that that there has been "considerable retraction" in the area real estate market and that prices might decrease by 30% by the end of the year. She noted that no buyers are offering sellers' asking prices any more.

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  16. I just noted that 30% of houses are reduced in Ashburn, VA. That seems like a lot. My relatives live there and I heard today they were out shopping for a retirement home in Frederick County before prices "escalate" even more. Gag.

    I noticed the NVAR YTD sales numbers are wrong - they are fixing Fairfax County now and still need to fix Loudoun and Prince William.

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  17. I would be very intersted in specific numbers for DC proper, particularly for condos. Most sellers of two-bedroom condominiums are still being very unrealistic--pricing 20% above last year's peak and then watching their properties sit on the market.

    I am in the market (in the Dupont/Adams Morgan/Kalorama area), but I think I may want to wait it out until sellers acknowledge reality. BTW, those who do, who price below or even AT last year's peak, which was about May-July 2005, seem to move their properties quicker.

    One-bedrooms are in freefall, though, from last year's peak prices. Last year you couldn't touch a one-bedroom for under $400K (and that with no parking!). Now I'm seeing very well-located 1 bdrms with parking LISTED at $340-$390K, so we can presume they'll go for less. This is for existing units, not new construction, builders' prices are in the stratosphere, I wonder if some are truly being run by the insane.

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  18. It is now late August and the numbers continue to reflect softening. As winter approaches, the stress cracks will become more apparent.

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