Spring is the busiest season for real estate and typically when prices rise the most. Some real estate agents are hoping that a spring boom will reverse the current price declines that are occurring in most bubble markets. The hope is that with the spring season a large amount of buyers will swoop in, raise demand, and bid up prices. Real estate 'guru' Blanche Evans wrote on January 23rd "What about housing? There's a lot of positive news that suggests that housing may have had its "rest." Spring might catapult housing into another record year."
While it is still somewhat early in the spring selling season, so far it has been a disappointment for the housing industrial complex in the bubble markets. Inventory continues to increase in the overwhelming of the bubble markets as prices are either declining slightly or remaining flat.
For example, in metro Sacramento on March 20th there were 11,560 properties which increased by 2001 (16.9%) to 13,521 on May 6th [about 1.5 months]. Meanwhile, if we compare the year over year (YoY) for sold inventory we see 2,489 properties sold in metro Sacramento in March 2006 down 7.7% from 2,965 in March 2005.
In Washington, DC the median price selling price in February 2006 was 400,000 which then declined slightly (-0.75%) to 397,000 in March 2006. If you compare that to the same months in 2005 when the median price jumped (+5.5%) from 379,000 to 400,000 between February and March (Source: MRIS).
The false hope of the 'spring boom' is being shattered by the harsh reality of a declining housing market. The spring boom is dead on arrival (DOA).
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
What is the "official" spring selling season? I thought it was suppose to start after Super Bowl but it keeps getting delayed for some reason.
ReplyDeleteBold makes it persuasive!!! BOO HOMEOWNERS!!! DIE FOR OWNING!!! DIE!!!! NO MAN OWN THE EARTH!!!! BURN!!!!
ReplyDeleteactually, Mother's Day traditional marks the END of the so-called "spring season". Then there is a lull (again, traditionally) with the market supposedly having end of summer pick-up...then slowing again after Labor Day.
ReplyDeleteThere has been nothing that follows tradition for the past 12 months. All "seasonal" bets are off, and if I hear one more anti-bubblehead spew "wait til spring season!", I'll strangle them.
if i blow enough cigar smoke up this cats rear,will it bounce when i throw it of the title co roof? or just sound like david lereah come august?
ReplyDeleteMan, David, you just get angrier and angrier that the "bubble" hasn't "burst". I remember months ago you actually used to post data. Time for you to get a new hobby.
ReplyDelete"I remember months ago you actually used to post data. "
ReplyDeleteThere are factual data in this post.
And if you had any sales data about, you know, WASHINGTON DC IN THE SPRING you might have had a basis for your post, but you didn't, so you just come across as a guy hoping for other people to suffer misfortune. And posting a lot in bold.
ReplyDeleteAgreed - the number of sales actually went up in March (which contains all of 10 days of spring). Sounds like "David" is running out of things to post about.
ReplyDelete" so you just come across as a guy hoping for other people to suffer misfortune"
ReplyDeleteI wish people did not sufffer major financial losses. I am against speculative episodes; I wish this speculative episode had NOT began.
In high inflation times, it is always worth it to point out that flat nominal prices (or in the case of DC prices, slightly lower nominal prices) mean larger real losses.
ReplyDeleteA Redskins fan
David - You're site really attracts a lot of trolls.
ReplyDelete"" so you just come across as a guy hoping for other people to suffer misfortune"
ReplyDeleteI wish people did not sufffer major financial losses. I am against speculative episodes; I wish this speculative episode had NOT began. "
That's BS. You know what home values are, you know what that means to the people who own them, and you are rooting for the market to collapse. You can't pretend this is 1997.
Also, it doesn't really matter whether David or anyone else wants people to suffer or not. Even if someone gets on here and says "I REVEL IN THE PAIN OF FLIPPERS!!!!" that person was NOT the cause of the flippers' pain. The flippers have only themselves, the credit creators, and the financial media to blame, not some blogger or a blog poster.
ReplyDeleteSo I fail to see the point of people who constantly say "you are hoping for a crash." It just doesn't matter whether anyone is "hoping" for a crash- the crash will either happen or not regardless of what a few bloggers think.
A Redskins fan
Redskins fan,
ReplyDeletethe point is that a crash would hurt "flippers" and regular people alike, and it's douchbagish to hope that other people suffer misfortune. As a redskins fan, you should understand that.
"David - You're site really attracts a lot of trolls. "
ReplyDeleteSeriously - how trollish to point out that the data in his post did not support his BOLD conclusions.
