The National Association of Realtors® today named Lawrence Yun chief economist and senior vice president of research. Yun has served at NAR since 2000, most recently as vice president and senior economist.
“Lawrence is a talented economist and an outstanding forecaster who has contributed greatly to NAR’s growth and prestige as the leading advocate for the housing industry,” said Dale Stinton, NAR executive vice president and chief executive officer. “We are proud to have a man of Lawrence’s integrity and honor.
“He is a no-nonsense and level-headed analyst of the housing market who calls the data as he sees it, and has guided NAR with skill as chief spokesman for the past several months in a competitive real estate market. We have great faith and trust that Lawrence’s tenure will be a stellar one that will enhance NAR’s reputation as the most reliable and credible source of real estate research.”
Mr. Yun is not an 'outstanding forecaster;' his forecasts have been way off the mark. In September 2005 he predicted "The chance of a housing price decline in the DC area is close to zero, in my view. I anticipate that prices in DC will outpace the national average price growth. DC prices will rise at close to a 7 to 10 % rate of appreciation. " As we know priced have declined in the DC area since Yun's wrong prediction.
Posts
NAR's predictions have been proven wrong for at least the last 18 months. They will always say the market is better than it is because it is in their best interest.
ReplyDeleteThey eat their own $#!@ as you can see with Thomas M. Stevens' house can't even sell in 12 months. He is unable to judge the market and price right. Makes the whole organization look bad.
6) Statements that clearly are false will be deleted, unless it is clearly sarcastic.
ReplyDeletePer your rules Yun's future comments should be heavily redacted. ;-)
I don't think we have to worry about this guy anymore. The cat is out of the bag and has moved on to the mainstream media. Housing is heading back to where it belongs.
ReplyDeleteout at peak said:
ReplyDelete"They eat their own $#!@ as you can see with Thomas M. Stevens' house can't even sell in 12 months."
How do you know his intention is to sell it quickly and not to hold out for the highest and best offer he can get? When I was looking, there was a house I was interested in (owned by a Realtor/broker) who had had this house on the market for several years. It was his personal home and he was in no rush to sell ... just looking to get the most out of it he could. He'd even raised the price some $300,000 in the time he'd had it on the market. I made a "slightly under full price" offer and was turned down. I came back with a full price offer and was again turned down. He sold it six months later for only slightly more than the full price offer. Per my real estate agent, this broker was then ready to sell as a house he was having built for himself was ready to be moved in to.
Va_Investor has pointed out that BHs have a tendency to see everything through their eyes ... as if everyone was in the same situation. This broker was obviously not "needing" to sell ... keeping the house on the market so long ... and realizing an additional $300K+ gain on the house by doing so. Why isn't it possible for Stevens to be doing likewise. If he has no need to sell, it's a wise route to follow. When prices were going sky high, a lot of houses came on the market that hadn't been on the market prior. Now that prices have settled down, it's reasonable to assume that many of the people who might have thought of selling if prices had continued to escalate, may now jut hold on longer ... And that may be what Stevens is doing ... Putting out the "for sale" sign, and if someone bites ... fine, if not ... then also fine. There's always tomorrow ...
lance said,
ReplyDelete"How do you know his intention is to sell it quickly and not to hold out for the highest and best offer he can get? When I was looking...."
Umm, when you were looking, lance, it was during the height of the bubble craze stupidity. As the poster above said, that cat is out of the bag and the dynamics are much different now, no matter how much you cling to fantasy and wish it to be otherwise.
Poor Mr. Stevens. Carrying this white elephant for over a year while he poured money into his second white elephant just up the road. Meanwhile, zip 22066 avg. sale price dropped 16% & median dropped 20%, 2007 over 2006.
ReplyDelete"...tomorrow, tomorrow, there's always tomorrow..."
anon 6:02 said:
ReplyDelete"cling to fantasy and wish it to be otherwise."
