Sunday, November 18, 2007

BubbleSphere Roundup

Posted by David at 12:41 PM

15 comments:

  1. AnonymousNovember 18, 2007 3:22 PM

    Its a shame about the problems with the market. If you people would just buy a house for current listings then more people would be better off. Because the peak sellers and builders are not the only one who should profit.

    ReplyDelete
  2. wannabuyNovember 18, 2007 11:16 PM

    The housing crash news link is a must read.

    I wish a few of my friends had read that before buying. Ghad... I found my sixth coworker who owns 5+ properties... and won't be able to afford to keep them all. Did everyone try to become a Trump?

    Got popcorn?
    Neil

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousNovember 19, 2007 12:40 PM

    Neil, that is when I new it was getting real bad. I had friends who were grade 13s and 14s who went out at got real estate licenses and started buying up places. They are F'd. They know it, they know I know it, so we just don't talk about it. One has a condo in dupont that they were able to get 2500$ a month for, only a 3-400$ loss. They actually bought it in 03 or 04, well before the peak. She happened to mention that it has been sitting vacant for 3 months, they have dropped the requested rent twice, and no takers. So much for rents not dropping in prime areas.
    Bob

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  4. AnonymousNovember 19, 2007 3:59 PM

    A great article came out recently in the Economist. This is a must read:

    http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10134077

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousNovember 19, 2007 7:25 PM

    Wannabuy's quote
    "Did everyone try to become a Trump?"
    Those who did overlooked the fact Trump has gone bankrupt in the past.
    Can the student outdo the teacher? As far as going bankrupt many might do just that.

    ReplyDelete
  6. AnonymousNovember 20, 2007 8:19 AM

    With yet another drop in stock on Monday due to mortgage credit problems, the question is, "How did we know years ago?".

    JOhn

    ReplyDelete
  7. AnonymousNovember 20, 2007 9:48 AM

    whatever, but not in my 'hood.

    great location will weather the storm. Watch and learn.

    ReplyDelete
  8. LanceNovember 20, 2007 10:03 AM

    John said...
    "With yet another drop in stock on Monday due to mortgage credit problems, the question is, "How did we know years ago?"."

    John, a lot of people "knew". Real estate is cyclical ... and so are economies. The better question is "Did you position yourself to be safe and snug in a place you call home?" A by products of the down side of economies is usually inflation of daily living costs including rents. Another is the reduction in one's savings (aka "downpayment") because of the drop in value in stocks in general ... both nominally AND due to the erosion effects of inflation. So, the question is, if you so it coming ... as many many of us did ...what did you do to ensure that over the long haul your housing costs were both predictable and within the constraints of your budget?

    ReplyDelete
  9. AnonymousNovember 20, 2007 11:32 AM

    Lance, please keep talking about economics. I really enjoy those posts.

    Also, don't forget to explain how the emergence of pan-global-nodes has resulted in a "new paradigm" where housing always goes up on your street.

    ReplyDelete
  10. AnonymousNovember 20, 2007 11:46 AM

    lance said
    "your housing costs were both predictable and within the constraints of your budget?
    "

    Lance, you did so well in the other thread when you started talking about inflation, and know you say this. You should read more. Well, did you know that major cities are facing huge budget short falls? Yes, this included DC, MD, and VA. Do to the reduced sales, assessments, and tax collections(foreclosures, etc) the revenue is dropping like a rock. So what does that mean? Well, they have to raise property taxes. So what does that mean. More people hurting, spending less, buying less, less taxes. Thus, they again must raise taxes or cut services. When they cut services, can you say ghetto?

    Listen, your house prices are anything but predictable. In the past it would have been a good guess, but now that we are facing one of the largest finanical problems are county has ever faced. I like my position better then yours.

    Read the news. Fannie/Freddie 15 billion in write offs. Looking for cash to stay alive. This is just the tip of the iceberg. You act like you are in the know, but, alas you are not. Some of my family does upholestry work for the real rich in this area. They now whats going on, they are proteted, you are not. You are the little guy, much like the rest of us. You don't know.
    Good luck with your interest only loan. Remember, inflation is the only friend you have and it seems the arabs have tied Bernakes hand on the inflation issue.
    Bob

    ReplyDelete
  11. wannabuyNovember 20, 2007 12:29 PM

    Bob,

    You described what I'm seeing every day. Every one of the ones who own five or more are still drinking the cool aide. No properties sell... "but the market will recover in..."

    All extracted their equity, so will have no choice to walk if rents don't go up in the next year. Most (not all) will see the dreaded resets next summer. One has a $250k payment for a beach house in Costa Rica due in six weeks. They were able to refi (but not sell) a property to make the payment. Bummer they kicked out their renter... oops. Makes me sad... but nothing I can do (and none of their properties appeal to me, so lets not go there).

    anon wrote:
    A great article came out recently in the Economist. This is a must read:

    http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10134077

    Everyone should read that. Look at the graph on mortgage tightening. That eliminates the unwanted competition. That graph show another 6 plus months of tighter credit at a minimum. Its only after sellers realize its truly a buyer's market will it be worth looking. That won't be until 2010 or 2011. :(

    Got popcorn?
    Neil

    ReplyDelete
  12. AnonymousNovember 20, 2007 1:59 PM

    Well Lance, since you asked me a specific question, "So, the question is, if you so it coming ... as many many of us did ...what did you do to ensure that over the long haul your housing costs were both predictable and within the constraints of your budget?"

    Here is my answer. Upon moving to the area, I decided to rent a 600,000 house in Loundoun county for $2000 a month, as it is where I work. I put more into my TSP to offset taxes and more into medical for lasic, pretax. After a year the landlord tried to raise the rent, I acually laughed out loud and told him I wanted it reduced. We setteled on no change in rent.

    As for the future, I am thinking of buying a house in Michigan for my son and family to live in. It would be a great deduction on taxes.

    ReplyDelete
  13. lanceNovember 20, 2007 3:42 PM

    "Lance, please keep talking about economics. I really enjoy those posts.

    Also, don't forget to explain how the emergence of pan-global-nodes has resulted in a "new paradigm" where housing always goes up on your street."

    Ha ha. What you bubbleheads don't understand is that housing may not always go up on my street, but it will definitely trend upward in the long run. Sure there may be a minimal decline here or there but I bought my home for the long-term investment. Plus I have the added security that my housing costs are locked in at a monthly payment I can afford, at least until the next time my ARM resets.

    When are you bubbleheads going to get it? There never was a housing bubble, prices never went up, they're not going to drop, and there are thousands of lawyers flooding the district everyday. They want to all live in Dupont because that is where the district's only Krispy Kreme is at. And we all know lawyers love donuts. Mmmmm.... donuts.

    ReplyDelete
  14. LanceNovember 20, 2007 5:35 PM

    Imposter 12:42 ... you gave yourself away again. Those posters who have been following know that I don't have an ARM ... Why do you enjoy misleadig your own co-horts? Does it make you feel more important than them? Incidentally, I've reported you to Google. You should be expecting a "knock on the door" any time now! :)

    ReplyDelete
  15. AnonymousNovember 24, 2007 9:57 AM

    Neil:

    This is your landlord. I want you out by the end of the month. Get your family together, pack-up your stuff, and go. Find somewhere else.

    Thanks,
    Landlord

    ReplyDelete

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