"Agreed - the number of sales actually went up in March (which contains all of 10 days of spring). Sounds like "David" is running out of things to post about."
ReplyDeleteWhy would David let facts get in the way of a good Bubble post?
I totally agree with these other posters, David. I can understand numbers supported by data (like the charts that you put up), but this silly "bolding" of facts and your tendancy to keep crying "Fire Fire" make me wonder why you are stil stating that you are objective.
ReplyDeleteAnd like the other poster mentioned, crying "Fire" will hurt many people, both speculators and non-speculators. By the way, I own a home and don't speculate, but it seems like you are bent on driving the market down without regard to the fact that the entire US economy will be hit. Keep crying fire!!!
"In Washington, DC the median price selling price in February 2006 was 400,000 which then declined slightly (-0.75%) to 397,000 in March 2006. If you compare that to the same months in 2005 when the median price jumped (+5.5%) from 379,000 to 400,000 between February and March (Source: MRIS)."
ReplyDeleteThe entire paragraph contains data. Therefore, you are lying about fact that no data was presented, which makes you a troll.
"The entire paragraph contains data. Therefore, you are lying about fact that no data was presented, which makes you a troll. "
ReplyDeleteWhen does spring start, moron?
It looks like the DC real estate market is leveling off. So far, there hasn't been a big decline like 10 percent or more with the real estate prices. Condominium developments are getting hammered though.
ReplyDeleteWe can agree that the price run for homes has finally stopped. The big question is how hard will the real estate market fall. I don't think we will see a big crash in the Washington, DC area. However, I can't make the same confident claim in super bubblicious markets like San Diego, San Francisco, Miami, or New York.
"there hasn't been a big decline like 10 percent or more with the real estate prices."
ReplyDeleteOr, you know, any decline. Keep hoping, though.
The trolls are out in full force. It must have been an effective post.
ReplyDeleteSo now although the bubble isn't real somehow talking about it will make so and hurt people? Give me a break. If there is no Bubble David can blog until blue in the face and nothing will happen. However, given your strong emotions I can tell you don't really don't believe there isn't a bubble.
ReplyDelete"The trolls are out in full force. It must have been an effective post. "
ReplyDeleteNothing to say in his own defense. Figures. I mean, lack of figures.
"So now although the bubble isn't real somehow talking about it will make so and hurt people? Give me a break. If there is no Bubble David can blog until blue in the face and nothing will happen. However, given your strong emotions I can tell you don't really don't believe there isn't a bubble. "
ReplyDeleteYeah, how strange to call out people who post hate messages on a blog. You people are disgusting.
I partially judge the quality of a post by the amount of responses. Thank you trolls.
ReplyDelete"Bold makes it persuasive!!!"
ReplyDeleteand
"...but this silly "bolding" of facts..."
Oh, honestly, who cares if David uses bold, italic or Comic Sans font for his postings? The debate over formatting is as pointless as the debate over whether Sarah should call herself "Sarah in DC" or "Sarah in Ballston."
If you don't like the formatting on the blog postings or the pseudonyms of the other commentators, you can always find another site. There's lots of material on the Web.
Why is it wrong for someone on the sidelines to want the market to contract or level off if it enables them to become a homeowner?
ReplyDeleteIt shouldn't hurt or matter to long term homeowners who bought their home as a residence and not an investment.
As for the investors - why should I care if they're in a very precarious position? They were actively hoping to make tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of dollars simply for shuffling paperwork. Their risk, their reward. If they're successful, more power to them, if they aren't, too bad.
If a crash hurts you, then you got in over your head or you're just unlucky. Re-examine what you purchased and why and work to not get caught like that again.
My $0.02.
"I partially judge the quality of a post by the amount of responses. Thank you trolls. "
ReplyDeleteYeah, I partially judge the quality of a post based on whether the claims are supported. Yours are not.
mytwocents,
ReplyDeleteYeah, I guess we should really root for people who took out a home equity loan to send their kid to college to lose their shirts; ditto the young couple who bought a 1-br and suddenly needs something bigger, they're all just flippers anyway.
You disgust me.
"Agreed - the number of sales actually went up in March (which contains all of 10 days of spring). Sounds like "David" is running out of things to post about."
ReplyDeleteOf course the number of sales would increase from February to March. The month of February always has the least amount of sales, similar to February being the coldest month. Of course March is going to be warmer, but what you want to do is compare it to the previous year. And that is what David did.