Projecting, are we? It is you fantasizing that people must sell at any price and at any time.
There is an amusing discusion of this blog over on the big housing bubble blog.
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/2cn5tz
Some of our trolls are famous!
This just further confirms that there really are only a handful of these people out there trying to pump RE at this point.
"Projecting, are we? It is you fantasizing that people must sell at any price and at any time."
ReplyDeleteGood point lance, he probably didn't want to sell it quickly anyways? Why sell a house in a few weeks at a fair price when you can waste years trying to shoot for the moon... while paying to maintain and insure the house you are trying to sell.
I have done an extensive survey of sellers. Overall, when something is put up for sale, the seller wants to sell it. Now when I went to the grocery store they had $1.99 for tomatoes, I offered $0.99. They declined my offer! Then I offered $2.99 for said tomatoes. Once again they said NO, they would not do that either! So Lance is right, if you offer more than someone asks, they will not sell it to you.
ReplyDeleteIt is not uncommon for super high priced homes to stay on the market for a year or more - the market of potential buyers (with actual money to afford these places - not toxic waste loans) is very small, and thus not well developed.
ReplyDeleteThat said, since the home is vacant and he is now presumably carrying the cost of 2 places, all the evidence suggests he is at least a fairly motivated seller. My gut feeling is the guy is a bit delusional about prices and has yet to face reality.
anon said:
ReplyDeletePer your rules Yun's future comments should be heavily redacted. ;-)
ROTFL
My neighbor now knows the home he almost bought is worth a fortune less; he noted he saved more waiting on buying in a year than his income. If people like him believe home prices are going to drop, look out below. He's definitely not a bear.
Lance said:
How do you know his intention is to sell it quickly and not to hold out for the highest and best offer he can get?
In a declining market, holding out for a better offer only reduces ROI. Its not about how much money you make, its the ROI.
Prices have been clearly shown to be on a downturn.
From:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/03/AR2007110300151.html
Why volunteer for such a hassle when the local market is glutted with similar homes that you could purchase more easily? It's about money, of course. "I wouldn't bother unless the price is way lower than the market," said Bobby Samson, an agent with Samson Realty who focuses on the Route 28 corridor around Dulles Airport. He said the price would have to be 10 to 15 percent below market value just to catch buyers' interest. Hattip HBB.
Its starting to look like David's 6% to 13% prediction of price drops might not be aggressive enough. Realtors (tm) are wising up that only well priced properties sell. The easy money is gone. If only aggressively priced homes will make a profit for your Realtor (tm), guess what the only homes that will be shown?
Once upon a time most loans were conforming with its 29% DTI limit on PITI. Guess what, we're going back. :) Heck, it used to be jumbo had the lower DTI limit. Could we be back there soon?
Projecting, are we? It is you fantasizing that people must sell at any price and at any time.
Ummm... foreclosure rates? DTI? Bank losses? This has only barely begun.
Got popcorn?
Neil
lance's quote...
ReplyDelete"Va_Investor has pointed out that BHs have a tendency to see everything through their eyes ..as if everyone was in the same situation."
Are we to believe the housing bulls don't do the same thing?
Rose colored glasses tend to damage one's vision and one's financial health.
Fortune magazine has falling home price predictions for 25 different metro areas. Their prediction for the Washington, D.C. metro area? Down 25% over the next five years.
ReplyDeleteClick here to see their predictions.
james said...
ReplyDeleteFortune magazine has falling home price predictions for 25 different metro areas.
Interesting read. But there is no way Palm Beach county is only falling 27.2% with multiple years of inventory sitting empty! Mostly what I see is that they do not take into account price to income. (Nor the nation's pitiful savings rate.)
Vegas is seeing big layoffs, so that will further tank the prices.
Sacramento only down another 26%? Ummm... yea. Incomes couldn't support the rents. Not in the surplus quantities that will hit that market.
Don't even get me started on the -15% for the Inland Empire in CA...
