"Rates on 30-year mortgages climbed this week for the eighth time in the past nine weeks, hitting the highest level in nearly four years."
"Freddie Mac, the mortgage company, reported Thursday that rates on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.62 percent, up from 6.60 percent last week."
"This week's rate was the highest since the week ended June 20, 2002, when 30-year mortgages were at 6.63 percent." (Washington Post 6/27/06)
Posts
WHAT??
ReplyDeleteHoney, gather up the kids while I pack the U-Haul so we can move into a rental!!
Hmmm, front page story in the Post about people looking to live in DC alleys because of housing shortage:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/28/AR2006052800886.html
No coverage here in DC bubble blog. I guess this flies in the face of the bubble bursting...
-joe06
"in DC alleys because of housing shortage"
ReplyDeleteOh come on now, let the nice guy have his blog and don't contridict him.
bryce
they choose to live their because its cool and cheaper
ReplyDeleteBut what will their parents and their friends think of them living in an alley house? That is the real decision factor.
ReplyDeleteAAAHHHHHHIIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteOh wait, I locked in at under 6% years ago. Nevermind.
This seems to be about two percentage points higher than a couple years ago, which makes housing a lot less affordable for those using a 30 year mortgage (or an ARM). And since something like 50% (is that the number?) of DC buyers in 2005 were using an ARM, I would think it would have an effect.
ReplyDeleteA Redskins fan
Why so much sarcasm? We bought at the top of the last bubble before there was an internet to give information like this. If this blog saves one family it has been worth it.
ReplyDeleteIf you want to time markets, try commodities or the new CME Housing Hedge funds. If you are buying for the long-term, what sense does incurring multiple transaction costs make?
ReplyDeleteIn other words; why care so much about normal cycles. Interest rates are still attractive and we have already come off the peak prices.
Selling, moving, rebuying etc. is very costly. Market timers and others with crystal balls should stick with stocks and commodities and stop worrying about their home.
If your home will represent that much of your net worth, then you need a financial advisor.
for me and my gal it's less of a decision to wait (time) than not even having the option. but then again we could afford something w/ the crazy lending standards and hokey mortgage options so maybe it is a crystal ball phenom since we're unwilling to chance rates staying low.
ReplyDeleteIf you can't afford to buy, then there really is nothing to debate.
ReplyDeleteMany people probably can afford to buy at fixed rates; but just not the place they want.
There used to be such a thing as "starting out". Our first house was a fixer-upper. Ugly, but great potential. I think people are unwilling to sacrifice rather than unable to buy.
"they choose to live their because its cool and cheaper"
ReplyDeleteI don't see what's so cool about hosing down your alley b/c someone pee'd on it the night before.
A buch of drunk dudes who live on the street where I *used* to live in Ashburn VA would come home late at night, get out of their cars, and urinate right in the middle of the street before going into their house. Nice. Oh, they yelled a lot while they were doing it.
ReplyDeleteva_invester
ReplyDelete"Many people probably can afford to buy at fixed rates; but just not the place they want."
Yes alot of people can buy in Hagerstown, MD or Winchester, VA but would not want the commute.
There used to be such a thing as "starting out". Our first house was a fixer-upper. Ugly, but great potential. I think people are unwilling to sacrifice rather than unable to buy."
No I think most people are unable to buy. How many people in this blog are not buying a house because they "are unwilling to sacrifice"?
Based on comments, it seems like many on this blog did not buy a home several years ago, are now priced out of the market and are bitter and resentful at those who did buy during the runup.
ReplyDeleteOf course, a few seem to think that homeownership is nothing more than a scam.
But the majority seem to not be buying a home because they think that if they wait a while (a few months, maybe a year, maybe a decade), then housing prices will drop by 20% or so and then they can swoop in a buy something affordable.
In other words, some aren't buying because they can't afford to; some aren't buying because they are waiting for a massive price drop; and some aren't buying because they think it's all a conspiracy.
fritz
ReplyDelete"Based on comments, it seems like many on this blog did not buy a home several years ago, are now priced out of the market and are bitter and resentful at those who did buy during the runup."