The point is. Home prices are starting to decline and will continue to decline. The price of the asset will have no affect on anyone unless they must sell for less than what they purchased or owe. So, the only people who will be hurt are those who must sell at a loss. That is life.
From, Remember the Past....
Overextended themselves. Kid wasn't smart enough to get a scholarship to college? Had a baby they couldn't afford?
ReplyDeleteGimme a break flipper. We hope that we do not have to bail your stupid azzes out (or the banks).
They really spent the money on a bigger car, wide screen LCD TV, vacations, you name it.
"The point is. Home prices are starting to decline and will continue to decline. The price of the asset will have no affect on anyone unless they must sell for less than what they purchased or owe. So, the only people who will be hurt are those who must sell at a loss. That is life. "
ReplyDeleteWhat kind of a fool would conclude that based on a $3000 month to month difference?
i see a lot of anonymous troll postings and they're all ignoring word from every major homebuilder that the sh*t is hitting the fan in the mid-atlantic and they all cited the DC market as problematic for them.
ReplyDeletesit back down, anonytroll
"I can't believe I am seeing this garbage in here. I guess the tide has so clearly turned, that we will now have to listen to the BITTER REALTORS lecture us on having "caused" the bursting of the bubble they pumped and fed for so long. I don't know about David, but I wish I was that powerful. Imagine?"
ReplyDeleteYeah, everybody who noticed that David's post lacked any support whatsoever must be a realtor.
Wow, it's easy to come up with some sob stories Anonymous. What about the poor homeowner who lost his job too? Now he has to sell amidst all of this craziness.
ReplyDeletePoor guy.
Your examples are pointless and ignore my comments. If someone is taking out a home equity loan to pay for their kid's college they've likely been a long term owner. They'll weather this storm. If that young couple suddenly needs a bigger place well, tough, you can have what you can afford. They'll have to figure out why they bought where they did, and make subsequent choices.
Speaking of disgust, you should really look in the mirror. Your post is riddled with hate simply because I'm not optimistic that the housing market will grow 20% year over year...
My $0.02.
"What kind of a fool would conclude that based on a $3000 month to month difference?"
ReplyDeleteCompare to last year. Which is what I did.
"Anonymous said...
ReplyDelete"When does spring start, moron?"
Ha,Muhaha,ha,ha,ha
This guy is actually "debating" when spring starts!???!
Hahahahamuahhahamuhaha
What’s the numbers?hahahamuhahamuhaha
I don’t know, it’s not spring yet
Is that your argument??
Muhahahmuhaha
Let the bubble burst. How many of the desperate bagholders are real people who actually live in the home and how many are foriegn or domestic "investors". Near Ft Belvior there is a little townhome development which has 15% of the units for sale. A guy I know who lives in one (now with a 30 yr fixed mtg) sez the extra parking spaces are always full. He thinks it is the "extended families", ie lots of people in these 3000 ft sq units. These are foriegners mostly.The units have 2 car garages.
ReplyDeleteAnyhow, I really am enjoying this. Maybe when the speculative fever stops I can get contractors and subs to come out and discuss building the home on my 20 AC that I have designed but cannot get built. Last year it was impossible to get them out to even price working on it.
Wow!?! What a post...
ReplyDeleteAnyhow, where in my post did I wish bad things on anyone? Just because I'm indifferent to the wins/losses of those around me doesn't mean I'm wishing bad things on people. Life happens. You prepare for it the best you can and go from there...
My $0.02.
Actually, the only people in DC that will be hurt by the inevitable (already happening in condos, but will accelerate) price declines are the ones who try to cash out of the DC area. Those moving up from a small house to a big one won't cause, their new house will cost less as well.
ReplyDeletePeople who went out and bought 10 condos, bidding up prices, and preventing some families from owning a roof over their heads, are the ones who will suffer and loose everything. Those people deserve to. I will have no sympathy for these true flippers (holding multiple properties in order to flip them) as they loose their life savings and spend the rest of their lives drowning in debt.
AGAIN: Housing is not like owning STOCK. Everyone needs to live some place. Not everyone needs to own Google stocks. Speculate on stocks. Don't speculate on housing.
mytwocents
ReplyDelete"Anyhow, where in my post did I wish bad things on anyone? "
It looks look this Blogsite is swarming with trolls that are looking to bash someone.
You probably remember last week when I stated that I am an engineer and I can't afford anything here. One troll stated that I went to a substandard college whereas another troll stated that it's because I'm too lazy to go the graduate school. Little did he know that I already had a master's degree. These trolls are willing to make false accusations just so they can pick a fight. I decided not to fight against trolls and focus my comments towards the housing bubble. Let us all who are interested in discussing about the bubble not get involved with the trolls. Maybe they will go else where to stir up trouble.
