Sunday, April 02, 2006

Q & A Session on the US Economy

What is the economic outlook for US economy?

As the housing market continues to decline it will drag the unsustainable US economy into a recession. A recession is coming soon. By late 2006, the US economy will be hurting. There are many other conditions that will contribute to the coming recession including the US budget debt & deficit, over reliance on consumer spending, the trade deficit, rising oil prices, hurricanes and a move away from the US dollar.

You seem to be so pessimistic in you outlook. Some have called you a 'prophet of doom.' How do you see yourself?

No, I am NOT a 'prophet of doom.' Rather, I am truthsayer. I tell the truth as I see it. Some others in the blogosphere are predicting a second great depression. I am predicting a moderate to severe recession, not a depression.


  1. My position is that the problems facing America are not insurmountable. However, given the cultural condition of America, they won't be approached rationally and thus won't be solved before causing a crisis.

    Kevin Phillips gives a more articulate explanation here.

  2. tom,

    Well put. I agree. :-)

  3. Hurting in 6 months, eh? Love to see it, but not f*cking likely.

    As to Phillips - F*CK HIM!!

    I just love these f*cking guys like Phillips, McNamara, Kissinger, et al who say, "yeah, we really f*cked up the world 40 years ago, but we're smarter now and this is what we should be doing now. Yes yes yes we know millions of people TOLD us we were f*cking nuts back then, but our INTENTIONS were pure so we sleep fine at night, not really bothered at all by the carnage we caused. Who could've known that a (fundamentalist religious movement / war / fill in the blank) would turn out so badly? Ok ok so there were millions who were right while we who ran things were wrong, but it is still I and my kind that should be deciding the course of the nation, not those wackos who opposed us. Got it?"

    He's sh*tting us, right?

  4. Thanks, David.

    I urge everyone to click through to the article by Phillips. Very good, IMHO.

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  7. Kevin Phillips gives a brilliant write
    one that sounds so true and clear- the truth is as I have said here before-and David remembers- we have fallen into a religious theocracy- and economic plutocracy and a SUV debt ridden security paranoid society- that will eventually fall just as hard as Communisism. Science- began some 650 years ag0- 'The Dawn of the Age of reason' and the scientific method. The current Republican party has elected to deny this- and instead bring to us a cross between nazi nationalism and viking paganism of the dark ages- a mix of mysticism and astrology. Indeed the gulf between the haves and have nots is as extreme more so then in any point in American history-more so then before the crash in 1929.

    Mr. Phillips is saying what I have said on this blog and others for so long- glad someone else has seen the light.

  8. I've been reading your site for a few weeks now, hoping to read something with something meaningful. You spout off a bunch of doomsday threads everyday, without any factual basis or personal analysis behind it. I'm leaving.

  9. Oy Vey!

    How about this idea: If the US economy is still doing fine at the end of this year, you jump off a bridge?

  10. "How about this idea: If the US economy is still doing fine at the end of this year, you jump off a bridge"

    I disagree with the premise of the question as the US economy is NOT doing fine right now. The economy is not just about this quarter's GDP growth. Look at other indicators.

  11. The problems we face right now are not the fault of one political party, but rather both the big ones. We had a stock bubble, corporate debt, and a massive trade deficit in 2000, and now we have a housing bubble, government debt, and a massive trade deficit.

    A Redskins fan

  12. The GOP deserves most of the blame. They have been in power for a while.

  13. I'm a little tired of Phillips. I think most of these oldester are missing trends because they're out of touch. They make something up that relates to what they know and then sell it.

    As far as the economy, I think trends are underway that are invisible and unmeasurable. Why is the economy and the stock market up so strong. All indication are it was not going to be a good year.

    There is so much uncertainty- housing, energy, deficit, major industries in trouble (autos) and still we keep rockin' along. Got to be something else at work.

  14. Does anyone know a searchable MLS or any realestate list which also shows the previous sale, of a house , for example date and price ? Thx

  15. The economy could do well late into this year- or even 2007- however at decades end there will be a powerful correction, most likley the most traumatic since the great depression. Demographics has much to do with. As does a housinf bubble and rapidly inflating stocks. Two asset bubbles, rising oil. massive debt, rising rates.... Iran, Iraq....not a benign vision in my opinion- As Arthur Miller said once- 'An Era ends when its basic illusions are exhausted'. Another words nothing stays forever- including this. Doomster? No pragmatist- the road is filled with corspes and ghosts who said 'We have reached a permanent plateau of wealth and prosperity'........nothing bad will happen.

  16. also renting in MA

    'something else is at work'- a massive amount of liquidity- the markets are still flooded with an incredible amount of dollars, despite interest rate rises- all this liquidity will come home to roost- even AG said periods of loose money could lead to unpleasant endings.....

  17. I strongly suspect that the diatribes against Kevin Phillips are from people who haven't read him, and have only a very dim idea of what he's saying. In fact, he sums up our current predicament rather well.

  18. Kevin Phillips is a bright man

    who has always had a keen intellect on Amercian cultural and political trends since the late 1960's.
    His 'theories' and predictions have been very accurate and been born out in time. All the naysayers re: Global warming/climate change are now being proven wrong- Mr. Phillips predictions will also be proven appropriate in due time.