Friday, May 26, 2006

David Lereah on Existing Home Sales

Yesterday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) published their existing home sales (pdf) data for April.

Total existing-home sales including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops slipped 2.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 6.76 million units in April from a downwardly revised level of 6.90 million in March, and were 5.7 percent below the 7.17 million-unit pace in April 2005.

David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said the decline was expected. "“Our leading indicator for pending home sales was trending lower, and our forecast model is showing a modest decline for the second quarter with sales leveling out before rising in the fourth quarter,"” he said. "Higher interest rates are slowing home sales, but we see this as another sign of a soft landing for the housing sector which remains at historically high levels."
David Lereah still seems solidly in the 'soft landing' camp. This is what Mr. Lereah had to say in response to the new numbers:
"This may be the bottom. It appears May is a little better." - David Lereah 5/25/05
The bottom? The boom lasted about 5 years. It has been less then a year from peak in the bubble markets. We are certainly, not at the bottom.