Speaking of data, here is some on Arlington SFH:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nvar.com/market/marketstats/apr06/arsf0406.PDF
I see no evidence that the increased inventory is having any effect on prices or contracts...
David--
ReplyDeleteMRIS #'s for April (that's spring, right, all you trolls?) released tomorrow, I believe. I have every confidence you'll be able to come back here with the data and you'll have all the ammo you need to make the trolls even angrier... :)
I will giggle like a child when I see flippers dead in the streets with their ARMS's ripped off. The troll(s) on the here most likely are speculators with 1/2 million or more in debt they need to unload to the next bagholder. Shame on them trying to gouge people with their wildly overpriced bullsh*t. To some people that windfall profit that flipper is trying to extract is real money that must be paid back. Flipper is basically trying to rob some young family needing a place to live. There is no honor in flipping houses, it is pure greed.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I can't make the same confident claim in super bubblicious markets like San Diego, San Francisco, Miami, or New York.
ReplyDeleteThat's exactly what people here in the Bay Area say about others..."I can't see it happen here in the Bay Area, but everyone else is just so screwed".
wvu_84,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the thoughts. I don't want to get wrapped up in such negative posts either but felt obligated to respond.
Bryce,
We're getting along too aren't we? There's hope for middle ground in all of this craziness! :)
My $0.02.
DAVID? What happened to that solid gold chart thread you started this morning with all that regional "DATA"?
ReplyDeleteLMAO!!!
Why did you take it down??
the trolls are all riled up.
ReplyDeleteBTW. If a housinghead (there is no bubble, there will be a soft landing type) wants to write an intelligent piece disagreeing with what I write then you can email it to me and I may post it. [please keep it under 5 paragraphs]
ReplyDeleteThe NoVa market must be in the tank, regardless of what the March sales figures show. This is purely anecdotal, but Samson Realty cold-called me at my apartment on Saturday morning trying to pitch me real estate. That's definitely a new one, and, to me, at least a sign of a touch of panic hitting the realtors. I seriously doubt they've had to do that in the past.
ReplyDeleteNot everyone that disagrees with David is a "troll". It is called a debate or discussion for God's sake!
ReplyDelete"Not everyone that disagrees with David is a "troll". It is called a debate or discussion for God's sake!"
ReplyDeleteTrue. Nevertheless, there are many trolls out tonight.
NoVa condos are screwed. Loudoun County McMansions are screwed. Everyone else's house in the DC area has a snowball's chance in hell of keeping the price up.
ReplyDeleteI think part of the problem in the debate is figuring out what a housing bubble really is, especially on the downside. I expect a slow "leaking of the balloon" in the DC area as speculators try to bail fast and as home owners need to leave the area. The rest of the home sellers will be generally stubborn and hope that the prices will come back up, which in my opinion is wishful thinking, or they will manage to list their houses at a price where buyers can make an offer and not offend them in the process. The net effect will be a slight decline in the median sale price overall...unclear at this point how long it will go.
"
ReplyDeleteTrue. Nevertheless, there are many trolls out tonight."
Maybe you can avoid them next time by not posting such unsubstantiated nonsense. As the real estate economy has gotten its legs back the last couple of months, your site has gone to shit.
A Chill Is in the Air for Sellers - NYTimes
ReplyDeleteAnd here is the famous Lereah Quote of the Day -
"It's going from a seller's market to a buyer's market," said David Lereah, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. In March, "price appreciation went down to 7.4 percent, from over 10 percent," he added. "That most probably reflects that sellers are bringing their prices down."
You mean my place only went up 7.4% last year? Oh no!
ReplyDeleteHate to break it to you guys, but 2 condos in my building have sold within a week of listing - 1 open house each - both within the last month. You = pwn3d
David,
ReplyDeleteLooking at the number of trolls and responses we are over the Denial and in the Anger phase. Bargaining is next [bryce is already there :-)]
Good job!
bibba,
ReplyDeleteYou rock. :-)
I am sorry to see folks going (crazy) only by anecdotal evidence....Here is another one by a respected economist...
ReplyDelete“The game of buying a home, or two or three or 17, holding it for a bit, and then flipping it for a handsome profit has pretty much played itself out. ‘Get out as fast as possible,’ says Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody’s Economy.com. ‘The market is moving away from the investor, and even when it stabilizes, I don’t think it’s going to come back anytime soon.’”