Getting the idea of how national this bubble is? Also get an idea on how bad its going to be?
Keep your powder dry.
Got popcorn?
Neil
“Mr Yun is a paid shill who has lost his credibility. (from Lawrence Yun Watch)”
ReplyDeleteHe never had it to lose.
Haha! The former president of the National Association of Realtors can't sell his home! Here's the link.
ReplyDeleteYeah, no kidding the guys at THBB laugh at this site. Laughable is a kind word for it.
ReplyDeleteCNNMoney/Fortune are featuring an article "25 real estate markets poised to fall."
ReplyDeleteGuess what? Great Washington, D.C. 5-yr homeprice forecast:-25.1%
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/fortune/0711/gallery.real_estate.fortune/index.html
I wonder how Lance can spin this.
It simply won't happen in his neighborhood. Same thing for KH.
ReplyDeleteIt will happen everywhere else but not within 400 meters of their houses.
They have lucky neighbors.
ReplyDeleteIt will happen everywhere else but not within 400 meters of their houses.
ROTFL
Its different there. ;)
Anyone have a link on DC sales per week? I find DC one of the hardest markets to find information on. (That's usually a bad sign.) Many of the other markets provide much more information. (Although, quite a few are cutting off the data as it turns south.)
Heck, Ziprealty hasn't updated since July!
http://ziprealty.typepad.com/marketconditions/washington_dc_area_real_estate/index.html
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot? A home is the most expensive purchase of one's life. It should be done fully informed.
Its past time for an open MLS. One that records every home listed and every deed transaction (not just sales).
Forget being bearish, the fact that information is becoming difficult to find on the real estate market is scaring off a lot of potential buyers. I'm not saying having the information wouldn't scare them too... but its worse when left to their imagination.
Or is slowing sales my imagination. ;)
Got popcorn?
Neil
Bernanke Sees Slow Growth, Urges Congress to Act
ReplyDeleteBy Neil Irwin and Howard Schneider
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, November 8, 2007; 11:46 AM
Bernanke said that in excess of 2 million mortgages will be readjusted to higher rates by the end of next year, crimping homeowners who are already late or defaulting on their payments in record numbers. He suggested that Congress, for example, give final approval to a pending proposal to change Federal Housing Administration programs that help make mortgage loans available to people with middle to low incomes.
"In modernizing the FHA, the Congress might encourage joint efforts with the private sector that expedite the refinancing of subprime loans held by creditworthy borrowers facing resets," Bernanke said.
For every action there is a reaction. The Bubble Head theory is based on the faulty logic that the only reaction possible is a price adjustment. Not true. Pass the popcorn … the show has only just begun!
We don't have anything quite like the NAR here in the UK. People like Yun have their uses. They can be regularly relied upon to say something stupid, which helps focus attention on the idiocy of the housing bubble.
ReplyDeleteAny one else see the list of 25 tough housing markets on cnn.com?
ReplyDeleteD.C. made the list of course.
Greater Washington, D.C.
5-yr home price forecast: -25.1%
Heh, Lance now declares it will all be solved by giving schmucks who over extended welfare.
ReplyDeleteSo much for his "superiority of buyers" schtick.
For every action there is a reaction. The Bubble Head theory is based on the faulty logic that the only reaction possible is a price adjustment. Not true. Pass the popcorn … the show has only just begun!
ReplyDeleteI agree Lance! It will be interesting to bring all mortgages under federal guidelines (e.g., limit to 29% LTV).
The only action won't just be a price adjustment. That we can agree on. It still doesn't mean buy. There is a surplus of housing out there that cannot rent cash flow neutral (much less positive) at its previous purchase price.
But the indicators are all pointing to continued price drops. A major legislative change like this will take at least 90 days to become effective. That's a lot of price drop at the current rate.
lol
Got popcorn?
Neil
Put down the Koolaid and put on your critical thinking caps, BHs.
