Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Northern Virginia Charts

New April 2006 charts for Northern Virginia (metro DC area) are out.

Great charts. Keep up the solid work!

17 comments:

  1. The end of the YOY appreciation (soon to be deapreciation) chart has this bubblicous flavor to it.

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  2. Based on that Median Price chart, looks like we're settling into a nice little "soft landing" pattern, ala San Diego.

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  3. I can't believe I was lucky enough to sell our NWDC SFH in Aug last year. I am rarely -- no, never -- this lucky.

    http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/619/2015/1600/dcprices1.0.jpg

    Jerkstore

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  4. Correction: we sold in Oct. We moved in Aug.

    Jerkstore

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  5. "Correction: we sold in Oct. We moved in Aug."

    Whoaaaaaa! That's close. That's like selling all your stock a week before the dot.com bubble burst.

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  6. surfer-x said...
    Based on that Median Price chart, looks like we're settling into a nice little "soft landing" pattern, ala San Diego.

    Or a little dead cat bounce...

    Given the fact that market fundamentals are so displaced, the soft landing theory is highly unlikely.

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  7. Stein - I hope you're right but London and Australia did have softlandings (so far). Also, there is a lot of pent up demand from folks who were out bid by investors. Of course the U.S. is the big enchilada so if we go down the world econocmy goes with us so London and the Aussies may not be a good analogy. However, the jury is still out.

    NOVA Fence Sitter

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  8. Hey where's Bryce to tell us there is no evidence of a problem in the housing market? LOL!!!

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  9. Glad to see that I'm still under your skin, VHB :-) Thanks for thinking of me, sweetie.

    bryce

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  10. Anonymous said...
    Stein - I hope you're right but London and Australia did have softlandings (so far). Also, there is a lot of pent up demand from folks who were out bid by investors. Of course the U.S. is the big enchilada so if we go down the world econocmy goes with us so London and the Aussies may not be a good analogy. However, the jury is still out.

    NOVA Fence Sitter

    The fundamentals will eventually have to realign. Even though I believe the possibility is a remote one, it is possible that there be a soft landing. Keep in mind though, this would require stagnant prices for 20 years for salaries to catch up.

    In reality, I think it will be a combination of increased salaries and falling house prices, but with house prices doing more of the correcting. I think at best we could be looking at a 2 year correction, at worst 5 years. But really, these are just my guesses at this point. No one really knows.

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  11. Yes, but if salaries don't increase at greater than inflation, which is running a projected 5.1% this year, it matters not. How many people do you know that get 5% COL raises every year?

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  12. Stein - I agree with you assessment but I think we have to keep our selves open to facts that don't support the hypothesis e.g., recent experience in foriegn housing markets. The tendency is to look for data that supports your own view and to ignore the rest.

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  13. I was more lucky than smart: I took a new job in NY (that was the smart part). We do miss that house, though it's very hard to imagine it could be worth more than we got for it.

    That is, until the next bubble in 15 years.

    Jerkstore

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  14. >> London and Australia did have softlandings

    didn't both governments take pauses in their rate hike cycles just after the housing numbers started turning bad?

    In the US case that would have meant the FED pausing in February 2006, waiting for their earlier hikes to work their way through the markets.

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  15. Anon 3:21,

    Maybe you are right and inflation is the differentiator because it will push the fed to continue hking rates and therefore crush the housing market. Also, Australia was buyoed somewhat by the Asia and commodity boom. I agree the analogy is not perfect. As Stein said what happens from here is anyones guess.

    NOVA Fence Sitter

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