All indicator's are out there...If people don't heed it,they must be really STUPID!!!
To anonymous (7.4%),
ReplyDeleteDon't jump to conclusions without reading it carefully...It says appreciation slowed from 10% to 7.4%.
No wonder people jumped at the chance without reading the microprint!
BTW,I think your reading score must have been 7.4% LOL!
"
ReplyDeleteDon't jump to conclusions without reading it carefully...It says appreciation slowed from 10% to 7.4%.
No wonder people jumped at the chance without reading the microprint!
BTW,I think your reading score must have been 7.4% LOL!"
I think you're the one who needs help reading. Why don't you tell us what you think it means, Einstein.
"
ReplyDeleteAll indicator's are out there...If people don't heed it,they must be really STUPID!!!"
David, you better delete this one! Can't have inflammatory posts on your great blog!
anonymous 7.4%,
ReplyDeleteCan you not figure out which March he is refering to?
"anonymous 7.4%,
ReplyDeleteCan you not figure out which March he is refering to?"
Why don't you stop asking questions? Are you afraid you'll look like an ass if you make a declarative statement?
I have made my point, you are looking like one now by declaring it was last year's appreciation!
ReplyDeleteActually, you refuse to make a point because you know you're wrong and don't want to articulate anything so clear that we can make fun of you for not knowing how to read.
ReplyDeletePerfectly understanable for people to be testy if they bought a house they can't afford, want to buy but can't afford to or, like my neighbor, sold his home in '03 to rent and buy low later. OUCH!!
ReplyDelete"Then said Jesus unto him, Put up again thy sword into his place: for all they that take the sword shall perish with the sword." - Matthew 26:52
ReplyDeleteWow -- how the tone of these messages has changed in the past few months! I couldn't agree more that investors and realtors sense that the market is headed donwhill and feel the need to inundate this site with their messages.
ReplyDeleteFolks -- ask any realtor, and the honest ones will tell you that their "spring" season begins after the Superbowl and ends around Memorial Day. And yes, we understand that this doesn't perfectly correspond to the meteorological seasons.
Also, people who believe the market will go down do not wish evil on ordinary homeowners. The conventional wisdom is still true -- if you bought your home to live in it for more than five years, you'll be fine. Otherwise, you were treating your home primarily as an investment, and just like stocks, investmements can go down in the short term. But I don't feel sorry for people who lose money in the stock market, and I can't feel sorry for people who lose money when they only hold onto their houses for less than five years.
Many people who have lived in this area for a while will tell you that prices have come down before, and that even in the late 1990s, sellers sometimes had to come to the closing table with a check. It happens, and people who can't deal with it should rent, or plan to stay in their homes for at least five years.
Finally, keep in mind that pretty much the only people who will lose money if prices go down are those who bought beginning in 2005. As a percentage of total homeowners, this group is very very small. (Keep in mind that 40% of homeowners don't even have a mortgage -- they own their homes outright.) Further, price decreases will only happen in a select group of cities -- most areas of the country are experiencing no bubble whatsoever. So people who try to argue that there will be a major catastrophe if prices go down are overstating their case -- the only people who will get hurt is the small group who bought in 2005 in about a dozen areas of the country, and who don't plan to live in their houses for at least five years.
"...or, like my neighbor, sold his home in '03 to rent and buy low later. OUCH!!"
ReplyDeleteWell, I guess your neighbor didn't count on banks lending to dead folks and pet dogs; otherwise he would've been out at the top. Hey, everyone's a speculator in some sense; and every speculator will have his day. Point being, with current signs of RE exhaustion after 8-10 year bull-run, RE bears' days are coming soon, is all. Nothing personal...it's just bubbliness.
I was told this is a great place to hang out, which is good because I'm all riled up. :)
ReplyDeleteOn a serious note, take a look at a 10-year stock chart for the S&P 500. It sat fairly flat for almost a year before it was obvious that the bubble was deflating in late 2000. Housing market bubbles take about twice as long to deflate as stock market bubbles. If we're at the peak of the housing bubble, things should seem iffy for a while.
eh, ***shrugs***
ReplyDeletethe market will do whatever the market will do.
Dear Soft Landing/No Bubble Trolls:
ReplyDeleteAnon said:
"Finally, keep in mind that pretty much the only people who will lose money if prices go down are those who bought beginning in 2005."