ReplyDeleteHere's the quote:
"Greater Washington, D.C. 5-yr home price forecast: -25.1%"
Greater Greater, Greater? Could that include Manassas, Dumfries, and Jefferson WV?
forecast: forecast, forecast? Isn't that like, a guess?
I'd be delighted if prices crashed. Honestly. I have cash in CD's that I could use to snag a rental. I wouldn't mind a nice tax cut either.
(I'm not betting on it happening.)
ukhousingbubble said...
ReplyDelete"We don't have anything quite like the NAR here in the UK. People like Yun have their uses. They can be regularly relied upon to say something stupid, which helps focus attention on the idiocy of the housing bubble."
Alternatively, they speak the truth and give a different perspective from that of those repeating just what they've heard. It's true that most people won't listen as they think "majority rule/opinion" must be right, but the few --- and intelligent --- will. And that makes it all worthwhile ...
Popcorn, popcorn, I love popcorn! And Yun is a complete moron! Is he using an AR regression to there predictions? How about an MA? What about an ARMA? Hey, Lance where is Larry Yun getting his forecasts from? Pulling them out of his A**, I suspect. Popcorn, popcorn, I love popcorn!
ReplyDelete"forecast: forecast, forecast? Isn't that like, a guess?"
ReplyDeleteNo, like a prediction based on the available data, but I wouldn't expect you to understand.
Clearly your neighborhood won't drop, and if it does! You can buy a rental!
You can't lose!!
Larry Yun is to economics what Larry from the 3 Stooges is to economics.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/01/AR2007110101700.html
ReplyDeleteQ: We currently have a 6.5 percent ARM on our home for the next 7 years. We tried earnestly to refinance in May 2007 for a fixed rate (we had a 20/80 arm set to adjust in 8/07) but this is the best we could get. We've never been late on any payments. When should we refinance?
Reed: It appears there may also be an equity, or some other problem. A 5/1 ARM shouldn't be higher than a prevailing fixed unless it's a jumbo mortgage. You may indeed want to sit tight with your current rate and concentrate on paying a little bit extra each month. Not sure where your property is located but within the next 7 years undoubtedly home prices will have more than recovered at that point.
Hahahahahahahahahaha....ohh that's rich!
From the BBC:
ReplyDelete------------------------------
The sudden tightening of credit on high-risk sub-prime mortgages has led to a property price crash in the US, with devastating effects on the whole economy.
The unprecedented decline in US house prices may also lead to further pain for financial institutions, who collectively own more than $1 trillion worth of sub-prime debt.
"This is the first time we have had an absolute decline in housing prices in the US since the Great Depression"
Richard Syron
Chairman, Freddie Mac
----------------------------
More evidence that this is a "normal cycle!"
Everyone go out and overpay for something!
Anyone else notice that the stock market is bustin'? This reminds me of 2000 and 2001 when people ran away from stock and into real estate.
ReplyDeleteOf course, someone who parked their savings in the market might not have as much for a down payment now.
Reminds you of huh?
ReplyDeletelol
kh said "I'd be delighted if prices crashed. Honestly. I have cash in CD's that I could use to snag a rental. "
ReplyDeleteIts like dollar cost averaging, but with houses... Too funny.
kh also said "Of course, someone who parked their savings in the market might not have as much for a down payment now."
Again, too funny. Anybody who thinks that realestate is about to tank should not have all of there money tied up in the market in one place. A well diversified portfolio with a good spread across the board does not notice a tanking market as much. However, if the market of all countries drop by 50%, every thing hurts. Just like when houses drop, everything hurts. If you havent noticed, the reason the market is dropping is because many of the investors are just starting to realize how bad the housing market is (aka financials) and what effect that is going to have on the economy.
So, if your point was to make fun of people saving there money instead of buying an overpriced house, you failed making that point.