I'm not bitter and resentful at homeowners, just bitter because I'm stuck in a apartment.
"But the majority seem to not be buying a home because they think that if they wait a while (a few months, maybe a year, maybe a decade), then housing prices will drop by 20% or so and then they can swoop in a buy something affordable."
DUH!
"Of course, a few seem to think that homeownership is nothing more than a scam."
Interesting. Why would anyone think homeownership in general would be a scam? Some of the previous postings by Dave showing developer's deals (free plasma screens, 6 months no mortgage) are argueably a scam.
There was a poster on a previous thread that argued that homeownership was nothing but a banking scheme. He/she had links to websites that supported that rather loony argument.
ReplyDeleteDo you really think that real estate prices will drop by 20%? Is that on the national level or in certain markets? And if it's in certain markets, would it be for that area's average or for particular neighborhoods (e.g., recently gentrified neighborhoods)? And would such a drop occur in a year? 2 year? 10 years?
I am fascinated by thoughts that such a drop could occur without there being other massive repercussions (i.e., if national housing prices dropped by double digits, we would be in Great Depression, Part II and we'd all be sellign apples on streetcorners). I find views like this to be rather Waiting for Godot-ish.
In the early 90's prices dropped about 20 to 25% for houses and up to 40% for condo's. This was my personal experience and I followed the market closely.
ReplyDeleteThe Economy was bad. I don't know whether it was a chicken or egg deal or what - but real estate tanked. We had a huge run-up in the late 80's with some places doubling in 2 years.
I can't say I know any of the macro particulars - only what I saw. I fully expect the same this time around based on the cycles of real estate. It is only my guess.
There were bidding wars in te late eighties, too.
Fritz, posting from a SoCal perspective, OC saw a decline in median price of about 21% in the last downturn. LA saw 28%. No, there was no depression and the world did not come to an end. But these declines *did* happen even though the prior run-up was much smaller than the recent one. 50% declines this time around are not impossible.
ReplyDeleteDavid has deleted several of my comments that merely questioned the censorship. My comments contained no swear words and no insults.
ReplyDeleteIt makes me wonder what else has/is being deleted.
He deletes a lot of things, not just the blatant, baseless insults. (and I don't blame him for deleting blatant insults) Critical thinkers voice their opinions on this site, and it tends to be those thoughts that are deleted. (the critical ones)
ReplyDeleteBTW: "Critical Thinking" is not a bad thing, nor is it an insult to those who engage in it. Look at GWB for an example of someone who AVOIDS critical thinking (and admits to it). That just about sums up the mindset of people who refuse to engage in direct, honest discussion.
Did you notice that the hand holding the GPS device in the photos from West VA was edited? He actually to the time and effort to remove the fingers from the photo. Wierd.
"He deletes a lot of things, not just the blatant, baseless insults. (and I don't blame him for deleting blatant insults) Critical thinkers voice their opinions on this site, and it tends to be those thoughts that are deleted. (the critical ones)"
ReplyDeleteI keep the vast majority of posts that argue with my analysis. You know that. If a post contains both critical analysis and a insult or swear word it will be deleted.
"Did you notice that the hand holding the GPS device in the photos from West VA was edited? He actually to the time and effort to remove the fingers from the photo. Wierd."
It was because I want to retain my anonimity. I don't want people to know if what is the color of my skin.
Still doesn't explain deleting posts that don't contain "insults" (i.e. sedentary suburbanite) or profanity.
ReplyDeleteStuff has already been deleted from this thread.
ReplyDelete"It was because I want to retain my anonimity. I don't want people to know if what is the color of my skin."
ReplyDeleteWe know your sister is white, so unless you were adopted...
" Still doesn't explain deleting posts that don't contain "insults" (i.e. sedentary suburbanite) or profanity."
ReplyDeleteRead the blog rules. You can search for them.