I'm moving to the DC area, I look at prices increasing 105% since 2001. I look at my salary and I look at rental rates. I can rent a "$800k" McMansion for $2600 a month. I'm better off renting until that house is worth $400k and then I still won't buy it because it's really only a pile of poorly organized sticks that will be completely rotten in 50 years and will cost more and more to keep warm in the winter and cool in the summer.
No soft landing in this market and a lot more people are going to be hurt than those that bought since 2005. Quick snap back to the other side of the historic mean and then settle to about 50% of current value.
My agent hinted at lowering the asking price by $10K on the evening we signed the listing agreement. Being that our place is well-maintained and priced right in the middle of where the other properties are listed at for my community, I refused to make that adjustment.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, there really haven't been many buyers out. In fact, 2 in the past week in addition to a few during an open house. Clearly, it is a bit anemic.
Now, do you really think lowering my asking price by $10K will create any interest? I doubt it. Heck, if someone is so inclined to make a purchase attempt for my property, submit a proper offer. The worst I can say is "no" or even counter-offer.
I just think there is a moderate amount of looking going on at the moment, but not a lot of buying or offers being placed.
Finally, keep in mind that the gas prices at $3.00 a gallon is making the homes that fall in outer suburbs very, very unattractive at the moment. For some of these bubbles, the price of gasoline might be the needle that pokes the bubble.
AIIII-FUCKIN-EEEEEEEEE!!!!!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/09/business/09home.html?ex=1147406400&en=306cfc6710d45eb2&ei=5087%0A
FYI, everyone should be aware that David is deleting some of the more vitrolic anti-homeowner/pro-renter messages, in an attempt, I would assume, to make those supporting his position look less crazed than they really are...
ReplyDeleteAnd I still see no one has addressed the strength of the April Arlington SFH stats posted above...
"FYI, everyone should be aware that David is deleting some of the more vitrolic anti-homeowner/pro-renter messages, in an attempt, I would assume, to make those supporting his position look less crazed than they really are..."
ReplyDeleteI am trying to delete vitrolic comments on BOTH sides. It can be diffucult to keep up.
pray the bubble pops, to knock some sense into people
ReplyDeletebut pray more that the government does not confiscate others' wealth to bail out the idiots
Sounds like all the flippers and overextended homeowners are sensing that a major ass-pounding is going to start shortly and they are trying to convince the voyeurs on this blog not to watch. All these folks are about to become some banks "bubble bitch" for the next 20 years or so and they can't stand the pain of it. Let the howls from the ass-pounding begin and hopefully warn others of the perils of ponzi get rich quick schemes! By the way, I won't apologize for watching the humiliation from the sidelines!
ReplyDeleteData can be presented in many ways, even to support opposite arguments. Like the figures of median prices for Feb and Mar 2005 and 2006. Prices were essentially flat from Mar 2005 to Mar 2006, 400,000 to 397,000. However, using yoy figures to look for month to month changes is silly, there is a huge lag effect. Because prices were rising through most of 2005, Oct - Dec 2005 was probably higher than the 400,000 of Mar 2005. Although I don't know what those prices were, most would agree prices were rising through 2005. So Mar 2006 at 397,000 may be 10 or 20,000 less than the end of 2005. Not a collapse, but certainly a significant change in trend.
ReplyDeleteoh bibba,
ReplyDeleteyou know my name! I'm flattered. funny, have no recollection of your name.
Since you been following my posts since I started posting here... you know that I'm a speculative flipper; in waaay over my head and "eating ramen noodles off my granite countertop."
Since when is being reasonable "bargaining"? Since you've been unable to understand the difference between the two.
bryce.
It must be exhilarating to be a flipper with more mortgage debt than he/she can afford to service over the long haul while simultaneously watching prices erode. I would imagine one or more must have winced at the quarter point uptick in the fed rate today. I can imagine the internal reasonings that must be going on with some of them. Something along the lines of: "Gee, I'd really feel better if I could unload a few of these properties that aren't selling for top dollar. I could lower my price a little, maybe 1%, but then I'd be losing money on the deal. If I can't sell this spring I really can't afford all these mortgage payments for another entire year of negative cash flow in hopes of fetching a better price next year. Besides, what if the prices don't improve next year? Oh well, maybe I can borrow some more HELOC money at 18% to tide me over until I sell something, or maybe I could just put it on my credit card, oh wait, I could borrow against my 401k and put the money back later, yeah, that's it..."
ReplyDeleteAgreed that even if we are not down YOY, we are down from the peak. And I think we just descended onto a slippery slope. . . .
ReplyDelete