I honestly wasn't going to post, because comment moderation is annoying and slows the bloggin process making communication impossible. But comments like these just cant go unchallenged.
bob
I assume everyone has already read about the CDO mess. Downgraded from AAA to CCC for that Carina CDO.
ReplyDeleteEvery analysis I've read on it implies this is the start of a major credit tightening cycle due to risk aversion.
In other words, greater down payments will be required and lower Debt ratios. So not to far in the future it will be a better buyer's market due to reduced competition.
But what's wrong with young families being able to buy an affordable home? That's how it was in the past and will be again soon. It angry at the younger generations and just want to stick it to them. Oh well, cest la vie.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Hey David, someone else is impersonating me! I'm the real anonymous. Whoever posted those other comments from "anonymous" is not me. It's probably "Bill" causing trouble again.
ReplyDeleteThat's right, kh. People are going to leave the stock market for the stability of real estate.
ReplyDeletekh said...
ReplyDelete"Anyone else notice that the stock market is bustin'? This reminds me of 2000 and 2001 when people ran away from stock and into real estate."
It's bustin' because of the problems in the mortgage market, which have really hurt financial companies which own mortgage-backed securities. Since the housing bust is causing the stock market problems, it is unlikely that a falling stock market will lead people to invest in real estate. Instead, it appears that investors are moving their money into commodities. Oil, gold, corn, wheat, & livestock, etc. are all going up. (This is also partly due to the falling dollar.)
However, today is not like 2000-2001 for one very important reason. The stock market is not nearly as overvalued today as it was back then. Back in March 2000, the average P/E ratio for the S&P 500 was 29.4. Today the average P/E for the S&P 500 is only 17.1.
If we go into a recession, then the stock market will probably fall. If we don't go into a recession, then the stock market will likely bounce back in a big way like it did in both 1997 and 1998.
nope, that cycle is done kh. Do some reading on investments cycles. We aren't going back to the stock market, and we aren't going back to real estate. It's hard assets time, oil, gold, silver, wheat . . . commodities!
ReplyDeleteI've never had any stock on the market for two years, sucker.
ReplyDelete"Anyone else notice that the stock market is bustin'? This reminds me of 2000 and 2001 when people ran away from stock and into real estate.
ReplyDeleteOf course, someone who parked their savings in the market might not have as much for a down payment now."
kh, I agree 100%. The stock market is bursting, and now people will run and invest their money in common everyday items that people need to live. This will cause massive inflation in everything from toilet paper to toothpaste. Yet home prices will not decline. You see, everyone that bought in the last 5 years will be benefitted by locking in their living costs before all this happens.
If you are interested in trends in N.VA., broken down by County or even zip code, I suggest the following two sites:
ReplyDelete1. mris.com/reports/stats
this site provides YOY ave. and median prices, units sold and days on the market.
2. virginiamls.com realty
click on "Today's Housing Inventory" at the top of the page. Market Trend Graphs are available for 9 counties/cities in NoVa showing trends from May of '04 thru Oct of '07.
You can see for yourself what the actual numbers are and how these numbers vary greatly by locale.
It appears to me that inventory is trending downward everywhere except Prince William.
I checked my zip code and both average and median prices are up YOY. I am not saying that this the ultimate method of analyzing the market going forward, but what else do we have that is superior?
Comments?
va.
ps - I hate the moderation. It effectively prohibits any useful debate.
IMPOSTER lance said...
ReplyDelete"Anyone else notice that the stock market is bustin'? This reminds me of 2000 and 2001 when people ran away from stock and into real estate.
Of course, someone who parked their savings in the market might not have as much for a down payment now."
kh, I agree 100%. The stock market is bursting, and now people will run and invest their money in common everyday items that people need to live. This will cause massive inflation in everything from toilet paper to toothpaste. Yet home prices will not decline. You see, everyone that bought in the last 5 years will be benefitted by locking in their living costs before all this happens.
November 10, 2007 9:09 AM
David, is there any way to keep people from impostering others? It's going to make your blog worthless if a true dialogue can't occur. The NOVA blog requires registration. Perhaps that would help>
I forgot about papereconomies' tool for using the case Shiller:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.papereconomy.com/CSI.aspx?id=CSXR|WDXR&yoy=all&showall=1
This is already far deeper than the "peace dividend recession."
That implies 4 years until the next uptick.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Uh...va? Inventory trends downward every winter, as casual sellers back off the slow winter market. Then it kicks back up heading into spring.
ReplyDeleteBeing the real estate genius you claim, one would think you knew that.
"It's bustin' because of the problems in the mortgage market,"
ReplyDeletePerhaps but the Dow and NASDAQ recent losers are the industrials, biomeds, techs.
Your theory on commodities is playing out around here. Produce and food, energy, oil, are all rising.
Rowhouses and other close in, multi-tenant houses, are efficient users of energy; the shorter commute and ability to shift to mass transportation, helps city dwellers, like, Lance.
Lance's quote,
ReplyDelete"The stock market is bursting, and now people will run and invest their money in common everyday items that people need to live. This will cause massive inflation in everything from toilet paper to toothpaste. Yet home prices will not decline. You see, everyone that bought in the last 5 years will be benefitted by locking in their living costs before all this happens.
November 10, 2007 9:09 AM
You forget, Lance, that if house prices do not decline but the cost of commodities go up, even more potential house buyers will choose to temporarily postpone buying a house due to inflationary costs. Notice I said temporarily postpone, not indefinitely postpone, due to the fact many house buyers took on mortgages they could not afford. As buyers who did not do their due dilligence and made sure they could afford the mortgage lose their houses, more and more houses will end up on the market, and an increase in supply leads to a decrease in demand and price. Why should a buyer rush out to buy a house from an owner or real estate agent when a buyer can get a foreclosed house that a bank is eager to get off their books? Buyers now realize it is a buyer's market, so they will take their time to buy when it is most cost effective for them.
As to the arguement inflation will help those who bought houses and locked in their living costs, the mortgage is NOT the only living cost associated in buying a house, there is the cost of heat, water, electricity, property taxes, all of these go up in inflationary times. Also, there are repair costs that must be done over the years, (roof repair, hot water heater repair or replacement, major appliance replacement, etc) as inflation goes up, these costs go up too making a house owner feel the pain of inflation more and more each year.
Renters of course are not immune to the effects of increasing inflation, but renters have the option to move to less expensive places to live, including renting a house that an upside down house owner is eager to rent out to cover all or part of their mortgage.
Inflation hurts everyone, renters and house owners alike, though renters have the ability to leave for lower cost places to live, while many house owners feel trapped in their money pit of a house.
va, I suggest you actually take a look at the data from the websites that you sited.
ReplyDeleteI love the note at the top of the virginiamls. "Inventory appears to have peaked" It's peaked!, It's peaked!!!, we're all saved, we can go back to 10% a year appreciation. Yeah!!!!
A couple of serious notes
1) Most of those graphs show a decent drop-off in inventory come Oct in previous years . . . the inventory this year seems pretty stable from Aug-Oct. We'll have to wait until Nov. data to see if the inventory drops as normal or stays roughly the same during the winter season.
2) Inventory doesn't mean squat without the other side of the equation . . . demand. Hmm supply AND demand make a market, whodathunkit.
3) That is why there is something called months of inventory, which better captures the picture than just supply. And month's of inventory clearly has not peaked YOY
4) You've got anywhere from 10 months of inventory to 24 months of inventory depending on the location
5) The outlying areas are getting hit pretty hard . .. DOWN ~15% average price in GPAAR
Time will tell whether the inner areas get hit as hard . . . one thing I think is pretty certain . . . we've still got a ways to go before it recovers.
"But comments like these just cant go unchallenged."
ReplyDeleteand, as before, they don't.
BHs, please. Repeating BH mantra is not contributing to the blog.
Mantra does not trump numbers or reason.
For example, this is BH mantra: "the reason the market is dropping is because many of the investors are just starting to realize how bad the housing market is (aka financials) and what effect that is going to have on the economy."
When you examine the Dow components, NASDAQ, S&P, it's biotech, tech, solid industrials that are leading the way down.
IBM is not a housing-financial but IBM is down more than 15% in the last month.
Saying, "A well diversified portfolio with a good spread across the board does not notice a tanking market as much." does not make it true.
The S&P fell from 1576 to about 1450 in the last month. That's a large annualized loss. The Nasdaq fell too, 2,861 down to 2,627.
Very possibly, a BH with a fine portfolio, say $100,000, lost $10,000 to $15,000 in the last few months.
kh said...
ReplyDelete"When you examine the Dow components, NASDAQ, S&P, it's biotech, tech, solid industrials that are leading the way down."
That's complete nonsense. Financials fell first and they've fallen the most.
Look at a one-month, three-month, or one-year chart of the S&P 500 (SPY), iShares Financial Sector (IYF), iShares Industrial (IYJ), and iShares Technology (IYW) ETFs, and you'll see that the financials have been hit the hardest. (There is no iShares biotech ETF.) The only way you get tech or industrials falling faster is if you look at the past week, but that's not leading, that's following.
Unless you've been living under a rock, you know that the financial sector troubles are due to sub-prime mortgages.
"IBM is not a housing-financial but IBM is down more than 15% in the last month."
ReplyDeleteMorgan Stanley and Wachovia are both down about 20% in the past month. Citigroup and Merrill Lynch are both down about 30% in the past month. E*Trade is down 58% in the past DAY.
Anyone who watches CNBC knows what is going on. The decline in the housing market has caused a sub-prime mortgage crisis, which has caused a credit crunch, which in turn risks damaging the rest of the economy.
I get the sense that "kh" is just a sockpuppet name for lance. His posts are every bit as brilliant.
That's right james, there's only one person who disagrees with the brilliance exhibited by a bunch of wannabe flippers who haven't figured out how to buy a home ... even with everything laid out right before them.
ReplyDeleteI think it was better without comment moderation. I do think everyone should be registered, however. David, if you do this I think that will eliminate the trolls and still allow for better debate and flow in the comments.
ReplyDelete"Morgan Stanley and Wachovia are both down about 20% in the past month. Citigroup and Merrill Lynch are both down about 30% in the past month. E*Trade is down 58% in the past DAY."
ReplyDeleteJames, no self-respecting BH would have their savings in Morgan, Wach, Citi, or ML. They might have it in IBM and similar and therefore would only lose 10 or 15% in the last month.
Please respect the wisdom of the BH.
From Lance # 06478851584973055533
ReplyDeleteI do think everyone should be registered, however. David, if you do this I think that will eliminate the trolls and still allow for better debate and flow in the comments.
November 13, 2007 6:21 AM
Heck of a lot of nerve to call someone a troll around here donchathink?
"James, no self-respecting BH would have their savings in Morgan, Wach, Citi, or ML. They might have it in IBM and similar and therefore would only lose 10 or 15% in the last month.
ReplyDeletePlease respect the wisdom of the BH."
I have no idea what point you are trying to make, except that you are trying to divert attention away from the fact that your numbers and reasoning were wrong.
I oppose the idea of requiring everyone to register.
ReplyDeleteJames, on Nov 9, I wrote,
ReplyDelete"Anyone else notice that the stock market is bustin'? This reminds me of 2000 and 2001 when people ran away from stock and into real estate."
"Of course, someone who parked their savings in the market might not have as much for a down payment now."
That's my response to the BH mantra that housing prices are plunging but they have wisely invested their down payment money. When real estate is done cratering, they'll take their investment money and buy wisely.
I used the example of IBM, the bluest of the blue chips, which fell about 15% in a month. Many other industrials also lost. In fact, the DJIA is off quite a bit in the last 30 days.
For some reason, you felt compelled to explain that, no-no, many stock fell even more.
There goes the old down payment, I guess.
Meanwhile, Lance's place and my place are still here, we still live in our places, and we don't intend to sell, so what do we care what happens.
Actually, KH, as a person who thinks there is a bubble, I moved my IRA portfolio three years ago to a 50% weight of Vanguard foreign stock funds. A year ago I shifted another 10% from the US to Suncor Energy, a pure play on the Canadian Tar Sands. And three months ago I sold my remaining Vanguard US Index funds and moved the entire mess to FXE, an exchange traded fund which is a pure play on the Euro.
ReplyDeleteSo I've actually made money in the recent downturn. About $10K last month. I just work out an investment plan based on the greed, venality, and short sightedness of the US Populace. For example, the continuing Fed Reserve policies to keep the housing asset bubble afloat (or deflating slower) via el cheapo money. Every rate cut by bail out Ben is music to my FXE/VEURX stake...devalue that dollar!
Eventually I'll sell FXE and buy back in on US financials, but I figure greed and venality, and bail out Ben will keep the hit on them off for months yet. Once the start announcing real losses will be the time to buy in.
But don't let reality get in the way of a good whine/rant KH! Its people like you and Lance, and your short sighted behavior that make for a winning investment strategy for me.
John said...
ReplyDelete"Actually, KH, as a person who thinks there is a bubble, I moved my IRA portfolio three years ago to a 50% weight of Vanguard foreign stock funds. A year ago I shifted another 10% from the US to Suncor Energy, a pure play on the Canadian Tar Sands. And three months ago I sold my remaining Vanguard US Index funds and moved the entire mess to FXE, an exchange traded fund which is a pure play on the Euro."
Why am I not surprised that you aren't only not invested in your community, but not even invested in your country? I guess you can just move away from the US anytime you want ... !
"I've actually made money in the recent downturn."
ReplyDeleteI accept that but most readers do not. The protocol on investment sites is to post your picks/trades ahead of time, not after the fact.
Using your argument and numbers, the majority of BH's have lost a sizeable portion of their stake. I do not believe that they are priced out for all time but you are close to saying that, unless they were as wise as you to invest in FXE/VEURX. What are the odds of that?
You've made the case for increasing valuations for REAL estate, albeit in inflated dollars.
Lance and I have not lost. As your BH friends pay you more and more for tar sand derived gasoline to drive their leased SUVs from rentals in Manassas, we'll continue to live modestly and efficiently close in.
It's interesting that 2 BH's, James and John, are stock market expert traders.
ReplyDeleteIf BH's can laugh off a 10 or 15% fall in the Dow Jones Industrials, then yes, don't buy a house. Keep trading and earning the bucks.
Those who can't make $10,000 in a falling market are the minority in BH circles.
KH,
ReplyDeleteWrongo. I make no such case. You are making an assumption that things are going to conyinue along the lines of the "Bubbles" Greenspan eeconomy under "Bail Out Ben". Ben would love to oblige and keep Lance, et al on welfare, but it ain't going to work long run.
If it was, I wouldn't have mentioned moving into financails in the near future. The financails wouldn't be cleared and driven down in price.
Put simply, "Bubbles" Greenspan kept shifting wealth into ever greater bubbles. Stocks to housing back to stocks. But reality is intruding. Not gonna work again...just as it stopped working in Japan, and they moved into a decade of nothing. You can only make money so cheap, or inflate your way out before it all goes boom. We're going boom.
No more asset bubbles. Including real estate. My bet is on some form of stagflation, where we have commodity inflation due to energy and raw material costs. This in turn will kill consumer spending. Simple macro economics...unless we manage to convince the Chinese and Indians to give up on an increased standard of living, its unavoidable.